Steve Sailer: BLM, Karens, Donald Trump, and What Democrats Don’t Want You to Know about DEI

Here's the episode. So I got to say, it's a little weird to be sitting across from you in my barn. I was thinking this morning, you're almost like Matt Drudge used to be. Everyone read the Drudge Report starting in the 90s, but no one wanted to admit it in the news business, but everybody read it. But Drudge himself was this mysterious figure, actually knew him sort of.

I've never met you. Everybody I know on both sides has read you for years. You're not crazy. You're not a bigot. But somehow you became a sort of mysterious outlaw figure that no one was allowed to meet or talk to.

Is it weird to be out in public?

But for the next decade, every time I'd be invited to a conference and about six weeks later, I'd get an email, well, it turned out. the SPLC or Media Matters, went to the hotel and said that this is just deplorable. And you might find also that the local Antifa, the Black Bloc guys, were thinking about protesting and how that can turn into violence and so forth. So they canceled their contract. So, you know, I just kept writing.

But all of a sudden the ice started to break up. maybe last year. And this year I've been traveling around the country and meeting people who've been reading me for years or just started reading me. It's a lot of fun. I appreciate it.

S. Like, for three years now, I've been raising a stink about, all right, what was the impact of Black Lives Matter on black lives? And as far as I can tell, it's got Black Lives Matter during the two eras of triumph after Ferguson in 2015,, 16, and then the big one during the Floyd effect, the racial reckoning of the 2020s. They've got an incremental 15 to 20,000 extra black lives murdered through incremental homicides versus the baseline, or just splattered on the pavement through increased traffic fatalities.

We talk about mass shootings a lot, but, as the New York Times did, a big study in 2016 and concluded that almost 75% of the mass shootings with at least four victims, wounded or killed take place in black-on-black events, typically a Saturday night at the club or a funeral.

Some of them are organized crime, very strategic, like in the TV show The Wire, but a lot is just. one guy disses another guy and people pull out guns and start shooting. And yet that's of very little interest to the democratic establishment, the need for what I call point-of-use gun control. The Democrats tend to obsess over the need for point-of-sale gun control to keep rednecks out in the country from buying rifles, legally buying rifles at Walmart. And in truth, what we've seen, like in the 1990s into the 2010s in New York City, where people like Giuliani, Bloomberg, and Bratton did a great job of bringing down the murder rate, what really works is point-of-use gun control.

You discourage lowlifes from packing their illegal handguns when they go out because they're more worried about the cops and getting caught carrying an illegal piece, so they leave it up in their grandmother's attic, stuffed away, and the fewer people who are carrying guns on the streets in New York City, the less often they pull them out and start shooting, and you get this virtuous cycle. But nobody understands that, so during the great awokening of the last decade, and especially during what used to be called the racial reckoning before the whole George Floyd thing, has pretty much gotten memory hold lately, just huge increases in the black deaths by murder and by car crash.

It's been almost exactly four years since that happened, Memorial Day 2020.

. With the benefit of some time to think about it, what was that?

We are pulling them over for ticky-tack things like speeding and not having registration on their car and just driving badly. And then we're checking for outstanding criminal warrants and maybe searching for illegal handguns. This is all incredibly discriminatory. So the cops went, oh, okay, you don't want us to do that? All right, we'll be in the donut shop.

And so the number of traffic stops dropped way down. So people started driving worse, they drove faster, and they started carrying illegal handguns more. And the number of shootings, the number of homicides, just went through the roof just immediately. I can show week-by-week data from the Center for Disease Control. It's pretty astonishing.

And the word quickly got around that you can do anything you want in the neighborhood and nobody's going to notice. And so all sorts of vengeance was just taken on random people out there for personal reasons. And then it just went on and on for several more years. Fortunately, last year or so, the murder rate started finally to come down.

Let's take a look at the CDC's data weekly.

All right. The Center for Disease Control collects data weekly on all the deaths in the United States. You can ask for any one particular thing. So this is weeks from 2018 into 2023.. The blue line indicates the beginning of COVID lockdowns.

The black line is George Floyd's death. All right. The red line is the number of African Americans who died by homicide that week. So it's bouncing around. It has some seasonality in 2018, 2019..

George Floyd dies and suddenly, boom, it goes to this enormous peak and then just slowly fades over the next.

four years into 2023.

There was just a giant cultural revolution and basically people lost fear of the cops, because everybody, the establishment, the media, the politicians were telling America that we have too much policing and too much law and order. And so we got a lot more murder. It's kind of ironic, because the name of the movement was Black Lives Matter and it wound up getting an enormous number of black lives murdered, incremental versus what you see in 2019..

But the big part of it is that it also applies to motor vehicle accident deaths. So you could see this pretty consistent level. African Americans have traditionally been not bad drivers. They don't have the kind of problem with driving traditionally the way they had with homicide. But boom, a new plateau that's endured ever since.

And to put this in a longer term historical perspective, let me.

find graphs of the CDC data monthly going back to 1999 through 2021.

These are homicide deaths as opposed to murders perpetrated. So these are the races of victims, and blacks, Hispanics, whites and blue. Well, that is quite a spike. You can see 9-11 there. That's what it is.

3,000 Americans died by homicide at the hands of Al-Qaeda. OK. And then most years you've got, yeah, you've got. more people get murdered in summer than in winter. They're out partying and so forth.

But it's pretty consistent. You can see an increase over here in the Ferguson effect after Black Lives Matter emerges in 2014,, which was a pretty decent year. And then all of a sudden, murders go up dramatically in 2015-16.. That helps get Trump elected. You might remember how Black Lives Matter terrorists were assassinating cops in Dallas and Baton Rouge and so forth.

Although that's really been memory hold. Anyway, Jeff Sessions came in, kind of told the police departments, no, you know, we're not going to persecute you for doing your jobs. All right. Then Trump got rid of Sessions. Maybe murder started going up a little more.

And then comes 2020 and the George Floyd racial reckoning. It's just enormous increase compared to anything else in the 21st century. Now, one reason we don't hear about this is because these graphs are kind of embarrassing, because the black line of homicide death rate is so much higher than the light brown Hispanic line. there. Hispanics actually, in the 21st century, have done a pretty good job of lowering their rate of being murdered.

And finally, though, when the racial reckoning came along, it got worse again. So we're losing a bunch of that progress. The blue line is the white line. down there. It's an order of magnitude below the black line.

And it's considered really bad taste to notice, you know, differences in the homicide rate. The other thing, what I point out is motor vehicle deaths. Motor vehicle deaths per capita, this isn't per mile driven, weren't too bad. They didn't have big racial differences in the past. The whites in the blue line often had the worst.

Blacks weren't bad. Hispanics weren't good. But then, after 2008,, Hispanics actually got better. And the brown Hispanic line is doing pretty good until the racial reckoning. But you can see, the black line just went through the roof again compared to the rest of the 21st century.

So what's happened is during the Great Awakening, during the era of Black Lives Matter, what we see is that deaths, two different kinds of deaths, homicides and car crashes, what I call deaths of exuberance, in contrast to Case and Deaton's deaths of despair, seem to have gotten highly correlated. When Black Lives Matter is winning, people, especially black Americans, die more deaths of exuberance until Black Lives Matter goes out of fashion again and the cops are allowed to, like, pull over bad drivers and check for illegal handguns. So does anybody know that? No, it's hardly caught on at all. I mean, part of the problem is because I discovered in 2021, then if you're a social scientist, you want to write a paper for an academic journal, it's kind of like either, well, either I cite Steve Saylor, but I might get canceled for citing this horrible crime thinker, or I don't cite him and then his followers on Twitter all get real mad at me for not citing him.

Here's my view. Just go ahead. Don't cite me. Just get the word out there. It's more important that America know about how badly it's screwed up, how many tens of thousands of incremental Americans have died because America's elites get infatuated with Black Lives Matter now and then than it is for me to get publicity about it.

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So,

There were a lot of motives for Black Lives Matter. One was that America had gotten better after the 1990s, after the crack wars at policing, that the drugs that were driving crime were not particularly marketed to inner-city blacks, the opioids, the oxycodone, and so forth. Even when the Mexican cartels started selling black tar heroin, they also focused, like the Sackler family, on, like, you know, who are a bunch of people. if they drop dead, nobody's going to care? And that's like, eh, white people in small towns in Kentucky, that kind of stuff.

So, you had this big rise in deaths of despair.

And then, a couple weeks later, he and his wife published this important paper saying, you know, if you look at the CDC data, life expectancy for white working class people without college degrees has been dropping in the 21st century, and it's not supposed to happen. And it seems to be overdoses on painkillers. It seems to be suicide. It seems to be alcoholism, just deaths of despair.

America has a phobia about anybody speaking up for the emerging white minority. The conventional wisdom is that whites are rapidly being turned into a minority, and that's a good thing, but we're not going to ever treat whites like the minority that they're becoming in multiple states across the country. We're going to treat them as the all-powerful, omnipotent legacy majority who can be blamed for everything from now on.

dog whistle. that will lead to slavery and the Holocaust and all sorts of imaginings. And the other half of the white population wasn't suffering. You know, the kind of people who don't have a bad back because they don't lift heavy things on the job, you know, they're not hooked on oxycodone. or when prescriptions got tightened up, they didn't go over to Mexican heroin and then to fentanyl and so forth.

So, you know, who cares? We're just talking about deplorables here.

A. don't like the voting patterns of the population you're describing, but they are human beings and Americans. And if they're going extinct or they're dying in huge numbers in any case, to ignore that or downplay it is evil, isn't it?

something like an incremental 15,000 to 20,000. more Blacks have died in car crashes and murders than if the baseline of a few years ago had been maintained. And that's just enormous. That's easily the Black death total in Vietnam, maybe Vietnam and Korea put together.

And people should be talking about that, too, because African Americans are our fellow American citizens and we ought to be like keeping an eye on them and not refraining from noticing just because it's embarrassing, just because.

. Who's it embarrassing to? Elites, the propounders of the conventional wisdom, the respectable prestige press, academia, the Democratic Party and so forth, that they promoted all of this stuff. They took Black Lives Matter at face value and did very little investigation. I mean, basically, you weren't anymore allowed to ask the question.

like, OK, Blacks, men tend to get shot by the police about two to three times as often as white men per capita. That's a big difference, but it's nowhere near as big a difference, as Blacks tend to get shot by each other about 10 times as much as whites get shot by each other. And probably Blacks get shot by non-police whites dozens of times less often than they're shot by other Blacks. Young Black men in this country have an enormous homicide problem, a gun homicide problem. I looked up for males age 15 to 34, their death by gun homicide in 2022..

And Blacks, young Black men, died about 50, not 15, but 50 times more per capita by gunfire than young Asian men, 24 times more than young white men, and six times more than Hispanics. The Hispanics are fairly comparable in poverty rate and education and so forth, but they don't have anywhere near the kind of gun problem that African-Americans have developed. And I think, but is anybody out there asking young African-Americans and telling them, you know, if you guys could not get your homicide rate down to the Hispanic level, if you could get it down halfway from where it is now to the Hispanic level, this country would be so much better off and race relations would be so much better. But, you know, you're not supposed to put crime statistics like that in the newspaper. It's just considered, you know,

is enthusiastically assisted by other forms of the establishment, such as the prestige, press, academia, much of the corporate world as well. The Democrats have realized over the last few decades that they could be, that America is becoming more diverse.

Immigration is driving diversity, patterns of interracial marriage, more people who have some claim to be non-white. Also, there's the constant generation of new identities, such as, in the last decade, transgenderism.

So, as America becomes more diverse, the Democratic Party can profit by being the party of diversity, the party of the diverse, the party of people from the fringes of American society, the party of people that the Democrats would call the marginalized from the margins of American society. So, you're talking about immigrants, you're talking about black church, ladies, transgenders,

Jews, Muslims, etc.

, etc. Now, the one problem with all this is that, while it works pretty well on paper, and the Democrats have managed to win the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections, the problem is keeping this coalition of the fringes of the marginalized from turning on each other, from becoming a circular firing squad. Because a lot of the components have very little in common. Yeah. As we're seeing with Jews and Muslims right now, it's, you know, these people do not like each other.

Do the black church ladies, who were the steadfast Democrats, do they really get along that well with the gays, much less with the transgenders? Nah. Do the Asian immigrants have much in common with Hispanic immigrants? Nah, not really. It can go on and on.

It's inherent in the Democrats' grand strategy to be the party of diversity, the party of the fringes of American society. So, how can they unite their coalition of the margins? And one strategy the Democrats have come up with is basically to foster a racist animus against core Americans, people who, you know, basically are demographically somewhat like George Washington, Ben Franklin, John Adams, you know, that are white, that are men, that are straight, maybe they own homes, maybe they're married, they have kids.

And to make them the bad guys in the American narrative. And that's the only thing the Democrats and their colleagues in academia, etc., can think of to hold together this diverse coalition. So, we've seen this enormous increase in just racist bigotry being expressed in the pages of the New York Times in this century, things that in the past would have been considered rather in poor taste and extremist. So, the New York Times has put in a lot of effort in recent years explaining the racist, sexist slur of Karen as this anti-white woman, racist.

slur to their millions of subscribers so that they know just the right time to use it, and they make sure not to use it on any non-white Karens, and so forth. You recently had on...

anti-white racism in the respectable press, and in media, and the Democratic speeches, and so forth. And you know, it's finally starting to backfire on Democrats. People are starting to notice just just how much awful stuff is said about kind of the core Americans that tend to vote Republican. So I don't know. I mean, have you been seeing this just over the last 10 years, just huge increases and putting down white people?

There's so many, like. the contradictions in that sentence are so inherent that it's hard to believe anyone could utter it. But no, of course I noticed that. And I guess what I'm really struck by, and I don't know the answer, is why people put up with it. So at that point, it's like, well, you know, like if you're attacking my children for their skin color, then I get my gun, right?

But nobody does get his gun. They just sort of sit there and say, OK, I can't say anything. Why would anyone ever put up with that? I mean, white Americans. go out of their way.

So, yeah, Republicans, whites, have been reluctant to call out just anti-white racism for what it is. But why is that? I mean, clearly something.

inherently unreasonable, right? You don't choose your race. Therefore, you publish an attack on the basis of his race. It's totally anti-American, as defined by consensus over the last 60 years. That's one thing we're not allowed to do.

And yet it's done at greater scale now than during the Jim Crow period. So, like, why would you even consider putting up with that? There must be something wrong with you. Like, you, hate yourself, obviously.

You know, my son's friends on his high school football team, they're not bigoted racists. And the truth is, yeah, a lot of them aren't. I mean, a lot of this stuff is coming out of colleges and so forth. It's kind of soft degree majors and so on. But, you know, taking claims to have some deep intellectual heritage is naive.

It's just people with soft majors who got DEI sinecures and so forth in corporations and colleges, you know, just expressing their basic prejudices, their basic bigotry. And, you know, we should be laughing at it. We shouldn't be taking it that seriously. We should be satirizing it and scorning it and making jokes about it. And that could well get.

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wherever you get your podcasts. It's America on Trial with Josh Hammer.

In 1955, a 14-year-old black child named Emmett Till was murdered for making.

pretty aggressive paths toward a white woman in the South. All right.

By, I think, 2018, they were mentioning him something like one and a half times a week, about as often as Chief Justice John Roberts. Not really. The name appeared in the New York Times. It just became this huge breaking news story. I joke that they had a jet at LaGuardia fueled up, always ready to fly to anywhere to report on the latest Emmett Till news.

All right. This kind of antiquarianism is increasing, because, I mean, the truth for liberals is the liberals have been pretty much in charge of most things involving race since the 1960s. And they haven't really accomplished that much, so they kind of want to hide their record and focus people on pre-Civil Rights antiquities, such as Emmett Till. Or you constantly hear these days about FDR's redlining of FHA loans in 1938 as the reason that Black neighborhoods tend to have lower property values than White neighborhoods or Latino or Asian neighborhoods. And it couldn't have anything to do with current crime rates.

It couldn't have anything to do with discipline in the local schools. It's got to do with the nefarious plot of FDR.

in almost 90 years ago.

Yeah, it's, yeah, what then ends up is you then have, you end up getting a long lecture about how the construction of a freeway in 1958 destroyed the booming Black Wall Street of Birmingham or whatever, and all sorts of things like that. There's a large number of pre-canned excuses.

It's about 11% Black and 20% Hispanic, and it has the highest Black and Hispanic test scores in the United States. Really? And the smallest white-Black gap in the country. And other places, the great liberal cities like San Francisco and Madison, Wisconsin, tend to have bigger gaps, not just because they have a lot of smart white people living there, but they do a lousier job in San Francisco educating Blacks because it's such a liberal, progressive environment that they do a poor job of doing things like having well-disciplined schools and focusing on basics and so forth.

So, yeah, there's a general, I mean, there's been a general trend toward Blacks who have some choices in life, who are looking to get ahead, looking to do good things for their kids, to be moving to the South, to Texas, to red states and so forth, where they can, and away from the highly liberal parts of the country. It's not a panacea, but yeah, it does some good at the margin.

We're hopefully past the worst of the racial reckoning. What I've noticed in the newspapers was that the front section, around a few months before the 2022 election, seemed to get the word from maybe the Biden White House that, like, you know, this whole George Floyd racial reckoning thing, that's not going to be a big vote winner in the 2022 midterms, especially in the New York City area. So let's go easy on it. Let's not talk about it all the time. Maybe it wasn't such a good idea.

And then it just disappeared from the serious news part of the paper. In the cultural section in the back, they never got the memo. So there's constantly discussions about how, okay, in a great leap forward for equity at the Art Institute of Chicago, they fired all the nice white lady docents who work for free giving tours of the great artwork so they can hire people of color and pay them to work there and stuff like that. And you kept hearing all those kinds of stories going on much longer about the wonders of the racial reckoning, because, you know, they hadn't gotten the message. But yeah, probably the Biden administration.

engaging in benign neglect about, like, you know, let's not persecute police departments quite as hard as we were, has probably done some good about getting the cops out of the donut shop and actually pulling over, you know, people driving 100 miles an hour.

And so, yeah, that's made some progress. But it took the Hispanics a while longer to get the word that the cops weren't being proactive. And so their car crash and murder rates have gone way up. And, you know, even if things are getting better now, they're going to take a number of years to get back to where we were in 2019, much less where we were before Ferguson in 2014.. You know, the death rate is still up, like in these deaths of exuberance, like 30 to 40 percent over 2014.

And way up over.

You know, at this point, cities have done, you know, we went through a bunch of phases. We liberalized the country in the 60s and the Warren court years. We cut the imprisonment times and so forth. And that wound up doubling the per capita murder rate. in the 60s and 70s.

It doubled? Yeah, it was by 1980.. It was twice what it was in 1961 per capita.

And they, when it started to integrate, they joined a liberal Catholic group and said, okay, we're all going to stick it out and make integration work. And we're not going to flee to the suburbs. And my in-laws stuck it out three years longer than the rest of the members of the club did. But by that point, the number of felonies against their children was piling up. And so they finally sold out, at a loss of like half of what they could have gotten for their house if they'd sold it three years before.

Tens of millions of people.

My late father-in-law was the tuba player for the Chicago Lyric Opera. So he ended up buying a farm 63 miles out of town and then commuting to work to play the tuba in the opera house downtown.

It was kind of a disaster for them. And, you know, there's tens of millions of Americans who are still alive who can tell these stories of what actually happened. And the media is not that interested in hearing them. The media wants to portray these people as the bad guys who, because of their bigotry and not because of all the felonies against their children, moved out to the suburbs. Interestingly, right across the street from where my in-laws lived is the municipality of Oak Park, Illinois, a suburb that Ernest Hemingway supposedly said was the land of broad lawns and narrow mines.

But it's really nice, has all this great Frank Lloyd Wright architecture. They actually did something really intelligent and really illegal in the 1970s, which was they put a racial quota on real estate agents. It was called the Black-a-Block Club and said, no, you can't make a huge, fast windfall by terrifying everybody into selling right now because the whole block is going to tip black. We're going to do this in an orderly fashion and we're going to use a racial quota. And it worked.

It kept Oak Park from going all black the way the Austin neighborhood next door has gone. And Austin just is bleak. It's kind of post-apocalyptic looking now. And Oak Park looks kind of like this gay utopia for older gay couples who like fixing up beautiful Frank Lloyd Wright houses. So, you know, liberals did some things to protect themselves, but they just didn't tell anybody about it.

You know, there's all sorts of talk, you know, Mayor Pete in the transportation department's always denouncing racist roads, that building highways was destroying black neighborhoods and so forth. You know, we've rewritten the past over and over again. So we don't learn anything from it, because we just we just specify a few important, a few things that fit this narrative that everybody has now.

So, you know, we'll see. I mean, the obvious goal is what they call equity. And the term equity is one of those words. It's not a secret. what the DEI people want when they specify equity.

What they're talking about when they're talking about equity and generational wealth and so forth is they want your equity in your home and they want to tax it away and take it for as reparations and spend it on themselves. And that's that's kind of the the bottom line, whether that'll get carried out. I don't know. We've, we've seen reparation programs start to put out checks in super liberal places like Evanston, Illinois, even in California. The idea of handing out huge checks to black people for the horrors of living in California didn't go that well.

We have two larger Hispanic population.

What do you call it when the government condemns your property and sells and buys it for what it thinks it's worth? We've seen cases. Eminent domain. Yeah. Eminent domain cases from a century ago.

we saw. So, if you, if, if you're black and you happen to have a family legend that we used to own this really nice piece of property, but then it got eminently domain to make into a park, that that was racist and we should get that property back. So the descendants of a black family in Manhattan Beach recently, who, uh, Manhattan Beach had had, uh, condemned their property and a few other and some white neighbors of theirs to build a park. And they recently got the city council to declare that that was racist in 1928. And that if it wasn't for this, they no doubt would have held on to the property through the depression, through everything that's happened ever since.

They would, they would have scrimped and saved to hold on to that land next to the beach, which is now worth $20 million. So they got a check for $20 million, uh, for that. Uh, you, you'll see, you know, this is a general trend, that's, that's speeding up as, uh, uh, you know, plaintiffs, attorneys, are looking for these old cases and, you know, it's not like they can relitigate the case because there's nobody alive that remembers that can testify or anything like that. Um, so there'll be, there'll be lots of attempts like that, to, you know, basically, hand out large amounts of money and, um, and maybe, maybe it won't be called reparations, but, uh, but you'll see this, and it's, it's definitely been increasing in the 2020s. But doesn't demographic change?

but that's not the country that we're in right now. And it definitely is not the country we're going to be in in 10 years, which is going to have a Hispanic majority, a white minority, and then a much, much, much smaller black minority. So I just wonder if the Hispanic majority is going to be.

a possibility. And, and the, the establishment is working hard on that to, to inculcate in the public schools that Emmett Till was the most important figure of the 20th century. Um, they're, they're working very hard to keep together the democratic coalition of the fringes by pointing at these horrible white men who were the enemy and who also have all the generational wealth. and keep your eye on the prize, eyes on the prize, which is other people's money. Yeah.

Other people's money. It's, it's white people's home equity, basically in stocks of, you know, baby boomers are dying. Uh, they're leaving their, they want to leave their property to their kids. This is a vast turnover of wealth. We need to get our, our hands on some of this.

Um, another question might be, you know, how, how big is the African immigration gonna going to be? If you look, go to look at the border, there's all sorts of people showing up from Mauritania, all sorts of places, you know, in recent years, all over the world, the fertility rates are plummeting, except they're still way above, uh, uh, re reproduction rate in, in most of Africa. Right. And, uh, it's not, people know how to get out of Africa. Now you get a smartphone, it gives you all the instructions and so forth.

So, you know, why not move somewhere nicer? And, you know, so, the, so the country could well be, um, you know, I mean, Europe's getting much more African and probably, and America is too at this point. Um, the, the, uh, descendants of American slaves are losing out on their affirmative action, and so forth. I mean, 20 years ago, um, uh, uh, to Harvard. African-American studies professors pointed out that a huge fraction of the affirmative action spots at Harvard seem to be reserved either for foreign elites whose parents are, you know, foreign minister of Ghana or something like that, or, or, or have one white parent, or like in the case of the Obama family, it's now a three-generation Harvard family, both, uh, privileges and, you know, not many positions at Harvard go to, uh, descendants of American slaves.

the way, you know, Michelle Obama is clearly, uh, you know, highly legitimate descendant of American slaves and Barnack, man, not at all.

Um, but yeah, that's, we're going to see, we'll see that. I mean, American corporations, they want, if, if they have to meet DEI quotas, uh, they tend to prefer, uh, immigrants for the jobs, or people, maybe, who are raised by their white mothers or something like that. So, uh, we'll, we'll, we'll see where, where this all leads.

Well, actually, let me just take a step back. You, um, became famous to the extent that you were famous in sort of a Samizdat kind of way in 2016, for calling that election with some, with some accuracy based on looking at the demographics. Tell us about your predictions.

And that's what the Latino voters, or future Latino voters, will, will, they'll love us for that, for bringing in fellow Latinos. And then they'll all switch to voting Republican, especially for the Bush family, which, you know, that, uh, Jeb's son, uh, George P. Bush is half Mexican. And so there's a future. as the United States and Mexico demographically merge, the Bush dynasty of wasps and Mexicans will carry on as the natural ruling class of a, of a increasingly mestizo North America.

Uh, and that's, that wasn't too implausible, but I kept asking questions like, do, do Latinos really care, and that much about immigration policy? Are you sure they really want all their cousins from back home to be moving in with them? Uh, the one close Latino state is Florida. And do the Cubans in Florida really care about Mexicans, illegal alien Mexicans? I haven't noticed that.

And I kept saying, you know, an awful lot of Latinos are in California and that's never going to go Republic again. And the others are in Texas in large numbers. And if that goes, if that's up for play, then the Republican party's in really big trouble. So wouldn't it make more sense, looking at the electoral college map, to go, well, look, there's all these great lakes states, the Rust Belt. And one of the things you see there is that the white working class isn't anywhere near as Republican as they are in the South.

And they're actually really close in the electoral college, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. So why not do things for the white working class in the North and such as, uh, limiting immigration so that, you know, they can continue to be paid pretty well, uh, and focus on them. And yeah, that's, and the Republican establishment kept going on with the Hispanic, uh, plan. That was the big 2013 audit that convinced Marco Rubio that we need amnesty and so forth. Uh, but I kept saying, eh, you know, the way you went in the electoral college is these, is these Rust Belt states around the Great Lakes.

Did Rove not see that?

Uh, he'd, I mean, for his loyalty to the Bush dynasty, I really think George P. Bush, uh, played a huge role in the Bush family's thinking that because Jeb had married into a Mexican family, that this gave the Bushes, out of all the WASP dynasties in the United States, the greatest chance to exploit, uh, the immigration, wave from Latin America and be the natural rulers of, um, of a Mexicanized population. I mean, uh, George H.W. Bush had 10-year-old George P. Bush read the Declaration of Independence at the 1988 Republican convention, which was a big deal.

because, because, uh, the Democratic candidate had been unenthusiastic about the Pledge of Allegiance and so forth. So, you know, um, George H.W. was putting his, what do you call this, little brown one up there on national television. The LBO. Yeah, to get that started.

So, um, so yeah, it made sense to Rove, um, you know. You get the sense that the more you listen to.

You know, yeah, he won,

But, you know, the Republicans weren't, didn't, you know, didn't have a whole lot of people who crunched numbers and spreadsheets. So, in the first decade of the century, I spent a lot of time analyzing spreadsheets and so forth of election totals and going, you know, it looks like there's a different path here. And it really runs through the north central region, where white working class people vote about 50-50, Republican and Democrat, and you can get that up to 55-60 percent. You know, you can, you can win a lot of electoral votes. So, did, did Trump, uh, read my 2000 article?

Nah, but what else was he going to do? That was, that was the one path to the presidency. You know, it almost worked again in 2020, under pretty adverse circumstances. So, will it work this time?

I don't know. I've got, I've given up making predictions. I mean, people, people came along like Nate Silver, who just were so much more interested in predicting elections and worked so much harder at it. That was like, eh, I don't have that gambling instinct that Nate does. And, you know,

I'm going to, I'm going to retire from making predictions. I'm not, I don't see myself as a great forecaster of the future. What I try to be is a historian of the present and notice things that are happening right now. So, what is happening with Hispanic voters? Um, in, in Texas,

in Texas, it definitely seemed like the racial reckoning of 2020 when the, when the Democrats went basically nuts over Blacks, alienated quite a few Texas Latino Democrats. In California, less clear.

Does it even matter? I mean, California's not much of a democracy. at this point. It doesn't matter. It's helpful in Texas in that the Republican, Republicans will basically lose the White House forever when Texas flips blue.

Uh, the good news in Texas is that basically they have a pretty, they have a pretty strong, loyal, steadfast Republican white of population. A lot of the advantages of Texas are that they're not tied into guilt over the South. They were a Confederate state, but they don't care about that. They care about the Alamo. They've got this whole national narrative and it, it helps keep them together and they provide strong leadership for Hispanics.

and Hispanics are less, you know, domineering than people were talking about in the past. They're kind of look around at their upper middle class neighbors and go, Oh, okay. What do you, what do you do? Oh, you're a Republican. Okay.

That sounds pretty cool. I might be a Republican too. California, you know, the upper middle class is, is Democratic. So the Hispanics follow that lead. Um, so I can't tell, you know,

Um, you know, it's, if, if, can the Republicans keep some competent, uh, higher brow people around, you know, that's another question. What do you think? I mean, a big, a big question is how much is this totally a, uh, a hit Trump's personality? I mean, you know, 2020, 2024, it looked like Ron DeSantis had, like, studied Trump and said, okay, Trump's got some interesting new ideas and post Romney ideas. And I'm the competent, uh, well-educated guy who reads all the fine print.

And I can, I can implement some of these, and that didn't seem like a bad pitch. Uh, but just when it didn't go over at all, you know, as soon as the Democrats started, started arresting Trump for all sorts of charges,

then, you know, that, that helps solve the democratic nightmare that the Republicans were going to nominate, uh, a competent 40 something to run against their octogenarian cumpet. And so now we were stuck with a, with a rerun of, of, so you think that's what it was? It was the persecution of Trump. Yeah. It seemed like that blunted DeSantis.

And basically, Republicans went back to Trump and went like, well, if the Democrats are going to do that, we're going to stand by Trump. And, uh, you know, if the, you know, the arresting a major candidate is un-American, it's, it's totally shameful in the United States history. And the Democrats didn't get in the way and go like, oh, let's, let's not do that. They let local politicians, you know, kind of run amok like this New York case.

And, and so they got the, they got the nominee they wanted, uh, Donald Trump, but now they're, now they're real worried that they're going to get the president. They don't want Donald Trump. So we shall see. So you're the, the reason that you've emerged from.

What does that mean?

And then this, this higher, more, uh, realm of the science.

And it all tells pretty much the same story. So.

I'm not saying that, but then I started to ask around, you know, do you know anyone who died of COVID? Do you know anyone? Like, actually, no one. Have you had dinner with anyone who later died of COVID? Do you know anyone who was injured by the Vax?

And I don't think I've ever met a single person who didn't have the same answer I did. Whether that's reality or not, I still don't know. But I do know there's been such an effort.

And then I looked up a little more about him and like, well, you know, he probably would have had another good couple of decades going to old timers, games and stuff like that. But then it turned out that he dropped out of public life the year before because he had dementia and Parkinson's. just general, he didn't have a good life ahead of him. Um, and so I think that's one of the things that was going on was that COVID was really taking a toll among people who had passed their primes and were toward the last decade of their lives and weren't no longer in the public eye. And, uh, so that's, that, that sort of helps explain the thesis that, yeah, there was a lot of COVID deaths, the antithesis that, like, you know, it's not like anybody I was like met and I knew at work, dropped dead of COVID.

And then you get the synthesis of like, oh yeah, it's, it, it mostly, uh, killed off people who were, who were probably close to retirement, retired in ill health from other things, and so on. So I think what's interesting.

Is that my imagination? No, it's,

Did the, uh, the conventional wisdom that race does not biologically exist be proven? No, of course not. You can, you can call up ancestry.com or 23andme, and they'll tell you your race to three, three digits. Um, you know, they'll tell you, you know, if you're, if you're Jewish, they'll tell you, you know, you're 49.8%, Ashkenazi. Uh, other data is piling up.

Uh, there's a Harvard economist named Raj Chetty, who's done phenomenal work, talking government bureaucracies into letting him work with totally confidential data, like, like the tax returns of everybody in the country. And so he can do studies that nobody had ever had the chutzpah to dream before that they'd ever get the hands on the data. So, for example, he gets, uh, he, he tracked 21 million Americans across 30 years of their lives from, he looked at how much money their parents made in the 1990s. And then he looked at things like, were they in jail on census day, January, April, 1st, 2010,, when they were about 30 years old. And so then he could plot out what's, what are the odds of, uh, of a man being in jail based on how poor or rich his parents were.

And, not surprisingly, poor, poor guys who grew up poor go to jail a lot more, but he could also answer, using data from the census Bureau, what the race was of all 21 million of his people. And he discovered, yeah, in general, uh, blacks who had the exact same income as whites growing up as kids in the nineties, but on two thousand, in 2010,, we're in jail three to 10 times more often than whites, who were their exact peers in terms of family income. And this, this is like, wow, I never expected somebody to be able to come up with that. And it goes, yeah. So when people wonder, why are blacks in jail more often, is it, is it poverty?

and poverty plays a role, but even without poverty, you take it all away. at the highest level, blacks. at the, at the highest percentile blacks go to jail about 10 times as often as, as the richest whites. Uh, so, we're able to answer all sorts of social science questions these days, but we're, nobody likes.

Yeah. Maybe we had too much information. Yeah. Uh, what, what happened?

the one thing you can't see in it is race. There's no difference whatsoever genetically between different genomes in terms of racial ancestry. Well, then, within three, four or five years, the evidence was piling up. It was like, no, actually, you can tell exactly what the ancestry of people is became a sizable business very quickly. But as far as I can tell, a huge fraction of the population remembers hearing that the science has proven that race doesn't exist genetically, and they've never rethought it since that 2000,.

uh, speech by Venter standing next to Bill Clinton. Um, so people, people want to believe some things. They want to believe that the science has proven all of this, this anti-racist, uh, dogmas that they get told. And they just sort of ignore that. now it's actually moving the other direction.

And it's time that we, it's time that we think realistically about, you know, what the data is telling us. And, you know, personally, I don't think it's the end of the world by any means. And I think we can, like, we can, all get along pretty well, knowing, knowing the realities, but a lot of people are just terrified of them and basically

you know, toward, toward a sort of Nazi type solution of having a scapegoat who's, who unites everybody else by being the locus of evil, namely, uh, whites, or, you know, in the way the Democratic works, it's, it's all sorts of circles within circles. So you get more Pokemon points for being non-white, you get diversity points for being a woman, you get more diversity points if you were born a man, et cetera, et cetera. Um, but yeah, unifying around the scapegoat population, that does not have a good track record. What happens in the end? What happens in the end?

We don't know. Uh, does, does it get worse? Or one, one of the things we see maybe over the last year is people just objecting to it and pushing back and laughing at the conventional wisdom and scoffing at it and saying, you know, you guys are just making this up. It's not true. You're just saying it so you can get DEI money and easy, sinecure jobs.

And, you know, we don't believe this.

as a minority. They were getting, uh, contracting preferences on government deals. And the South Asian said, well, Hey, we just got off the airplane. We should be getting those deals too. And so the South Asian organizations got themselves declared, uh, to be Asian and grouped in with the, with the Orientals, and formed the new Asian group so they could get these, these good deals from the government that white people are not entitled to.

And, uh, so that was, that was an early example of flight from white. Um, you, you see it with, um, the Hispanics increasingly, um, originally when the Hispanic category was created, it was set up so Hispanics could get good deals from the government and get good, uh, affirmative action benefits, but without actually declaring themselves to be racially white, because a lot of them were kind of took pride in their kind of, they took racist pride in their blue blooded Spanish heritage and so forth. Well, there's an awful lot of that in Latin America. So they, so they increased, um, so they could set up a separate ethnicity for Hispanics. So you could get all the affirmative action benefits without actually admitting your shame of being white.

But enough time has gone by that, you know, only your, uh, you know, your Fuentes types anymore are like really publicly white racist from Latin America. And, uh, and now it's more prestigious to declare yourself racially, I'm Hispanic, even though nobody's exactly.

And, but of course it's a multiracial country, heavily black country as our, as is Cuba, which is Spanish. I mean, it's like, I don't understand what, what does the word?

Lusitanics? And according to a book I read by David Bernstein, uh, categorized, I believe it's called, uh, a law professor. He said that most of the federal government will not give you a break on federal contracting. If you, if you put down your Brazilian, except the department of transportation, they'll, they'll give you racial preferences for bidding on a highway overpass or something like that. If you're Brazilian, they'll, they'll include them in the Hispanics.

So it's, I mean, we live, we live in a society that's increasingly mixed in terms of ancestry. So we have more and more people coming out who are a quarter of this and a quarter of that. And there's lots of money on the table. And as long as you're not, as long as you don't declare yourself white, you've got all sorts of opportunities to get freebies.

So if, if Harvard becomes 56% Asian, are Asians going to consider Harvard cool? Or do Asians want to go to places that there's a white people there? Um, you know, nobody really knows. And, uh, you know, what I don't, what I don't know is whether the, the Asian, uh, rise, the rise in Asian SAT scores is completely legitimate and they just really have been getting so much smarter than everybody else in the 21st century. The Asian test scores are pulling away from the field, like Secretariat in the 1973 Belmont, or, you know, could there be other reasons?

Yeah. Could, could it be, I mean, we know there's a lot of cheating in Asia itself on the SAT. Um, I don't think.

So they keep doing things like let's get rid of analogies, and that'll be fairer, but it winds up just benefiting the Asians most of all. Why? Oh, it was more of a, the, when they had analogies, it was, it was harder to memorize, apparently. And the test prep didn't work as well. It took a certain amount of creativity and kind of insight in the brain.

And, uh, but, the university of California demanded getting rid of analogies about 20 years ago. So the college board said, yeah, sure. You're our biggest customer. We'll do what you want. And then?

Um, you know, I mean, that's, that's one reason, uh, that COVID came.

And then what happened was that the colleges started noticing like, wow, these kids who are showing up that we let in, they're not very bright. They are not going to become computer science graduates of MIT. So MIT was the first one that went, ah, this was stupid. We're going back to demanding, uh, standardized tests. And now Harvard's jumped on board.

Everybody except the university of California at the elite level is moving in that direction. Uh, because it, it was, so it is, it is a measure of aptitude. Yeah. And it, yeah, it's, it's a very good measure of aptitude. It tells, you know, GPA, high school GPA is a great measure, but it's hard to compare schools.

Some schools are hard in grade. Some are easy. Um, having, having this, uh, having a test and having high school grades, you can put them together and they work pretty well. Uh, but because, because of the racial gaps that have been around forever and these things, uh, it was decided during the racial reckoning that all that absolutely proves, as Ibram X. Kendi has demonstrated by scientific logic, that, um, the only reason some races might be doing better than other races is because of the evil whiteness.

But of course, what it turns out is the Asians are doing much, much better. And because of the evil avoidance, uh, because nobody really knows, because nobody's that interested in studying it, because it sounds like the kind of thing you could get canceled for finding out. And, um, just in general, we have a lot of problems that have been swept under the rug in, in recent years because they don't fit within the ideologies, the woke ideologies. Um, and just to think about them as kind of dangerous sounding.

Now Boeing may be working on reversing a, But, uh, yeah, I, you know, we, we got a lot better at things by having systems to find people who were competent and work hard. And now the zeitgeist in the 21st century has been moving away from that. Uh, will we see a lot of planes crashing? God, I hope not, but you know, we need to, to, we need to make 180 degree U-turn in terms of what we value, whether it's competence or diversity. And, you know, lately diversity has been winning and that's going to get people killed.

It's just like going to ride it right back to the stone age, pretend it was never an advanced society in our country, which is different from South Africa in a lot of ways. Will there be a point like when the planes do crash and the air traffic controllers are just high or too dumb or distracted, don't care, to keep the planes from crashing. Will there be a public demand? Like, no, no, no. Let's just hire.

There was a plane crash in 2009.

. Congressmen take a lot of flights to get back to their home district.

Now, are we, you know, but on the other hand, the Obama administration came along and basically sabotaged the system for hiring air traffic controllers. And Congress had set up a pretty good system for finding good people in the nineties. But yeah, it turned out to be, it's like white men really like air, they really like airplanes. It's like, well, you know, what is, what does a, what have white men ever done with airplanes since the Wright brothers? So there, there were too many whites.

So the Obama administration came up with a totally absurd corrupt test for, to hire more black guys.

And so what happens is then you get fewer people still make it, make it through the training. So the training has been kept pretty legitimate. So you flunk out more people, which then means that you're, you're under the number of air traffic controllers you expected. So you, you're making them work really long hours and they're getting more and more tired on the job and they're making mistakes and stuff like that. And it tracks back to the Obama administration's DEI program for, for air traffic controllers.

Can we avoid that? Yeah, we, we can. We just got to talk about it. And we just can't just shut down discussion by saying, are you saying that, you know, a stereotype that, on average, blacks wouldn't make as good air traffic controllers as whites? And the answer is, yeah, yeah, I'm saying that.

So you expect to have a fewer percentage passing the test. and, but we can live with it. We, we live with it every day in sports, that there are racial differences in performance on average, and nobody cares that much. and you know, God bless them. We love sports.

So yeah, there are, there is hope for the country that we can go back and have a philosophy, for, you know, for things like jet travel. that we're, we, we consider it as important as the NFL and therefore we can't have, you know, racial quotas getting in the way. That doesn't seem out of outlandish.

So it could be a short-term thought, or it could be that enough people have noticed and have been empowered by changes like Elon Musk opening up Twitter so that, you know, I can have 125,000 followers. Just, you know, the accumulation of little changes like that, that, you know, these ideas that I've been propounding for 30 years and have people out there going, yeah, that's Saylor's ideas. They make sense. He's like the most reasonable guy in America.

Maybe, you know, we've gone through a watershed and we're beyond the mania of the racial reckoning and the great awokening.

Knock on wood, I hope so.

And so there's something really threatening about a guy who's like, no, actually, no, hear the numbers and doesn't raise his voice. That's way more threatening than some guy who's jumping up and down on cable news or, you know, sending crazed tweets all day long. That person is, you know, his potential audience is much smaller than yours. Your potential audience is like, you know, sort of any open-minded person who'd like to solve a problem. That's always been my thought.

Buckley was he cracked down on Pat Buchanan. All right. And I never met Mr. Buckley. You know, I worked for National Review, wrote for National Review in the 90s.

But I did, I did meet Mr. Buchanan and, you know, Pat was a great guy. I mean, I mean, one of my last memories of my father, before he died at 95 was Pat sent me one of his new books and he'd gone through and put post-it notes on every page where he quoted me or made reference to some concept of mine. So I showed it to my dad and he read it. He looked through it, all the things that Pat had with his own hand had said, all the nice things he'd said about me, and was like, wow, you're, this is great.

And, you know, that was like the last thing or last interaction before he died. And I thank Pat Buchanan for it. And a lot of people have good.

So, I mean, I guess it could kind of go either way. It depends on who's writing the history. I mean, I'd bet, I'd bet money that, you know, Pat Buchanan is described in 50 years when there's not a single living person who actually knew him, you know, some sort of monster or hater or something like that.

And so most of our history books were kind of biased in favor of the South.

You know, what's, how we're going to remember, you know, our time, I don't know.

But, you know, it could go, it could change very much. And, you know, maybe, maybe we'll have different heroes all of a sudden, you know, that's, that's. maybe you and you and me will come out looking pretty good.