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Visa

2023-11-27 03:43:25

Every company has a story. Learn the playbooks that built the world’s greatest companies — and how you can apply them as a founder, operator, or investor.

NaN
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It's funny, when we picked this episode, I was like, Oh, this is gonna be pretty down

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the middle and easy. And then, of course, as we get into the research, as always, it's

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like, Oh, no, big story here. There's always a story. Who got the truth? Is it you? Is

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it you? Is it you? Who got the truth now? Is it you? Is it you? Is it you? Sit me down.

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Say it straight. Another story on the way. Who got the truth? Welcome to Season 13, Episode

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4 of Acquired, the podcast about great technology companies and the stories and playbooks behind

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them. I'm Ben Gilbert. I'm David Rosenthal. And we are your hosts. Today, we tell the

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story of an absolutely incredible system. You can show up anywhere in the entire world

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with a piece of plastic and transact for anything you want in any currency. The merchant doesn't

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need to know you or trust you, and you do not need to know or trust the merchant. And

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Visa, along with just one other competitor, MasterCard, has tirelessly spent decades stitching

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together all the banks, merchants, and the relationships with consumers to make this

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possible. Now, this is just the rosy side of the story, and merchants may harbor far

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less rosy feelings about Visa, given how much of their profits go to interchange fees. But

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the duality of the story is what makes it so interesting to understand. Today, we will

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explore how the whole thing came to be, and try to understand the value that the credit

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and debit card system creates, compared with how much it captures, and by whom, in what

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situations. So here are some astonishing stats on Visa. It is the 11th most valuable company

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in the world. It is worth more than any bank in the world, including every bank involved

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in creating it. Visa's brand is among the very most trusted in the world, associated

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with reliability and security. But that said, if you asked most people what Visa does, they

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could not actually articulate it. Visa does not extend credit. They do not issue cards.

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They do not work directly with merchants. They do not work directly with consumers.

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They are not a bank or a financial institution. They don't ever bear any risk. They are merely

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a network, connecting banks to other banks. David, it is insane.

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This is such an insane story. I can't believe we're all the way in Season 13, and we haven't

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talked about this company yet. But as we will get into, it's always been overlooked and

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underrated.

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Well, perhaps not underrated the last decade or so. If you listeners want to know every

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time an episode drops, you can sign up for email updates at acquired.fm slash email.

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Two new fun things. One, emails now include little hints and some teasers about what next

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episode will be. So if you want to play the guessing game, sign up at acquired.fm slash

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email. And the emails have another new feature. We are including follow-ups from previous

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episodes when we learn new things from you after release.

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Come talk about this episode with us after listening at acquired.fm slash slack. And

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if you want more from David and I outside of these big, long, main Acquired episodes,

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check out ACQ2, our interviews on a second podcast feed. Now, without further ado, this

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show is not investment advice. David and I may have investments in the companies we discuss,

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and this show is for informational and entertainment purposes only. David Rosenthal, where are

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we starting today?

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Well, we are starting actually with a big thank you to Dave Stearns, author of what

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is undeniably the very best book on Visa and its history, Electronic Value Exchange. And

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we owe a thank you to Dave both for writing the book and for talking to us as we researched

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and helping us sift through everything as we're preparing here.

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Fellow Seattleite and the book, which is so wonderfully esoterically named Electronic

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Value Exchange, was his, I think, PhD thesis that they sort of turned into a book.

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Correct.

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All right. Take us back in time.

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So D. Hawk, the founder of Visa, who we will talk a lot about as we go along here, he told

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this great story of how after his time at Visa in his kind of older age, he would start

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his speaking engagements with a little thought exercise for the audience. He would get up

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on stage, he'd hold up his Visa card, and he would ask, how many of you recognize this?

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And of course, every single hand in the room would go up, as I assume all of yours listening

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are going up now, too. Then he would say, okay, now how many of you can tell me who

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owns this company? And every single hand in the room would always go down. And then he

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would say, how did this company start? No hands. Who runs it and who governs it? No

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hands. Where is it headquartered? No hands. It's just wild, as we were saying in the intro,

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how important this company is. And yet still to this day, I think, you know, maybe a few

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more people than in D's time know the answer to these questions, but not many.

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Yeah, it's one of these things, too. It's like one of the only essential pieces of financial

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infrastructure in the United States that has not run out of New York.

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So our task today is to tackle these questions. And we start where some of you I suspect know,

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but the vast majority of you I also suspect don't. We start in 1958 in Fresno, California,

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with The Drop.

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The Drop. This is the name of the title in this fantastic book, A Piece of the Action,

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How the Middle Class Joined the Money Class. And it's chapter one, The Drop, 1958. The

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Drop has become like, if you say The Drop to someone in the fintech industry, they're

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like, oh, September 1958, Fresno.

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Yep. And the rest of the world has no idea.

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Yep.

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All right. So what happened? Well, the then largest bank in America, the San Francisco-based

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Bank of America, which formerly was called the Bank of Italy, both of which were total

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misnomers because it was actually more accurately the Bank of California. It was illegal to

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operate banks across multiple states back then, as we will discuss.

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And the reason it was named Bank of Italy was it was started by an Italian immigrant

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who wanted to create something for the underbanked Italians in his California community.

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Yeah, mostly farmers and merchants in San Francisco. It really started as like the Bank

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of the Little Guy. So Bank of America decides that they are going to mail out little rectangular

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pieces of plastic to every single one of their 65,000 customers in the city of Fresno, completely

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unsolicited.

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Now, a couple of things about this. One, it's wild. I think the Fresno population at this

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point in time was like maybe 200,000, 250,000 people. So like a huge portion of the city

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of Fresno banked with Bank of America. And that was true for all of California at the

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time. Two, they just send these things out. Obviously, these are credit cards. People

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don't know what they are. They have no idea what to use them. Mass chaos ensues.

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Well, and certainly nobody asked for them. There's this great quote, again, from a piece

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of the action that describes it and says, there had been no outward yearning among the

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residents of Fresno for such a device, nor even the dimmest awareness that such a thing

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was in the works. It simply arrived one day with no advance warning as if it had dropped

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out of the sky.

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All right. So to explain how we got here, we need to spend a few more minutes on Bank

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of America's history and the history of banking and payment industries in the U.S. more broadly.

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So like we said, B of A was the biggest bank in America in the 1950s, but it was not like

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all the other big banks at the time. It was a consumer bank. The other large and influential

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banks in America back then were like the J.P. Morgans. They were white shoe corporate banks

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based in New York. We talked about this a lot in the Nike episode. It was illegal for

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banks to operate across state lines until much, much later in history.

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So for banks back then, the only way that you could actually get big for just about

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everybody else in the industry was to go the corporate route and to go the investment

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banking route, because you could service very large corporations that obviously were large

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themselves, would generate lots of deposits, lots of lending activity. The investment banking

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activities around that were obviously very lucrative. That's how the J.P. Morgans, the

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Morgan Stanleys, et cetera, the world came to be.

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For the most part, consumer banks were kind of backwater, small. There was no way to aggregate

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enough customers that you could get big enough.

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Well, and in most states, they would have restrictions on the number of branches that

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banks could actually have. In some states, I think Texas was one of them, you literally

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could only have one branch. Other states would limit them as something like three. Other

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states would limit them and say none outside the city. So you were sort of a bank of a

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city. You could almost think about these more as credit unions than these sort of big banks

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that we think about today.

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California happened to be unique in that you could actually have branches all over the

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state, and California happened to have quite a large population. So it was kind of the

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only place you could pull off a large consumer bank.

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Yes, exactly. California was already the second biggest state in the nation at that time behind

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New York, but the New York banking industry was super fragmented because Bank of America,

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starting as Bank of Italy with all these immigrants, had built up a consumer base.

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They really were unique. So the business of banking is, well, banking. You take deposits,

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you make loans, you make your money on the loans. B of A was doing tons and tons and

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tons of small, little, and disparate consumer loans and lending. So obviously, mortgages

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and car loans, like those still exist today, but they were doing like washing machine loans.

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They were doing like buy now, pay later, but instead of on the website, you would go to

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your local bank branch, you would schedule time, you would sit down with the bank manager,

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and he would authorize you to go spend $150 at some merchant and make you a loan that you would

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come pay back over the next few months in installments. And every single time that you

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wanted to buy something now and pay for it later, you would repeat this very physical,

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one-off manual process.

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Yeah. And for specific items, to like go buy a refrigerator.

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Wild.

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It was just wild to imagine today. So you can see why for a bank like Bank of America that

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is doing this at such large scale, the idea of a consumer credit card, well, it's pretty

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awesome because you can take all of these disparate lending programs, consolidate it

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into just one card, cut out a ton of overhead fees and make it way more efficient. So this

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is what they are launching first in Fresno as the pilot market, and they call it the

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Bank AmeriCard.

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Beautiful name.

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Beautiful name. And it would survive for quite a long time.

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Now, this wasn't exactly a new idea on the part of Bank of America. Charge cards and

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credit cards have been around for decades. What was new was this was the first time that

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a bank had entered this market at scale. So let's talk about the history. Historically

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in the US, transferring money was actually not that easy. You had two options. You could

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use cash or you could use checks. And checks worked, but they also had a bunch of problems.

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One, until the creation of the Federal Reserve in the 1910s, the parties cashing the check,

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receiving the check, didn't actually receive the full face value of the check because there

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was a bunch of work and like mailing stuff around, traveling around the country that

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had to be done. And that was taken as a discount out of the check.

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And this is super important. This thing that we have today, interchange rates on credit

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cards, that was happening with checks too. There was really a lot of expense and risk

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in processing checks when they first got started. And like, of course you would take a discount

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out of the fact that you're taking risk and you're spending money to go and make sure

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that this check that someone handed you eventually turned into dollars that you could have in

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your possession. Totally. So problem number one, you didn't

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get all the money. Right.

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Problem number two, also a big problem. It took a really long time. Imagine, you know,

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we're talking like the 1800s, early 1900s. This stuff was on the Pony Express, you know,

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pieces of paper going around a really, really big country. Not ideal.

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Yeah. And until ACH, where the banks would sort of all meet once a day and decide, okay,

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how much do I owe you? How much do you owe me? In aggregate, okay, let's just settle

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one transaction and then we'll figure out all of our internal accounting ourselves.

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They were literally like check by check and saying, okay, I have this check. So you owe

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me $6.08. Okay, next check. Oh, I owe you $4.20. And it was this crazy system of individual

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couriers bringing checks from the person who gave it to the merchant for the merchant to

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go and track down the money and bring the money back.

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Totally. And spoiler alert, ACH doesn't get developed in the U.S. until the 1970s.

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Wow. Humans, though, are quite ingenious creatures at solving their problems, particularly when

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motivated by money. So there is sort of an obvious solution to this for merchants and

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their sort of usual regular customers. And that is credit accounts, charge accounts.

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Rather than giving me money or a check, let me just keep tabs on a ledger of what you bought,

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what the value is, I'll tab it all up. And then at the end of the month, you'll come give me a

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check or cash for it. I remember even me growing up in the 1980s, we had this at our local gas

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station near our house. Really? We had a credit account. And it was just like, whenever any of

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our family would go to this gas station, we would get the gas. And then we'd go inside and be like,

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oh, we have an account here. And they just write down what it was. And then at the end of the

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month, I assume my dad would go give them some money, which saves on operations for everyone.

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It's oh, great. Now we only need to move money once we move it at the end of the month. And I

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trust you because I've seen you lots. So from charge accounts at individual gas stations or

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individual branches of a grocery store chain or something like that, it's not a leap to think

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the next stage of evolution would be, oh, a card or account that would work at all the branches

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of a given brand. So like the gas stations get into this in a big way. Standard Oil gets into

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this in a big way. Lots of standard stations across the country. You can have an account

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that works at all standard stations. Yep. In 1939, Standard Oil of Indiana

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sent 250,000 unsolicited cards directly to all of their customers.

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Yeah. Making the Fresno drop look like a drop in the bucket, shall we say?

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Well, and interestingly, this is 20 years before. But again, this is not a bank. This is a single

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merchant mailing it out to all of their customers exclusively for use at their facility.

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Yep. So there was that phase. Then pretty quickly in a given local area,

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some of the retailers would get together and be like, you know, we compete with each other,

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but it sucks running these charge account programs on our own. We could collaborate and have a

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standardized charge account system that we could share.

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And just literally to simplify the back office as the first value proposition here.

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Yep. And for consumers, that's also pretty awesome because do you really want to carry

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around 57 different charge cards in your wallet or would you rather have one that would be like,

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you know, your visa to everywhere you want to be? Yes. And not to mention on top of this,

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there is the huge benefit of a shared credit history. Now, all these merchants who were

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losing money on people coming and getting a loan from them in the form of, I'm going to buy some

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goods, I'll pay you back later. But it turns out they had run up a tab all over town and

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weren't paying their bills anywhere. Now with this idea of a shared card, you actually can

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have a shared notion of who a consumer is across locations and across different retailers.

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Yep. So this comes to be kind of post depression in the 1930s, 1940s in the U.S.

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And this really is starting to sound a lot like visa, except as you point out, Ben,

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there is a problem here. As the size of any given network of retailers that are

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collaborating on this grows, so does the intensity of competition within that network.

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So once you get to a certain scale, nobody's really incentivized to keep making this work.

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A, because now you're enabling people to shop all your competitors. But also B, once you get past,

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I don't know, a couple hundred, a thousand participants here, like our individual merchants

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equipped to manage a network like this. No, they don't have the resources to do this.

[00:17:07.57 - 00:17:11.61]

Right. So you have to spin up some kind of like shared organization that all the merchants are

[00:17:11.61 - 00:17:16.69]

pulling their capital into in order to run the network on behalf of all of the merchants. It

[00:17:16.69 - 00:17:24.53]

gets messy. Or there could be an independent third party for profit network that does this.

[00:17:24.53 - 00:17:30.89]

And this is when Diners Club and American Express arrive on the scene. So Diners Club was first,

[00:17:30.99 - 00:17:35.17]

and people might know and have heard of Diners Club. It still exists today. It's like a sub-brand

[00:17:35.17 - 00:17:42.49]

of Discover. Totally. There's a very famous legendary origin story behind Diners Club,

[00:17:42.91 - 00:17:49.31]

and it goes like this. In 1949, you know, post-World War II, economic prosperity,

[00:17:49.31 - 00:17:54.89]

beginning of the Mad Men years in New York and Manhattan, a New York businessman named

[00:17:54.89 - 00:18:01.65]

Frank McNamara is hosting a lavish business dinner in downtown. Halfway through the dinner,

[00:18:02.37 - 00:18:08.49]

he realizes that he forgot his wallet at home. He does not have cash to pay for the dinner.

[00:18:08.83 - 00:18:14.49]

So he excuses himself. He goes to the payphone. He calls his wife at home on Long Island.

[00:18:14.49 - 00:18:20.57]

She speeds into the city with enough cash in time to pay the bill for the dinner. And,

[00:18:20.69 - 00:18:24.89]

you know, face is saved. His reputation as an erudite businessman is preserved.

[00:18:25.11 - 00:18:29.59]

And then afterwards, he's talking to his wife. He's like, oh, there's got to be a better way

[00:18:29.59 - 00:18:36.39]

to do this. There really should be a business person focused charge card network that would

[00:18:36.39 - 00:18:41.51]

work at all the restaurants in Manhattan where business people host dinners. So nobody ever

[00:18:41.51 - 00:18:45.85]

needs to bring their cash. And, you know, you could just imagine that, like, we're all in this

[00:18:45.85 - 00:18:51.37]

club of diners where anywhere we dine, we can stand up. We can authorize the bill. We can leave.

[00:18:51.49 - 00:18:55.85]

We can pay no dollars out of our pocket that moment. And we get one nice statement at the

[00:18:55.85 - 00:19:00.49]

end of the month that, importantly, we do need to pay in full. We cannot roll it over into a loan.

[00:19:00.87 - 00:19:05.19]

We must pay it. But that's nice because all of my business transactions are on one single

[00:19:05.19 - 00:19:10.27]

statement. It's easy for my expense reports. It's easy for me to not have to carry a wallet around.

[00:19:10.27 - 00:19:14.29]

And, of course, I get to look super awesome in front of all of my colleagues.

[00:19:15.09 - 00:19:19.79]

I think there are two really important points here. One, you said I pay it. I don't pay it.

[00:19:19.79 - 00:19:26.07]

My company pays it. You know, I don't care. Two, the most important point, I get to look super

[00:19:26.07 - 00:19:31.23]

awesome in front of all my colleagues and customers and people that I'm trying to impress.

[00:19:31.43 - 00:19:34.67]

I don't need to bring cash. They know me here. I'm good for it.

[00:19:34.99 - 00:19:39.07]

And just to start tracking a certain number here, when we were talking about

[00:19:39.07 - 00:19:43.87]

checks earlier that were getting a discount, and even in this era of early Diner's Club,

[00:19:44.03 - 00:19:49.15]

early American Express, we're talking about a five to seven percent discount of what actually

[00:19:49.15 - 00:19:55.37]

got remitted ultimately to the restaurant or the retailer versus what the bill was

[00:19:55.37 - 00:19:59.61]

originally that the consumer authorized. So all that's a very nice story,

[00:19:59.63 - 00:20:05.75]

except it's completely fabricated. None of that actually happened, although stories like that

[00:20:05.75 - 00:20:11.03]

did play out, I'm sure, on a nightly basis in Manhattan. The reality is Frank just thought

[00:20:11.03 - 00:20:15.85]

this would be a good business idea, and he was right. You know, you see this all the time with

[00:20:15.85 - 00:20:21.99]

networks, network effect businesses. This was the right little node of the network to start with.

[00:20:22.07 - 00:20:27.77]

This was like Harvard and Facebook because restaurants in Manhattan, they're competitive

[00:20:27.77 - 00:20:32.65]

with one another, but it's not exclusive competition. This isn't JC Penney's versus

[00:20:32.65 - 00:20:39.09]

Macy's. No restauranteur in Manhattan, no matter how good they are, really honestly believes that

[00:20:39.09 - 00:20:44.91]

a majority of their customers are only going to dine at their restaurant. Great point. So there's

[00:20:44.91 - 00:20:52.25]

some incentivized sharing. It's almost like the reason to enter into a bundle for your most

[00:20:52.25 - 00:20:56.73]

extreme fans, which are only going to be like the top five percent of your customers. Sure,

[00:20:56.77 - 00:21:01.13]

you want some kind of exclusive relationship and you want to maximize the dollar value you can get

[00:21:01.13 - 00:21:06.35]

out of them, but for your casual fans who like your business but aren't necessarily exclusively

[00:21:06.35 - 00:21:11.89]

going to use your business, you should figure out some kind of bundling system that makes you work

[00:21:11.89 - 00:21:17.41]

with complements of yours so that people can shop you and everything like you with the easiest way

[00:21:17.41 - 00:21:22.11]

possible, and you can still make some money on everybody. You're enabling people to spend money

[00:21:22.11 - 00:21:27.37]

in your restaurant easier and more frequently, and you don't really care that they also go to

[00:21:27.37 - 00:21:31.79]

restaurants because they're going to do that anyway. It's crazy. Like you said, Diner's Club

[00:21:31.79 - 00:21:37.13]

is able to charge restaurants and other merchants. They expand to hotels, airlines, anything that a

[00:21:37.13 - 00:21:43.21]

business person traveler would need. Seven percent of the gross bill. Merchants complain about three

[00:21:43.21 - 00:21:48.83]

percent today. Seven percent. And these are restaurants. That's crazy. Eventually, they have

[00:21:48.83 - 00:21:54.57]

so much power in what they're doing. This product is so good. They also add a fee for the card

[00:21:54.57 - 00:21:59.29]

holders, and it's companies. It's not individual people paying this fee. It's the companies paying

[00:21:59.29 - 00:22:04.67]

this fee. Of course, they're happy to pay it. It enables business. Amazing. Brilliant idea back in

[00:22:04.67 - 00:22:10.33]

the day. And we should say this is pricing power in action to have those very high fees. It's also

[00:22:10.33 - 00:22:17.59]

a necessity. The cost of running these networks in a previous technology generation was super high,

[00:22:17.97 - 00:22:23.23]

and it was not at full scale yet. So it's just operating with a bunch of restaurants and

[00:22:23.23 - 00:22:28.23]

retailers in New York City. So you actually need a lot of people, both because there's not a lot of

[00:22:28.23 - 00:22:32.41]

technology, but you need a lot of people even though there aren't actually a lot of merchants.

[00:22:32.89 - 00:22:39.23]

And so it turns out there's just a lot of cost in the system to run it. And Diner's Club would

[00:22:39.23 - 00:22:43.09]

ultimately fade, although it grows to over a million members. It goes national. It gets acquired

[00:22:43.09 - 00:22:48.87]

by Citibank, then sold to Discover in 2008. As we said, it's still a brand today. But it's basically

[00:22:48.87 - 00:22:55.69]

impossible to create an independent from the ground up network of this at the time because

[00:22:55.69 - 00:23:00.53]

you were just talking about the operational costs of running this thing. Think about the merchant

[00:23:00.53 - 00:23:05.59]

and customer acquisition costs. Nobody knew what Diner's Club was. They have to now go canvas the

[00:23:05.59 - 00:23:11.13]

entire island of Manhattan and ultimately the whole country and world and sign up all of these

[00:23:11.13 - 00:23:16.67]

merchants and go sign up all of these companies to get their employees to use it. That is a very

[00:23:16.67 - 00:23:21.37]

expensive sales proposition. Whereas from this point on, basically everybody else that comes

[00:23:21.37 - 00:23:27.69]

into the industry already has established relationship sales channels into one or both

[00:23:27.69 - 00:23:33.17]

sides of the market, which of course brings us to the brand you're all probably thinking about here,

[00:23:33.65 - 00:23:38.47]

American Express. Which is the Diner's Club of today. It's the favored card by businesses.

[00:23:39.03 - 00:23:45.67]

It is the card that is most used for travel and entertainment and meals.

[00:23:46.43 - 00:23:50.75]

Yep. And so as you might remember from our Berkshire Hathaway series a couple years ago,

[00:23:51.37 - 00:23:55.51]

Amex at this point in time was primarily a traveler's checks business.

[00:23:55.91 - 00:23:56.85]

That's how they started, right?

[00:23:57.31 - 00:24:01.53]

Well, actually, no. They started in 1850. This is amazing. Do you know who started

[00:24:01.53 - 00:24:04.81]

American Express? This is a version of D-Hawk holding up the visa card.

[00:24:04.91 - 00:24:06.63]

Ooh, no, I don't.

[00:24:06.63 - 00:24:11.79]

I did not either until doing research for this episode. It was started by a group of people,

[00:24:12.39 - 00:24:14.81]

two of the most prominent among whom were...

[00:24:14.81 - 00:24:15.29]

Wells and Fargo.

[00:24:15.43 - 00:24:17.21]

Henry Wells and William Fargo.

[00:24:17.59 - 00:24:17.97]

Amazing.

[00:24:18.69 - 00:24:22.91]

Totally amazing. Man, 1850, the Wild West, different time.

[00:24:23.03 - 00:24:28.01]

It was something like they started American Express, but then had a conflict. And so they

[00:24:28.01 - 00:24:30.37]

left and they started Wells Fargo after that.

[00:24:30.81 - 00:24:34.53]

Yeah, something like that. The infrastructure of America was getting built out. So American

[00:24:34.53 - 00:24:38.77]

Express, it's called American Express, it was an express mail company. It was like the

[00:24:38.77 - 00:24:43.39]

Pony Express. That was how they moved stuff around. And I think Wells and Fargo were doing

[00:24:43.39 - 00:24:46.23]

banking. And so obviously banks, as we're talking about, you need to move stuff around

[00:24:46.23 - 00:24:48.33]

the country. It was like a related business.

[00:24:49.05 - 00:24:54.85]

It's amazing. I think it's fascinating that Wells Fargo came after Amex. You think Wells

[00:24:54.85 - 00:24:59.53]

Fargo as this old-timey foundation of America, American Express is even older than that.

[00:24:59.53 - 00:25:05.43]

So Amex, by this point in time, had become a traveler's checks, primarily. That was their

[00:25:05.43 - 00:25:10.67]

primary business. As we talked about on the Berkshire episode, that was a freaking awesome

[00:25:10.67 - 00:25:15.39]

business. Partially because traveler's checks, they made good money. You would buy a $100

[00:25:15.39 - 00:25:20.59]

traveler's check and pay Amex a little fee or whatever. But the float and the breakage,

[00:25:20.73 - 00:25:24.55]

there's traveler's checks out there today that are 50, 100 years old that have never

[00:25:24.55 - 00:25:30.87]

been cashed. And Amex has just been sitting on that cash for decades, investing it. What

[00:25:30.87 - 00:25:31.69]

an amazing business.

[00:25:32.63 - 00:25:37.85]

Okay. So Amex observes Diners Club and says, Hey, we need to get into this. And we actually

[00:25:37.85 - 00:25:40.13]

have an ability to get into this fast.

[00:25:40.23 - 00:25:44.13]

And they actually try to buy Diners Club, but they can't get their own price. And so

[00:25:44.13 - 00:25:48.35]

they're like, Well, we don't need to pay you a lot of money because we can just do

[00:25:48.35 - 00:25:53.11]

this too. And like I was just saying, not only can we do it too, we can do it better

[00:25:53.11 - 00:25:59.83]

than you because we're American Express. We have relationships with companies. We

[00:25:59.83 - 00:26:04.55]

have relationships with restaurants. We have relationships with hotels. We don't need

[00:26:04.55 - 00:26:10.77]

you Diners Club. So just within like a year or maybe even two from when Amex launches

[00:26:10.77 - 00:26:17.59]

their charge card, you know, business traveler program, they sign up 700,000 members, which

[00:26:17.59 - 00:26:21.97]

is almost as much as Diners Club had signed up, you know, many years of working on it.

[00:26:22.61 - 00:26:28.21]

And importantly, here, the thing you're seeing is this is the first time a real financial

[00:26:28.21 - 00:26:34.51]

company is coming into the industry. All of the we know you're good for itness was

[00:26:34.51 - 00:26:40.55]

happening directly from retailers before or by organizations that represented retailers

[00:26:40.55 - 00:26:47.27]

and restaurants. And so now you sort of have not a bank, but a bank like entity that is

[00:26:47.27 - 00:26:49.27]

starting to say, Oh, this could be an interesting business.

[00:26:49.83 - 00:26:57.29]

So this brings us right back to Fresno in 1958, because the timelines match up exactly.

[00:26:57.41 - 00:27:04.27]

This is crazy. Amex launched their charge card program in 1958. B of A sees what's

[00:27:04.27 - 00:27:07.93]

happening. They, of course, had seen everything else going on in the industry before they

[00:27:07.93 - 00:27:13.29]

understand the transformative power that this can have for their scaled consumer banking

[00:27:13.29 - 00:27:18.01]

business in California. And they're like, OK, the time is right. Let's do credit cards.

[00:27:18.01 - 00:27:23.79]

Let's go to Fresno. But hopefully, as we painted the picture, their motivation and

[00:27:23.79 - 00:27:29.99]

Diners Club and Amex and even the merchants and retailers motivations are very different.

[00:27:30.77 - 00:27:35.93]

B of A wants two things out of this. One, like we were saying earlier, they want to

[00:27:35.93 - 00:27:41.51]

streamline and simplify all their wildly diverse lending programs. This is going to be huge

[00:27:41.51 - 00:27:49.25]

operational savings for the bank if they can pull this off. Two, though, the bigger opportunity

[00:27:49.25 - 00:27:56.23]

for B of A is what can this do for our banking business itself? Because remember, how do

[00:27:56.23 - 00:28:05.47]

banks make money? They make money on loans. And this is going to enable so much more effective

[00:28:05.47 - 00:28:09.73]

loan volume to flow through our system that we can make money on.

[00:28:10.33 - 00:28:17.25]

So this is where B of A, informed by their previous business model of lending to consumers,

[00:28:17.97 - 00:28:24.29]

really paves the path of what credit cards would become today. Often in the past, before the Bank

[00:28:24.29 - 00:28:28.91]

AmeriCard, what would happen is you'd have this charge card, not a credit card, and the bill would

[00:28:28.91 - 00:28:33.63]

arrive at the end of the month and then you would pay it. The innovation baked into the Bank AmeriCard

[00:28:33.63 - 00:28:37.73]

is they say, well, after the 30 days, you can get your statement, you can pay it in full, or

[00:28:37.73 - 00:28:44.89]

you can roll it into a loan. And we love loans. We would be happy to extend loans to our customers.

[00:28:45.31 - 00:28:50.63]

We can learn a lot about them. We can make good amount of money on that interest. And so the

[00:28:50.63 - 00:28:55.53]

modern credit card is born. And it was already happening at B of A. They were doing these loans.

[00:28:55.65 - 00:29:01.73]

This wasn't actually like new behavior. It was just a way easier, way more streamlined on-ramp

[00:29:01.73 - 00:29:09.43]

into this consumer lending that turbocharged it. This product is the combination of three things,

[00:29:09.71 - 00:29:16.25]

the charge card that had been happening over in Diners Club, Amex, the gas stations, the

[00:29:16.25 - 00:29:22.85]

retailer land. Then the second pillar is this consumer lending. And the third thing is it is

[00:29:22.85 - 00:29:29.53]

now from a real and proper bank that you already have your primary financial relationship with,

[00:29:29.53 - 00:29:34.79]

not from some industry association or hodgepodge of retailers, but now this is issued by your bank.

[00:29:35.27 - 00:29:39.79]

The big takeaway for Bank AmeriCard is it really bundled two different things together.

[00:29:40.15 - 00:29:45.75]

One was convenience and the other is credit. And there's one more really, really important

[00:29:45.75 - 00:29:53.09]

sub point here to what this loan is. And it relates to the banks and why this is so powerful

[00:29:53.09 - 00:29:57.87]

for B of A and for all banks. Think back to the old way that B of A was doing this.

[00:29:58.59 - 00:30:03.83]

A California homeowner wants to go buy a new refrigerator. They walk into a B of A,

[00:30:04.31 - 00:30:08.23]

talk about it with the lending officer, blah, blah, blah, a bunch of operational costs. Who

[00:30:08.23 - 00:30:14.51]

cares about that? At the end of the process, B of A gives them the money. The money is now out of B

[00:30:14.51 - 00:30:20.01]

of A's hands. It's out the door. The consumer then goes to the merchant and gives the merchant the

[00:30:20.01 - 00:30:26.05]

money and buys the refrigerator. What's happening now with credit cards is actually a little

[00:30:26.05 - 00:30:31.69]

different. The consumer goes to the store, the consumer buys the refrigerator with the credit

[00:30:31.69 - 00:30:39.57]

card. No money has left B of A's hands yet. They get to keep the money. Right. A transaction has

[00:30:39.57 - 00:30:45.39]

been authorized, but yes, they get to keep the money. And because we're talking about California

[00:30:45.39 - 00:30:51.99]

here, there is a very high likelihood chance. And I think at the beginning, I suspect a 100% chance

[00:30:52.55 - 00:30:59.23]

that the merchant also banks with B of A. So that money is never leaving Bank of America's hands,

[00:30:59.43 - 00:31:02.35]

which frees up more capital, which frees up flow, which is just like

[00:31:02.79 - 00:31:06.69]

the B of A management must have been besides themselves with glee about this.

[00:31:07.33 - 00:31:12.45]

Well, in theory, if they managed to put any sort of financial controls or proper risk underwriting

[00:31:12.45 - 00:31:16.47]

on this whole thing, but it turns out, David, as I'm sure you are about to tell us.

[00:31:16.51 - 00:31:17.55]

It's exactly where we're going.

[00:31:17.55 - 00:31:23.49]

When you mail 65,000 cards indiscriminately with the same credit limit to every single customer

[00:31:23.49 - 00:31:28.93]

and say, have at it guys. And this is a brand new consumer behavior that they've heard about,

[00:31:28.97 - 00:31:34.47]

or they might've witnessed in one form or another, but now they have a bona fide charge plus credit

[00:31:34.47 - 00:31:38.11]

card sitting in their hands. You're going to lose a lot of money at first.

[00:31:38.71 - 00:31:44.51]

Yeah. Because there's another more pernicious way that this type of lending is different than the

[00:31:44.51 - 00:31:50.15]

previous type of lending that B of A was doing. It's unsecured. If you give a customer a loan to

[00:31:50.15 - 00:31:54.23]

go buy the refrigerator, you don't want to go repossess the refrigerator, but push comes to

[00:31:54.23 - 00:32:00.45]

shove, you can go repossess the refrigerator. This whole consumer credit card land is unsecured

[00:32:00.45 - 00:32:06.77]

lending. So you probably shouldn't apply the assumptions about your loss ratios from secured

[00:32:06.77 - 00:32:11.95]

lending to unsecured lending, but that is exactly what happened. And this all comes back to why

[00:32:11.95 - 00:32:18.99]

it really had to be bank of America to start this program because they do this, they do the drop in

[00:32:18.99 - 00:32:26.01]

Fresno, 65,000 unsolicited cards go out to unsuspecting consumers. Fraud is out of control.

[00:32:26.25 - 00:32:34.51]

$20 million of fraud within the first pilot program, 22% of the credit that they issued

[00:32:34.51 - 00:32:41.47]

to that initial Fresno cohort ends up being default or delinquent, which I think is like

[00:32:41.47 - 00:32:46.81]

five or six times what their delinquency rate was before on traditional lending.

[00:32:47.69 - 00:32:52.31]

Yeah, it is pretty crazy. So it's worth pointing out, we're talking a lot about credit and debt

[00:32:52.31 - 00:32:58.89]

at this point in time. And now in 2023, some of these kind of sound like bad words. And frankly,

[00:32:58.99 - 00:33:05.27]

it's because of the situation that the society has sort of like push Americans to, but it was

[00:33:05.27 - 00:33:11.77]

very different time back when credit cards were first getting started and when this sort of

[00:33:11.77 - 00:33:17.41]

practice of installment loans was extremely common in the pre-card era. So I want to read, there's a

[00:33:17.41 - 00:33:22.25]

great passage from a piece of the action that I mentioned earlier that I just want to read here.

[00:33:22.99 - 00:33:28.41]

Despite the denunciations, despite the free floating anxiety, Americans have always borrowed

[00:33:28.41 - 00:33:33.61]

money to buy things. If not from a bank, then from somebody, from a finance company or a credit union

[00:33:33.61 - 00:33:38.07]

or a department store or a loan shark for that matter. There isn't another Western country that

[00:33:38.07 - 00:33:44.65]

has relied so heavily on consumer credit. Between 1958 and 1990, there was never a year where the

[00:33:44.65 - 00:33:50.85]

amount of outstanding consumer debt wasn't higher than the year before. Years later, a Bank of

[00:33:50.85 - 00:33:55.11]

America executive could look back on his lifetime in the credit card industry and say proudly,

[00:33:55.49 - 00:34:00.67]

consumer credit built this country. Whatever one's feelings about personal debt is difficult

[00:34:00.67 - 00:34:05.75]

to disagree with this assertion. So interestingly, what's basically happening here is people are

[00:34:05.75 - 00:34:12.13]

using debt not because of this bleak, horrible time that they're in. It's actually because of

[00:34:12.13 - 00:34:17.75]

their optimism. They believe that the future is brighter than the present and so they're fine

[00:34:17.75 - 00:34:24.17]

taking on debt. And that is sort of what has sort of led us to today, where because the growth of

[00:34:24.17 - 00:34:29.87]

the American economy and the global economy has been so strong, people have always generally been

[00:34:29.87 - 00:34:34.59]

fine, or at least we exist in a system that teaches you you should kind of be fine betting

[00:34:34.59 - 00:34:40.79]

that the future is going to be better than today. Such a good point. As long as growth is happening

[00:34:40.79 - 00:34:48.81]

in an economy, a society, industry, whatever, you should absolutely use capital to fuel into that

[00:34:48.81 - 00:34:53.85]

growth. Yep. And that may not be true on an individual basis, but it is absolutely true on a

[00:34:53.85 - 00:34:59.01]

societal basis. Yep. So back to what I was saying about why B of A is so important. B of A can

[00:34:59.01 - 00:35:05.69]

absorb this loss. No other consumer bank at the time, if they had seen $20 million of losses in

[00:35:05.69 - 00:35:10.05]

like a set of months, they would have pulled the ripcord immediately. B of A, though, they can

[00:35:10.05 - 00:35:16.51]

absorb this loss, no problem. And they know if we can make this work, this is going to transform

[00:35:16.51 - 00:35:25.63]

our business. So rather than pulling the ripcord, they expand. They roll it out quickly across

[00:35:25.63 - 00:35:32.75]

the whole rest of California. Over the next year, all within the first year, they sign up 20,000

[00:35:34.15 - 00:35:38.23]

merchants in California and get this. Do you know how many cardholders they sign up in that first

[00:35:38.23 - 00:35:48.09]

year? No. 2 million California cardholders signed up using the card in the first year. It took Diners

[00:35:48.09 - 00:35:53.15]

Club years to get to a million. Amex was so proud in the first year or two, they get to 700,000.

[00:35:53.71 - 00:36:01.85]

B of A instantly, at scale, is the largest charge card, credit card program, certainly in America,

[00:36:02.63 - 00:36:09.89]

I suspect in the world. And that's one year and one state. This is like meta launching threads

[00:36:09.89 - 00:36:15.59]

or Microsoft launching teams. You can sort of sit back for a while and watch the innovation and

[00:36:15.59 - 00:36:21.01]

figure out what the very best product is that people want. And then you can go ram it through

[00:36:21.01 - 00:36:25.13]

your distribution channels when you invent one of your own. And it's even more than that. As we

[00:36:25.13 - 00:36:30.73]

said, this really was a big innovation. It wasn't just that they copied Amex and Diners Club or

[00:36:30.73 - 00:36:36.87]

anything else. They were adding credit to this. This was a huge innovation. So by 1961, year three

[00:36:36.87 - 00:36:42.93]

of the program, they're able to get fraud under control enough that the whole program is profitable.

[00:36:43.61 - 00:36:47.17]

But they keep that under their hats. Yes. They don't want anybody else to know about this.

[00:36:47.17 - 00:36:51.33]

So there's been all these newspaper articles about all this money that B of A is losing.

[00:36:51.55 - 00:36:56.29]

So many banks that had been thinking about launching a similar program abandoned it because

[00:36:56.29 - 00:37:00.51]

they were like, oh, man, we thought this was going to work, but clearly it's not working for B of A.

[00:37:00.59 - 00:37:05.59]

So people were shutting down their efforts. There was rumors that another bank was going to launch

[00:37:05.59 - 00:37:10.97]

in L.A., in San Francisco. And B of A had actually rushed theirs to market to go be sooner than these

[00:37:10.97 - 00:37:16.33]

other banks that actually never ended up launching because the market perception was that it was

[00:37:16.33 - 00:37:24.49]

such a gigantic failure. Here's a crazy stat. From 1960 to 1966. So this whole era is actually

[00:37:24.49 - 00:37:30.99]

a profitable era for B of A, but no one else knows it. There were only 10 new credit cards

[00:37:30.99 - 00:37:36.89]

introduced in the entire United States because they did such a good job keeping what became

[00:37:36.89 - 00:37:44.59]

a cash gusher for them quiet. But secret comes out in 1966. And from 1966 to 1968, just two years,

[00:37:44.59 - 00:37:51.03]

approximately 440 credit cards were introduced by banks large and small throughout the country.

[00:37:51.91 - 00:37:58.69]

Yes. And it is specifically 1966 when the secret gets out because phase two of Bank of America's

[00:37:58.69 - 00:38:06.03]

grandmaster plan here gets unveiled, which is maybe worth a quick setup. As we said,

[00:38:06.11 - 00:38:10.95]

this was transformative for their business in California, but they're the biggest bank in

[00:38:10.95 - 00:38:18.21]

and they have been itching for any kind of way to expand to truly be the Bank of America. Like,

[00:38:18.29 - 00:38:21.61]

why the hell did they change the name to Bank of America? It's not because they wanted to be

[00:38:21.61 - 00:38:27.95]

the Bank of California. So they're like, maybe this is our path. And California is only like

[00:38:27.95 - 00:38:36.47]

10% of the U.S. population. In 1966, they create the Bank Americard Service Organization

[00:38:37.43 - 00:38:46.85]

with the express purpose of licensing out the Bank Americard program and network to banks across

[00:38:46.85 - 00:38:53.69]

the country, across all 50 states. And this is the seed of Visa. But listeners, before we talk

[00:38:53.69 - 00:39:00.21]

about how the Bank Americard Licensing Association morphs into Visa, now is the perfect time to tell

[00:39:00.21 - 00:39:05.17]

you about one of our favorite companies, Blinkist and their new parent company, Go One, where David

[00:39:05.17 - 00:39:11.59]

and I are proud angel investors. Yes, Blinkist, as you know, takes books and condenses them into

[00:39:11.59 - 00:39:16.01]

the most important points so you can read or listen to the summaries. It's great if your job,

[00:39:16.15 - 00:39:20.45]

unlike ours, isn't just to sit around and read books all day, but you still want the amazing

[00:39:20.45 - 00:39:25.49]

insights. So as Blinkist has been doing throughout the season, they are creating blinks of our

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research books for each episode and making them available to you all for free. You can find our

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material for this episode, including Dave's awesome book and D. Hawk's memoir, one for many

[00:39:35.89 - 00:39:42.35]

at Blinkist.com slash Visa. Yep. And they have also created something very cool that I never

[00:39:42.35 - 00:39:48.59]

thought anyone would ask for from us. They created a page that represents David and my bookshelves.

[00:39:48.69 - 00:39:52.63]

So if you want to read our favorite books broadly, having nothing to do with this episode,

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but like literally what's behind me on that bookshelf that I feel are kind of our trophies

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from all the episodes that we have researched, you can go to Blinkist.com slash acquired and look

[00:40:02.19 - 00:40:08.35]

at Ben and David's bookshelf and you can get those for free. So beyond that, Blinkist is always giving

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acquired listeners an exclusive 50% discount on all their premium content, which is really great

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stuff. All these summaries and especially the audio summaries of really important books.

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Yeah. So many of you may be wondering why is Blinkist giving such an awesome deal to the

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acquired community? I don't say that tongue in cheek. It really is. The reason is that GoOne,

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where we're investors in which acquired them this year, is an amazing corporate learning and

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and GoOne. Go take advantage of all this free content by clicking the link in the show notes.

[00:41:11.49 - 00:41:18.15]

Okay, David. So how do we get to Visa? You have been telling me about the BankAmericard from Bank

[00:41:18.15 - 00:41:22.93]

of America, and I opened this show saying Visa's not a bank, and Visa doesn't have direct

[00:41:22.93 - 00:41:27.57]

relationships. It's this big indirect thing where they work with other banks. This is a big mismatch.

[00:41:28.33 - 00:41:35.19]

This story is so wild because this first chapter that we just told, there's only one entity in

[00:41:35.19 - 00:41:40.83]

the world that could have done this, Bank of America. In this second chapter, there is also

[00:41:40.83 - 00:41:46.41]

only one person in the world that could have taken BankAmericard and turned it into Visa,

[00:41:46.41 - 00:41:54.71]

and that is DHOC. So here we are in 1966. B of A now starts going around to all the other

[00:41:54.71 - 00:42:00.59]

consumer banks in other states and selling them on joining the network as BankAmericard

[00:42:00.59 - 00:42:09.13]

licensees. And the deal is that you pay B of A a $25,000 franchise fee to get your franchise of

[00:42:09.13 - 00:42:13.99]

the BankAmericard. This is like a Wendy's or something. Plus then you pay them a percentage

[00:42:13.99 - 00:42:19.91]

of the gross transaction revenues. It literally is like a McDonald's. This is wild. I mean,

[00:42:20.07 - 00:42:26.11]

I get the executives must have just been throwing party after party because A, this whole thing

[00:42:26.11 - 00:42:30.63]

turbocharged their own business. B, now they're like, oh, we're going to make all the other

[00:42:30.63 - 00:42:34.85]

consumer banks in the country essentially into like serfs on our kingdom here.

[00:42:35.49 - 00:42:39.25]

Right. And one of the assumptions they made was correct, and the other one was too hubris.

[00:42:39.25 - 00:42:44.73]

The first assumption is a good business model decision, which is, okay, we've now created this

[00:42:44.73 - 00:42:50.59]

distributed asset, which is all these customers with our card that want to use our card at lots

[00:42:50.59 - 00:42:54.95]

of merchants. People still weren't using credit cards the way we do today, just treating it like

[00:42:54.95 - 00:42:58.99]

cash and using it for coffees and little things here and there. It was still sort of treated as

[00:42:58.99 - 00:43:04.71]

this is the card for big purchases, some of which I may want to finance and decide later.

[00:43:04.71 - 00:43:10.61]

It was also an intensely private thing, kind of taboo thing, right? Because when you were using

[00:43:10.61 - 00:43:15.65]

a credit card in these days, you were implicitly saying, I'm using debt to buy this transaction.

[00:43:16.21 - 00:43:18.69]

And so you didn't want other people to necessarily know that.

[00:43:19.23 - 00:43:24.59]

Right. It's a bit odd, but consumers clearly did want to use this thing for some subset of

[00:43:24.59 - 00:43:28.61]

the purposes that they did today. And so Bank of America is kind of leaning into it and saying,

[00:43:28.61 - 00:43:35.33]

we've got this asset, surely we can leverage that for great gain. But the specific implementation

[00:43:35.33 - 00:43:39.67]

of it was a bad assumption where they said the way that we can take advantage of the fact that

[00:43:39.67 - 00:43:43.19]

now all these consumers have the card and all these merchants out there and accept the card

[00:43:43.19 - 00:43:47.11]

is this weird franchising thing. Well, the bad assumption was that

[00:43:47.11 - 00:43:52.01]

other banks would consent to basically being serfs in their kingdom.

[00:43:52.55 - 00:43:54.83]

Yes. But at the outset,

[00:43:55.39 - 00:44:00.53]

these other banks see the power and now that B of A is telling them of what this has done for B of A

[00:44:00.53 - 00:44:07.47]

and they're like, wow, this is already the biggest charge card credit network in America, if not the

[00:44:07.47 - 00:44:12.93]

world, we can now bring this to our state. And I think B of A offers exclusivity to banks in geographic

[00:44:12.93 - 00:44:17.97]

areas too to start. That eventually, of course, gets dropped, but it does tempt a lot of people.

[00:44:17.97 - 00:44:25.43]

So within two years, by 1968, a couple hundred banks have signed up. There are 6 million card

[00:44:25.43 - 00:44:30.15]

holders across the country and beyond the country. Actually, Barclays Bank in the UK

[00:44:30.69 - 00:44:34.31]

had signed up to be a franchisee of Bank of America back in the day.

[00:44:34.85 - 00:44:38.57]

Whoa, what year is this? This is like in the mid 60s.

[00:44:39.07 - 00:44:41.87]

Whoa, that's way earlier than I realized for international expansion.

[00:44:41.87 - 00:44:50.55]

Yeah, it was already out of the US because the system is a great system. But as this expands

[00:44:50.55 - 00:44:58.05]

beyond B of A, it becomes clear that a bunch of stuff that were either just assumptions or ways

[00:44:58.05 - 00:45:03.49]

of business within B of A or things they didn't have to worry about ain't going to scale to

[00:45:03.49 - 00:45:09.59]

hundreds of banks, all 50 states, multiple countries around the world. One of the examples

[00:45:09.59 - 00:45:16.47]

I alluded to this earlier, in California, in the Bank of America owned and operated Bank

[00:45:16.47 - 00:45:23.01]

AmeriCard system, usually all parties in the transaction were Bank of America customers.

[00:45:23.53 - 00:45:28.31]

So there wasn't really any difference between the bank of the consumer, the cardholder,

[00:45:28.59 - 00:45:34.55]

and the bank of the merchant. And B of A controlled both sides. Once they expand the

[00:45:34.55 - 00:45:38.39]

network and let other banks in, all of a sudden, that's almost never the case.

[00:45:39.11 - 00:45:45.27]

Right. B of A realized the cardinal sin of many entrepreneurs, which is my particular situation

[00:45:45.27 - 00:45:49.45]

is actually not a pattern of several other customers. It's actually an end of one.

[00:45:49.81 - 00:45:54.37]

I'm idiosyncratic. So when I'm just making the same assumptions about all the future customers

[00:45:54.37 - 00:45:57.07]

about serving my own needs, that's actually a false assumption.

[00:45:57.61 - 00:46:02.59]

Yep. So B of A has no distinction between what ultimately now in the Visa network and MasterCard

[00:46:02.59 - 00:46:07.73]

and others is called issuing banks. These are the banks that give the cards to the customers

[00:46:07.73 - 00:46:12.39]

and merchant banks that are the banks of the merchants. It's all just one for B of A.

[00:46:13.33 - 00:46:16.31]

Yes. And these merchant banks, we'll come back to some of this terminology later,

[00:46:16.61 - 00:46:19.43]

has gone on to become the acquiring bank because this is the

[00:46:19.43 - 00:46:22.73]

bank that acquires the merchant relationship as a customer.

[00:46:23.05 - 00:46:27.89]

So now in this new world where there's different banks on each side of the transaction,

[00:46:28.43 - 00:46:35.09]

this creates the need for a network and operational services to settle those transactions.

[00:46:35.09 - 00:46:42.75]

This comes to be known as interchange and interchange fees are obviously what Visa does today.

[00:46:43.57 - 00:46:46.97]

Yeah. And this is the first moment that we start to see a departure

[00:46:47.49 - 00:46:52.23]

from what American Express was doing. The original BankAmericard was very similar to

[00:46:52.23 - 00:46:57.75]

American Express and Diners Club, where they were closed loop systems. It was a bank that issued a

[00:46:57.75 - 00:47:02.39]

card to be used at a payment terminal that all stayed within the bank's closed loop network.

[00:47:02.39 - 00:47:08.97]

And now with this new BankAmericard licensee system that they're starting to develop here

[00:47:08.97 - 00:47:14.35]

that would become Visa, it's an open loop system. It's, hey, there's one bank on one side who owns

[00:47:14.35 - 00:47:19.07]

the customer, who owns the cardholder, and one bank on another side. And we're going to enable

[00:47:19.07 - 00:47:23.01]

those systems to talk to each other, but they're not the same party. This is open loop now.

[00:47:23.71 - 00:47:28.59]

So this interchange thing, all of the other banks that are now signing up to become

[00:47:29.15 - 00:47:34.27]

B of A franchisees for the BankAmericard system, they come to B of A and they're like,

[00:47:34.53 - 00:47:39.19]

hey, this whole thing is a problem. Bank of America isn't providing any service to do this.

[00:47:39.29 - 00:47:43.81]

There are also all these costs that these other banks are incurring because they need to figure

[00:47:43.81 - 00:47:48.43]

out this interchange thing. Oh, so the problem they're experiencing is like, hey, Bank of America,

[00:47:48.83 - 00:47:53.79]

how did you build all the technology to do this? And Bank of America's response is like,

[00:47:54.19 - 00:47:59.75]

we didn't have that problem because in our corner of the world, we're the bank on both sides.

[00:48:00.11 - 00:48:05.29]

Right. We're closed loop. So I don't know. You guys figure it out. This sounds like a you problem,

[00:48:05.29 - 00:48:09.99]

not a me problem. I see. So when these banks are coming to Bank of America,

[00:48:10.19 - 00:48:13.25]

they're not actually complaining about price in any way. They're literally just saying,

[00:48:13.33 - 00:48:17.19]

how do you solve this problem? No, I don't think price was an issue. I think it was this and like

[00:48:17.19 - 00:48:22.65]

a set of other things along these lines where the franchisees were like, hey, we signed up for a

[00:48:22.65 - 00:48:27.57]

franchise. You operate the whole system, right? And Bank of America was like, no, no, no,

[00:48:27.69 - 00:48:32.31]

we sold you a marketing system. I see. So it's like, you know, you buy McDonald's franchise

[00:48:32.31 - 00:48:35.83]

and they ship you some golden arches and they're like, good luck figuring out how to make cheese

[00:48:35.83 - 00:48:41.99]

burgers. That is exactly right. Okay. Now, to be somewhat fair to Bank of America here,

[00:48:42.65 - 00:48:49.39]

the golden arches are worth a lot. The Bank of America card, three colored bands, the blue,

[00:48:49.39 - 00:48:55.15]

white, and gold are also worth an incredible amount here. And of course, the ability to

[00:48:55.15 - 00:49:00.35]

actually be on the network that sends those payments, right? Yes, of course. The network

[00:49:00.35 - 00:49:06.65]

has incredible value, but back to the brand and the marketing. So as all these other banks are

[00:49:06.65 - 00:49:12.75]

considering whether to become franchisees of Bank of America card, and some of them are like, no,

[00:49:12.81 - 00:49:16.93]

I'm not going to do that. Some of the ones who do become franchisees, well, really all the ones who

[00:49:16.93 - 00:49:22.07]

become franchisees become very frustrated. Of course, people are going to start competing

[00:49:22.07 - 00:49:28.81]

systems. And right in this time, over this kind of year or two period, a bunch of local geographical

[00:49:28.81 - 00:49:35.43]

competing credit card systems by various bank consortiums come together. Those pretty quickly

[00:49:35.43 - 00:49:42.91]

all merge into a national association called Interbank, which, spoiler alert, Interbank is

[00:49:43.49 - 00:49:51.39]

MasterCard. But at this point in time, Interbank is a Franken network. There's no common brand,

[00:49:52.41 - 00:49:59.27]

mark, visual identity for all of these cards. So now you're trying to make this payments network

[00:49:59.27 - 00:50:04.65]

operate. How do you as a consumer know that my card that I got from XYZ, you know, I don't know,

[00:50:04.69 - 00:50:09.55]

Bank of Illinois, that's part of the Interbank network, supposedly. Now I go somewhere, I've

[00:50:09.55 - 00:50:14.41]

that card, it looks like one thing. I'm looking at this store, at this restaurant or whatever,

[00:50:14.53 - 00:50:18.07]

they've got a thing on the door that says they take something that looks totally different.

[00:50:18.61 - 00:50:22.29]

I don't know that this is going to work, even though it actually might work because it's part

[00:50:22.29 - 00:50:26.83]

of the MasterCard Interbank network. I see. It's like when I'm trying to figure out, like,

[00:50:26.87 - 00:50:31.09]

I have to keep pulling up Alaska Airlines partner network to figure out what international airline

[00:50:31.09 - 00:50:35.07]

I should fly since I pay no attention to anything other than, well, it's Alaska, you know,

[00:50:35.07 - 00:50:39.73]

is it one world? I don't, I still don't even know what the one world. Yeah. Yeah. And, you know,

[00:50:40.03 - 00:50:46.03]

that's today with the internet, you can do that. Back in the 1960s, there's literally no way for a

[00:50:46.03 - 00:50:50.27]

prospective customer of a merchant to know by looking at their card and looking at the sign

[00:50:50.27 - 00:50:57.03]

on the door, if that card is going to be accepted, unless they all have the same brand and mark.

[00:50:57.37 - 00:51:01.41]

It's so funny. This is the original problem of Diners Club, too, because Diners Club, they,

[00:51:01.41 - 00:51:07.99]

I think it was Diners Club that originally shipped a little folded thing that fit in your wallet with

[00:51:07.99 - 00:51:12.49]

the card. That was a little booklet that was a list of all the merchants. So you could literally

[00:51:12.49 - 00:51:16.57]

know if the card would be accepted at the restaurant you're at. That's right. But now,

[00:51:16.63 - 00:51:20.49]

like the scale that these networks are starting to be at, like, obviously, that's not tenable.

[00:51:20.93 - 00:51:26.73]

So back to the mark, what these franchisees are buying from Bank of America and what Bank of

[00:51:26.73 - 00:51:30.21]

America is like, hey, this is what we're selling you. It has value. It's access to the network,

[00:51:30.21 - 00:51:36.07]

but the network is homogenous. It all is the Bank of America name, brand, and importantly,

[00:51:36.27 - 00:51:40.35]

mark. So what are the colors of Visa? I'm sure everybody listening probably around the world

[00:51:40.35 - 00:51:44.03]

knows this. It's blue, white, and gold. Which is the hills of California, right?

[00:51:44.07 - 00:51:49.93]

There's this amazing origin story to this. It's super reminiscent to the Windows XP Bliss wallpaper,

[00:51:50.17 - 00:51:54.43]

you know, that is the most viewed photo in the world. You know, the hills. It's actually in

[00:51:54.43 - 00:51:59.51]

Sonoma, California. Huh. So the story is the B of A team, when they were first rolling out the

[00:51:59.51 - 00:52:05.57]

program, the guy tasked with card design, he lived in Pleasanton, California, in the East Bay,

[00:52:05.73 - 00:52:10.19]

the San Francisco Bay Area, where, you know, it's pleasant. And one fine spring morning,

[00:52:10.23 - 00:52:15.51]

he looks out his back door at the local hillside. The sky is this beautiful blue with white puffy

[00:52:15.51 - 00:52:20.83]

clouds, very much like the Windows XP Bliss background. And the hill is covered with

[00:52:20.83 - 00:52:27.91]

beautiful golden colored California poppies in bloom. He rushes back inside. He paints an

[00:52:27.91 - 00:52:35.07]

abstracted version of his beautiful hillside. Voila, the three bands, blue, white, gold,

[00:52:35.83 - 00:52:42.09]

Bank AmeriCard, Visa. And this would go on to be incredibly valuable to plaster on your storefront

[00:52:42.09 - 00:52:47.49]

and say, we accept Bank AmeriCard here. And that just means your sales are going to go up. Friction

[00:52:47.49 - 00:52:52.93]

to purchase goods goes down. Customers are excited to spend with you because their shiny, cool thing

[00:52:52.93 - 00:52:57.17]

that they like spending money on works there. And it's good for your business to be able to accept

[00:52:57.17 - 00:53:02.19]

it. It's so wild that today, you know, we would think, oh, what's a moat? What's a competitive

[00:53:02.19 - 00:53:07.55]

advantage? What's durable? You know, you need technology advantage. You know, even how we

[00:53:07.55 - 00:53:11.01]

think of brand, all the companies we've covered on the show, it's so much more than this, but it was

[00:53:11.01 - 00:53:17.09]

so simple back in the day. It was just, could you create a two-sided network where there was a common

[00:53:17.71 - 00:53:23.87]

signal of acceptance? Yep. So from B of A's perspective, they're like, yeah, we did all

[00:53:23.87 - 00:53:28.97]

the work. We created this. This is what you are franchising from us. Take it or leave it.

[00:53:29.47 - 00:53:33.45]

From the franchisee's perspective, as we were talking about, they're like, you gave us a

[00:53:33.45 - 00:53:38.89]

marketing program. How do we run this damn thing? Okay. So they got this marketing program. How did

[00:53:38.89 - 00:53:43.93]

it literally work? Because this is pre-magnetic stripe. Yeah. There's no technology here. I mean,

[00:53:43.95 - 00:53:49.05]

this is literally like, cool. I've become a Bank of America licensee. What transactions does that

[00:53:49.05 - 00:53:54.69]

let me do? And how does that happen? So the banks, they have to resort all the way back to how

[00:53:54.69 - 00:54:00.81]

checks worked back in like the, you know, 1800s, early 1900s in the U.S. where it was all

[00:54:00.81 - 00:54:07.13]

decentralized. The bank would go sign up a merchant in their local town. Yep. And the banks would take

[00:54:07.13 - 00:54:14.01]

the sales drafts from their merchants that the merchants had brought to them. And then they would

[00:54:14.01 - 00:54:21.77]

kind of individually decentralized mail around the country to the issuing banks, the cardholder banks

[00:54:21.77 - 00:54:26.33]

to get the money. And they just, the way they've financed all this was a discount fee, just like

[00:54:26.33 - 00:54:31.39]

checks back in the day. Like, oh, hey, this sales draft is for $100. This is all really hard to

[00:54:31.39 - 00:54:38.03]

figure out. So like, okay, you give me $97 instead, or you give me $90 instead. And there was no

[00:54:38.03 - 00:54:41.83]

standardization. It wasn't like a set discount fee. It was just whatever they negotiated with

[00:54:41.83 - 00:54:48.11]

one another. So the sales drafts get handed to the licensee. So you've got, let's say you're

[00:54:48.11 - 00:54:51.53]

running a department store and keep going with the Illinois example that you said. So you're

[00:54:51.53 - 00:54:56.19]

running a Chicago department store. After a whole day of sales, you've got a bunch of sales drafts

[00:54:56.19 - 00:55:00.51]

where you say, all these customers came in with BankAmericard. They said they're good for the

[00:55:00.51 - 00:55:05.17]

money. So I gave them the goods. And now I'm holding the sales drafts. I actually have no

[00:55:05.17 - 00:55:09.69]

idea if they were good for the money. But the fact that I have a sales draft and the fact that

[00:55:09.69 - 00:55:14.05]

I, the merchant, have a contract with a bank and that bank has a contract with Bank of America

[00:55:14.05 - 00:55:20.21]

means that I feel very good that I'm going to get my, you know, 93 cents on the dollar or whatever.

[00:55:20.45 - 00:55:27.39]

So then the bank is responsible, probably. Yeah. So the merchant bank, that acquiring bank,

[00:55:27.87 - 00:55:34.29]

mails all those effectively invoices to all the other banks that the people who bought the goods

[00:55:34.29 - 00:55:39.25]

there to their banks with their cards. And there was no standardized discount.

[00:55:39.77 - 00:55:46.11]

Ah, this is ludicrously expensive. Totally. I mean, it's chaos. People are so pissed. And again,

[00:55:46.15 - 00:55:49.65]

B of A is like, yeah, whatever. Yeah, whatever. For us, we just moved a few numbers internally.

[00:55:49.79 - 00:55:53.79]

We actually didn't have to do any of this. And you all are paying us now money. So like

[00:55:53.79 - 00:55:59.91]

our empire dreams are coming true. Wow. This is maybe painting Bank of America into

[00:55:59.91 - 00:56:05.75]

poor light. You know, like I said, nobody knew this is the first time that a banking

[00:56:06.51 - 00:56:12.15]

charge card credit card system is operating at scale in the country. And even though Bank of

[00:56:12.15 - 00:56:15.31]

America had been operating for a couple of years internally to B of A in California,

[00:56:15.51 - 00:56:19.33]

now it's going across state lines. This had never been a problem before, you know,

[00:56:19.35 - 00:56:22.51]

the merchant banks versus the consumer banks, the issuing banks, et cetera.

[00:56:23.15 - 00:56:32.21]

Right. So all of these tensions come to a head in October 1968, when the licensees,

[00:56:32.51 - 00:56:35.63]

all the franchisees of Bank of America, all these other banks across the country,

[00:56:35.99 - 00:56:41.09]

they demand a summit. They need to air their grievances with, you know, the parent with Bank

[00:56:41.09 - 00:56:47.35]

of America. This is untenable. We can't operate like this. We got to fix this. B of A says, OK,

[00:56:47.35 - 00:56:56.01]

fine. We'll all get together in Columbus, Ohio. Really? You didn't know this? No. I thought you

[00:56:56.01 - 00:57:02.07]

knew this. Yeah. Columbus, Ohio. Ohio State. Oh, wow. Amazing. This is where the birth of Visa

[00:57:02.07 - 00:57:08.51]

happens. So the summit gets organized. And for the franchisee banks, this is sort of becoming

[00:57:08.51 - 00:57:13.37]

existential for their businesses. They're racking up such huge losses. This is such chaos. They're

[00:57:13.37 - 00:57:18.43]

sending senior representatives from the banks, everybody running their card programs. Everybody's

[00:57:18.43 - 00:57:25.33]

converging in Columbus. B of A sends to like mid-level marketing managers to go face the

[00:57:25.33 - 00:57:31.07]

angry mob. None of the senior executives from B of A could be bothered enough to go deal with this.

[00:57:31.47 - 00:57:36.59]

Wow. Which just says everything. And these poor guys who show up, I mean, they are literally

[00:57:36.59 - 00:57:44.01]

facing pitchforks. The franchisees are incensed. And they're incensed both because the situation

[00:57:44.01 - 00:57:51.41]

sucks and they're like, God damn it, B of A, take us seriously. You have meddled in our entire

[00:57:51.41 - 00:57:58.57]

businesses. This is in chaos. We got to fix this. So what do these two poor B of A guys do?

[00:57:59.01 - 00:58:04.01]

Right before lunch on the second day, they're like, yo, we got to save our skins. We got to

[00:58:04.01 - 00:58:08.65]

get out of here. Let's do the smart thing to make sure that everybody gets placated,

[00:58:08.85 - 00:58:13.03]

but nothing actually happens because they don't have any authorization from Bank of America to

[00:58:13.03 - 00:58:18.49]

do anything. They're just the people sent to face the mob. Let's appoint a committee

[00:58:19.71 - 00:58:26.51]

of licensees to quote, unquote, investigate all of the operating problems and report back to us.

[00:58:26.87 - 00:58:31.51]

You know, they can come out to San Francisco. They can meet us at B of A headquarters and we'll

[00:58:31.51 - 00:58:40.29]

listen to their problems. Wow. But unfortunately for their goals, their very narrow goals that

[00:58:40.29 - 00:58:47.05]

particular morning, but very, very fortunately for all involved, the franchisees, the world,

[00:58:47.57 - 00:58:53.63]

consumers. In the long term, at least. In the long term and also Bank of America in the long term.

[00:58:54.49 - 00:59:01.83]

One of the people that gets put on that committee is the Bank of America franchisee program manager

[00:59:01.83 - 00:59:08.59]

from a small bank in Seattle, the Seattle National Bank of Commerce, which would go on to become

[00:59:08.59 - 00:59:13.59]

Rainier Bank. And then ironically, do you know what happened to Rainier Bank? You can't make

[00:59:13.59 - 00:59:19.11]

this stuff up. No, I don't, but I can guess where this is going. Yep. Once interstate banking

[00:59:19.11 - 00:59:25.59]

regulations get loosened up, they get acquired by Bank of America, of course, in the 1990s.

[00:59:26.49 - 00:59:34.05]

But for the moment, the person running their Bank of America card franchisee program is one D.

[00:59:34.59 - 00:59:39.73]

Hawk. And I think you could really say on this day, the founder of Visa.

[00:59:40.65 - 00:59:46.09]

And one of the most interesting characters in anything we've ever studied, because he's not

[00:59:46.09 - 00:59:52.59]

a tycoon the way that most of these people are. No. And we're gonna talk much more about D in a

[00:59:52.59 - 00:59:55.71]

minute, but just to keep the story going so we don't leave you all in suspense on this day.

[00:59:56.27 - 01:00:02.19]

During the lunch break, D has gotten put on this committee. He goes up to the two B of A guys and

[01:00:02.19 - 01:00:07.99]

he's like, hey, rather than us just putting together a list of grievances and reporting

[01:00:07.99 - 01:00:15.79]

back to you at B of A, what if instead we do examine all the problems in this system?

[01:00:16.75 - 01:00:24.45]

But what if we ourselves, this committee, we design and propose a new way of operating the

[01:00:24.45 - 01:00:32.57]

whole thing? And after some convincing, the B of A guys are like, eh, sure. I mean, they're not

[01:00:32.57 - 01:00:39.59]

agreeing to anything. Their goal is just to escape the mob anyway. They're like, whatever. If this

[01:00:39.59 - 01:00:46.39]

makes you happy, if this lets us escape back to California, sure. And probably, almost assuredly,

[01:00:46.49 - 01:00:52.67]

I mean, this is a committee we're talking about. Nothing is gonna come of this. Yep. So the whole

[01:00:52.67 - 01:00:59.75]

summit reconvenes after lunch and D gets up on stage, not the Bank of America guys, and he

[01:00:59.75 - 01:01:07.45]

proposes this idea to the group. Say, hey, we've got this committee. Rather than us taking a list

[01:01:07.45 - 01:01:13.37]

of grievances back to B of A, what if we try and design a new way that the system could operate

[01:01:13.37 - 01:01:20.91]

and operate better for everyone? They take a vote on it. Everybody agrees. Mostly, I think, just

[01:01:20.91 - 01:01:25.79]

because they wanted to get out of there, go back home and away from this disaster of a meeting.

[01:01:26.31 - 01:01:31.15]

They all get on planes. They all leave, most of them probably thinking that nothing is ever going

[01:01:31.15 - 01:01:35.15]

to come of this. Certainly the B of A guys thinking nothing is ever going to come of this.

[01:01:35.95 - 01:01:45.01]

But D kind of thinks he just got authorization to go create Visa. Whole new system. And he has

[01:01:45.01 - 01:01:52.03]

no power at this point, but he kind of thinks he does. And listeners, now is a great time to tell

[01:01:52.03 - 01:01:58.59]

you about our next favorite company, Crusoe. Yes. Crusoe, as you know by now, is a cloud provider

[01:01:58.59 - 01:02:04.41]

specifically built for AI workloads powered by clean energy. Today, right in theme with Visa,

[01:02:04.41 - 01:02:09.31]

we are talking about reliability and some of those details of Crusoe's infrastructure.

[01:02:09.77 - 01:02:13.51]

So by this point, you know that their cloud is run on wasted, stranded, or clean energy,

[01:02:13.65 - 01:02:17.73]

and they can provide significantly better performance for your dollar than traditional

[01:02:17.73 - 01:02:23.01]

cloud providers. So how do they do it? It is a little bit more than just saying they put data

[01:02:23.01 - 01:02:27.71]

centers next to natural gas flares or stranded energy from wind turbines. I mean, that insight

[01:02:27.71 - 01:02:33.05]

alone has value, but this is insanely difficult to pull off, to build this multi-tenant architecture

[01:02:33.05 - 01:02:37.89]

at scale and implement things like InfiniBand with rail optimization. So here are some of the

[01:02:37.89 - 01:02:44.21]

things that Crusoe's team has had to do and why it required people with backgrounds in data centers,

[01:02:44.39 - 01:02:48.53]

oil fields, utilities, networking software, and manufacturing all working together to do it.

[01:02:48.77 - 01:02:54.33]

So one, they have to trench high bandwidth fiber themselves. And as you might imagine,

[01:02:54.45 - 01:02:59.11]

putting a data center in a remote location, that is not just magically next to an ISP that you get

[01:02:59.11 - 01:03:04.77]

plug it into and have redundancy. Two, rugged infrastructure. Not only do they need to custom

[01:03:04.77 - 01:03:08.59]

design the data center architecture to let customers eke out every ounce of performance,

[01:03:08.83 - 01:03:13.81]

it also needs to work in these locations. They initially worked with external vendors,

[01:03:13.95 - 01:03:18.55]

but they've now started something called Crusoe Industries, which manufactures a majority of their

[01:03:18.55 - 01:03:24.31]

mobile and modular data centers and electrical equipment themselves. And three is operations.

[01:03:24.31 - 01:03:29.83]

Things go wrong out in the field, especially in remote locations. And Crusoe has a fault tolerant

[01:03:29.83 - 01:03:34.15]

organization that is able to plan for the maintenance and repairs and manage the failures

[01:03:34.15 - 01:03:39.87]

when they do inevitably happen. So the team has deep data center operations expertise to ensure

[01:03:39.87 - 01:03:44.91]

that customer AI workloads operate seamlessly when minimal disruption, and they really do

[01:03:44.91 - 01:03:50.03]

plan for these things to happen and have great redundancy in place. It's so cool. I mean,

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ultimately, this results in a huge win-win. They take what is otherwise a huge amount of

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energy waste and environmental harm, and they use it to power massive AI workloads.

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slash acquired, C-R-U-S-O-E cloud.com slash acquired, or click the link in the show notes.

[01:04:14.65 - 01:04:19.65]

Okay, so David DeHawk thinks he's got a mandate to go change things up in a big way and create

[01:04:19.65 - 01:04:26.13]

some big, crazy new proposal. Yeah, and he's not wrong. Fortune favors the bold, you know,

[01:04:26.17 - 01:04:27.39]

might you say? Yes.

[01:04:28.05 - 01:04:34.15]

So to say a few more words about why this is so hard to organize this group of now competing banks

[01:04:34.15 - 01:04:38.77]

to collaborate with one another, you've got multiple banks in the same state that are part

[01:04:38.77 - 01:04:43.49]

of this system. Let's take Illinois again to stick with this. You've got a bunch of banks in Illinois

[01:04:43.49 - 01:04:48.47]

that are now all part of the BankAmericard payment network, which is intimately linked

[01:04:48.47 - 01:04:54.85]

with their banking operations. If I'm any one of those banks, I would want to say like, hey,

[01:04:54.93 - 01:04:59.21]

no, I want to be the only bank in Illinois doing this. And okay, maybe there are a few others here

[01:04:59.21 - 01:05:03.29]

with me, but I sure as hell want to shut the door to anybody else coming in and being part of this

[01:05:03.29 - 01:05:09.49]

network. Whereas when you think about growing the value and power of the network, you want as many

[01:05:09.49 - 01:05:14.21]

merchants and cardholders in the system as possible. And the merchants obviously want as

[01:05:14.21 - 01:05:18.67]

many cardholders as possible. And the cardholders obviously want as many merchants as possible.

[01:05:19.67 - 01:05:25.37]

That means that you need all the banks because you need all the merchants, you need all the

[01:05:25.37 - 01:05:29.71]

customers, you need all the banks. And you basically want it to happen as fast as possible.

[01:05:29.91 - 01:05:36.49]

So maybe if you only allow, you know, 20% of the banks in America or 20% of the banks in a state

[01:05:36.49 - 01:05:40.91]

to be members of this thing, eventually they could sort of bootstrap the whole network. But

[01:05:40.91 - 01:05:46.29]

it takes a lot of time to go door to door to door to door. And maybe that particular merchant doesn't

[01:05:46.29 - 01:05:49.61]

want to take on a second banking relationship. They already have one. They're good.

[01:05:50.49 - 01:05:55.37]

Totally. This is a classic two-sided network. You want to race to get ubiquity as fast as possible

[01:05:55.37 - 01:06:03.39]

on both sides of the network. Yep. So as D goes off and reflects on all this, he realizes that

[01:06:03.39 - 01:06:11.55]

the fundamental problem is you've got this huge and diverse set of banks that both directly

[01:06:11.55 - 01:06:18.13]

compete with one another. But also, if they're gonna make this thing actually work, they need

[01:06:18.13 - 01:06:24.79]

to collaborate and work together. And that sounds like a really, really, really difficult problem to

[01:06:24.79 - 01:06:30.35]

solve. Even if you could do that, how are you going to get the DOJ to let you do that? Antitrust is

[01:06:30.35 - 01:06:38.63]

going to be an issue here for sure. But, and this is D, he's like, okay, if though, if we could do

[01:06:38.63 - 01:06:46.83]

this, what is the opportunity? Well, we've seen what the opportunity is for Bank of America. That

[01:06:46.83 - 01:06:54.35]

is the shining case study. So at a minimum, this could do for all the other banks in the world,

[01:06:54.35 - 01:07:02.37]

what it has done for Bank of America. But even more than that though, Bank of America was trying

[01:07:02.37 - 01:07:09.89]

to stretch here. They got greedy to a certain extent in franchising this out to other banks.

[01:07:10.45 - 01:07:16.37]

But other banks signed up for this and they were willing to pay both a franchise fee and a

[01:07:16.37 - 01:07:24.19]

percentage of transaction volume to Bank of America because the siren song, the reward of

[01:07:24.19 - 01:07:28.99]

doing this was so great to them. And frankly, all powered by the fact that this is what consumers

[01:07:28.99 - 01:07:33.99]

want. Yes, absolutely. So in a certain way, this is sort of, I don't want to say inevitable,

[01:07:33.99 - 01:07:38.71]

because this is definitely not inevitable. But again, in the thought exercise of could you do

[01:07:38.71 - 01:07:46.93]

this? The actual organization itself, like the network, would have so much value. You know,

[01:07:46.97 - 01:07:52.21]

if you could get every bank in America, and then every bank in the world, and D is thinking big

[01:07:52.21 - 01:07:57.65]

from the beginning, to be part of this, and you could power this global payments and credit network

[01:07:57.65 - 01:08:05.57]

and you were allowed to take a fee on the transaction volume for doing that, the value

[01:08:05.57 - 01:08:11.71]

that you would unlock and generate, it beggars the imagination to think about what this could be.

[01:08:12.53 - 01:08:17.35]

And if we could grow the pie enough, would B of A be comfortable not owning the whole thing?

[01:08:17.57 - 01:08:22.47]

That's the bottom line here. So there's this great passage from him in his book, One for Many. He

[01:08:22.47 - 01:08:28.23]

says, any organization that could guarantee transport and settle transactions in the form

[01:08:28.23 - 01:08:33.99]

of arranged electronic particles, that's what he calls digital information, amazing, 24 hours a day,

[01:08:33.99 - 01:08:40.23]

seven days a week around the globe, would have a market. Every exchange of value in the world

[01:08:40.23 - 01:08:45.85]

that beggared the imagination. The necessary technology had been discovered and would be

[01:08:45.85 - 01:08:52.15]

available in geometrically increasing abundance at geometrically diminishing costs. But there

[01:08:52.15 - 01:08:58.81]

was a problem. No bank could do it. No hierarchical stock corporation could do it. No nation state

[01:08:58.81 - 01:09:04.27]

could do it. In fact, no existing form of organization we could think of could do it.

[01:09:04.75 - 01:09:09.83]

On a hunch, I made an estimate of the financial resources of all the banks in the world.

[01:09:10.21 - 01:09:18.01]

It dwarfed the resources of most nations. Jointly, they could do it. But how? It would require a

[01:09:18.01 - 01:09:25.47]

transcendental organization linking together in wholly new ways an unimaginable complex of diverse

[01:09:25.47 - 01:09:30.29]

institutions and individuals. This is the opportunity. And this is what he essentially

[01:09:30.29 - 01:09:37.85]

takes to Bank of America. And now we got to say a few words about D because this situation is nuts.

[01:09:38.11 - 01:09:46.05]

D is a banker. He is running the Bank of America franchise program at what would become Rainier

[01:09:46.05 - 01:09:52.97]

Bank in Seattle. But he's an outsider. He's kind of a nobody. He's not senior in a small bank

[01:09:52.97 - 01:09:59.25]

in Seattle. He was raised in rural Utah, basically in poverty during the depression.

[01:09:59.85 - 01:10:05.39]

He didn't go to a four-year college. He only has an associate's degree. He bounced around in a

[01:10:05.39 - 01:10:11.61]

bunch of random consumer finance jobs on the West Coast, all of which he got fired from because he's

[01:10:11.61 - 01:10:17.79]

too insubordinate. He now walking into the boardroom in Bank of America, which is what he's

[01:10:17.79 - 01:10:23.23]

going to do, and standing toe-to-toe with the vice chairman of Bank of America and saying,

[01:10:23.95 - 01:10:31.37]

I think you should give me the Bank of America card program because it is in your self-interest

[01:10:31.37 - 01:10:36.31]

to do so, which almost literally are the words that come out of his mouth in that boardroom,

[01:10:36.61 - 01:10:40.51]

is just absolutely wild. Fortune favors the bold.

[01:10:40.65 - 01:10:43.87]

Fortune favors the bold. Importantly, though, fortune favors the bold

[01:10:44.43 - 01:10:50.25]

who have done the work to figure out how to align incentives such that a logical person will think

[01:10:50.25 - 01:10:55.61]

through and come to the same conclusion he has. This is the thing. Dee is an odd duck for sure,

[01:10:55.95 - 01:11:00.37]

but he is amazingly smart. He's basically all self-taught. He's incredibly well-read.

[01:11:00.75 - 01:11:05.39]

He started reading every book on his little farm in Utah that he could get his hands on when he

[01:11:05.39 - 01:11:10.71]

was seven years old. Super importantly, this is a Steve Jobs, you can only connect the dots looking

[01:11:10.71 - 01:11:17.35]

backward moment. He was not very good at sports in high school, so he got into debate instead.

[01:11:17.91 - 01:11:22.67]

And then he also did debate in college when he did his associate's degree. And so he uses all

[01:11:22.67 - 01:11:29.09]

of the techniques that he learned from competitive debate and persuasion. He has this amazing quote.

[01:11:29.21 - 01:11:34.41]

He says, during my years of college debate, I held fast to the notion that until someone

[01:11:34.41 - 01:11:39.89]

has repeatedly said no and adamantly refuses another word on the subject, they are in the

[01:11:39.89 - 01:11:49.11]

process of saying yes and don't know it. I mean, Dee basically is the prototypical

[01:11:49.11 - 01:11:54.07]

Silicon Valley founder. He's just a generation too early and in the wrong industry.

[01:11:54.81 - 01:11:59.23]

I once had a Silicon Valley founder give a talk at a startup weekend I ran 10, 12 years ago,

[01:11:59.23 - 01:12:03.51]

who said, until your company shuts down, you are just in the act of succeeding.

[01:12:03.85 - 01:12:08.77]

Totally. Cut from the same cloth, right down to every single stitch.

[01:12:09.65 - 01:12:16.71]

There's one other important aspect to Dee that I think we should highlight here that enables him

[01:12:17.33 - 01:12:24.25]

and all of Visa to succeed. And that's that he's about as far from the man and image of JP Morgan

[01:12:24.25 - 01:12:31.99]

as you could imagine. That is what enables this. Because if he were the CEO of another bank or a

[01:12:31.99 - 01:12:38.53]

senior executive or some well-respected person marching into the Bank of America boardroom,

[01:12:38.77 - 01:12:47.53]

and standing toe to toe with their board and saying, I want you to give me your very precious

[01:12:47.53 - 01:12:53.49]

crown jewel. There's no way it would work. Of course, Bank of America would say, what's in it

[01:12:53.49 - 01:12:58.37]

for you? I don't trust you. I don't believe you. Even if they did trust and believe this person,

[01:12:58.79 - 01:13:05.21]

they would lose all of their face and reputation if they were subordinating themselves to somebody

[01:13:05.21 - 01:13:11.99]

who could conceivably be their equal. So Dee's just gone into B of A with this grand vision of

[01:13:12.57 - 01:13:18.95]

you should give me this incredible asset because the value that it will create outside of your

[01:13:18.95 - 01:13:23.71]

hands and your fractional ownership thereof will be so much greater than what it could be on its

[01:13:23.71 - 01:13:31.37]

own. And miraculously, that works. Would you rather own a few percent of something that is

[01:13:31.37 - 01:13:34.89]

the default global way that commerce is produced, or would you rather own

[01:13:34.89 - 01:13:42.67]

a hundred percent of Bank of America cards? Yep. Totally incredible that Dee actually

[01:13:42.67 - 01:13:46.87]

convinces Bank of America to do this. Nobody in the world would have thought that this could happen.

[01:13:48.29 - 01:13:53.67]

But now the work is sort of just beginning because there's two things now that he needs to do. One,

[01:13:54.05 - 01:13:58.37]

he hasn't actually figured out how to architect this thing such that it works. So he's got to

[01:13:58.37 - 01:14:04.99]

do that. Two, though, then now he has to go back to all of the soon-to-be former franchisee banks

[01:14:05.45 - 01:14:09.81]

and convince them why they should do this. And this is a different argument from what he made

[01:14:09.81 - 01:14:16.45]

to B of A. B of A, he's trying to get them to give him the asset. With the other banks, he actually

[01:14:16.45 - 01:14:22.65]

needs to get them to change their behavior. He needs to be able to go to, say, the couple banks

[01:14:22.65 - 01:14:28.55]

in Illinois that are existing franchisees of the Bank of America card system and say,

[01:14:29.21 - 01:14:34.37]

hey, the new regulations, the new operating laws for this organization are going to be all the

[01:14:34.37 - 01:14:40.29]

banks in Illinois can join. And we actively want to go convince all of your competitors to come

[01:14:40.29 - 01:14:45.35]

join this system. I see. So he's basically coming to them with a waiver and saying, I want you to

[01:14:45.35 - 01:14:51.81]

waive your exclusivity to some territory because in our new construct here where we're all working

[01:14:51.81 - 01:14:57.65]

together, you and everyone else is agreeing that it's good for the value of us all if we waive

[01:14:57.65 - 01:15:02.29]

our exclusivity. You know what this is like? This is like back in our NFL episode. Yes,

[01:15:02.49 - 01:15:06.49]

that's exactly right. When the NFL started negotiating national television rights

[01:15:06.49 - 01:15:12.09]

collectively as an organization. Yep. A bunch of the individual teams hated that because they were

[01:15:12.09 - 01:15:17.79]

like, if I'm the Jets, I'm making more money in my New York metro area doing my own TV deals

[01:15:17.79 - 01:15:23.55]

than I'm going to get as a share from you, the NFL of a national deal. But in the long run,

[01:15:24.05 - 01:15:28.43]

it was absolutely the right decision and value accretive to everybody, including the Jets,

[01:15:28.57 - 01:15:33.55]

that the NFL centralized this. You'd rather be the Jets with their proportional share of the

[01:15:33.55 - 01:15:41.51]

$14 billion a year TV deal that the NFL has today than whatever their very fat contract was alone

[01:15:41.51 - 01:15:47.91]

in what the 60s, 70s. Totally. It is exactly the same thing here. Okay. So how's this whole thing

[01:15:47.91 - 01:15:53.81]

going to work? D and a few of his other fellow committee members, they go to Sausalito,

[01:15:54.25 - 01:15:58.71]

California, just north of San Francisco, just across the Golden Gate Bridge. And they do an

[01:15:58.71 - 01:16:04.31]

offsite for a couple of days at a hotel in Sausalito. And there they come up with a number

[01:16:04.31 - 01:16:11.13]

of operating regulations guidelines for this hypothetical new entity, four of which we're

[01:16:11.13 - 01:16:16.67]

going to talk about here that are super critical. One ownership of this new organization, that's

[01:16:16.67 - 01:16:22.31]

going to be called National Bank of AmeriCard Inc. The new owner of the Bank of AmeriCard program

[01:16:22.97 - 01:16:29.77]

is going to be in the form of irrevocable, non-transferable rights of participation.

[01:16:30.47 - 01:16:36.41]

So you're not going to own stock in this thing. There's no equity. The way that you have ownership

[01:16:36.41 - 01:16:43.03]

and the percentage ownership that you have in the network is by participating in it,

[01:16:43.15 - 01:16:49.91]

and the amount of volume that you are contributing to the network. Oh, interesting. So this means a

[01:16:49.91 - 01:16:55.09]

couple of things. One, it's sort of like a representation and ownership according to

[01:16:55.09 - 01:17:02.85]

value contributed. Two, it's non-transferable. So you can't sell it. Any individual bank,

[01:17:02.85 - 01:17:06.79]

if they were to say like, oh, this is valuable now, I'm going to go sell it. And then I no longer

[01:17:06.79 - 01:17:11.47]

have any incentive to participate in the network. If that starts happening, then it'll lead to a

[01:17:11.47 - 01:17:15.73]

cascade for the exits and the network will lose value. So there's no way to do that.

[01:17:16.41 - 01:17:21.09]

So it's basically designed for you to kind of break even on it. If you're putting in 17% of

[01:17:21.09 - 01:17:25.45]

the transactions on the whole network and you're paying in fees on 17% of the transaction, well,

[01:17:25.53 - 01:17:31.35]

good news for all of the leftover profits from running the network, 17% of them go back to you.

[01:17:31.35 - 01:17:36.93]

You're making the assumption that this is a cost only organization, forgetting the fact that it is

[01:17:36.93 - 01:17:43.05]

one of the greatest business models and revenue generators of all time. You are contributing 17%

[01:17:43.05 - 01:17:48.65]

of the volume to this. You are entitled to 17% of the profits. I see. That we are extracting

[01:17:48.65 - 01:17:55.49]

from the merchants and the cardholders. Yep. Because this is the natural business model

[01:17:55.49 - 01:17:59.65]

of interchange to do the exact same things that was being done with the sales drafts,

[01:17:59.65 - 01:18:03.59]

where you sort of give a discount to the retailer. And when I say discount,

[01:18:03.65 - 01:18:07.35]

I don't mean a beneficial one. I mean, I'm discounting the amount of money that I am giving

[01:18:07.35 - 01:18:12.39]

you off of the 100% that you would have received by the customer. Basically taking that old check

[01:18:12.39 - 01:18:18.49]

courier business model and carrying it into sort of a network form. Yep, exactly. So the actual

[01:18:18.49 - 01:18:24.71]

legal structure that D and his fellow committee members land on for this is a for-profit,

[01:18:25.27 - 01:18:31.51]

non-stock membership corporation. That is a mouthful. It is. There's a myth out there that

[01:18:31.51 - 01:18:36.91]

Visa was originally a non-profit and then was converted to a for-profit before the IPO in 2008.

[01:18:37.23 - 01:18:44.01]

That's not true. It was always for-profit. It was just a non-stock membership corporation.

[01:18:44.39 - 01:18:50.13]

And that was to get around banks selling their interest. So you don't participate in it,

[01:18:50.13 - 01:18:57.99]

you don't own it. So say it one more time. It is a for-profit. A for-profit, non-stock

[01:18:59.15 - 01:19:04.53]

membership corporation. Your ownership is your membership. Fascinating. It's like a co-op. It's

[01:19:04.53 - 01:19:08.67]

like REI or something like that. Yeah, yeah. The way that D describes it to all the other banks is

[01:19:08.67 - 01:19:14.55]

it is a reverse holding company. The parent entity is owned by the subordinate members,

[01:19:14.55 - 01:19:17.97]

as opposed to the top level holding company owning all the subordinates.

[01:19:17.97 - 01:19:23.05]

There's actually another NFL analogy here. The NFL doesn't own the teams. The team owners own

[01:19:23.05 - 01:19:28.81]

the NFL. Yes, but the NFL sets all the regulations for how the game is played and all the teams

[01:19:28.81 - 01:19:34.63]

submit to it. That's actually probably the best analogy for Visa as the NFL league organization.

[01:19:35.15 - 01:19:40.19]

I think it totally is. Okay, so that's point number one. Maybe the most important one.

[01:19:40.75 - 01:19:49.01]

Point number two. It is a self-organizing body with irrevocable governance rights for each

[01:19:49.01 - 01:19:54.95]

member. And this is, well, I guess also how it's like the NFL. Basically, this means this is a

[01:19:54.95 - 01:20:02.65]

democracy. Every member has a vote in determining how this organization runs. Anything that you

[01:20:02.65 - 01:20:06.71]

could conceivably have a vote on, changing our regulations, setting them in the first place,

[01:20:06.71 - 01:20:14.53]

budgets, fees, all this stuff, every single member bank will have a vote. And importantly,

[01:20:15.03 - 01:20:21.09]

every single member bank can call a vote at any time. I mean, it's literally like a pure democracy.

[01:20:21.87 - 01:20:25.77]

Wow. You can imagine nothing happening if everybody has the right to do that.

[01:20:26.03 - 01:20:28.73]

Well, they set the threshold at 80% for anything to happen.

[01:20:29.11 - 01:20:32.89]

I see. So there's a strong incentive not to call a vote and waste everybody's time unless

[01:20:32.89 - 01:20:39.79]

you really think you can round up 80% of the votes. Fascinating. Which in practice just gives

[01:20:39.79 - 01:20:45.13]

D all of the control and power of the company because everybody's going to listen to him as

[01:20:45.13 - 01:20:49.75]

the CEO. Point three, we've basically already discussed, and that is that the mission of

[01:20:49.75 - 01:20:55.15]

this organization is to facilitate cooperation and trust among competing institutions to grow

[01:20:55.15 - 01:21:00.51]

the Bank of America hard payment network larger than any one institution could on its own,

[01:21:01.07 - 01:21:07.25]

which is the pitch he gave to Bank of America leadership. Also, though, this is a implicit

[01:21:07.25 - 01:21:15.05]

kind of forbidding of banks in the network from going off and also forming or participating in

[01:21:15.05 - 01:21:20.27]

competing networks. So to borrow like a crypto phrase here, like no side chains allowed.

[01:21:20.69 - 01:21:27.97]

Everything happens on the main network. I see. So none of these banks are members

[01:21:27.97 - 01:21:33.39]

of Interbank at this point. These banks are exclusively members of whatever the heck

[01:21:33.39 - 01:21:37.37]

Visa's predecessor name is. National Bank of America, I think.

[01:21:37.81 - 01:21:41.17]

National Bank of America, I think. Yes. At this point in time,

[01:21:41.37 - 01:21:46.03]

a antitrust lawsuit would change that very shortly. I see. But at this point in time,

[01:21:46.09 - 01:21:51.71]

it's like, nope, you are part of MBI exclusively. You don't go join Interbank MasterCard,

[01:21:51.71 - 01:21:58.57]

and you also don't go start your own networks or peel off parts of the network. Everything that

[01:21:58.57 - 01:22:03.79]

you are doing in payment card operations needs to route into this network.

[01:22:04.13 - 01:22:08.29]

That's a big contract to sign. Totally. Again, this is why D needed to paint

[01:22:08.29 - 01:22:12.49]

the picture both to Bank of America and all the other banks. The prize is worth it.

[01:22:13.07 - 01:22:20.81]

Yep. And then finally, point four, there will be a singular universal set of operating and

[01:22:20.81 - 01:22:27.85]

governing procedures that, much like the U.S. Constitution, is infinitely modifiable by a

[01:22:27.85 - 01:22:33.49]

threshold vote of all members. This is the 80% I talked about. And two, also like the U.S.

[01:22:33.63 - 01:22:42.59]

Constitution to its citizens, all members agree to be bound by its law both now and as it is so

[01:22:42.59 - 01:22:48.15]

then modified in the future. So if you're signing up for this, you are signing up for the regulations

[01:22:48.15 - 01:22:54.21]

and operating procedures as they exist today and for any future changes that come,

[01:22:54.37 - 01:23:00.43]

of which you will have a vote in. This is a democracy, but you can't go leave the democracy.

[01:23:01.21 - 01:23:04.43]

Right. You're signing up for something that might change in the future and you don't get

[01:23:04.43 - 01:23:07.19]

to know today if it's going to change in the future, but at least you have some say in it.

[01:23:07.53 - 01:23:14.05]

That is exactly the pitch. And amazingly, even describing this now, having done all the research,

[01:23:14.05 - 01:23:18.81]

read all the books, written the script that we're talking about here, I still can't believe

[01:23:18.81 - 01:23:24.31]

this actually happens. Dee goes on like a tour across the country. He goes and meets with all

[01:23:24.31 - 01:23:29.45]

the banks. Bank of America helps him out. They bring senior executives to help convene, you know,

[01:23:29.51 - 01:23:37.41]

meetings with all the banks to persuade them. Every single member bank of the previous Bank

[01:23:38.29 - 01:23:45.03]

Franchisee Organization, every single one of them signs up for the new organization led by Dee.

[01:23:45.17 - 01:23:50.91]

Not a single person jumped ship. How many banks were at this point? Over 200. Wow. Isn't that

[01:23:50.91 - 01:23:57.27]

wild? I mean, once you get to like 70 or something, then it kind of seems likely that everyone's going

[01:23:57.27 - 01:24:02.25]

to tip. But in those first 20, the fact that nobody was out is crazy. Totally. And Dee writes

[01:24:02.25 - 01:24:08.31]

about this too. Bank of America helped him out. They identified the 13 most influential banks

[01:24:08.31 - 01:24:13.51]

and they convened the first summits with them of like, hey, what do we got to do to horse trade

[01:24:13.51 - 01:24:18.27]

to get you guys involved? And then you kind of spiral out from there. But yeah, every single

[01:24:18.27 - 01:24:24.59]

one, nobody jumped ship. And when is this? Like 1970-ish? The process starts in 1968. It all wraps

[01:24:24.59 - 01:24:31.07]

up in either 1970 or 1971. Importantly, we've talked about antitrust and DOJ a bunch here.

[01:24:31.07 - 01:24:36.57]

You would think that this would be setting off massive alarm bells in Washington and with the

[01:24:36.57 - 01:24:43.77]

Department of Justice. They get ahead of this. So Dee goes to see them and he gives the same pitch

[01:24:43.77 - 01:24:50.37]

to the government. He says like, look, obviously this is the whole industry, all the competitors

[01:24:50.37 - 01:24:54.61]

in the industry colluding to work together. That's the whole premise of the organization.

[01:24:55.41 - 01:25:01.95]

But what we can create by doing this would not be possible otherwise. And it will be so profoundly

[01:25:01.95 - 01:25:06.65]

useful and important to the American consumer and American businesses that it is worth you

[01:25:06.65 - 01:25:13.65]

letting us do this. So they actually get a letter from the DOJ saying like, Hall Pass, you're good

[01:25:13.65 - 01:25:18.07]

on this one. Wow. Yeah. It's just like the presidential exceptions for the NFL, like an

[01:25:18.07 - 01:25:22.97]

antitrust exemption where, yeah, we're amenable to the fact that you're collaborating, potentially

[01:25:22.97 - 01:25:27.89]

colluding, but it is actually one of the things that we believe will make the country better. So

[01:25:27.89 - 01:25:35.47]

go for it. America wants both its football and its credit cards. Amazing. And that was a key point

[01:25:35.47 - 01:25:39.63]

in then going and convincing all the other banks to sign up for this because that was one of the

[01:25:39.63 - 01:25:45.53]

first questions they asked. Hey, if we do this, aren't we inviting the DOJ on our backs? And Dee

[01:25:45.53 - 01:25:51.39]

is able to say like, nope, got the letter right here. We're good. Wow. Amazing. So very shortly

[01:25:51.39 - 01:25:59.07]

after this, after the creation of NBI, National Bank of AmeriCard, Inc. Dee in 1972, he's thinking

[01:25:59.07 - 01:26:04.83]

globally from the get-go. He goes and creates a parallel, similar organization of international

[01:26:04.83 - 01:26:11.79]

banks using the Bank of AmeriCard system. Visa was global from basically day one. And it wasn't

[01:26:11.79 - 01:26:17.01]

just Barclays in the UK. It was Sumitomo Bank in Japan. It was other banks throughout Europe. It

[01:26:17.01 - 01:26:22.21]

was Canada. It was Latin America. We won't go into all the detail here except one amazing story

[01:26:22.21 - 01:26:27.45]

we're going to tell. This was actually harder to pull off, if you can imagine that, than forming

[01:26:27.45 - 01:26:34.75]

NBI because it really is not clear for some of these international banks that it is better for

[01:26:34.75 - 01:26:40.15]

them to be part of the global network than if they could run the table on their entire country.

[01:26:40.87 - 01:26:46.49]

Say you're, I don't know, I'll pick Sumitomo Bank in Japan. You have to decide, do I want

[01:26:46.49 - 01:26:54.67]

to buy Dee's pitch of it's worth it to me to be a proportional owner of Visa? Or I could be the

[01:26:54.67 - 01:27:00.61]

singular dominant credit card network in my own country, which is more valuable. And for many of

[01:27:00.61 - 01:27:04.21]

them, they'd be right in saying it actually would be better to be singular and dominant. Like you

[01:27:04.21 - 01:27:09.69]

look at China Union Pay. I mean, that is the dominant way of payments flowing in China.

[01:27:10.25 - 01:27:15.03]

That was, for them, the right move. Totally. So once again, in Sausalito,

[01:27:15.61 - 01:27:21.35]

this all comes to a head. Dee knows that probably not all of the international banks

[01:27:21.35 - 01:27:26.55]

are going to agree to this and some of them are going to go their own way. So he calls a final

[01:27:26.55 - 01:27:32.27]

summit in Sausalito. They're going to vote the next morning, final vote on who's going to join

[01:27:32.27 - 01:27:39.39]

the soon to be Visa network and who's going to go it on their own. And Dee gives this nostalgic

[01:27:39.39 - 01:27:44.91]

speech at the end of dinner saying like here in Sausalito, looking out at the bay, this is where

[01:27:44.91 - 01:27:48.93]

me and my colleagues, we dreamed up the original vision for what this could be.

[01:27:49.71 - 01:27:56.91]

And it's sad that this won't be extended to the whole world and a true global payment

[01:27:56.91 - 01:28:04.23]

monetary system. But we're all gathered here. We should celebrate having accomplished so much

[01:28:04.23 - 01:28:09.29]

and had a chance at this dream. Just having the chance is worth it. He's really good with his

[01:28:09.29 - 01:28:16.37]

debate skills. And then he's like, so before we meet one more time tomorrow to obviously disband

[01:28:16.37 - 01:28:23.25]

this whole venture and have the dream just be a memory, we have one more thing for you. One more

[01:28:23.25 - 01:28:29.33]

thing. He's like Steve Jobs, a small gift of appreciation for you giving your valuable time

[01:28:29.33 - 01:28:34.25]

and effort as part of this global undertaking. Please take this little box out from under your

[01:28:34.39 - 01:28:39.19]

seats. Everybody takes a little box out from under their seat. They unwrap it. And inside

[01:28:39.83 - 01:28:46.65]

are a pair of pure gold cufflinks that on each of the two cufflinks, there is one half of the globe.

[01:28:47.33 - 01:28:54.39]

And under one side, it says in Latin, studium ad prosperitum, which translates as the will to

[01:28:54.39 - 01:29:02.43]

succeed. And the other side says voluntas in convienendum. My apologies to Latin speakers

[01:29:02.43 - 01:29:09.67]

out there that I'm butchering that translates as the grace to compromise. And he explains this all

[01:29:09.67 - 01:29:16.99]

and somebody from the crowd yells out, Do you miserable bastard? Because he just pulled on

[01:29:16.99 - 01:29:22.83]

everybody's heartstrings. Oh, and like he gets the votes. And the next morning, all the holdouts

[01:29:22.83 - 01:29:28.61]

reverse course, they all join. And what you can't make this stuff up. It literally happens. The

[01:29:28.61 - 01:29:33.47]

cufflinks are out there. You can Google him. He did this. So he's basically saying, Hey, whether

[01:29:33.47 - 01:29:39.23]

you voted for this or not, you're getting to leave with something saying, I'm so great. I had the will

[01:29:39.23 - 01:29:43.19]

to compromise even if you didn't. And you are the reason that you killed it. D is just such a

[01:29:43.19 - 01:29:48.59]

character. So the other thing along these lines that he does, which is just hilarious. Once this

[01:29:48.59 - 01:29:57.37]

is all set up this the international part of visa becomes first I Banco IBA and CEO. Shortly after

[01:29:57.37 - 01:30:01.43]

this, they rebrand the whole thing into visa, which we'll talk about in a minute for the board.

[01:30:01.57 - 01:30:06.25]

The board is huge because it's like all the representatives from every region from every

[01:30:06.25 - 01:30:11.67]

country. There's like 25 people on the board. D holds board meetings all around the world,

[01:30:11.75 - 01:30:16.57]

you know, different city all the time. It's a global organization, whatnot. He invites the

[01:30:16.57 - 01:30:23.29]

spouses of all the board members to come to each location because it's a family trip, you know,

[01:30:23.85 - 01:30:29.27]

and then he gets the idea. He invites the spouses into the board meeting itself.

[01:30:30.01 - 01:30:34.59]

Oh, what a nightmare. So 25 board members plus their spouses in his board meeting.

[01:30:34.91 - 01:30:38.51]

This means two things. One, nothing is going to get done. There are 50 people in the room.

[01:30:39.21 - 01:30:44.17]

Two, though, he needs all these people to behave well together and, you know, be generous and

[01:30:44.17 - 01:30:48.33]

gallant. What better way to make sure they're on their best behavior than to have their spouse

[01:30:48.33 - 01:30:53.35]

sitting behind them? Wow. So like, are you really going to act like an asshole

[01:30:53.35 - 01:30:57.79]

in front of not only your spouse, but the spouses of all these other global bank heads?

[01:30:58.47 - 01:31:01.19]

That's so funny. I'm gonna start doing that.

[01:31:01.33 - 01:31:03.19]

We should have our wives in the room while we record.

[01:31:03.41 - 01:31:04.25]

Definitely not.

[01:31:05.03 - 01:31:06.55]

Oh, amazing. Amazing.

[01:31:06.77 - 01:31:07.97]

I think neither would join for that.

[01:31:08.21 - 01:31:09.15]

Totally. No, they'd be like, no.

[01:31:10.71 - 01:31:15.19]

Okay, so how does the name visa come about? How does the sort of joining of the international

[01:31:15.19 - 01:31:15.81]

and the domestic?

[01:31:16.25 - 01:31:24.13]

Okay. Visa is so important. It's not just a rebrand. It has to happen once this international

[01:31:24.13 - 01:31:25.39]

organization is set up.

[01:31:25.49 - 01:31:26.75]

Yeah. America can't be in the name.

[01:31:26.99 - 01:31:31.39]

Yeah. Bank of America ain't gonna work. And importantly, as we'll get into in a little bit,

[01:31:31.67 - 01:31:37.29]

this is a huge problem for American Express too. The soon to be visa knows if we're really gonna

[01:31:37.29 - 01:31:42.35]

realize this global vision, we need a truly global brand and mark. Remember back to the

[01:31:42.35 - 01:31:46.47]

blue, white, and gold, three stripes. That's iconic. It works internationally. Obviously,

[01:31:46.63 - 01:31:57.09]

the name does not. So D holds a contest internally within NBI slash IBANCO to generate a new name.

[01:31:57.13 - 01:32:01.93]

And he offers a $50 prize for the winning entry that is chosen. And as legend goes,

[01:32:01.99 - 01:32:07.79]

there are so many submissions of the name visa that when they finally unveil it, D makes a big

[01:32:07.79 - 01:32:13.61]

deal and writes out a $50 check. Check. Why are they using a check? Made out to everyone in the

[01:32:13.61 - 01:32:21.43]

company, which is funny. But then they changed the name to Visa. Visa, it's the most incredible

[01:32:21.43 - 01:32:28.07]

name ever created. I mean, Nike was so great. This is like even better. You cannot have a better

[01:32:28.07 - 01:32:29.13]

name for what this is.

[01:32:29.97 - 01:32:33.45]

It's interesting it's in English. I mean, I guess it makes sense. It's the most spoken language,

[01:32:33.45 - 01:32:40.29]

but no, it's not just in English. The name visa in every, if not almost every language on earth.

[01:32:40.55 - 01:32:43.19]

And when you're traveling and you need a visa for a country, they call it a visa

[01:32:43.19 - 01:32:44.61]

in other languages too.

[01:32:44.83 - 01:32:47.89]

That's what it is. But when you are traveling internationally, when you're going through

[01:32:47.89 - 01:32:51.79]

customs in any country, it is identified as a visa. That is the name.

[01:32:52.15 - 01:32:55.93]

Yeah. The universality, it's sort of a presumptive close because at this point,

[01:32:55.99 - 01:33:00.69]

you know, they've got what, three, four, 500 banks, you know, and they have 16,000 today.

[01:33:00.69 - 01:33:04.59]

It's quite the presumptive close that it will be universally accepted everywhere.

[01:33:04.69 - 01:33:06.59]

The way that a visa would imply.

[01:33:06.95 - 01:33:12.53]

Just every dimension, the presumptive close, the implication that this is a global network,

[01:33:12.53 - 01:33:17.21]

that you can bring your visa with you when you're traveling to other countries and it'll work.

[01:33:17.37 - 01:33:21.29]

The actual definition of the word visa, that is your entry pass.

[01:33:21.43 - 01:33:25.19]

This card is now your entry pass to commerce, to experiences,

[01:33:25.81 - 01:33:29.75]

that it works everywhere. As you said, that it's universal. It's amazing.

[01:33:30.39 - 01:33:34.49]

Yeah. So the visa name, brand, everything,

[01:33:35.25 - 01:33:37.83]

there's two more levels at which it becomes really important.

[01:33:38.57 - 01:33:45.07]

They do something really, really, really smart. So we talked about the need for the universality

[01:33:45.07 - 01:33:50.61]

of a mark and why early interbank, that was a problem until they standardized on MasterCard.

[01:33:51.31 - 01:33:57.55]

They've got the three bands, the blue, white, and gold, and now they have a global name.

[01:33:57.55 - 01:34:01.55]

But all the individual banks, the hundreds soon to be thousands of banks,

[01:34:01.73 - 01:34:08.27]

they all want their own branding on the card too. So visa says, okay, here's the operating

[01:34:08.27 - 01:34:13.19]

regulations. Every card has to have the blue, white, and gold. In the middle white band,

[01:34:13.83 - 01:34:20.55]

visa logo goes there. Nothing but the visa logo. On the top blue band, you can put whatever you

[01:34:20.55 - 01:34:26.49]

want. You can put your own bank logo. You banks get creative. You can do literally whatever you

[01:34:26.49 - 01:34:33.99]

want. Banks start going around. They do affinity card programs with NFL teams, with merchants.

[01:34:34.23 - 01:34:38.81]

This is how you get the Southwest card. This is how you get the San Francisco 49ers card.

[01:34:38.97 - 01:34:42.89]

This is how you get the XYZ everything that they're a bazillion of now.

[01:34:43.37 - 01:34:46.51]

So in the blue stripe on the top of the top third of the card,

[01:34:46.99 - 01:34:51.23]

the banks start co-branding with the name of their bank and some affinity.

[01:34:51.23 - 01:34:57.21]

And this is kind of the brilliance of the visa model. They were like, it's open.

[01:34:57.65 - 01:35:00.51]

You can do whatever you want up there. Right. That seems good for us. We're happy with that.

[01:35:00.73 - 01:35:05.83]

Of course, it's great. The whole goal is just get more consumers and more merchants on the network.

[01:35:06.05 - 01:35:10.83]

So anything that's going to do that great while maintaining the universality of visa.

[01:35:11.19 - 01:35:14.15]

Great. We got the middle, you got the top, go wild, do whatever you want.

[01:35:14.77 - 01:35:18.83]

Wow. And that's how I end up with BB8 on my card today.

[01:35:19.79 - 01:35:27.49]

Amazing. Maybe the most important thing though, for visa really pulling away and becoming,

[01:35:27.75 - 01:35:32.71]

at least for many decades, the dominant global payment card network.

[01:35:32.97 - 01:35:40.05]

The name change ends up becoming this incredible growth hack because what happens is they're the

[01:35:40.05 - 01:35:44.65]

new operating regulations now that mandate that all cards out there, all the previous Bank of

[01:35:44.65 - 01:35:50.77]

Merit cards need to be migrated to visa cards. I think within like two years of this being

[01:35:50.77 - 01:35:58.65]

declared or something like that, some banks start to see this as an opportunity to go poach card

[01:35:58.65 - 01:36:04.07]

holders from other banks. So the competition within the network, obviously this still exists

[01:36:04.73 - 01:36:10.05]

because consumers now they know, and Visa runs a national advertising campaign. Hey,

[01:36:10.05 - 01:36:14.85]

your Bank of Merit card is going to switch to visa. So some banks in a version of the Fresno

[01:36:14.85 - 01:36:22.83]

drop, they start sending unsolicited letters to consumers who are already Visa Bank of Merit card

[01:36:22.83 - 01:36:26.75]

customers with another bank. They're like, Oh, Hey, it's time to switch over to your visa card.

[01:36:26.89 - 01:36:30.73]

Here's the application signed up with this. Nice of them to, at this point in history,

[01:36:30.73 - 01:36:36.39]

offer applications. I think a hundred million cards got dropped in the United States before

[01:36:36.39 - 01:36:41.33]

the government made it illegal to just start randomly issuing credit to people without their

[01:36:41.33 - 01:36:46.61]

awareness or asking for it. Totally wild. But because of this, a whole bunch of consumers start

[01:36:46.61 - 01:36:54.77]

sort of unconsciously switching the bank that issues their visa card. And then once this starts

[01:36:54.77 - 01:36:59.21]

happening, this kicks off a total arms race where all the banks in the network are now like, shoot,

[01:36:59.27 - 01:37:03.83]

we got to blanket the whole country and like preserve our domain and see what we can capture

[01:37:03.83 - 01:37:10.41]

from others in the one year between when the visa name change first comes online and takes effect,

[01:37:10.51 - 01:37:17.45]

which is in 1977. And the next year in 1978, the number of banks participating in the visa system

[01:37:17.45 - 01:37:21.35]

grows by 20% because everybody who's not in the system now is like, I got to get in the visa

[01:37:21.35 - 01:37:28.41]

system. By the way, this is the thing that pushes visa ahead of what was I believe then called

[01:37:28.41 - 01:37:32.73]

master charge. Yes. The inner bank had changed to master charge. They hadn't yet turned it to

[01:37:32.73 - 01:37:39.79]

master card. But in 1976, master charge was actually bigger. They had 7,400 banks. And at

[01:37:39.79 - 01:37:45.51]

this point in history, visa had about 7,000 banks. Master charge also had more cardholders,

[01:37:45.71 - 01:37:51.09]

37 million versus Bank of America cards, 31 million before they changed to visa. So this,

[01:37:51.39 - 01:37:56.13]

despite all the deck chair rearranging between the member banks, it was great for visa to leap

[01:37:56.13 - 01:38:01.77]

ahead of master card. Totally. So that was number of member banks goes by 20%. The number of active

[01:38:01.77 - 01:38:08.97]

cardholders in the visa network in this one year grows by 45%. Wow. Isn't that wild? So as you say,

[01:38:09.07 - 01:38:13.75]

they blow way past master card. Thanks to this, they're already way bigger than Amex because

[01:38:13.75 - 01:38:19.03]

Amex is a different customer segment, which we'll talk about in a sec. And this really puts them

[01:38:19.53 - 01:38:25.95]

on the path to becoming the dominant global network that they are today. Yeah. And it's worth

[01:38:25.95 - 01:38:34.37]

a moment on Amex here because I would have thought just like Facebook or WhatsApp or Google,

[01:38:34.59 - 01:38:40.85]

when you have this sort of winner take all massive network effect business, that the single

[01:38:40.85 - 01:38:47.27]

centralized player network effect would win. Why wouldn't Amex win with their closed loop system

[01:38:47.27 - 01:38:52.99]

where they own the whole thing end to end and can provide the most incredibly custom experience for

[01:38:52.99 - 01:38:58.43]

everyone on their platform, on the merchant side and on the consumer side? And one of the answers

[01:38:58.43 - 01:39:05.83]

of why this open loop system beat the closed loop system is visa adopts this strategy of the network

[01:39:05.83 - 01:39:13.65]

of networks. They go sign up one bank, that bank can go sign up 100 million customers or

[01:39:14.19 - 01:39:20.97]

2 million merchants. They get so much scale leverage on signing up just one bank that

[01:39:20.97 - 01:39:26.15]

this strategy makes it so that they have far more scalability than something like Amex.

[01:39:26.55 - 01:39:32.01]

Amex also is a bank themselves, so is highly regulated. And they're a bank by this point

[01:39:32.01 - 01:39:36.75]

in history, I believe on both sides of the transaction. So they're both a card issuing bank

[01:39:36.75 - 01:39:41.97]

and they are a merchant acquiring bank. And so in terms of scaling internationally,

[01:39:41.99 - 01:39:47.29]

you mentioned their name holds them back. Also, they have to become a bank in another country

[01:39:47.29 - 01:39:51.15]

in order to expand to that country, whereas Visa just needs to go tap a few banks and say,

[01:39:51.49 - 01:39:56.47]

why don't you go figure out how to grow for us there? So this network of networks thing,

[01:39:56.75 - 01:40:01.83]

the open loop system, well, it creates a little bit more of a kludgy user experience because

[01:40:01.83 - 01:40:05.71]

they're sort of the lowest common denominator of data getting passed through the network.

[01:40:05.77 - 01:40:10.71]

It's sort of open source versus something that's wholly owned and operated by a company or

[01:40:10.71 - 01:40:16.51]

a protocol versus fully owned application. Anytime that you have something that's more distributed,

[01:40:16.51 - 01:40:21.47]

you're going to be compromising a little bit on the user experience because you can't sort of rule

[01:40:21.47 - 01:40:27.65]

by fiat when you want to make a change. But it does potentially come with much better scalability,

[01:40:27.99 - 01:40:32.45]

which is the reason why Visa and MasterCard have become the dominant way versus the closed

[01:40:32.45 - 01:40:39.01]

loop systems. It's also worth closing the loop on MasterCard here, too. I mentioned that the DOJ

[01:40:39.01 - 01:40:44.31]

eventually came after both Visa and MasterCard and prevented them from being exclusive systems.

[01:40:44.31 - 01:40:50.11]

That does happen in 1975. And so this concept of duality takes hold for the bank's duality,

[01:40:50.23 - 01:40:56.85]

meaning they can multi-home on both Visa and MasterCard. In all the testimony and case with

[01:40:56.85 - 01:41:02.71]

the DOJ, Dee is obviously 100% against this happening. He doesn't want his banks to be able

[01:41:02.71 - 01:41:08.05]

to join MasterCard, too. But he also makes the surprisingly correct argument. He's like, look,

[01:41:08.05 - 01:41:14.29]

this would be a huge mistake because U.S. government, if you do this, you are going to

[01:41:14.29 - 01:41:21.69]

freeze the payment networks in the U.S. Nobody is ever going to develop a new competing open loop

[01:41:21.69 - 01:41:27.59]

payment network because now there's no more competitive vector between Visa and MasterCard.

[01:41:27.71 - 01:41:32.23]

We'll all have the same features. Banks will be members of both. They're kind of going to

[01:41:32.23 - 01:41:37.61]

operate in lockstep. The prices should be identical for both. All this stuff. And the

[01:41:37.61 - 01:41:42.43]

DOJ is like, no, no, no, we're going to do it anyway. Irony of ironies. Later in 1988,

[01:41:43.21 - 01:41:48.99]

the DOJ again sues Visa and MasterCard for being a duopoly and not competitive enough.

[01:41:49.73 - 01:41:54.25]

So Dee was right. Dee was right. And to this day, Dee has been right. There have been many

[01:41:54.25 - 01:41:58.87]

attempts that we'll talk about toward the end of this episode of displacing Visa and MasterCard or

[01:41:58.87 - 01:42:03.87]

inventing new payment systems. And like they never work or they haven't worked yet. Great point.

[01:42:03.87 - 01:42:10.49]

They're in the process of working. So great. It's probably actually worth sharing the Amex

[01:42:10.49 - 01:42:14.21]

thing. So Amex tried this crazy strategy in the 80s and I'm flashing forward 10 years here,

[01:42:14.23 - 01:42:20.95]

but they would basically cut their interchange, the discount rate that they were charging merchants

[01:42:21.55 - 01:42:29.47]

massively if those merchants would go exclusive to Amex. And this actually continued until 1991

[01:42:30.03 - 01:42:35.97]

for many of their merchants. And for Costco went all the way to 2016 where they had the

[01:42:35.97 - 01:42:39.91]

exclusive agreement with Amex. And if you were going to use a credit card at Costco,

[01:42:40.09 - 01:42:46.05]

it had to be Amex. But interestingly, Visa and MasterCard cried foul when all of their banks

[01:42:46.05 - 01:42:51.25]

were multi-homing and Amex, with their virtue of a slightly different business model, was allowed

[01:42:51.25 - 01:42:56.71]

to go and try to lock up merchants to be exclusive to them. So eventually the whole thing kind of

[01:42:56.71 - 01:43:01.55]

stopped. And you know, flash forward to today, all cards are accepted at basically all locations.

[01:43:02.11 - 01:43:11.11]

Yep. So this basically concludes the full Visa story. Like how did this incredible thing happen?

[01:43:11.53 - 01:43:16.97]

You know, we've answered these questions. Who owns this? Who runs it? How did it start?

[01:43:17.61 - 01:43:23.31]

We could end the episode here, but we've actually really only told you half the story.

[01:43:24.27 - 01:43:31.99]

What we've told you is all the incredible business, organizational, social, human behavior

[01:43:31.99 - 01:43:37.43]

innovations that Visa and D created. Yeah. As Dave puts it in Electronic Value Exchange,

[01:43:37.81 - 01:43:42.61]

there is a socio-technical aspect to this company. And we've talked about the

[01:43:42.61 - 01:43:48.23]

socio, but not the technical. Something that is also true and also I think really

[01:43:48.23 - 01:43:54.11]

underappreciated about Visa is it's also a technology company. And there is a whole

[01:43:54.11 - 01:44:02.27]

technology story in parallel with this too that enabled the Visa we know today. To D's question

[01:44:02.27 - 01:44:07.17]

of where is Visa headquartered and nobody knowing that, it's headquartered in the Bay Area. It's a

[01:44:07.17 - 01:44:15.43]

Silicon Valley company. It was started in the same place and time as Intel, Atari, Apple. The only

[01:44:15.43 - 01:44:20.01]

thing that is different about it versus those other companies is it wasn't funded by venture

[01:44:20.01 - 01:44:25.29]

capital and it thus didn't make anybody rich except the banks who owned it and thus were already

[01:44:25.29 - 01:44:30.45]

rich. But there's an incredible technology story. Yeah. Great point. All right. So what is it?

[01:44:30.87 - 01:44:35.63]

Well, that's a great question, Ben. And before we get into it, this is actually the perfect time

[01:44:35.63 - 01:44:41.05]

to talk about another great technology company and leader. One of our favorite ones, in fact,

[01:44:41.05 - 01:44:47.41]

Statsig, who has also built a tremendously powerful piece of infrastructure focused just

[01:44:47.41 - 01:44:53.01]

like Visa on reliability. As we will talk about later this episode, Visa never goes down or

[01:44:53.01 - 01:44:58.01]

basically never goes down. And that was a super important part of their strategy. But it is

[01:44:58.01 - 01:45:02.83]

extremely hard for most companies to achieve this level of reliability in their technical

[01:45:02.83 - 01:45:07.11]

infrastructure. Yeah. Building reliable infrastructure is a very broad topic, obviously,

[01:45:07.11 - 01:45:13.91]

but one easy way to improve reliability is staged rollouts. So a lot of times what leads to downtime

[01:45:13.91 - 01:45:18.87]

is unexpected interactions from new releases, which crash a component of your app or service.

[01:45:18.99 - 01:45:24.17]

By rolling out a new feature in stages, first to employees, then to an increasingly broad set of

[01:45:24.17 - 01:45:28.63]

users, you can test for bugs in a production environment before you actually launch the

[01:45:28.63 - 01:45:34.19]

feature. Most companies don't do this, however, largely because unlike, say, Facebook, they don't

[01:45:34.19 - 01:45:39.59]

have the right tools. Yep. Thanks to Statsig, though, it is now super easy to do this the right

[01:45:39.59 - 01:45:44.41]

way. If you're building software products, Statsig is the one-stop platform you need for feature

[01:45:44.41 - 01:45:50.93]

flagging, product experimentation, and analytics. The product just works. It makes it super easy to

[01:45:50.93 - 01:45:57.27]

roll out features in stages and provides data on the impact at every stage of the rollout. Statsig

[01:45:57.27 - 01:46:01.89]

is a critical part of how companies, including financial ones like Brex and also like Notion,

[01:46:01.89 - 01:46:07.77]

launch their features to hundreds of millions of users without causing outages or hurting core

[01:46:07.77 - 01:46:13.33]

metrics. Yep. It's super impressive. So if you're a startup, they have a generous free tier and a

[01:46:13.33 - 01:46:17.07]

special program for venture-backed companies. And if you're a large enterprise like those

[01:46:17.07 - 01:46:20.91]

companies Ben just mentioned, they have transparent and non-seat-based pricing.

[01:46:21.51 - 01:46:27.71]

Acquired community members can take advantage of a special offer, including 5 million free events a

[01:46:27.71 - 01:46:37.71]

Just go visit statsig.com. That's statsig.com. To get started on your data-driven journey.

[01:46:38.77 - 01:46:42.79]

Okay. So David, what is Visa's technical infrastructure look like and how did this

[01:46:42.79 - 01:46:50.91]

come to be? So everything we just described up until now, amazing, incredible, unlikely,

[01:46:50.91 - 01:47:01.27]

one in a million, but all it really bought D and Visa was the opportunity. Yes. To actually

[01:47:01.95 - 01:47:11.37]

realize what he sold to Bank of America and the other banks of a instant global payment network

[01:47:11.37 - 01:47:19.03]

that a large percentage of global commerce runs on, you had to build a lot of technology to make

[01:47:19.03 - 01:47:27.99]

that happen. And if you asked the question of D back in 1968, okay, let's assume we do this and

[01:47:27.99 - 01:47:34.07]

we put one of these soon to be Visa cards in the hand of every consumer on the planet. Do they

[01:47:34.07 - 01:47:43.05]

actually want to use them instead of cash and checks? And the answer to that was probably not.

[01:47:43.05 - 01:47:49.33]

Fascinating. Now they wanted to use them in specific use cases. Like Ben, you pointed out

[01:47:49.33 - 01:47:54.69]

when you want to make a credit purchase, when you want to essentially do what installment financing

[01:47:54.69 - 01:48:00.19]

was before, when you have any number of X, Y, Z other set of factors in the case of diners club

[01:48:00.19 - 01:48:05.43]

at Amex, when you want to impress your colleagues and your business partners, there were use cases,

[01:48:06.01 - 01:48:12.13]

but it wasn't like it is today where obviously you're going to use your credit card, which is

[01:48:12.13 - 01:48:16.77]

probably a Visa and maybe a MasterCard to pay for everything that you do everywhere instantly.

[01:48:17.49 - 01:48:20.71]

Yes. And to illustrate, we will link this in the show notes,

[01:48:20.83 - 01:48:27.11]

but there is an old TV segment from 1993, not that old, pretty recent.

[01:48:27.35 - 01:48:34.35]

Ben, I have really sad news. 1993 was 30 years ago. We remember it, but it's old now.

[01:48:34.73 - 01:48:38.99]

1993 to today is like the 1950s were to us when we were kids.

[01:48:39.65 - 01:48:41.13]

Not good. Not good, David.

[01:48:41.13 - 01:48:44.63]

Not good. This 1993 TV segment,

[01:48:44.79 - 01:48:51.41]

the news is that Burger King has just rolled out credit cards. That should tell you a lot.

[01:48:51.91 - 01:48:57.81]

Burger King prior to 1993 did not accept credit cards, or at least this commercial makes it seem

[01:48:57.81 - 01:49:02.81]

that way. And they interviewed this woman and she says, I think it's pretty sad when you have

[01:49:02.81 - 01:49:07.99]

to use a credit card when you go to a fast food restaurant. That was a view of someone

[01:49:07.99 - 01:49:14.33]

just sitting in a Burger King in 1993. And a second guy is interviewed and says something to

[01:49:14.33 - 01:49:19.17]

the effect of, I just hope it doesn't slow things down because, you know, they'll have to call New

[01:49:19.17 - 01:49:23.39]

York and then they'll have to do the thing. And I just hope it doesn't slow things down.

[01:49:23.99 - 01:49:29.31]

And it's like the prevailing idea is that cash is fast. Cash is easy. Cash is respectable.

[01:49:29.77 - 01:49:34.07]

Credit cards are debt. What this woman is saying is really sad if you need to use debt to buy a

[01:49:34.07 - 01:49:39.21]

burger. Yes. But even at this point in history, it was viewed as this cumbersome thing rather

[01:49:39.21 - 01:49:43.75]

than a convenient thing to bust out the card rather than, you know, like, I actually think

[01:49:43.75 - 01:49:47.09]

Burger King corporate crunched the numbers and they were like, geez, for the amount of time we

[01:49:47.09 - 01:49:51.47]

spend handling change, we just want to encourage everyone to be swiping the card all the time,

[01:49:51.49 - 01:49:54.07]

even if they're, you know, losing some money on the interchange.

[01:49:54.25 - 01:50:00.85]

It's crazy. That was 1993. I mean, yeah, compare that to today. And I mean, I don't know about you,

[01:50:00.85 - 01:50:05.89]

but I get pissed when somebody ahead of me in line starts breaking out cash and coins. I'm like,

[01:50:05.95 - 01:50:11.37]

oh, my God. Oh, what are you doing? So start us back. I think the last time we checked in on how

[01:50:11.37 - 01:50:16.57]

the settlement worked was around literally collecting paper sales drafts and then starting

[01:50:16.57 - 01:50:24.49]

to mail it around. Yes. So to get from there to today, three major pieces of technology

[01:50:24.49 - 01:50:32.25]

needed to be built by Visa. One was transaction authorizations. So when we were talking about

[01:50:32.25 - 01:50:38.47]

transactions happening earlier and the person in Burger King was referencing like, oh,

[01:50:38.47 - 01:50:41.73]

they got a call to New York and they got to authorize the transaction and all that.

[01:50:42.19 - 01:50:49.59]

We glossed over one sort of stopgap slash bandaid that Visa and other credit card networks

[01:50:49.59 - 01:50:55.59]

implemented around authorization. They didn't actually authorize every transaction. So when

[01:50:55.59 - 01:51:01.25]

you paid for something with a credit card in a store, all merchants had what was called a floor

[01:51:01.25 - 01:51:07.73]

limit. And the floor limit was any transaction over that limit could not be authorized directly

[01:51:07.73 - 01:51:13.11]

on the floor and say it was, I don't know, 50 bucks or something like that. Anything paid with

[01:51:13.11 - 01:51:20.27]

credit card under $50, it was basically within the judgment of the cashier to say yes or no.

[01:51:20.83 - 01:51:25.83]

And so everybody just said yes. I mean, the reality was this was the threshold below which

[01:51:25.83 - 01:51:31.37]

the banks and Visa were willing to say, okay, we'll accept a certain amount of fraud. Interesting.

[01:51:31.67 - 01:51:36.85]

And then above that limit, the cashier had to go call up the merchant bank, say, hey,

[01:51:36.85 - 01:51:44.55]

we got a card here. It's this number. Somebody's buying a refrigerator. Then that merchant bank

[01:51:44.55 - 01:51:49.51]

would have to look up that card number, figure out based on the card number, what bank issued

[01:51:49.51 - 01:51:56.57]

the card to the cardholder, call up the cardholder bank. Oh my God. Get somebody on the horn there.

[01:51:56.71 - 01:52:02.75]

Say, hey, I've got your cardholder, Benjamin Gilbert. His card number is XYZ, you know,

[01:52:02.75 - 01:52:08.51]

one, two, three. Can you look up his credit and, you know, he wants to buy a $500 refrigerator.

[01:52:08.65 - 01:52:12.93]

Can you tell me if he's good for it? Right. And this effectively would be like, have they

[01:52:12.93 - 01:52:16.55]

hit their limit yet? Yes. Have they hit their limit? The issuing bank would go look that up.

[01:52:16.61 - 01:52:20.73]

The person there, literally the person, talk on the phone to the person at the merchant bank,

[01:52:20.87 - 01:52:24.41]

give them the answer. The merchant bank then switches the line back to the cashier

[01:52:24.41 - 01:52:29.29]

at the store and says like, yeah, Ben is good for it or no, Ben is not good for it.

[01:52:29.29 - 01:52:36.07]

So you had banks talking to banks, people at merchants, talking to people at their bank,

[01:52:36.31 - 01:52:39.87]

talking to people at the cardholders bank, and then reversing the whole chain.

[01:52:40.45 - 01:52:47.33]

But importantly, you had a person at the merchant's bank calling a person at the cardholders bank.

[01:52:47.65 - 01:52:53.03]

Yes. Today, that is known as VisaNet. There's this piece of technology that sits in the middle

[01:52:53.03 - 01:52:58.07]

that eliminates that bank to bank phone call. And so this is a big part of one of the first things

[01:52:58.07 - 01:53:02.99]

that Visa builds. And that process that we just described, that could take like 20 minutes.

[01:53:03.65 - 01:53:08.99]

And it just didn't work outside of business hours for those banks. So say, you know,

[01:53:09.09 - 01:53:15.59]

now that Bank of AmeriCard is nationwide, soon to be international. Imagine you're trying to

[01:53:15.59 - 01:53:21.51]

buy something in Japan and the Japanese merchant bank calls your cardholder bank back in America,

[01:53:21.99 - 01:53:27.67]

closed for business, just no way for that transaction to happen. Wow. That's crazy.

[01:53:27.67 - 01:53:34.69]

Not good. Definitely not good. So D and Visa know that this is like the first thing that they have

[01:53:34.69 - 01:53:41.71]

to address. In 1971, right after NBI is formed, D starts a project called the Bank of AmeriCard

[01:53:41.71 - 01:53:49.67]

Authorization System Experimental, or BASE, to build technology to address this problem.

[01:53:49.97 - 01:53:56.05]

The whole thing actually started rather inauspiciously, because right after all the

[01:53:56.05 - 01:54:02.57]

approvals came through for D to form NBI, I think it was literally the evening before the first board

[01:54:02.57 - 01:54:08.09]

meeting, Bank of America comes up to D and they're like, can we take you aside? There's something you

[01:54:08.09 - 01:54:12.69]

need to know. Oh God, that's always fun before our first board meeting. And they're like, well,

[01:54:13.23 - 01:54:18.99]

it's kind of hard to tell you. We've been in secret negotiations with American Express for months to

[01:54:18.99 - 01:54:25.33]

create a joint venture together, Bank of America and American Express, that will create an automated

[01:54:25.33 - 01:54:31.79]

system for transaction authorization for multiple credit card systems across the whole country.

[01:54:33.01 - 01:54:39.27]

And we're going to do this. So, you know, D, if you want us to remain part of NBI, remember this

[01:54:39.27 - 01:54:44.51]

is Bank of America, the most important part of NBI. Oh my God. I know, you know, that part of

[01:54:44.51 - 01:54:49.71]

the operating agreement is like, you know, we can't really operate outside of the bounds of NBI, but

[01:54:49.71 - 01:54:53.41]

this isn't really outside the bounds of the NBI. This is a separate thing. This is authorization

[01:54:53.41 - 01:54:59.43]

systems. We're going to do this. And if you say we can't do this, we're out. Whoa. So not good.

[01:54:59.73 - 01:55:05.43]

And it's true. It's not really like they're issuing new cards or acquiring new merchants.

[01:55:05.85 - 01:55:11.15]

They're being a technology provider. Because they and American Express both see that, hey,

[01:55:11.17 - 01:55:15.93]

this is a really, really, really valuable piece of technology. D is of course pissed,

[01:55:16.03 - 01:55:22.37]

but what's he going to do? B of A says, take it or leave it. D takes it. As D then tells the story,

[01:55:22.93 - 01:55:27.71]

Bank of America and Amex go out and they try and pitch the other banks in NBI and

[01:55:27.71 - 01:55:32.91]

Interbank and MasterCard on joining the system. But there's all these problems with it,

[01:55:32.95 - 01:55:37.63]

and they don't know how to build technology. And the whole thing dies on the vine. Maybe,

[01:55:37.89 - 01:55:44.15]

maybe that might be part of the story. The other thing that happens is Interbank and MasterCard

[01:55:44.15 - 01:55:50.49]

actually get involved in the project. The whole thing then morphs into a tripartite consortium of

[01:55:51.43 - 01:55:57.85]

Interbank, American Express and Bank of America and thus by association NBI. Our old friends,

[01:55:57.97 - 01:56:01.79]

the Department of Justice start sniffing around and they're like, all right, now this is actually

[01:56:02.63 - 01:56:08.61]

collusion and anti-competitive behavior. So if you go forward with this, we're going to sue you.

[01:56:08.99 - 01:56:13.45]

And then they all abandoned the project. And this is huge for Visa because this means they can

[01:56:13.45 - 01:56:18.49]

build it on their own. Fascinating. So they do the natural thing at the time. I mean,

[01:56:18.49 - 01:56:21.95]

these are bankers, even though they're based in San Francisco and Silicon Valley, these aren't

[01:56:21.95 - 01:56:29.59]

tech folks. They put out an RFP to folks like IBM, systems integrators, you know, the Accentures of

[01:56:29.59 - 01:56:36.85]

the day to go build this technology for them. Go build a computerized authorization system for the

[01:56:36.85 - 01:56:43.59]

Bank of America Visa network. All the bids come back. And of course they are all way over budget

[01:56:43.59 - 01:56:49.27]

and way over time. So Dee says, well, screw it. We're going to do it ourselves. How hard can it be?

[01:56:49.83 - 01:56:58.53]

Wow. So in his very Dee way, he goes and he recruits the guy from the firm that impressed

[01:56:58.53 - 01:57:04.09]

them the most throughout the bidding process was a firm named TRW and a guy named Aram Tatoulian.

[01:57:04.63 - 01:57:10.51]

Dee goes back to him and he's like, I like you. You come work for me. Leave TRW. I'm going to

[01:57:10.51 - 01:57:15.31]

hire you. You build this here in-house. Wow. And I'll give you the resources. You come join us and

[01:57:15.31 - 01:57:21.69]

you'll build out your own tech team here within NBI slash Visa. Aram comes and joins and starts

[01:57:21.69 - 01:57:28.37]

the core of the Visa tech team. Dee gives him nine months to build this entire thing from scratch.

[01:57:28.57 - 01:57:34.61]

And to do this involves building a first nationwide and then ultimately worldwide telecom network

[01:57:34.61 - 01:57:41.79]

so that the electronic communication can happen. Two, installing computer systems in each of the

[01:57:41.79 - 01:57:46.35]

member banks around the country so that instead of the banks calling the other banks, you know,

[01:57:46.39 - 01:57:52.77]

this can happen over computers. Three, training the people at the banks on how to use these new

[01:57:52.77 - 01:57:58.81]

computer systems. And then four, maybe most importantly for the long run, building a new

[01:57:58.81 - 01:58:04.79]

centralized data center for Visa in the Bay Area. And this becomes the San Mateo campus.

[01:58:04.99 - 01:58:10.75]

You can see it right off of 101 as you're driving between San Francisco and Silicon Valley. It is,

[01:58:10.97 - 01:58:15.39]

I believe, still the headquarters of Visa today now. Huge campus in San Mateo where they build

[01:58:15.39 - 01:58:19.39]

the data center. Until I think next year, it's going to go back up to San Francisco when they

[01:58:19.39 - 01:58:25.71]

finish a new building. That's right. I think it's going to Mission Bay. So miraculously,

[01:58:26.27 - 01:58:33.81]

Aram and his new Tiger Visa tech team, they do it. They do it in nine months and it works.

[01:58:34.29 - 01:58:38.31]

So Dave Stearns writes in his book about this whole situation and about D.

[01:58:38.63 - 01:58:44.59]

D maintained that if you give computer people more time, they will just consume it. So he always

[01:58:44.59 - 01:58:52.81]

insisted. So it's so true. So he always insisted on shorter projects with uncompromising deadlines.

[01:58:53.95 - 01:58:59.49]

They will just consume it. They'll just consume it. Fascinating. Okay. So they build

[01:58:59.49 - 01:59:04.43]

what becomes VisaNet in-house. At this point, there's no internet, so it's all just working

[01:59:04.43 - 01:59:08.29]

over telephone communication. Yep. Direct networking.

[01:59:08.73 - 01:59:14.11]

Amazing. And so they're just operating the whole network out of this data center in California.

[01:59:14.65 - 01:59:20.87]

Yep. Now, importantly, this is only for transaction authorizations. So the cards

[01:59:20.87 - 01:59:25.83]

and the point of sale have not been digitized yet. That's going to be the final third piece

[01:59:25.83 - 01:59:31.69]

of the stool of technology that Visa builds. This is just when a merchant makes a call to

[01:59:31.69 - 01:59:39.49]

their bank saying, hey, is this card good for this amount? This is then the interbank communication.

[01:59:40.25 - 01:59:42.91]

I see. So how does the settlement happen at this point in history?

[01:59:43.07 - 01:59:47.75]

So that's what's next. That's the next big operational technical problem that Visa

[01:59:47.75 - 01:59:51.99]

needs to solve. It's like literally moving the money when it needs to be moved.

[01:59:52.29 - 01:59:57.19]

Reconciling the transactions, moving the money, getting everything wrapped up at the end of the

[01:59:57.19 - 02:00:03.25]

day, week, month, sending out statements, all this stuff. You can sort of think of the first piece

[02:00:03.25 - 02:00:07.45]

that we just described as the authorization as sort of the front end of a payment card system.

[02:00:08.15 - 02:00:14.13]

The settlement is the back end. The front end piece consumed a lot of phone time and people.

[02:00:14.69 - 02:00:21.93]

The back end piece consumed a lot of paper and time too. Maybe more time, but like a lot of paper.

[02:00:22.41 - 02:00:23.63]

Because you're effectively mailing checks.

[02:00:23.85 - 02:00:32.77]

And even more perniciously, as the network grew, and at this point in time, soon-to-be Visa is

[02:00:32.77 - 02:00:41.51]

growing explosively, the complexity of this settlement piece also grows sort of exponentially.

[02:00:41.51 - 02:00:47.59]

Every new bank node that you add into the system now has to interact with all the other bank nodes,

[02:00:47.75 - 02:00:50.31]

and so like this is a hard computer science problem.

[02:00:50.53 - 02:00:51.49]

It's an N-squared problem.

[02:00:51.61 - 02:00:54.53]

Well, it's a problem that is easily solved by computers,

[02:00:54.79 - 02:00:59.13]

but when you're doing all this manually with paper, this is a big, big problem.

[02:00:59.49 - 02:01:02.23]

N-squared is much worse when you're doing it with paper than with computers.

[02:01:02.53 - 02:01:05.65]

Yes. So what you really need to do this efficiently,

[02:01:05.75 - 02:01:11.03]

to bring it all the way back to the beginning of the episode, is a clearinghouse.

[02:01:11.51 - 02:01:14.67]

You need an automated clearinghouse.

[02:01:15.25 - 02:01:16.57]

And this is unbelievable.

[02:01:16.67 - 02:01:19.57]

A few people had referenced this to us as we were doing the research,

[02:01:19.71 - 02:01:22.81]

but I kind of forgot about it till the end when I got to this point.

[02:01:23.11 - 02:01:25.57]

And I was like, holy crap.

[02:01:27.19 - 02:01:32.59]

Visa builds an automated clearinghouse for themselves to do settlement electronically

[02:01:32.59 - 02:01:33.31]

over the network.

[02:01:33.35 - 02:01:39.25]

They end up calling this project Base 2 after Base 1, which was the first thing doing authorizations.

[02:01:39.25 - 02:01:46.19]

This happens at the exact same time and place as when the Federal Reserve

[02:01:46.19 - 02:01:50.21]

is building their own ACH system for checks,

[02:01:50.47 - 02:01:53.13]

automated clearinghouse, ACH, everything in the banking system.

[02:01:53.19 - 02:01:59.15]

That was built by the San Francisco branch of the Federal Reserve in the exact same years,

[02:01:59.21 - 02:02:04.29]

in the 70s, when Visa was building their own essentially automated clearinghouse system.

[02:02:05.29 - 02:02:06.07]

That is wild.

[02:02:06.29 - 02:02:07.93]

Now, I've never read anything.

[02:02:08.03 - 02:02:08.79]

I couldn't find anything.

[02:02:08.79 - 02:02:11.61]

I've never heard anybody say that they talked to each other,

[02:02:11.85 - 02:02:15.17]

that they knew anything about what was going on, that they were sharing practices.

[02:02:15.95 - 02:02:17.73]

I assume they probably didn't.

[02:02:18.13 - 02:02:18.77]

But it's wild.

[02:02:18.91 - 02:02:20.41]

The same place, the same time.

[02:02:20.75 - 02:02:21.59]

Solving the same problem.

[02:02:21.67 - 02:02:22.67]

Solving the same problem.

[02:02:22.95 - 02:02:29.37]

Which, again, the problem is this gigantic list of a whole bunch of transactions just happened.

[02:02:29.77 - 02:02:31.49]

People just agreed to make them happen.

[02:02:31.89 - 02:02:34.01]

And now we need to settle up at the end of the day.

[02:02:34.01 - 02:02:40.51]

And if you paid me $100, 500 times, and I paid you $100, 400 times,

[02:02:40.55 - 02:02:42.69]

what is the net that actually needs to get transferred?

[02:02:43.23 - 02:02:45.67]

And that is a far more efficient way.

[02:02:45.85 - 02:02:48.95]

Batching them up is a far more efficient way than transferring the money back and forth

[02:02:48.95 - 02:02:51.87]

every single time, but still can be a complicated problem,

[02:02:51.91 - 02:02:56.57]

especially when you have thousands of banks on each side of that equation.

[02:02:57.03 - 02:03:01.11]

It really is like the exact same problem that both of these teams are solving.

[02:03:01.11 - 02:03:03.79]

And with the same users, the same banks.

[02:03:04.31 - 02:03:05.11]

It's totally wild.

[02:03:06.05 - 02:03:09.87]

Once base two is done, and again, it also happens in less than a year,

[02:03:10.07 - 02:03:11.49]

that it's live and up and running,

[02:03:12.03 - 02:03:16.27]

average settlement time for transactions on the Visa network

[02:03:16.27 - 02:03:22.25]

go from taking a week on average to happening in batch overnight every single night.

[02:03:22.31 - 02:03:25.51]

Every transaction on the network settled every single night.

[02:03:25.63 - 02:03:27.75]

So the speed is super important.

[02:03:27.75 - 02:03:31.45]

This has lots of implications for float amongst the banks,

[02:03:31.59 - 02:03:33.79]

you know, like some good, some bad between the banks,

[02:03:33.87 - 02:03:35.19]

between the merchants, the issuing banks.

[02:03:35.37 - 02:03:37.95]

If you're the one that owes the money, you kind of want the payment to take more time.

[02:03:38.03 - 02:03:38.73]

Yes, exactly.

[02:03:38.87 - 02:03:39.25]

Exactly.

[02:03:39.71 - 02:03:42.41]

Also importantly, this is from Dave's book.

[02:03:42.53 - 02:03:48.53]

It ends up saving about $15 million in labor and postage costs

[02:03:48.53 - 02:03:52.35]

to the banks by automating this just in year one.

[02:03:52.65 - 02:03:52.89]

Wow.

[02:03:52.99 - 02:03:55.57]

And imagine if this were done manually today.

[02:03:55.61 - 02:03:57.73]

It wouldn't be possible to do this manually today.

[02:03:57.73 - 02:04:01.29]

No, you needed the technology solutions that they've put in place

[02:04:01.29 - 02:04:04.27]

to enable the commerce scale that flows on this network today.

[02:04:04.53 - 02:04:04.69]

Yep.

[02:04:05.31 - 02:04:10.81]

It is also during this project that one of the most famous

[02:04:10.81 - 02:04:14.83]

Visa tech team stories in history happens.

[02:04:15.31 - 02:04:16.29]

This is a good one.

[02:04:16.39 - 02:04:17.59]

This is in Dave's book.

[02:04:17.97 - 02:04:22.17]

So one of the guys, I think he was working on base one

[02:04:22.17 - 02:04:24.15]

and then maybe got transferred into base two.

[02:04:25.19 - 02:04:29.75]

He is thinking about the system and reliability is so important.

[02:04:29.85 - 02:04:31.01]

You know, this network can't go down.

[02:04:31.41 - 02:04:40.15]

He's like, huh, we actually have a pretty serious vulnerability in this system.

[02:04:40.15 - 02:04:41.23]

So he goes to see Dee.

[02:04:41.43 - 02:04:45.35]

The whole Visa organization, I think, is like less than 50 people at this point in time.

[02:04:46.13 - 02:04:46.21]

Wow.

[02:04:46.53 - 02:04:47.15]

Just wild.

[02:04:47.51 - 02:04:50.41]

He's like, Dee, you know, all this technology we're building, you know,

[02:04:50.43 - 02:04:52.23]

we've got authorizations running.

[02:04:52.23 - 02:04:54.21]

We're in the middle of getting settlement running.

[02:04:54.43 - 02:04:57.19]

Like the whole Visa network now depends on this technology.

[02:04:57.51 - 02:05:02.49]

We're providing the service off of one computer in one data center,

[02:05:02.61 - 02:05:07.29]

which is made out of wood and sits on a hillside that has dry grass

[02:05:07.29 - 02:05:11.37]

right by a freeway below a parking lot that is perched on a cliff.

[02:05:11.59 - 02:05:14.73]

And we're also about a mile from the San Andreas fault.

[02:05:16.75 - 02:05:19.75]

So, you know, we really might want to think about having

[02:05:19.75 - 02:05:23.99]

some sort of redundant parallel site, a data center out there.

[02:05:24.89 - 02:05:27.37]

And Dee, in his very Dee way, he thinks about it.

[02:05:27.41 - 02:05:28.99]

He's like, all right, let me think about this over the weekend.

[02:05:29.25 - 02:05:32.47]

He comes back on Monday and he's like, all right, you're right.

[02:05:32.97 - 02:05:33.63]

Thought about it.

[02:05:33.97 - 02:05:35.15]

You now have a new job.

[02:05:35.59 - 02:05:36.95]

Your job is to solve this problem.

[02:05:37.51 - 02:05:38.29]

You're marching orders.

[02:05:38.75 - 02:05:41.29]

You are to go move somewhere on the East Coast.

[02:05:41.45 - 02:05:42.05]

I don't care where.

[02:05:42.67 - 02:05:45.47]

Find a site where you can build a redundant data center,

[02:05:46.07 - 02:05:48.87]

get it all built and have it done within six months.

[02:05:48.87 - 02:05:53.45]

And invent the technology to keep these things synchronized.

[02:05:53.53 - 02:05:54.71]

So they are actually redundant.

[02:05:55.11 - 02:05:55.31]

Yes.

[02:05:55.49 - 02:06:00.31]

So now Dee is not technical enough to talk about that, but this is super important.

[02:06:00.49 - 02:06:06.09]

Up until this point in time, state of the art in the sort of fledgling data center world

[02:06:06.09 - 02:06:11.71]

was, yes, to have redundant other location backups.

[02:06:12.13 - 02:06:17.09]

But the way that it was typically done was you had your primary data center

[02:06:17.09 - 02:06:19.61]

that operated at full capacity all the time.

[02:06:20.21 - 02:06:22.53]

The backups were just like cold storage.

[02:06:22.71 - 02:06:26.15]

They were like dormant backups that only were there to come online

[02:06:26.15 - 02:06:29.71]

if you had to fail over from the primary system.

[02:06:30.69 - 02:06:32.63]

Visa though, and the Visa tech team, they're like, you know,

[02:06:33.01 - 02:06:37.01]

if we're going to go through all this trouble and expense of building another data center.

[02:06:37.67 - 02:06:38.21]

Let's use it.

[02:06:38.33 - 02:06:39.15]

Let's use it.

[02:06:39.15 - 02:06:45.47]

So they re-architected base one and completed architecting base two

[02:06:45.47 - 02:06:49.95]

to run concurrently across multiple data centers as like

[02:06:49.95 - 02:06:54.03]

shared operations running across multiple data centers,

[02:06:54.17 - 02:07:01.43]

which I think may have been either the first or one of the first examples of that ever happening.

[02:07:02.23 - 02:07:03.47]

Totally wild, right?

[02:07:03.59 - 02:07:07.45]

I don't know that it was the first, but it was definitely not state of the art before.

[02:07:07.45 - 02:07:11.31]

This whole data center world was still pretty new

[02:07:11.31 - 02:07:16.19]

and Visa definitely like through ingenuity invented a way to do this.

[02:07:16.91 - 02:07:17.39]

It's fascinating.

[02:07:17.93 - 02:07:21.21]

And of course, this is now how every data center in the world runs today.

[02:07:21.55 - 02:07:22.23]

Pretty amazing.

[02:07:22.89 - 02:07:28.81]

So that was data center innovation, which sort of happens in concert with settlement digitization.

[02:07:29.19 - 02:07:37.35]

The third big leg of the technology stool that Visa builds is finally digitizing

[02:07:38.01 - 02:07:40.13]

the point of the transaction itself.

[02:07:40.59 - 02:07:44.91]

And that requires both figuring out some way to make the cards

[02:07:44.91 - 02:07:49.15]

digital or capable of being read in a digital manner

[02:07:49.85 - 02:07:54.35]

and digitizing the point of sale terminal in the merchants.

[02:07:54.93 - 02:07:57.79]

Those Verifone, you know, traditionally they had a huge market share.

[02:07:58.11 - 02:08:00.37]

Well, this is when Verifone gets built.

[02:08:00.79 - 02:08:02.75]

There was no Verifone before this.

[02:08:03.29 - 02:08:03.51]

Yep.

[02:08:03.71 - 02:08:05.07]

This is huge.

[02:08:05.17 - 02:08:06.23]

This is the holy grail.

[02:08:06.87 - 02:08:12.29]

The base one authorization system, that was still only for transactions above

[02:08:12.29 - 02:08:14.33]

the floor limits at the merchants.

[02:08:14.53 - 02:08:16.59]

So, you know, above 50 bucks or a hundred bucks or whatever,

[02:08:16.75 - 02:08:22.33]

it replaced the need for phone calls, but it didn't digitize the transactions themselves.

[02:08:23.31 - 02:08:28.69]

So this is actually every transaction now is running digitally for authorization over the network.

[02:08:28.99 - 02:08:29.41]

Exactly.

[02:08:29.57 - 02:08:33.11]

Not only authorization, but just think about all the things that happen

[02:08:33.11 - 02:08:36.29]

digitally around transactions, the data, you know, everything.

[02:08:36.81 - 02:08:39.33]

This is the beginning of it all.

[02:08:39.93 - 02:08:45.93]

So the first step to doing this, as we mentioned, is digitizing the cards.

[02:08:46.29 - 02:08:48.59]

And that really meant making them machine readable.

[02:08:48.93 - 02:08:52.73]

So before this, the cards were just pieces of plastic with embossed

[02:08:52.73 - 02:08:53.63]

numbers on them.

[02:08:53.63 - 02:08:55.93]

Like you had to say or type the numbers into something.

[02:08:56.45 - 02:09:00.21]

And the nice thing about the embossing is that if you run a shunk shunk on it.

[02:09:00.39 - 02:09:00.87]

A zip zap.

[02:09:00.87 - 02:09:08.19]

With the zip zap or the card imprint reader, you actually can get the numbers off of it

[02:09:08.19 - 02:09:09.25]

without writing it down yourself.

[02:09:09.37 - 02:09:14.25]

That was a huge productivity gain when they launched the sort of imprint reader machines.

[02:09:14.71 - 02:09:14.73]

Yep.

[02:09:15.11 - 02:09:19.57]

So Visa makes the decision, they end up going with the mag stripe technology.

[02:09:19.83 - 02:09:22.61]

This is the magnetic strip on the back of still to this day,

[02:09:22.75 - 02:09:24.09]

almost everybody's cards out there.

[02:09:24.51 - 02:09:26.17]

There's a whole bunch of drama around this.

[02:09:26.85 - 02:09:30.87]

Citibank had financed a proprietary magnetic solution

[02:09:30.87 - 02:09:33.13]

that they were trying to push on the industry.

[02:09:33.41 - 02:09:34.65]

I think they're a bunch of lawsuits.

[02:09:35.39 - 02:09:37.55]

And didn't they try to like hack the magnetic stripe?

[02:09:37.69 - 02:09:42.15]

And then they did just to prove that like the proprietary thing would have been more secure.

[02:09:42.51 - 02:09:43.81]

Yes, but it was proprietary.

[02:09:44.17 - 02:09:48.57]

So Visa's like, hey, we're not going to pay you Citibank a skiff on everything that we do here.

[02:09:49.03 - 02:09:49.73]

We take the skiff.

[02:09:49.73 - 02:09:50.33]

You pay us a skiff on everything.

[02:09:50.33 - 02:09:50.85]

You pay us a skiff.

[02:09:51.41 - 02:09:51.81]

Exactly.

[02:09:53.49 - 02:09:56.15]

So they standardize on the mag stripe for the cards.

[02:09:56.65 - 02:10:01.59]

The next step then is they have to create a digital point of sale terminal.

[02:10:01.77 - 02:10:06.07]

Now, this is pretty far outside the scope of what Visa itself could do,

[02:10:06.19 - 02:10:10.55]

like mass produce a small, inexpensive piece of hardware

[02:10:10.55 - 02:10:14.95]

that needs to get distributed to millions of merchants around the globe.

[02:10:15.65 - 02:10:17.55]

That is outside their circle of competence.

[02:10:17.55 - 02:10:22.49]

Yes, we mentioned earlier and you alluded to this is when Verifone takes off.

[02:10:22.95 - 02:10:25.01]

So what Visa does is they create a spec.

[02:10:25.51 - 02:10:29.41]

They're like, this is the spec of what we kind of need to be created.

[02:10:29.67 - 02:10:32.91]

And they invite different technology vendors to bid on it.

[02:10:33.45 - 02:10:37.05]

Verifone ends up becoming the large dominant.

[02:10:37.25 - 02:10:39.07]

I actually don't know what their market share was or is.

[02:10:39.39 - 02:10:41.17]

I think they had like two thirds of the market at peak.

[02:10:41.57 - 02:10:41.77]

Yeah.

[02:10:42.03 - 02:10:44.11]

And it's pretty crazy.

[02:10:44.11 - 02:10:52.01]

They come up with this sub $500 device that can sit pretty easily on a merchant countertop

[02:10:52.01 - 02:10:54.93]

that already has a bunch of other stuff on it and not a lot of space

[02:10:54.93 - 02:10:58.41]

and get it distributed and installed at all these merchants.

[02:10:58.87 - 02:11:02.71]

Now, the merchants didn't exactly want this thing necessarily,

[02:11:02.93 - 02:11:06.89]

but the way Visa incentivized them to get it is they gave

[02:11:06.89 - 02:11:10.41]

merchants who used it a discount on transaction fees,

[02:11:10.41 - 02:11:15.71]

I think for a period of time for transactions that happen digitally over the digital network.

[02:11:16.25 - 02:11:16.55]

I see.

[02:11:16.77 - 02:11:19.47]

If you use this instead of the Zip Zap, you'll get cheaper fees.

[02:11:19.73 - 02:11:20.55]

Yeah, exactly.

[02:11:21.19 - 02:11:23.83]

Which that business model carries through to today.

[02:11:23.99 - 02:11:28.33]

I mean, the way that you charge a card massively affects the interchange that gets charged,

[02:11:28.73 - 02:11:32.99]

whether it's keyed in with numbers or whether it's swiped or whether it's an e-commerce transaction.

[02:11:33.63 - 02:11:33.89]

Totally.

[02:11:34.31 - 02:11:39.61]

One really fun piece of implementation detail around this,

[02:11:39.61 - 02:11:41.85]

just like with base one and authorization,

[02:11:42.29 - 02:11:46.01]

where Visa had to build out a telecommunications network amongst all the banks.

[02:11:46.69 - 02:11:52.25]

Now Visa needs a telecommunications network amongst all the merchants around the whole

[02:11:52.25 - 02:11:53.83]

world, the country and the world.

[02:11:53.93 - 02:11:56.15]

That's another whole step change.

[02:11:56.45 - 02:11:58.23]

That's like single digit millions of nodes.

[02:11:58.49 - 02:11:58.81]

Yes.

[02:11:59.31 - 02:12:00.61]

So what are they going to do?

[02:12:00.81 - 02:12:04.85]

For the pilot program, they work with one of the big telecom vendors

[02:12:04.85 - 02:12:06.37]

and essentially build it out themselves.

[02:12:07.07 - 02:12:08.39]

We're now in the 1980s here.

[02:12:08.39 - 02:12:11.35]

But they realized during this that there's this new

[02:12:11.35 - 02:12:18.67]

fledgling kind of consumer networking service out there called CompuServe.

[02:12:19.67 - 02:12:23.33]

And for folks who either weren't alive in the U.S. at this time or

[02:12:23.33 - 02:12:27.81]

not Americans, CompuServe was like an AOL competitor in the early days of the internet.

[02:12:28.19 - 02:12:29.43]

I think they invented the GIF.

[02:12:29.95 - 02:12:31.43]

Oh, I think that might be right.

[02:12:31.65 - 02:12:31.91]

Yeah.

[02:12:32.37 - 02:12:37.07]

So as a consumer, you would pay a monthly fee to CompuServe or AOL or whatever,

[02:12:37.07 - 02:12:42.03]

and it would be your internet service provider, but also like your email and,

[02:12:42.21 - 02:12:43.93]

you know, your portal to the web.

[02:12:44.31 - 02:12:45.63]

It was a proprietary internet.

[02:12:45.87 - 02:12:48.79]

So they somehow get in touch with CompuServe.

[02:12:49.11 - 02:12:54.53]

And they realized that CompuServe has this dynamic where they've architected out their

[02:12:54.53 - 02:13:01.71]

network for peak capacity demand, which is probably when consumers are home at night.

[02:13:01.99 - 02:13:06.45]

The rest of the day, they've got all this capacity that's unused sitting on their network.

[02:13:07.07 - 02:13:14.81]

Visa ends up renting CompuServe network capacity to send their digital transactions from merchant

[02:13:14.81 - 02:13:15.95]

point of sale terminals.

[02:13:16.47 - 02:13:18.15]

And I think this goes on for like years.

[02:13:18.87 - 02:13:19.53]

That's crazy.

[02:13:19.99 - 02:13:21.17]

I had no idea.

[02:13:21.37 - 02:13:22.03]

That's fascinating.

[02:13:22.43 - 02:13:22.89]

Totally wild.

[02:13:23.47 - 02:13:28.75]

Normally, you run into the problem where with spare capacity, where like the time where

[02:13:28.75 - 02:13:31.77]

people want your extra capacity is when you have none.

[02:13:31.77 - 02:13:37.27]

So it's kind of amazing to find two complementary use cases for the same infrastructure that

[02:13:37.27 - 02:13:38.89]

when one is waxing, the other is waning.

[02:13:39.45 - 02:13:40.21]

Yeah, pretty cool.

[02:13:40.57 - 02:13:48.87]

So now, finally, with this third step, all the pieces of the transaction are digitized,

[02:13:49.79 - 02:13:52.37]

computerized, fully implemented as part of the network.

[02:13:52.91 - 02:13:56.13]

This has a huge impact on cutting down fraud.

[02:13:56.51 - 02:13:59.37]

So like tons of fraud was happening below the floor limits.

[02:13:59.37 - 02:14:04.41]

If you're charging a $5 transaction to a card, it's just not worth it to the banks and Visa

[02:14:04.41 - 02:14:06.99]

to figure out whether that's fraudulent or not.

[02:14:07.41 - 02:14:11.43]

Now, because it's all digital and instant, they can figure out whether that's fraudulent

[02:14:11.43 - 02:14:11.85]

or not.

[02:14:13.29 - 02:14:19.31]

So during the pilot, banks and merchants that were participating in this program reduced

[02:14:20.01 - 02:14:25.55]

chargebacks to the system by 82% relative to what was happening before.

[02:14:25.55 - 02:14:29.45]

So it's just like a massive amount of fraud gets eliminated.

[02:14:30.49 - 02:14:33.71]

Which actually should totally justify a lower interchange.

[02:14:34.07 - 02:14:38.89]

If you're not paying for all the fraud in the system, then the system should cost less

[02:14:38.89 - 02:14:39.25]

to run.

[02:14:39.59 - 02:14:39.95]

Absolutely.

[02:14:40.37 - 02:14:45.19]

In many ways that, hey, we're going to reward you with lower interchange to install these

[02:14:45.19 - 02:14:45.53]

terminals.

[02:14:45.75 - 02:14:49.43]

Like at the end of the day, Visa probably could have maintained a margin and all the

[02:14:49.43 - 02:14:53.31]

banks could have maintained a profit margin and not lost any margin percentage because

[02:14:53.31 - 02:14:56.27]

implementing this technology lowered the cost of running the whole thing.

[02:14:56.61 - 02:14:56.65]

Yep.

[02:14:56.93 - 02:15:01.25]

Two other results from now having all parts of the system aggregated digitally.

[02:15:02.21 - 02:15:07.51]

One, this is what enables the modern payments world we know today.

[02:15:07.69 - 02:15:12.41]

You walk up to a terminal, you double click your Apple Watch or you insert a card or you

[02:15:12.41 - 02:15:16.23]

tap your reader, whatever, and it just works and it gets authorized and you get your thing

[02:15:16.23 - 02:15:16.71]

immediately.

[02:15:17.31 - 02:15:20.25]

This is the backbone to all of that being possible.

[02:15:21.05 - 02:15:28.65]

Two, though, for Visa as a company and Visa as a business, they are now fully digital.

[02:15:29.21 - 02:15:34.67]

They can scale infinitely with essentially zero marginal cost.

[02:15:35.75 - 02:15:42.39]

We will later talk about what an astonishing financial profile this business has, but for

[02:15:42.39 - 02:15:47.91]

now, just know that at this point, they got to stop spending money and they got to only

[02:15:47.91 - 02:15:51.03]

make every dollar after this basically fell to the bottom line.

[02:15:51.77 - 02:15:55.83]

This unlocks just like an unfathomably good business model.

[02:15:56.25 - 02:16:02.05]

Before this, some element of adding scale into the system required manual labor.

[02:16:02.61 - 02:16:04.75]

Now, it's all just ones and zeros.

[02:16:05.05 - 02:16:07.75]

Now, the toll booth is fully built.

[02:16:08.01 - 02:16:10.25]

It is a high-functioning toll booth.

[02:16:10.75 - 02:16:13.07]

It's an immovable toll booth.

[02:16:13.09 - 02:16:13.75]

It's digitized.

[02:16:13.89 - 02:16:15.77]

It no longer has a human sitting there.

[02:16:15.77 - 02:16:19.09]

Oh, they've got the fast pass system or whatever.

[02:16:19.49 - 02:16:19.93]

Yep.

[02:16:20.37 - 02:16:22.69]

Well, David, catch us up to today.

[02:16:22.89 - 02:16:27.33]

I will give us a bunch of information about the business today, some changes to the business

[02:16:27.33 - 02:16:29.07]

model, and then we can go into analysis.

[02:16:29.27 - 02:16:34.11]

But before that, I know there's obviously the IPO event that we want to talk about in

[02:16:34.11 - 02:16:37.17]

2008 and sort of how the structure of the whole thing changed.

[02:16:37.21 - 02:16:41.67]

But I think you've got a marketing thing that you want to talk about, too.

[02:16:41.67 - 02:16:41.99]

Yeah.

[02:16:42.29 - 02:16:47.93]

There's one more really fun marketing piece that I want to come back to before we move

[02:16:47.93 - 02:16:50.31]

on to today, and that's the Olympics.

[02:16:50.51 - 02:16:56.39]

A lot of people, probably everybody listening now, knows Visa is associated with the Olympics.

[02:16:57.03 - 02:17:01.09]

They're probably the most associated brand other than NBC.

[02:17:01.83 - 02:17:03.13]

But that's only in America.

[02:17:03.71 - 02:17:05.67]

NBC doesn't mean anything around the globe.

[02:17:05.85 - 02:17:08.03]

Visa is the Olympics everywhere.

[02:17:08.75 - 02:17:13.59]

So this happens right around the same time as the digitization of Point of Sale and the

[02:17:13.59 - 02:17:13.81]

Cards.

[02:17:14.33 - 02:17:15.23]

It's 1986.

[02:17:16.41 - 02:17:24.63]

The Olympics, for the first time, they are going around to companies and offering a global

[02:17:24.63 - 02:17:25.87]

Olympic sponsorship.

[02:17:26.19 - 02:17:27.73]

This is just like the NFL episode.

[02:17:28.03 - 02:17:31.63]

Before this, you could sponsor the Olympics in specific countries.

[02:17:31.69 - 02:17:36.37]

You could sponsor whatever broadcast, whatever television radio was covering the Olympics

[02:17:36.37 - 02:17:37.33]

in certain countries.

[02:17:37.33 - 02:17:43.39]

You could have billboards and whatnot, but you couldn't do a global sponsorship.

[02:17:43.61 - 02:17:46.61]

And there's no event like the Olympics that could really do this.

[02:17:46.69 - 02:17:50.01]

I mean, certainly not the Super Bowl, not even the World Cup.

[02:17:50.09 - 02:17:51.43]

You're missing a large part of America.

[02:17:51.43 - 02:17:54.85]

Like, this is the only thing where you're going to reach everybody in the world.

[02:17:55.79 - 02:18:04.95]

And up until this point, one of the mainstay, largest Olympic sponsors in America was American

[02:18:04.95 - 02:18:08.77]

Express, because this fits perfectly with American Express.

[02:18:09.17 - 02:18:11.59]

It's for American business people who are traveling abroad.

[02:18:12.23 - 02:18:12.57]

Olympics.

[02:18:13.01 - 02:18:13.27]

Great.

[02:18:13.57 - 02:18:13.91]

Amazing.

[02:18:14.65 - 02:18:21.27]

The Olympics, the IOC, goes to Amex to try and sign them up to take this marquee global

[02:18:21.27 - 02:18:22.25]

sponsorship slot.

[02:18:22.37 - 02:18:23.31]

They think it's a no-brainer.

[02:18:23.63 - 02:18:26.93]

They give Amex a sweetheart introductory offer deal.

[02:18:27.05 - 02:18:29.77]

You're the first people we're going to $14 million.

[02:18:31.31 - 02:18:32.63]

Amex declines.

[02:18:33.29 - 02:18:33.61]

Whoa.

[02:18:34.25 - 02:18:37.05]

So they had their bite at the apple and they missed it.

[02:18:37.23 - 02:18:44.29]

A couple of years before this, right as the Visa empire was being completed with the full

[02:18:44.29 - 02:18:48.65]

digitization of the network, D ends up getting ousted from the company.

[02:18:49.31 - 02:18:53.63]

I think, you know, if he were still alive today, he would probably agree with the characterization

[02:18:53.63 - 02:18:58.57]

that D was one of the most amazing zero to one entrepreneurs in history.

[02:18:59.53 - 02:19:06.05]

Not so much a one to end kind of guy, especially when the industry in which you are going from

[02:19:06.05 - 02:19:11.81]

one to N and your shareholders and board is all some of the most conservative financial

[02:19:11.81 - 02:19:13.25]

institutions in the world.

[02:19:13.83 - 02:19:19.15]

A lot of conflict starts to erupt, ends up with D leaving the company in 1984.

[02:19:19.85 - 02:19:26.37]

After this happens, Visa brings on a new global chief marketing officer, a guy named John

[02:19:26.37 - 02:19:30.99]

Bennett, who came from 20 years at American express.

[02:19:31.95 - 02:19:38.51]

So he and his team see that Amex has passed on this new, amazing global opportunity with

[02:19:38.51 - 02:19:38.95]

the Olympics.

[02:19:39.57 - 02:19:43.37]

They're also formulating the new Visa marketing strategy.

[02:19:43.51 - 02:19:49.85]

Up until that point, the marketing strategy had been mostly generate category awareness

[02:19:49.85 - 02:19:51.43]

for consumers around the world.

[02:19:52.23 - 02:19:55.81]

To the extent we competed with anybody, we competed with MasterCard.

[02:19:56.01 - 02:19:57.51]

So we positioned against them.

[02:19:58.17 - 02:20:00.35]

John comes in and he's like, no, no, no, no.

[02:20:00.87 - 02:20:04.29]

The path to victory here is not positioning against MasterCard.

[02:20:04.53 - 02:20:08.53]

The path to victory is positioning against American express.

[02:20:09.19 - 02:20:12.19]

Not because we want to kill American express.

[02:20:12.37 - 02:20:13.41]

We don't actually care.

[02:20:13.53 - 02:20:21.11]

We're way, way, way bigger than American express, but we need global ubiquity and adoption.

[02:20:21.11 - 02:20:25.91]

And people to get comfortable with using Visa and using credit cards.

[02:20:26.03 - 02:20:27.41]

Remember, there's still this social stigma.

[02:20:27.53 - 02:20:32.49]

That woman in 1993 in Burger King who's like, oh, it's sad if you're using debt to buy a

[02:20:32.49 - 02:20:32.89]

hamburger.

[02:20:33.69 - 02:20:38.03]

Which is so interesting because a signature piece of the Bank of America card since it

[02:20:38.03 - 02:20:43.33]

launched was that it is actually a charge card where at the end of the first month,

[02:20:43.39 - 02:20:45.95]

you have the option to turn it into a loan.

[02:20:46.17 - 02:20:48.09]

But I have never elected that option.

[02:20:48.09 - 02:20:50.89]

I hold these things called credit cards, but that's a misnomer.

[02:20:51.19 - 02:20:52.51]

I've never once used any credit.

[02:20:53.49 - 02:20:59.27]

And if this were certainly 1986 and still 1993, you would not feel that way.

[02:20:59.35 - 02:21:01.97]

You might feel that way about your American express card, but you wouldn't feel that way

[02:21:01.97 - 02:21:02.79]

about your Visa card.

[02:21:03.23 - 02:21:03.59]

Right.

[02:21:03.87 - 02:21:06.63]

Although I should say it's probably false to say I've never used any credit.

[02:21:06.81 - 02:21:10.31]

The bank does float you the money for a month, but they have a one month grace period where

[02:21:10.31 - 02:21:11.21]

you have no interest.

[02:21:11.37 - 02:21:12.61]

Yes, you are using debt.

[02:21:12.71 - 02:21:13.67]

You're just not paying interest.

[02:21:14.05 - 02:21:14.37]

Yes.

[02:21:15.05 - 02:21:16.73]

Which, you know, hey, that's a great thing to do.

[02:21:16.73 - 02:21:19.85]

That's an amazing gift that these banks give the world.

[02:21:20.21 - 02:21:20.85]

It's the American way.

[02:21:21.13 - 02:21:22.85]

So John had just started.

[02:21:23.19 - 02:21:30.71]

The strategy is use American express to eliminate the stigma around Visa and by association,

[02:21:30.97 - 02:21:36.53]

paint MasterCard as having that stigma because we're not even bothering to talk about them.

[02:21:36.83 - 02:21:39.29]

So how do we go after American express?

[02:21:39.81 - 02:21:42.27]

Well, the network is much smaller.

[02:21:42.27 - 02:21:47.67]

The American express merchant network at the time was about 25% the size of visas.

[02:21:48.25 - 02:21:54.79]

So they design a whole marketing campaign around going after American express and the

[02:21:54.79 - 02:21:59.81]

tagline of the campaign, you know, they show these exotic locales that the type of customers

[02:21:59.81 - 02:22:03.99]

who would be using American express, that they would be dining at these restaurants

[02:22:03.99 - 02:22:06.47]

or going to these events or going on these vacations.

[02:22:06.59 - 02:22:11.49]

And the end folks who are of our similar age, probably remember exactly the words here.

[02:22:11.49 - 02:22:17.61]

If you go there, remember to take your Visa card because they don't take American express.

[02:22:18.43 - 02:22:19.25]

So great.

[02:22:19.47 - 02:22:21.43]

And then the second tagline to it was Visa.

[02:22:21.69 - 02:22:23.13]

It's everywhere you want to be.

[02:22:23.75 - 02:22:30.23]

So the Olympics come up after Amex declines, John and the team get in touch with the IOC.

[02:22:30.73 - 02:22:35.01]

The price tag has gone up to $17 million just for the rights.

[02:22:35.29 - 02:22:38.15]

That's before any media buys, no advertising.

[02:22:38.15 - 02:22:40.97]

It's just for the right to be a global sponsor of the Olympics.

[02:22:41.77 - 02:22:43.01]

They pull the trigger.

[02:22:43.73 - 02:22:47.29]

They become the founding like global Olympic sponsor.

[02:22:47.63 - 02:22:53.69]

They spend another $23 million in media for the 1988 Olympics.

[02:22:53.83 - 02:22:59.23]

So $40 million in total on one global event.

[02:22:59.29 - 02:23:02.69]

Well, the two, there's the summer and the winter Olympics, but like one year of global

[02:23:02.69 - 02:23:03.57]

events.

[02:23:04.17 - 02:23:07.01]

That's about $110 million in today's dollars.

[02:23:07.01 - 02:23:07.49]

Yeah.

[02:23:07.83 - 02:23:12.57]

Wild way more than they spent on any of the technology projects that we were just talking

[02:23:12.57 - 02:23:12.93]

about.

[02:23:13.03 - 02:23:14.25]

I mean, yeah.

[02:23:14.45 - 02:23:16.61]

R and D costs money, but go to market costs more.

[02:23:16.71 - 02:23:17.03]

Yeah.

[02:23:17.39 - 02:23:18.39]

What's the line?

[02:23:18.47 - 02:23:20.39]

First time founders focus on technology.

[02:23:20.49 - 02:23:22.11]

Second time founders focus on distribution.

[02:23:22.39 - 02:23:22.87]

Yep.

[02:23:23.23 - 02:23:31.07]

And then the real kicker, they of course become the exclusive payment provider at the Olympics.

[02:23:31.07 - 02:23:38.29]

So everybody now coming to the Olympics, which is like a lot of people from around the world

[02:23:38.29 - 02:23:44.73]

that are going to the Olympics, the only payment card provider accepted there is Visa.

[02:23:44.99 - 02:23:48.77]

So they're training all these people that are going to the Olympics year after year

[02:23:48.77 - 02:23:49.51]

after year.

[02:23:49.91 - 02:23:55.95]

It has now been 37 years that Visa is the exclusive payments, global sponsor of the

[02:23:55.95 - 02:23:56.31]

Olympics.

[02:23:56.31 - 02:24:04.37]

They're contracted through 2032, so it will be at least 46 years where Visa is the only

[02:24:04.37 - 02:24:07.03]

card accepted at the Olympics.

[02:24:07.97 - 02:24:11.09]

Which that's not that big a deal because there's not that many people that go relative

[02:24:11.09 - 02:24:14.23]

to the people that see the media and understand the brand association.

[02:24:14.55 - 02:24:15.17]

Of course, of course.

[02:24:15.51 - 02:24:20.17]

But the reason we're talking about this, hey, it's an awesome story, but to the last

[02:24:20.17 - 02:24:25.19]

outstanding piece of enabling the global Visa empire, this last thing is the stigma.

[02:24:25.19 - 02:24:30.81]

How do they get rid of the stigma of I can use my credit card and not feel like it's

[02:24:30.81 - 02:24:31.49]

a taboo?

[02:24:31.73 - 02:24:32.41]

This was it.

[02:24:33.15 - 02:24:35.49]

Position against Amex, go to the Olympics.

[02:24:35.91 - 02:24:36.97]

It's the perfect event.

[02:24:37.23 - 02:24:40.83]

You're around the world, the type of people who go to the Olympics, the type of people

[02:24:40.83 - 02:24:41.71]

who use Amex.

[02:24:41.89 - 02:24:43.91]

They use their Visa cards and they're proud of it.

[02:24:44.71 - 02:24:44.89]

Love it.

[02:24:45.21 - 02:24:46.75]

So David, take us to the IPO.

[02:24:46.99 - 02:24:53.33]

This thing was an organization that was owned but not with stock.

[02:24:53.33 - 02:24:56.35]

A for-profit non-stock membership organization.

[02:24:57.19 - 02:24:59.53]

And now they're an enormously profitable public company.

[02:24:59.63 - 02:25:00.93]

So how did we get from there to here?

[02:25:01.03 - 02:25:01.27]

Yep.

[02:25:01.35 - 02:25:03.47]

Just about a half a trillion dollar market cap.

[02:25:04.21 - 02:25:11.27]

So the precipitating event wasn't actually the banks trying to get greedy and monetize

[02:25:11.27 - 02:25:13.99]

their asset, although they did monetize the asset.

[02:25:14.23 - 02:25:16.61]

They were monetizing it just fine the way that they currently owned it.

[02:25:16.71 - 02:25:16.95]

Yes.

[02:25:17.13 - 02:25:20.53]

The profits being spit out of the system were just fine.

[02:25:21.09 - 02:25:26.47]

In 2005, there finally was another huge antitrust lawsuit.

[02:25:26.59 - 02:25:28.69]

I think against both Visa and MasterCard.

[02:25:29.15 - 02:25:35.29]

It actually is a class action lawsuit that the merchants brought.

[02:25:35.83 - 02:25:38.79]

And they basically got fully fed up with interchange.

[02:25:39.23 - 02:25:45.47]

And every 10 years or so, there's some meaningful merchant push to try to change interchange.

[02:25:45.79 - 02:25:48.93]

And they either do it in Congress or they do it in a class action case.

[02:25:48.93 - 02:25:50.47]

You know, there's a variety of different ways.

[02:25:50.95 - 02:25:55.87]

And this particular class action suit in 2005 is still running today.

[02:25:56.41 - 02:26:02.87]

And the numbers have mostly been figured out of how much Visa will owe from a 2012 ruling

[02:26:02.87 - 02:26:04.41]

that then got appealed.

[02:26:04.57 - 02:26:05.63]

So it's sort of still going on.

[02:26:05.83 - 02:26:10.95]

But basically, there was a lot of uncertainty in the 2005 and 2006 time frame of,

[02:26:11.47 - 02:26:13.63]

geez, what's the liability here going to be?

[02:26:13.63 - 02:26:19.11]

And MasterCard had gone public and did not sort through this issue at all.

[02:26:19.39 - 02:26:20.67]

They just said, oh, we're going public.

[02:26:20.85 - 02:26:23.23]

And shareholders, yep, there's lots of uncertainty in our future.

[02:26:23.37 - 02:26:25.59]

And like, we'll see, but buy our stock.

[02:26:25.87 - 02:26:28.33]

And that, as you can imagine, did not go well at all.

[02:26:28.63 - 02:26:33.81]

And so as they're getting ready to go public for lots of reasons, basically, it was time.

[02:26:33.99 - 02:26:38.13]

They wanted to have some liquid currency that floated for acquisitions.

[02:26:38.13 - 02:26:40.83]

They had to be competitive with MasterCard, who was going public.

[02:26:41.01 - 02:26:42.17]

Amex was already public.

[02:26:42.17 - 02:26:45.17]

You can reward and retain talent easier.

[02:26:45.29 - 02:26:49.35]

There's just lots of reasons why you would want this thing to be sort of a standalone entity,

[02:26:49.51 - 02:26:51.01]

especially at this point in history.

[02:26:51.73 - 02:26:54.57]

And what they had to do was they created these B shares,

[02:26:55.05 - 02:26:59.75]

and they isolated all the liability from this class action suit to the B shares.

[02:27:00.25 - 02:27:05.79]

So while MasterCard had a pretty flubbed IPO, Visa had a great IPO because they said,

[02:27:06.09 - 02:27:09.89]

whatever the court's rule, the banks who own the B shares,

[02:27:09.89 - 02:27:14.19]

the pre-existing shareholders will own all that liability and all the A shares,

[02:27:14.41 - 02:27:17.45]

the new people who are coming in as owners of the company will be protected.

[02:27:18.03 - 02:27:18.67]

Oh, that's awesome.

[02:27:18.71 - 02:27:20.09]

I didn't realize that in the research.

[02:27:20.21 - 02:27:22.73]

It finally happens in 2008.

[02:27:23.41 - 02:27:28.93]

Visa goes public right as the financial crisis is starting, which obviously wasn't planned,

[02:27:29.17 - 02:27:33.93]

but ends up being great for the banks and probably for Visa too.

[02:27:34.21 - 02:27:37.73]

It becomes the largest U.S. IPO in history.

[02:27:37.73 - 02:27:44.33]

Up to that point, they raised $18 billion at a $90 billion initial market cap,

[02:27:44.43 - 02:27:50.27]

but that $18 billion wasn't primary capital to the company's balance sheet because

[02:27:50.27 - 02:27:54.07]

obviously Visa was incredibly profitable, did not need capital.

[02:27:54.41 - 02:27:55.03]

It prints money.

[02:27:55.13 - 02:27:56.79]

Why would you want to raise capital in dilute?

[02:27:56.85 - 02:28:03.03]

That $18 billion was secondary selling to the banks that owned the company,

[02:28:03.03 - 02:28:08.15]

which I think for many of them proved to be a total lifeline through

[02:28:08.15 - 02:28:10.23]

the financial crisis that helped them survive.

[02:28:11.05 - 02:28:11.13]

Yep.

[02:28:11.75 - 02:28:15.53]

I mean, now Visa is owned mostly by big institutional shareholders,

[02:28:15.77 - 02:28:19.75]

the vanguards and fidelities of the world, and the banks are much smaller shareholders.

[02:28:20.37 - 02:28:25.37]

Well, at this point, Visa's market cap is significantly larger than any of its former

[02:28:25.37 - 02:28:26.37]

member banks.

[02:28:26.99 - 02:28:27.57]

It's wild.

[02:28:28.03 - 02:28:29.67]

I mean, DHOC basically was right.

[02:28:29.67 - 02:28:36.51]

That's the TLDR on this is this thing, this information network that doesn't have to take

[02:28:36.51 - 02:28:38.37]

on any of the risk of any of these transactions.

[02:28:38.37 - 02:28:44.97]

It's purely about connecting buyers to sellers and moving information back and forth has

[02:28:44.97 - 02:28:48.03]

proven to be maybe the best business model ever.

[02:28:48.35 - 02:28:51.65]

And let's go through the shape of the business today and listeners, you can decide.

[02:28:52.11 - 02:28:58.19]

So David and I have made passing references to the idea that this is this ludicrously

[02:28:58.19 - 02:28:59.31]

cash generative business.

[02:29:00.17 - 02:29:05.35]

And I think it's time to actually examine interchange fees today, how they've changed

[02:29:05.35 - 02:29:09.59]

over time, how they flow, who benefits, what's Visa's cut, all of that.

[02:29:09.69 - 02:29:10.91]

So you can kind of understand it.

[02:29:11.21 - 02:29:13.57]

So Visa's business model.

[02:29:14.21 - 02:29:20.37]

The first thing to know is almost nothing has changed since the 80s to today on how

[02:29:20.37 - 02:29:21.69]

the transactions work.

[02:29:21.69 - 02:29:27.89]

So the authorization flow is exactly the same as it was where all the auth flows upstream.

[02:29:28.45 - 02:29:33.61]

The merchant runs the card, checks with their bank, who checks with VisaNet, who checks

[02:29:33.61 - 02:29:34.69]

with the issuer's bank.

[02:29:35.11 - 02:29:38.29]

Is this account in good standing to make this transaction or not?

[02:29:38.51 - 02:29:42.57]

And once they get the yes, then the response flows all the way back down the chain in the

[02:29:42.57 - 02:29:46.57]

order that ultimately the flow of funds will happen later on.

[02:29:46.57 - 02:29:52.73]

And, you know, within milliseconds, unbelievably short period of time, no matter where you

[02:29:52.73 - 02:29:57.15]

are in the world, no matter what currency you are transacting in, your transaction can

[02:29:57.15 - 02:29:57.47]

happen.

[02:29:57.93 - 02:29:58.69]

Pretty unbelievable.

[02:29:59.05 - 02:30:03.37]

Amazing that within seconds you can know for certain that someone is vouching for the customer's

[02:30:03.37 - 02:30:04.33]

money and paying in full.

[02:30:04.77 - 02:30:06.09]

Well, nearly in full.

[02:30:06.47 - 02:30:07.81]

Minus a merchant discount rate.

[02:30:08.35 - 02:30:10.31]

So what is this merchant discount rate?

[02:30:10.61 - 02:30:11.97]

There are a few things at play here.

[02:30:11.97 - 02:30:18.35]

There are interchange fees, and those interchange fees go to the issuing bank.

[02:30:18.65 - 02:30:25.43]

There are assessment fees or network fees, and that network fee goes to Visa, MasterCard,

[02:30:25.53 - 02:30:25.79]

et cetera.

[02:30:26.29 - 02:30:31.39]

And then there are payment processing fees, and those go to the acquiring bank, the bank

[02:30:31.39 - 02:30:32.43]

that acquired the merchant.

[02:30:32.55 - 02:30:37.51]

This is the merchant's bank and the technology provider of whatever they're using to process

[02:30:37.51 - 02:30:38.01]

their payments.

[02:30:38.01 - 02:30:42.41]

So three fees, interchange, network fees, payment processing fees.

[02:30:42.85 - 02:30:45.49]

Here's what those could look like.

[02:30:45.61 - 02:30:48.99]

And again, I say could because they are different in every scenario.

[02:30:49.33 - 02:30:53.99]

There's a very long PDF on Visa's website that is available with every different concoction

[02:30:53.99 - 02:30:54.65]

you could imagine.

[02:30:54.95 - 02:31:01.29]

So here's an example of a large merchant in the United States, so no foreign transaction,

[02:31:01.77 - 02:31:03.03]

accepting a credit card.

[02:31:03.03 - 02:31:08.23]

It is obviously different whether we're talking debit, smaller merchants, but large merchant,

[02:31:08.37 - 02:31:09.11]

U.S. credit card.

[02:31:09.53 - 02:31:13.63]

The merchant is charged a 2% discount off the sale price.

[02:31:13.71 - 02:31:15.23]

So it was $100 a pair of shoes.

[02:31:15.53 - 02:31:19.17]

You're now making $98, and what happens to that 2%?

[02:31:19.83 - 02:31:24.13]

So that 2%, the lion's share of it is the interchange, the 1.6%.

[02:31:24.63 - 02:31:27.57]

That goes to the bank that issued the card.

[02:31:27.97 - 02:31:29.41]

To the cardholder, to the consumer.

[02:31:29.87 - 02:31:30.17]

Right.

[02:31:30.17 - 02:31:35.95]

So when everybody on the planet is marketing credit card offers to you, they get the lion's

[02:31:35.95 - 02:31:36.81]

share of the interchange.

[02:31:37.09 - 02:31:41.49]

So they actually have a lot to play with in customer acquisition for their cards because

[02:31:41.49 - 02:31:46.01]

they make the lion's share of the transaction, the interchange.

[02:31:46.51 - 02:31:49.47]

There's a lot of costs in there too because they bear all the fraud risk.

[02:31:49.77 - 02:31:53.53]

There's a lot of things they got to do, but you know, they get most of the money.

[02:31:54.17 - 02:32:00.69]

A small amount on the order of like 0.2% or 20 bips for you finance people out there

[02:32:00.69 - 02:32:03.01]

goes to the bank that acquired the merchant.

[02:32:03.21 - 02:32:06.69]

This could be Chase, Fiserv, Wells Fargo.

[02:32:07.11 - 02:32:08.89]

This is, you know, the merchant's bank.

[02:32:09.49 - 02:32:13.51]

It is important to know this may also get split with a technology provider.

[02:32:13.71 - 02:32:18.59]

So sometimes the financial institution directly has technology that you can use.

[02:32:18.59 - 02:32:23.59]

But other times the checkout terminal or software that you're using is not actually

[02:32:23.59 - 02:32:25.21]

the financial institution behind it.

[02:32:25.23 - 02:32:29.69]

So that 0.2% can kind of get split between the financial institution and the technology

[02:32:29.69 - 02:32:30.07]

provider.

[02:32:30.27 - 02:32:33.15]

And those are folks like First Data and stuff like that, right?

[02:32:33.61 - 02:32:33.93]

Yes.

[02:32:34.77 - 02:32:38.63]

0.15 to 0.2% goes to the network.

[02:32:39.19 - 02:32:41.83]

This number is actually quite hard to find.

[02:32:42.11 - 02:32:46.95]

You read Visa's entire annual report and you're like, wait, but what part of the split do

[02:32:46.95 - 02:32:47.81]

you actually get?

[02:32:48.59 - 02:32:51.31]

And it's because they get it in a variety of different ways.

[02:32:51.87 - 02:32:57.19]

I would say I don't know if the Visa people would tell you this is intentionally obfuscated

[02:32:57.19 - 02:33:02.77]

or if it just ends up being kind of obfuscated, but it's not super easy to figure this out.

[02:33:03.49 - 02:33:10.17]

So Visa, let's round it to 0.2%, gets 20 cents of that $100 shoe sale.

[02:33:10.63 - 02:33:14.85]

But the cool thing about their 20 cents is there's basically no variable costs.

[02:33:15.45 - 02:33:17.55]

It's not dealing with fraud.

[02:33:17.55 - 02:33:20.11]

It's not moving heavy data around.

[02:33:20.27 - 02:33:24.89]

I mean, merchants are allowed to have a 20-character name in Visa's network.

[02:33:25.13 - 02:33:26.81]

Like, this is tiny amounts of data.

[02:33:26.93 - 02:33:29.41]

Stack as much metadata as you want on top of that.

[02:33:29.67 - 02:33:31.85]

We are not shipping around huge payloads here.

[02:33:31.95 - 02:33:37.03]

There is not like NVIDIA chips that need to run in these data centers to do any crazy

[02:33:37.03 - 02:33:38.33]

LLM processing.

[02:33:38.51 - 02:33:43.03]

Like, this is just shipping very small pieces of information around.

[02:33:43.03 - 02:33:48.51]

The payload size of the data has remained infinitesimally small relative to the amount

[02:33:48.51 - 02:33:49.87]

that technology has progressed.

[02:33:50.27 - 02:33:57.53]

This 0.2%, the 20 cents on the $100 transaction, very low variable costs associated with that.

[02:33:58.09 - 02:34:00.05]

So a few caveats on this.

[02:34:00.95 - 02:34:06.55]

Debit is significantly less in most cases and often thanks to regulatory reasons.

[02:34:07.09 - 02:34:10.87]

And the logic here is nobody's actually taking any risk to extend credit.

[02:34:10.87 - 02:34:14.77]

So banks should not get to make a bunch of money on debit.

[02:34:14.97 - 02:34:18.49]

It's literally just moving money out of your account and into the merchant's account.

[02:34:18.69 - 02:34:20.37]

So debit cards are going to be less.

[02:34:20.73 - 02:34:26.51]

Smaller merchants often pay closer to 3% than 2% because they're just doing lower volume.

[02:34:27.17 - 02:34:32.61]

And for these small businesses, the acquiring bank actually has to do a lot more work.

[02:34:33.07 - 02:34:36.91]

Think about how difficult it is to market a credit card to an individual.

[02:34:37.15 - 02:34:39.67]

Well, small businesses kind of behave like individuals.

[02:34:39.67 - 02:34:44.95]

So because the acquiring bank actually has to do a lot more work and incur costs,

[02:34:45.53 - 02:34:46.79]

they get to make more money.

[02:34:47.19 - 02:34:52.57]

So there's sort of this very interesting thing that has happened where interchange

[02:34:52.57 - 02:34:55.85]

is intentionally quite flexible.

[02:34:56.29 - 02:34:59.09]

This is a playbook theme that I want to pull forward.

[02:34:59.69 - 02:35:05.69]

This business is probably the greatest master class in the entire world on incentive alignment.

[02:35:05.69 - 02:35:10.65]

And I was talking with Lisa Ellis at Moffitt Nathanson, who sort of woke me up to this idea.

[02:35:10.87 - 02:35:13.65]

The interchange pool has an elegance to it.

[02:35:13.65 - 02:35:17.77]

Since the money never actually gets sent to the merchant,

[02:35:18.01 - 02:35:22.59]

the network and its partner banks or constituent banks can kind of figure out

[02:35:22.59 - 02:35:27.35]

exactly how it should flow in each of these particular types of transactions.

[02:35:27.35 - 02:35:31.97]

It's an envelope of value that the whole ecosystem can sort of play with.

[02:35:31.97 - 02:35:35.21]

And I think that's an important thing to realize about interchange

[02:35:35.21 - 02:35:36.85]

is that it's intentionally flexible.

[02:35:37.67 - 02:35:37.69]

Yep.

[02:35:37.83 - 02:35:42.41]

Which brings up an obvious point that we perhaps didn't highlight as specifically

[02:35:42.41 - 02:35:43.51]

as we should have earlier.

[02:35:43.99 - 02:35:46.99]

This network is actually a five-sided system.

[02:35:47.45 - 02:35:51.19]

There's the consumer that is buying something.

[02:35:51.37 - 02:35:54.51]

There's the merchant that is selling that something to them.

[02:35:54.79 - 02:35:56.91]

There's the Visa network in the middle.

[02:35:56.99 - 02:35:58.21]

That's the third party.

[02:35:58.21 - 02:36:01.19]

But then there also are the fourth and the fifth parties,

[02:36:01.49 - 02:36:06.75]

which are the banks for each of the consumer, the issuing bank, and the merchant, the merchant bank.

[02:36:06.95 - 02:36:10.47]

So this sort of envelope of value concept makes sense

[02:36:10.47 - 02:36:15.49]

because those three parties in the middle, Visa and the two banks,

[02:36:15.91 - 02:36:17.53]

they need to split up the value.

[02:36:17.87 - 02:36:22.33]

And depending on who is doing what work, it should be split different ways.

[02:36:23.09 - 02:36:26.35]

And Visa has created these products where, you know, it's not just a Visa card.

[02:36:26.35 - 02:36:30.69]

You might get a Visa signature, a Visa signature business, or a Visa...

[02:36:30.69 - 02:36:31.63]

I don't even know what they are.

[02:36:31.75 - 02:36:33.23]

But they basically have said,

[02:36:33.59 - 02:36:38.95]

why don't we come up with other types of Visa cards that just have higher interchange?

[02:36:39.35 - 02:36:42.97]

And merchants are like, what do you mean just have higher interchange?

[02:36:43.23 - 02:36:45.35]

Your new product is you charge me more?

[02:36:45.75 - 02:36:51.71]

And Visa says, well, the cool thing about higher interchange is that there's more money

[02:36:51.71 - 02:36:56.19]

in the envelope to play with to reward other constituents in the transaction.

[02:36:56.61 - 02:37:00.03]

And so let's say we want to tell the issuing bank,

[02:37:00.27 - 02:37:04.01]

hey, for this tier, this Visa signature, you actually get more money.

[02:37:04.13 - 02:37:06.21]

Well, then they turn around and say,

[02:37:06.45 - 02:37:09.81]

cool, I'm going to go and I'm going to give better rewards

[02:37:09.81 - 02:37:14.33]

to higher spending, you know, more credit worthy customers.

[02:37:14.51 - 02:37:18.03]

And then Visa's argument back to the merchant is, well, hey,

[02:37:18.03 - 02:37:22.11]

because we're actually taking more money on this fancier card,

[02:37:22.33 - 02:37:26.67]

you're getting access to customers that we've now brought onto our network

[02:37:26.67 - 02:37:30.31]

who are much better customers that you really want to have at your establishment.

[02:37:30.91 - 02:37:34.89]

And so it's this very interesting, again, envelope of value,

[02:37:34.95 - 02:37:37.59]

I think is the way to describe it, where, you know,

[02:37:37.63 - 02:37:42.25]

I'm sure the merchants wish they could be more a part of the decision process.

[02:37:42.25 - 02:37:48.25]

But it does theoretically enable incentives to be spread around

[02:37:48.25 - 02:37:50.07]

that benefit everyone in the ecosystem.

[02:37:50.55 - 02:37:56.13]

Yep. And for merchants of scale today, they're cut in on this too, right?

[02:37:56.25 - 02:37:58.79]

There's the Alaska Airlines mileage card.

[02:37:59.01 - 02:38:00.79]

There's the Costco card.

[02:38:01.03 - 02:38:06.53]

Like merchants are able to, by working with banks,

[02:38:06.83 - 02:38:10.13]

be part of this discussion too, if you're of a certain size.

[02:38:10.69 - 02:38:14.63]

Right. In the olden days, you know, if you're the Affinity logo

[02:38:14.63 - 02:38:17.45]

that got printed in the top stripe, the way that works today is

[02:38:17.45 - 02:38:21.13]

you have a special deal with the issuing bank where you're going to say,

[02:38:21.23 - 02:38:23.41]

hey, we're going to help you get more card members

[02:38:23.41 - 02:38:25.37]

by putting our logo on the card.

[02:38:25.89 - 02:38:28.89]

And so even though oftentimes we're the merchant,

[02:38:29.39 - 02:38:31.93]

well, actually what we're doing is we're helping you

[02:38:31.93 - 02:38:34.33]

distribute cards on the issuing side.

[02:38:34.47 - 02:38:38.59]

And maybe there's cool things we can do when those cards are spent

[02:38:38.59 - 02:38:41.39]

at our establishment where we give extra awards,

[02:38:41.55 - 02:38:45.31]

but it's effectively marketing channel for the issuing bank.

[02:38:45.55 - 02:38:47.27]

So they get to split some of those economics.

[02:38:48.17 - 02:38:51.99]

And I guess at the absolute very highest levels of scale,

[02:38:51.99 - 02:38:55.19]

you have something like the Amazon and JPMorgan Chase relationship

[02:38:55.19 - 02:38:59.27]

where JPMorgan Chase is the merchant bank

[02:38:59.27 - 02:39:05.39]

and JPMorgan Chase is one of the largest issuing banks for cards in the world.

[02:39:05.39 - 02:39:09.63]

And so the Amazon Chase credit card that I have

[02:39:09.63 - 02:39:11.59]

and I do all my shopping on Amazon with

[02:39:11.59 - 02:39:13.35]

and all my shopping at Whole Foods with

[02:39:13.35 - 02:39:16.45]

is able to give me 5% cash back rewards.

[02:39:16.87 - 02:39:21.03]

So Amazon or JPMorgan, and in this case, the two of them working together

[02:39:21.03 - 02:39:24.07]

represent three of the five parties in this transaction.

[02:39:24.35 - 02:39:28.51]

The only people not party to this are the consumer

[02:39:28.51 - 02:39:30.35]

and Visa, the network itself.

[02:39:30.85 - 02:39:33.49]

And so thus that's how they're able to do so much special stuff.

[02:39:33.49 - 02:39:36.29]

They can control so much of that envelope of value.

[02:39:36.73 - 02:39:40.01]

Yes, it is worth pointing out the system today

[02:39:40.01 - 02:39:43.35]

is pretty tough to change absent government intervention.

[02:39:44.25 - 02:39:48.49]

Consumers who spend the most love the system the way that it is.

[02:39:48.59 - 02:39:51.77]

A huge amount of the fees that merchants pay

[02:39:51.77 - 02:39:54.15]

come back to these consumers in the form of rewards.

[02:39:54.33 - 02:39:58.27]

So the issuers and the networks end up with the consumer

[02:39:58.27 - 02:40:01.53]

as their advocate for the system as it exists today.

[02:40:01.53 - 02:40:05.67]

And meanwhile, no retailer owns enough of the total transactions

[02:40:05.67 - 02:40:08.15]

to actually go invent their own better system.

[02:40:08.31 - 02:40:10.75]

So when merchants have tried to go and get consumers

[02:40:10.75 - 02:40:13.23]

to go direct and give them their bank account information,

[02:40:13.55 - 02:40:15.25]

typically consumers won't do it

[02:40:15.25 - 02:40:17.85]

unless they get some very high number of percent back.

[02:40:18.21 - 02:40:20.33]

And that's actually more expensive than the interchange.

[02:40:20.53 - 02:40:24.77]

The way that you end up having to pay your consumers

[02:40:24.77 - 02:40:27.91]

in order to change their behavior away from credit cards

[02:40:27.91 - 02:40:30.11]

that they love the rewards so much on

[02:40:30.11 - 02:40:32.61]

is to do something non-economic.

[02:40:32.87 - 02:40:35.85]

Like you have to believe that there's some long-term benefit to doing it.

[02:40:36.09 - 02:40:39.45]

Yeah. And famously, Walmart and Target too, I think,

[02:40:39.49 - 02:40:41.97]

have been trying to do this for years and years and years,

[02:40:42.31 - 02:40:43.75]

and they never can make it work.

[02:40:44.23 - 02:40:46.29]

Nope. And the reason is basically like

[02:40:46.29 - 02:40:49.39]

no one can ever figure out how to incentivize

[02:40:49.39 - 02:40:51.71]

all the parties that need to change behavior

[02:40:51.71 - 02:40:53.47]

enough to change the behavior.

[02:40:53.95 - 02:40:56.83]

And the merchant in most cases

[02:40:56.83 - 02:41:01.03]

is really the only party that is not thrilled with this arrangement.

[02:41:02.05 - 02:41:03.29]

Totally. I mean, the most negative way

[02:41:03.29 - 02:41:05.57]

someone could paint the ecosystem as it exists today

[02:41:05.57 - 02:41:07.15]

is that the whole credit card system

[02:41:07.15 - 02:41:09.91]

is a wide-scale bribe of the American consumer

[02:41:09.91 - 02:41:13.01]

to like extort the world's retailers

[02:41:13.01 - 02:41:15.09]

using the retailer's own money.

[02:41:15.29 - 02:41:19.31]

But that is like a very cynical way to view it.

[02:41:19.53 - 02:41:21.97]

Yeah. I mean, I guess you could take that one step further

[02:41:21.97 - 02:41:24.29]

and say consumers actually do bear the brunt of it

[02:41:24.29 - 02:41:26.21]

because merchants will just raise their prices

[02:41:26.21 - 02:41:27.31]

to compensate for it.

[02:41:27.79 - 02:41:28.79]

So that's a strong argument.

[02:41:28.99 - 02:41:30.93]

There's been independent research firms

[02:41:30.93 - 02:41:31.95]

that have looked into this

[02:41:31.95 - 02:41:33.89]

and basically determined that

[02:41:33.89 - 02:41:36.53]

this is a reverse Robin Hood scenario,

[02:41:36.53 - 02:41:38.37]

that the wealthiest consumers

[02:41:38.37 - 02:41:40.55]

are the ones who have rewards cards.

[02:41:40.97 - 02:41:43.95]

And because all the goods are marked up

[02:41:43.95 - 02:41:46.35]

to accommodate interchange...

[02:41:46.35 - 02:41:48.61]

Right. No matter who's buying, the goods are marked up.

[02:41:48.81 - 02:41:50.49]

Right. If you aren't someone

[02:41:50.49 - 02:41:53.27]

that has a rewards-based credit card,

[02:41:53.27 - 02:41:55.83]

then your stuff just got more expensive.

[02:41:56.13 - 02:41:58.07]

And so the research firm that looked into this,

[02:41:58.19 - 02:41:59.75]

actually, I think it was the Fed,

[02:41:59.87 - 02:42:01.53]

the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston,

[02:42:01.93 - 02:42:03.73]

determined that on average each year,

[02:42:04.13 - 02:42:06.89]

a household that uses cash to pay for things

[02:42:08.21 - 02:42:11.21]

pays $149 inflated prices

[02:42:11.21 - 02:42:13.23]

because all prices, no matter how you pay,

[02:42:13.31 - 02:42:15.87]

have to go up in order to make it

[02:42:15.87 - 02:42:18.89]

so that paying in cash and cards is equivalent

[02:42:18.89 - 02:42:20.41]

because in most states, it's actually illegal

[02:42:20.41 - 02:42:21.75]

to charge a meaningful premium

[02:42:21.75 - 02:42:23.57]

to people who are using credit cards.

[02:42:24.07 - 02:42:27.83]

So on average, a cash-using household pays $149.

[02:42:28.63 - 02:42:29.69]

Effectively in subsidy.

[02:42:30.15 - 02:42:32.19]

Yes. But a card-using household

[02:42:33.21 - 02:42:35.63]

receives $1,100 in value.

[02:42:35.91 - 02:42:38.21]

$1,100? I mean, I guess that makes sense.

[02:42:38.29 - 02:42:39.57]

I think about the value of the rewards

[02:42:39.57 - 02:42:40.25]

I get every year.

[02:42:40.67 - 02:42:41.55]

It's on average, what is it?

[02:42:41.59 - 02:42:43.03]

2% of everything you put on your card.

[02:42:43.29 - 02:42:46.65]

Yeah. Which, I mean, especially us running a business,

[02:42:46.79 - 02:42:48.31]

like, yeah, we put a lot of stuff on cards.

[02:42:48.69 - 02:42:50.35]

Right. That is the other argument

[02:42:50.35 - 02:42:53.13]

that this is, like, kind of net bad for the world

[02:42:53.13 - 02:42:56.05]

is that it's regressive in who it rewards

[02:42:56.05 - 02:42:57.27]

and who it penalizes.

[02:42:57.85 - 02:42:59.65]

The other reason why it's really hard

[02:42:59.65 - 02:43:01.79]

to change the system is

[02:43:01.79 - 02:43:03.81]

this whole thing is a chicken or the egg problem.

[02:43:03.95 - 02:43:05.47]

I mean, every two-sided marketplace

[02:43:05.47 - 02:43:06.85]

is a chicken or the egg problem.

[02:43:07.55 - 02:43:08.87]

Bank of America solved this

[02:43:08.87 - 02:43:10.03]

when there were no regulations

[02:43:10.03 - 02:43:12.93]

by dropping 65,000 credit lines

[02:43:12.93 - 02:43:14.81]

on unwitting Americans,

[02:43:14.81 - 02:43:16.77]

and you can't do that now.

[02:43:16.81 - 02:43:19.03]

So how do you bootstrap one side of the marketplace

[02:43:19.03 - 02:43:21.41]

when you can't do something like a drop?

[02:43:21.85 - 02:43:22.89]

And they were in a unique position

[02:43:22.89 - 02:43:24.77]

at that moment in time in California,

[02:43:25.03 - 02:43:27.13]

where they had such large market share

[02:43:27.13 - 02:43:29.07]

of both consumers and merchants

[02:43:29.07 - 02:43:31.43]

that they could kind of effectively

[02:43:31.43 - 02:43:32.99]

create this network themselves.

[02:43:33.49 - 02:43:36.49]

Right. So what you're basically relying on now

[02:43:36.49 - 02:43:40.93]

is some sort of extrinsic paradigm shift,

[02:43:41.19 - 02:43:42.97]

probably a technology paradigm shift,

[02:43:43.03 - 02:43:44.75]

that enables a new entrant

[02:43:44.75 - 02:43:46.95]

to bootstrap one side of the marketplace

[02:43:46.95 - 02:43:48.23]

in one way or the other

[02:43:48.23 - 02:43:50.11]

to create a new system.

[02:43:50.61 - 02:43:53.93]

And without a new paradigm emerging,

[02:43:54.47 - 02:43:55.53]

this is the system.

[02:43:55.81 - 02:43:56.79]

I'd say a new paradigm

[02:43:56.79 - 02:43:58.75]

or the government intervention,

[02:43:58.99 - 02:44:00.07]

this kind of is the system

[02:44:00.07 - 02:44:01.09]

that we've made our bed

[02:44:01.09 - 02:44:01.97]

and we're stuck with,

[02:44:02.29 - 02:44:03.29]

for good and for bad.

[02:44:03.71 - 02:44:05.67]

Yep. I mean, I love my rewards cards.

[02:44:06.09 - 02:44:08.97]

Right. And look at all of the economic value

[02:44:08.97 - 02:44:11.23]

that it created by enabling e-commerce.

[02:44:11.65 - 02:44:13.19]

It is truly astonishing

[02:44:13.19 - 02:44:15.49]

that without UPS to ship packages

[02:44:15.49 - 02:44:17.21]

and without credit cards

[02:44:17.21 - 02:44:18.53]

to let us pay for things on the internet,

[02:44:18.63 - 02:44:19.83]

like it just wouldn't have happened.

[02:44:19.99 - 02:44:21.25]

It's trillions of dollars

[02:44:21.25 - 02:44:22.79]

of transactions in the economy

[02:44:22.79 - 02:44:23.79]

that would not exist.

[02:44:24.55 - 02:44:26.69]

So the arguments to merchants are,

[02:44:27.17 - 02:44:28.53]

look, people spend more

[02:44:28.53 - 02:44:29.49]

when they use a card.

[02:44:29.75 - 02:44:32.13]

There's a broader range of buyers

[02:44:32.13 - 02:44:33.07]

that use a card.

[02:44:33.91 - 02:44:36.03]

Very cool feature of these credit card

[02:44:36.03 - 02:44:36.91]

and debit cards

[02:44:36.91 - 02:44:39.21]

is there's guaranteed payment with no risk.

[02:44:39.63 - 02:44:40.79]

There's instant authorization

[02:44:41.45 - 02:44:43.47]

for this consumer wants this thing.

[02:44:43.81 - 02:44:45.31]

Now they could return it,

[02:44:45.51 - 02:44:46.83]

but you know for sure

[02:44:46.83 - 02:44:47.77]

that they're good for the money

[02:44:47.77 - 02:44:49.85]

and you're going to get the money very soon

[02:44:49.85 - 02:44:51.17]

when they walk out the door,

[02:44:51.29 - 02:44:53.11]

which that wouldn't happen in checks.

[02:44:53.47 - 02:44:55.23]

There's a cost to checks.

[02:44:55.69 - 02:44:56.87]

Right. If you're going to accept a check

[02:44:56.87 - 02:44:57.51]

from somebody,

[02:44:57.69 - 02:45:00.17]

there's a strong element of trust

[02:45:00.17 - 02:45:01.17]

that you have to have

[02:45:01.17 - 02:45:03.09]

with that individual or entity.

[02:45:03.79 - 02:45:04.85]

Yep. And if you're saying

[02:45:04.85 - 02:45:06.27]

you better come in here bearing cash

[02:45:06.27 - 02:45:07.33]

or a cashier's check,

[02:45:07.45 - 02:45:08.83]

you're gonna have way fewer customers.

[02:45:09.05 - 02:45:09.97]

Not to mention, like,

[02:45:10.03 - 02:45:12.31]

there's totally a cost of facilitating cash.

[02:45:12.81 - 02:45:14.37]

You know, it's one thing for a coffee shop,

[02:45:14.37 - 02:45:17.25]

but let's say you run a running shoe store

[02:45:17.25 - 02:45:19.31]

and everything you sell is $150 to $250.

[02:45:20.07 - 02:45:21.81]

There's a pretty meaningful amount of cash

[02:45:21.81 - 02:45:23.33]

that piles up in your establishment.

[02:45:23.83 - 02:45:25.11]

And so you need to make sure

[02:45:25.11 - 02:45:26.59]

that you have security

[02:45:26.59 - 02:45:27.37]

or like, you know,

[02:45:27.41 - 02:45:29.11]

let's pick an even higher ticket item thing,

[02:45:29.19 - 02:45:29.95]

like a jewelry store.

[02:45:30.09 - 02:45:31.27]

You need security.

[02:45:31.55 - 02:45:34.11]

You need to move that cash somewhere.

[02:45:34.31 - 02:45:35.41]

You need to, like, make time

[02:45:35.41 - 02:45:36.73]

to go to the bank to deposit it.

[02:45:37.05 - 02:45:38.19]

Totally. The operational overhead

[02:45:38.19 - 02:45:39.35]

associated with that.

[02:45:39.67 - 02:45:41.45]

There is a value to providing payment

[02:45:41.45 - 02:45:42.69]

and there is a cost

[02:45:42.69 - 02:45:45.17]

to whatever the payment method is.

[02:45:45.57 - 02:45:48.01]

And so am I saying that the cost is 3%

[02:45:48.01 - 02:45:50.69]

or in the old days, 5% or 7%?

[02:45:51.03 - 02:45:52.09]

No, absolutely not.

[02:45:52.19 - 02:45:54.81]

But there certainly is some cost

[02:45:54.81 - 02:45:56.61]

no matter what form of payment is used.

[02:45:57.11 - 02:45:57.33]

Absolutely.

[02:45:58.09 - 02:46:00.13]

So the business today,

[02:46:00.67 - 02:46:02.87]

what does Visa look like?

[02:46:03.59 - 02:46:04.27]

Well, last year,

[02:46:04.35 - 02:46:08.03]

Visa processed $14 trillion of volume

[02:46:08.03 - 02:46:08.91]

through their network,

[02:46:09.05 - 02:46:11.61]

which is an almost meaninglessly large number.

[02:46:11.61 - 02:46:13.23]

How do you even think about that?

[02:46:13.77 - 02:46:14.83]

One fun way to think about that

[02:46:14.83 - 02:46:15.61]

that I calculated

[02:46:15.61 - 02:46:18.11]

is if you start from 1971,

[02:46:18.47 - 02:46:19.85]

the first full year

[02:46:19.85 - 02:46:21.75]

that the Bank of America hard network

[02:46:21.75 - 02:46:24.23]

was liberated from Bank of America,

[02:46:24.53 - 02:46:27.65]

the growth in payment volume

[02:46:27.65 - 02:46:29.09]

on the network since then

[02:46:29.09 - 02:46:34.33]

has been 17.3% compounded annually

[02:46:35.05 - 02:46:37.29]

for 51 years.

[02:46:37.45 - 02:46:38.69]

Oh my God.

[02:46:38.91 - 02:46:39.29]

Wild.

[02:46:39.81 - 02:46:41.09]

It turns out the world

[02:46:41.09 - 02:46:42.31]

eventually did want to pay

[02:46:43.13 - 02:46:44.63]

with frictionless, fast,

[02:46:45.25 - 02:46:47.23]

and often credit extending methods.

[02:46:48.61 - 02:46:52.03]

Wow. 17% compounded for 51 years.

[02:46:52.25 - 02:46:54.61]

Yeah. I mean, this is like Berkshire levels

[02:46:54.61 - 02:46:56.53]

of compounding that is happening here.

[02:46:57.07 - 02:46:57.45]

Yep.

[02:46:57.91 - 02:46:58.95]

And it's not like, you know,

[02:46:58.95 - 02:47:00.15]

people may think, oh, 17%,

[02:47:00.15 - 02:47:02.79]

like, oh, I have seen IRRs greater than that.

[02:47:02.91 - 02:47:04.15]

Have you seen them greater than that

[02:47:04.15 - 02:47:06.21]

over 51 years?

[02:47:06.51 - 02:47:06.81]

Right.

[02:47:07.27 - 02:47:08.03]

Not many of those.

[02:47:08.43 - 02:47:08.99]

It's amazing.

[02:47:08.99 - 02:47:11.19]

The number of transactions

[02:47:11.19 - 02:47:12.41]

they processed last year

[02:47:12.41 - 02:47:14.71]

was over 190 billion.

[02:47:15.19 - 02:47:17.21]

So that is 27 transactions

[02:47:17.21 - 02:47:19.01]

per person on earth,

[02:47:19.11 - 02:47:20.27]

including young children,

[02:47:20.53 - 02:47:21.43]

every single year.

[02:47:22.17 - 02:47:23.47]

Hey, man, young children

[02:47:23.47 - 02:47:25.25]

require a lot of commerce.

[02:47:25.39 - 02:47:26.13]

Let me tell you.

[02:47:26.21 - 02:47:26.73]

So I hear.

[02:47:27.35 - 02:47:30.05]

There are 4.1 billion visa cards

[02:47:30.05 - 02:47:30.75]

in circulation.

[02:47:31.45 - 02:47:35.11]

Their net revenue is $29 billion.

[02:47:35.11 - 02:47:36.17]

$29.

[02:47:37.77 - 02:47:40.01]

That's up from 22 billion

[02:47:40.01 - 02:47:40.89]

two years ago.

[02:47:41.41 - 02:47:43.51]

So there's an interesting thing

[02:47:43.51 - 02:47:45.41]

that I didn't really realize with Visa,

[02:47:45.69 - 02:47:48.49]

which is it's had a hell of a decade.

[02:47:49.01 - 02:47:49.13]

Yeah.

[02:47:49.41 - 02:47:51.01]

In my head, Visa has been

[02:47:51.01 - 02:47:52.63]

this steady state thing in the world,

[02:47:52.67 - 02:47:53.91]

as has MasterCard.

[02:47:54.09 - 02:47:56.03]

But the last decade has been

[02:47:56.55 - 02:47:59.57]

the story of Visa's incredible dominance

[02:47:59.57 - 02:48:01.99]

in revenue and transactions and volume.

[02:48:02.25 - 02:48:04.11]

It's just actually true

[02:48:04.11 - 02:48:04.97]

that a lot of their growth

[02:48:04.97 - 02:48:06.87]

has been recent in the last decade.

[02:48:07.21 - 02:48:09.11]

Their value added services,

[02:48:09.49 - 02:48:10.41]

this is an interesting thing

[02:48:10.41 - 02:48:11.47]

that I want to come back to,

[02:48:11.61 - 02:48:12.43]

was six billion.

[02:48:12.91 - 02:48:14.61]

So look at their overall revenue number

[02:48:14.61 - 02:48:15.49]

of 29 billion.

[02:48:15.95 - 02:48:17.53]

Their value added services

[02:48:17.53 - 02:48:18.25]

is six billion.

[02:48:18.41 - 02:48:19.29]

We'll talk about what that means.

[02:48:19.95 - 02:48:22.31]

The most shocking thing

[02:48:22.31 - 02:48:23.27]

about the business is

[02:48:24.19 - 02:48:27.43]

they have 50% net income margins.

[02:48:27.99 - 02:48:29.83]

So of the 30-ish billion

[02:48:29.83 - 02:48:30.83]

that they made in revenue,

[02:48:31.35 - 02:48:33.43]

their net income was 15.

[02:48:33.43 - 02:48:34.05]

Yeah.

[02:48:34.47 - 02:48:35.99]

This is absurd.

[02:48:36.31 - 02:48:37.45]

All the picture we painted

[02:48:37.45 - 02:48:38.39]

in the whole story,

[02:48:38.59 - 02:48:40.77]

it was all building toward that climax

[02:48:40.77 - 02:48:44.07]

of they have created something

[02:48:44.07 - 02:48:46.87]

with essentially zero marginal costs

[02:48:47.51 - 02:48:51.85]

in perhaps the largest market out there,

[02:48:51.97 - 02:48:52.93]

certainly one of them,

[02:48:53.19 - 02:48:53.95]

global commerce,

[02:48:54.55 - 02:48:56.81]

both e- and non-e-commerce.

[02:48:57.45 - 02:48:58.45]

And as Visa would argue,

[02:48:58.63 - 02:49:01.13]

both consumer but also B2B commerce.

[02:49:01.69 - 02:49:01.99]

Yeah.

[02:49:02.59 - 02:49:04.11]

50% net income margins

[02:49:04.11 - 02:49:05.39]

on 30 billion in revenue.

[02:49:06.03 - 02:49:06.55]

There it is.

[02:49:06.89 - 02:49:07.63]

And you might say,

[02:49:07.77 - 02:49:08.79]

so wait,

[02:49:08.89 - 02:49:10.71]

if they have 50% net income margins,

[02:49:10.99 - 02:49:12.07]

what is their gross margin?

[02:49:12.29 - 02:49:14.23]

Because is it SAS level good

[02:49:14.23 - 02:49:16.21]

at 75, 85%?

[02:49:16.35 - 02:49:16.57]

Nope.

[02:49:16.75 - 02:49:19.21]

Their gross margins are 98%.

[02:49:19.93 - 02:49:20.43]

Unreal.

[02:49:20.93 - 02:49:22.71]

There are no variable costs

[02:49:22.71 - 02:49:23.47]

in this business.

[02:49:23.81 - 02:49:25.31]

There are no costs of goods sold.

[02:49:25.91 - 02:49:26.27]

Unreal.

[02:49:26.93 - 02:49:27.99]

It's crazy.

[02:49:28.33 - 02:49:29.65]

So I think

[02:49:29.65 - 02:49:31.55]

with 50% net income margins,

[02:49:31.89 - 02:49:34.13]

this is literally the most profitable

[02:49:34.13 - 02:49:35.77]

large-scale company in the world.

[02:49:36.31 - 02:49:37.95]

I don't know of any other businesses

[02:49:37.95 - 02:49:39.65]

of this size

[02:49:39.65 - 02:49:41.77]

or even like five or 10 times smaller

[02:49:41.77 - 02:49:45.65]

that have over a 50% net income margin,

[02:49:45.77 - 02:49:46.79]

including MasterCard,

[02:49:47.25 - 02:49:48.13]

which is 43%.

[02:49:48.69 - 02:49:50.13]

And just to throw some numbers out

[02:49:50.13 - 02:49:51.29]

for people that are like not,

[02:49:51.53 - 02:49:52.71]

you know, looking at financial statements

[02:49:52.71 - 02:49:53.05]

all the time,

[02:49:53.43 - 02:49:55.87]

Microsoft, 34% net income margins.

[02:49:56.51 - 02:49:57.53]

Microsoft sells software.

[02:49:57.87 - 02:49:58.73]

They ship bits.

[02:50:00.05 - 02:50:01.09]

Apple, 25%.

[02:50:01.09 - 02:50:04.91]

They have an incredibly marked up product

[02:50:04.91 - 02:50:07.09]

that is differentiated wildly by brand.

[02:50:07.31 - 02:50:08.71]

25% net income margins.

[02:50:08.87 - 02:50:09.17]

Google.

[02:50:09.93 - 02:50:11.53]

Google has a monopoly

[02:50:11.53 - 02:50:13.49]

in a market of information.

[02:50:13.89 - 02:50:15.41]

What are the costs involved in that business?

[02:50:15.51 - 02:50:17.07]

21% net income margins.

[02:50:17.45 - 02:50:18.75]

I would have thought Google would be higher.

[02:50:19.19 - 02:50:21.07]

As we were talking in my mind,

[02:50:21.07 - 02:50:21.95]

I was like,

[02:50:22.11 - 02:50:23.75]

well, Google is probably the only one

[02:50:23.75 - 02:50:24.63]

that can come close,

[02:50:24.81 - 02:50:25.37]

but wow,

[02:50:25.79 - 02:50:26.55]

Microsoft is higher.

[02:50:26.63 - 02:50:27.23]

I didn't realize that.

[02:50:27.23 - 02:50:28.57]

Yeah, it's nuts.

[02:50:28.75 - 02:50:29.15]

It's nuts.

[02:50:30.03 - 02:50:32.37]

They do have 27,000 employees.

[02:50:32.91 - 02:50:33.95]

In some ways,

[02:50:33.99 - 02:50:35.55]

it feels like an oddly large number

[02:50:35.55 - 02:50:36.51]

and in other ways,

[02:50:36.57 - 02:50:37.15]

it feels small.

[02:50:37.31 - 02:50:38.75]

But I think we should talk about that

[02:50:38.75 - 02:50:40.43]

in the context of the value-added services.

[02:50:41.21 - 02:50:41.63]

Interestingly,

[02:50:41.99 - 02:50:43.31]

there is another company

[02:50:43.31 - 02:50:44.91]

that we have talked about recently on Acquired

[02:50:44.91 - 02:50:47.13]

that does $30 billion in revenue

[02:50:47.13 - 02:50:48.83]

and has 27,000 employees.

[02:50:49.51 - 02:50:50.33]

Do you know what it is, David?

[02:50:50.43 - 02:50:51.27]

That would be NVIDIA.

[02:50:51.87 - 02:50:52.17]

Yeah.

[02:50:52.73 - 02:50:54.11]

It's a weirdly mirror image.

[02:50:54.41 - 02:50:56.69]

Even NVIDIA doesn't have gross margins like Visa.

[02:50:57.23 - 02:50:59.97]

It is the ultimate solution.

[02:51:00.33 - 02:51:01.71]

I think that is the takeaway.

[02:51:02.33 - 02:51:02.55]

Yes.

[02:51:03.35 - 02:51:07.83]

Visa does 707 million transactions per day.

[02:51:08.07 - 02:51:12.51]

That is 8,600 transactions per second

[02:51:12.51 - 02:51:14.61]

every second throughout the year.

[02:51:15.09 - 02:51:17.01]

So a big takeaway should be like,

[02:51:17.15 - 02:51:17.53]

my God,

[02:51:17.57 - 02:51:20.15]

they have built high-throughput infrastructure globally.

[02:51:20.49 - 02:51:22.11]

That's an unbelievably impressive thing.

[02:51:22.17 - 02:51:23.27]

With almost no downtime,

[02:51:23.53 - 02:51:26.81]

it is 99.999% uptime,

[02:51:26.81 - 02:51:29.65]

which I am not a site reliability engineer,

[02:51:29.75 - 02:51:31.45]

but I think that is five nines.

[02:51:32.21 - 02:51:32.63]

Which is wild.

[02:51:32.73 - 02:51:35.33]

I mean, you hear about AWS going down more frequently

[02:51:35.33 - 02:51:36.79]

than you hear about Visa going down.

[02:51:37.37 - 02:51:37.67]

Totally.

[02:51:38.21 - 02:51:41.97]

That's 16,000 banks in 200 countries.

[02:51:42.27 - 02:51:44.69]

They have six data centers distributed across the world.

[02:51:44.81 - 02:51:46.55]

It's kind of amazing it's only six,

[02:51:46.79 - 02:51:47.35]

to be honest,

[02:51:47.39 - 02:51:48.91]

with that kind of reliability and uptime.

[02:51:49.39 - 02:51:50.69]

You know, related to that, though,

[02:51:50.87 - 02:51:52.63]

you raised a good point earlier.

[02:51:53.33 - 02:51:55.43]

The data envelope,

[02:51:56.17 - 02:51:57.65]

as opposed to the value envelope,

[02:51:58.17 - 02:51:59.35]

although I guess it is sort of the same,

[02:51:59.55 - 02:52:00.81]

is also not that large

[02:52:00.81 - 02:52:04.09]

relative to the importance and the value.

[02:52:04.31 - 02:52:04.43]

Right.

[02:52:04.75 - 02:52:05.55]

This is not YouTube.

[02:52:05.75 - 02:52:05.97]

Yeah.

[02:52:06.17 - 02:52:08.21]

The transactions themselves,

[02:52:08.59 - 02:52:11.39]

in part because this was all architected in the 70s.

[02:52:11.43 - 02:52:11.65]

Right.

[02:52:11.75 - 02:52:12.79]

That is definitely why.

[02:52:13.05 - 02:52:13.25]

Yeah.

[02:52:13.77 - 02:52:15.75]

Lots of people in this ecosystem would love it

[02:52:15.75 - 02:52:17.59]

if you could send entire receipts

[02:52:17.59 - 02:52:19.79]

in machine-readable form across this network.

[02:52:19.99 - 02:52:20.59]

You can't.

[02:52:20.59 - 02:52:23.55]

We're stuck with a lowest common denominator protocol

[02:52:23.55 - 02:52:25.05]

that we're shipping

[02:52:25.05 - 02:52:27.43]

very crude pieces of information across.

[02:52:28.67 - 02:52:30.59]

I will say there are other people

[02:52:30.59 - 02:52:32.55]

that are participants in this ecosystem

[02:52:32.55 - 02:52:34.69]

that are perfectly fine with it

[02:52:34.69 - 02:52:36.91]

having almost no information

[02:52:36.91 - 02:52:38.79]

or minimal information going across it.

[02:52:38.89 - 02:52:41.07]

An example of which is the banks.

[02:52:41.25 - 02:52:43.35]

The banks don't want to be sharing

[02:52:43.35 - 02:52:44.59]

any of this information

[02:52:44.59 - 02:52:46.57]

that could put them at a strategic disadvantage.

[02:52:47.19 - 02:52:49.23]

Your bank knows your name,

[02:52:49.23 - 02:52:50.85]

knows your social security number,

[02:52:51.15 - 02:52:52.03]

knows your address.

[02:52:53.01 - 02:52:54.55]

Visa, I'm running transactions

[02:52:54.55 - 02:52:56.19]

across their network all the time.

[02:52:56.55 - 02:52:57.91]

All it knows is my card number.

[02:52:58.25 - 02:52:59.95]

It has no notion of identity.

[02:53:00.37 - 02:53:01.05]

Isn't that crazy?

[02:53:01.47 - 02:53:02.15]

I didn't realize that.

[02:53:02.23 - 02:53:02.97]

Yeah, that is crazy.

[02:53:03.43 - 02:53:04.77]

And the banks like that

[02:53:04.77 - 02:53:06.25]

because then the banks get to say,

[02:53:06.35 - 02:53:07.47]

no, no, no, this is my customer.

[02:53:07.85 - 02:53:09.33]

Visa, we will use your network

[02:53:09.33 - 02:53:10.81]

because it is the way

[02:53:10.81 - 02:53:12.81]

that I need to accomplish something for my customer.

[02:53:13.09 - 02:53:14.05]

But I'm not just going to like

[02:53:14.05 - 02:53:15.53]

turn my customer into your customer.

[02:53:15.67 - 02:53:16.37]

Why would I do that?

[02:53:16.77 - 02:53:17.73]

And one of the things

[02:53:17.73 - 02:53:18.89]

we didn't talk about in the story,

[02:53:18.89 - 02:53:20.53]

because it was long enough as is,

[02:53:20.87 - 02:53:22.25]

is the whole debit card struggle.

[02:53:22.57 - 02:53:24.39]

Obviously, debit cards are a big part

[02:53:24.39 - 02:53:25.25]

and debit transactions,

[02:53:25.35 - 02:53:26.85]

a big part of the Visa network today.

[02:53:27.27 - 02:53:29.77]

But when Visa first tried to introduce them,

[02:53:29.87 - 02:53:30.79]

this was one of the things

[02:53:30.79 - 02:53:32.43]

that led to D-Hawk's ouster.

[02:53:32.95 - 02:53:34.01]

The banks were like,

[02:53:34.31 - 02:53:35.49]

no, no, no, no, no.

[02:53:35.75 - 02:53:37.83]

Debit cards, that sounds like banking relationships.

[02:53:38.65 - 02:53:40.23]

Banking relationships are my domain.

[02:53:40.47 - 02:53:41.75]

That's where I make my money.

[02:53:41.87 - 02:53:42.85]

Those are my deposits.

[02:53:43.29 - 02:53:45.61]

You look like you're trying to reach your hand

[02:53:45.61 - 02:53:48.15]

across from being in service of us

[02:53:48.15 - 02:53:49.31]

into competing with us.

[02:53:50.31 - 02:53:51.75]

And obviously debit cards

[02:53:51.75 - 02:53:53.49]

did eventually become part of the system,

[02:53:53.49 - 02:53:55.03]

but not in the way that,

[02:53:55.07 - 02:53:56.51]

you know, it was looking like

[02:53:56.51 - 02:53:57.85]

D initially wanted them to.

[02:53:58.23 - 02:54:00.79]

It's pretty fascinating that debit came later.

[02:54:01.35 - 02:54:02.81]

Functionally to me as a consumer,

[02:54:03.15 - 02:54:05.11]

even though I get floated for a month,

[02:54:05.71 - 02:54:08.49]

my credit card is essentially a debit card

[02:54:08.49 - 02:54:10.57]

where if I want to,

[02:54:10.61 - 02:54:12.65]

I can turn it into a loan at the end of 30 days.

[02:54:12.77 - 02:54:14.91]

It's a debit card with a lot of benefits.

[02:54:15.37 - 02:54:15.71]

Right.

[02:54:16.27 - 02:54:18.19]

And obviously, like,

[02:54:18.57 - 02:54:20.05]

I get to keep the money for 30 more days.

[02:54:20.15 - 02:54:21.01]

So it's not quite the same thing,

[02:54:21.07 - 02:54:22.81]

but debit is a simpler product.

[02:54:22.93 - 02:54:24.49]

So it's so interesting

[02:54:24.49 - 02:54:26.41]

that debit came decades

[02:54:26.41 - 02:54:28.59]

after credit cards on the Visa network.

[02:54:28.91 - 02:54:30.81]

You would think they would have started with debit,

[02:54:30.89 - 02:54:32.39]

but of course they couldn't have started with debit.

[02:54:32.61 - 02:54:34.73]

The banks would never have gone for that.

[02:54:35.13 - 02:54:36.45]

Right. That was the domain of the banks.

[02:54:36.47 - 02:54:37.97]

And actually there was a big fight

[02:54:37.97 - 02:54:40.25]

between Visa and all the ATM networks.

[02:54:40.69 - 02:54:42.81]

And D wanted your Visa card

[02:54:42.81 - 02:54:44.17]

to also be your ATM card.

[02:54:44.21 - 02:54:45.07]

It makes sense, right?

[02:54:45.07 - 02:54:46.45]

Like, why would you have different cards?

[02:54:46.79 - 02:54:47.45]

Mine is today.

[02:54:47.59 - 02:54:48.85]

They basically are now.

[02:54:49.05 - 02:54:50.93]

But for many, many years, they weren't.

[02:54:51.23 - 02:54:52.99]

And they certainly weren't back in D's day.

[02:54:53.51 - 02:54:55.77]

Right. And I think part of the reason

[02:54:55.77 - 02:54:57.09]

why debit cards were sort of like

[02:54:57.09 - 02:54:58.07]

forced into existence

[02:54:58.07 - 02:55:00.27]

was that consumers basically demanded it,

[02:55:00.35 - 02:55:01.07]

where they were like,

[02:55:01.11 - 02:55:02.71]

look, if I can pay with a card

[02:55:03.31 - 02:55:04.83]

for this high value purchase,

[02:55:04.83 - 02:55:07.41]

and I don't want to use credit,

[02:55:08.03 - 02:55:09.01]

you're telling me that

[02:55:09.01 - 02:55:10.19]

if I don't want credit,

[02:55:10.25 - 02:55:11.77]

then I have to walk down the street,

[02:55:12.09 - 02:55:13.45]

withdraw cash from my bank,

[02:55:13.45 - 02:55:14.51]

and bring the cash?

[02:55:14.51 - 02:55:16.75]

Is there not something like a credit card

[02:55:16.75 - 02:55:17.97]

but doesn't extend me alone?

[02:55:18.59 - 02:55:20.55]

So in closing on the numbers today,

[02:55:20.93 - 02:55:22.85]

this is the important number to know,

[02:55:23.01 - 02:55:24.35]

and one that may make you uncomfortable.

[02:55:24.63 - 02:55:26.55]

But I'm curious how this lands for you, David.

[02:55:27.15 - 02:55:30.53]

U.S. merchants paid an estimated $93 billion

[02:55:30.53 - 02:55:33.89]

in Visa and MasterCard credit card fees last year,

[02:55:34.05 - 02:55:35.27]

according to the Nielsen Report

[02:55:35.27 - 02:55:36.27]

and industry publication.

[02:55:36.67 - 02:55:41.11]

That $93 billion was up from $33 billion in 2012.

[02:55:42.63 - 02:55:45.29]

Wow, that's a lot more billions.

[02:55:45.77 - 02:55:46.93]

That's a lot more billions.

[02:55:47.41 - 02:55:50.85]

So we've talked a lot here about the interchange

[02:55:51.45 - 02:55:53.95]

and how Visa makes money in the transaction.

[02:55:54.21 - 02:55:56.21]

I will say half of Americans

[02:55:56.21 - 02:55:57.79]

carry a credit card balance,

[02:55:57.97 - 02:55:59.89]

which is absolutely brutal

[02:55:59.89 - 02:56:01.87]

since those interest rates right now

[02:56:01.87 - 02:56:02.79]

are around 22%.

[02:56:04.13 - 02:56:06.41]

David, you and I learned in doing some research

[02:56:06.41 - 02:56:08.55]

that the reason why we all get these credit cards

[02:56:08.55 - 02:56:09.45]

from North Dakota

[02:56:09.45 - 02:56:13.73]

is because every state used to have anti-usury laws,

[02:56:13.87 - 02:56:15.75]

like no one was allowed to make you serious loans,

[02:56:16.09 - 02:56:18.05]

and North Dakota was the first to drop them.

[02:56:18.59 - 02:56:20.33]

And that's why all the banks

[02:56:20.33 - 02:56:22.79]

issued all their card programs out of North Dakota

[02:56:22.79 - 02:56:24.83]

because you could do things

[02:56:24.83 - 02:56:27.53]

like have 22% loans made to consumers

[02:56:27.53 - 02:56:29.87]

and have that be entirely fine.

[02:56:30.09 - 02:56:31.39]

So that's the sad history

[02:56:31.39 - 02:56:33.29]

of why your credit cards always get mailed from there.

[02:56:33.77 - 02:56:36.65]

And there's no denying that is really sad

[02:56:36.65 - 02:56:40.85]

and unfortunate on the consumer debt side of all this.

[02:56:41.37 - 02:56:43.07]

You know, on the fee side,

[02:56:43.71 - 02:56:45.59]

on the one hand, I'm tempted to say like,

[02:56:45.91 - 02:56:48.01]

oh, obviously tripling the amount of fees

[02:56:48.01 - 02:56:49.21]

that merchants are paying

[02:56:49.21 - 02:56:51.63]

for credit card processing over 10 years,

[02:56:51.75 - 02:56:52.51]

like that's ridiculous.

[02:56:52.97 - 02:56:54.93]

But transaction value has meaningfully gone up too,

[02:56:55.05 - 02:56:56.23]

like gross volume is way up.

[02:56:56.59 - 02:56:57.91]

Yes, transaction value.

[02:56:58.19 - 02:57:00.93]

But also I have to imagine a big part of that

[02:57:00.93 - 02:57:02.79]

is share of commerce that's happening

[02:57:02.79 - 02:57:05.01]

as e-commerce versus traditional commerce.

[02:57:05.01 - 02:57:09.07]

The credit card networks really are providing

[02:57:09.07 - 02:57:11.95]

a huge amount of value to e-commerce,

[02:57:12.29 - 02:57:13.67]

as you were saying earlier,

[02:57:13.91 - 02:57:15.61]

they are to physical commerce too.

[02:57:15.71 - 02:57:18.05]

Nobody wants to pay with cash or check anymore these days.

[02:57:18.43 - 02:57:19.53]

But like e-commerce,

[02:57:19.71 - 02:57:21.57]

there's no other way that that can happen.

[02:57:21.67 - 02:57:24.23]

So does it make sense that the credit card networks

[02:57:24.23 - 02:57:26.39]

and their associated parties

[02:57:26.39 - 02:57:29.47]

take more value in that world?

[02:57:29.57 - 02:57:30.19]

I think so.

[02:57:30.83 - 02:57:32.47]

Yeah, there's been downward pressure

[02:57:32.47 - 02:57:34.05]

on interchange for a long time.

[02:57:34.05 - 02:57:37.09]

I think industry average right now is down around 2.24,

[02:57:37.31 - 02:57:40.21]

which is compelling considering we started at 7%.

[02:57:40.75 - 02:57:41.05]

Right.

[02:57:41.65 - 02:57:46.53]

That downward pressure has been easy to give on by Visa

[02:57:47.17 - 02:57:50.71]

for things like in-person transactions with card present.

[02:57:51.33 - 02:57:53.63]

But for a lot of their super high margin

[02:57:53.63 - 02:57:55.99]

online transactions where the growth is,

[02:57:56.33 - 02:57:57.37]

that's where they decide,

[02:57:57.53 - 02:58:00.91]

oh, actually we have a really high interchange for that area.

[02:58:01.03 - 02:58:02.83]

So Visa is sort of a master of packaging,

[02:58:02.83 - 02:58:06.87]

figuring out how can we take some things

[02:58:06.87 - 02:58:09.15]

and sort of make them more affordable to our merchants

[02:58:09.15 - 02:58:10.19]

or give them away for free,

[02:58:10.49 - 02:58:14.05]

while also figuring out how can we sort of move things around

[02:58:14.05 - 02:58:16.33]

or invent new products that are super high margin

[02:58:16.33 - 02:58:18.35]

that give us a lot of room to run in the future.

[02:58:19.09 - 02:58:19.97]

Yep. And it makes sense.

[02:58:20.07 - 02:58:21.45]

Just do the thought exercise, right?

[02:58:21.87 - 02:58:22.93]

Let's say you're a physical merchant

[02:58:22.93 - 02:58:25.99]

and you decide to walk away from Visa

[02:58:25.99 - 02:58:28.05]

and all the credit card networks,

[02:58:28.23 - 02:58:29.73]

say your only cash or check.

[02:58:30.27 - 02:58:32.75]

I mean, you probably are committing suicide as a business,

[02:58:32.75 - 02:58:34.81]

but you could operate.

[02:58:34.91 - 02:58:36.61]

If you're providing enough value,

[02:58:37.13 - 02:58:40.95]

like ATMs exist, you can operate.

[02:58:41.51 - 02:58:42.79]

There's plenty of cash only bars.

[02:58:43.13 - 02:58:43.87]

Yeah, exactly.

[02:58:44.25 - 02:58:45.21]

Bars, great example.

[02:58:45.73 - 02:58:47.71]

If you're on the internet and you say,

[02:58:47.85 - 02:58:50.05]

I'm walking away from the credit card companies,

[02:58:50.11 - 02:58:51.57]

you are literally committing suicide.

[02:58:51.99 - 02:58:52.37]

Right.

[02:58:52.63 - 02:58:54.71]

I mean, you could use PayPal, I guess.

[02:58:55.19 - 02:58:56.71]

But you're paying just as much for that.

[02:58:56.81 - 02:58:57.39]

Yeah, totally.

[02:58:57.97 - 02:58:59.43]

Unless you are literally getting people

[02:58:59.43 - 02:59:01.33]

to type in their account and routing numbers,

[02:59:01.33 - 02:59:03.63]

you are paying credit card-like fees

[02:59:03.63 - 02:59:04.81]

to accept payments on the internet.

[02:59:06.13 - 02:59:06.99]

It's worth sharing.

[02:59:07.15 - 02:59:09.11]

So while we're in the revenue streams here,

[02:59:10.25 - 02:59:14.69]

the money that card issuers make,

[02:59:15.23 - 02:59:18.27]

only a minority of it is actually from the interchange.

[02:59:18.45 - 02:59:20.53]

And keep in mind, the card issuers are the ones

[02:59:20.53 - 02:59:24.33]

that make that 1.6%, the bulk of the transaction.

[02:59:24.67 - 02:59:26.75]

Most of the money that card issuers make

[02:59:26.75 - 02:59:28.63]

is from interest payments.

[02:59:28.93 - 02:59:29.07]

Right.

[02:59:29.31 - 02:59:30.03]

I mean, they're banks.

[02:59:30.03 - 02:59:31.41]

That's the thing, all the way back

[02:59:31.41 - 02:59:32.43]

to the beginning of the episode.

[02:59:32.57 - 02:59:34.57]

What was the motivation for Bank of America

[02:59:35.15 - 02:59:35.97]

in the early days?

[02:59:36.05 - 02:59:38.63]

It was turbocharge my banking operations.

[02:59:38.93 - 02:59:40.27]

What is your banking operation?

[02:59:40.71 - 02:59:43.31]

It's taking deposits, make loans with them,

[02:59:43.65 - 02:59:45.39]

make money on the interest rates on those loans.

[02:59:46.01 - 02:59:47.91]

Nothing has changed in the banking industry.

[02:59:48.85 - 02:59:48.91]

Totally.

[02:59:49.35 - 02:59:51.39]

Visas incentives are more transactions

[02:59:51.39 - 02:59:53.53]

because we want more 0.2%.

[02:59:53.53 - 02:59:57.17]

And the issuers incentives are carry a balance

[02:59:57.17 - 02:59:59.05]

because that's where we make most of our money.

[02:59:59.23 - 02:59:59.49]

Yes.

[02:59:59.49 - 03:00:02.13]

Because even though they're getting the lion's share

[03:00:02.13 - 03:00:04.13]

of the transaction fee, that's going all right

[03:00:04.13 - 03:00:05.99]

back to the consumer in the form of rewards.

[03:00:06.95 - 03:00:10.11]

And anti-fraud measures and other value-added services

[03:00:10.11 - 03:00:11.31]

that they have to buy from Visa.

[03:00:11.65 - 03:00:13.85]

Probably a good time to introduce that $6 billion

[03:00:13.85 - 03:00:15.85]

that Visa is doing in value-added services.

[03:00:16.17 - 03:00:19.21]

That is all brand new, high margin products

[03:00:19.21 - 03:00:21.89]

that they've sort of invented in the last 10 years or so

[03:00:21.89 - 03:00:23.77]

that they're trying to sell to merchants.

[03:00:23.99 - 03:00:24.57]

High margin product.

[03:00:24.71 - 03:00:26.71]

There's no higher margin product than the core product.

[03:00:27.07 - 03:00:27.31]

Right.

[03:00:27.49 - 03:00:29.19]

Brand new, also high margin products.

[03:00:30.53 - 03:00:32.71]

Merchants, banks, they're basically trying to sell

[03:00:33.27 - 03:00:37.27]

products to people in the ecosystem, anti-fraud, analytics.

[03:00:37.97 - 03:00:38.93]

And it's working very well.

[03:00:39.01 - 03:00:40.01]

They're making a lot of money on that.

[03:00:40.11 - 03:00:42.39]

And they view that as a high growth area in the future too.

[03:00:42.73 - 03:00:46.61]

But again, it's a little bit of like shifting things around

[03:00:46.61 - 03:00:47.53]

in the same picture.

[03:00:47.67 - 03:00:49.63]

Like, look, there's downward pressure on interchange.

[03:00:50.03 - 03:00:52.97]

And we can demonstrate to you that interchange is going down.

[03:00:53.11 - 03:00:55.37]

Oh, but we have this great product that is helpful

[03:00:55.37 - 03:00:57.93]

and basically necessary that you also should buy.

[03:00:57.93 - 03:00:59.67]

And there's a lot of that going on.

[03:01:00.79 - 03:01:01.59]

All right.

[03:01:01.69 - 03:01:04.93]

So that basically covers the high level stats

[03:01:04.93 - 03:01:07.19]

on the business today so that we can go into analysis.

[03:01:07.19 - 03:01:10.03]

And you can have a general shape of the business

[03:01:10.03 - 03:01:10.83]

we're talking about.

[03:01:10.97 - 03:01:13.71]

But you know, 11th largest company in the world,

[03:01:13.81 - 03:01:15.37]

valued at half a trillion dollars,

[03:01:15.61 - 03:01:17.03]

around $30 billion in revenue.

[03:01:17.03 - 03:01:18.97]

And they get to keep half of that at the end of the day.

[03:01:19.05 - 03:01:20.53]

And they take no financial risk.

[03:01:20.65 - 03:01:22.21]

And they are just moving information around.

[03:01:22.55 - 03:01:23.43]

Mind blowing.

[03:01:23.93 - 03:01:25.53]

They get to keep half of that after taxes

[03:01:25.53 - 03:01:26.53]

at the end of the day.

[03:01:26.83 - 03:01:27.75]

That's wild.

[03:01:27.75 - 03:01:29.49]

There's actual cash in the bank.

[03:01:29.89 - 03:01:30.63]

This is not EBITDA.

[03:01:30.73 - 03:01:31.67]

This is net income.

[03:01:32.31 - 03:01:32.71]

Crazy.

[03:01:33.67 - 03:01:34.09]

All right, David.

[03:01:34.43 - 03:01:34.75]

Power.

[03:01:35.03 - 03:01:35.77]

Does that sound good to you?

[03:01:35.91 - 03:01:36.91]

Oh, let's talk power.

[03:01:37.53 - 03:01:37.71]

All right.

[03:01:37.73 - 03:01:40.19]

So listeners, this is where we talk through

[03:01:40.19 - 03:01:43.19]

Hamilton Helmer's Seven Powers Framework,

[03:01:43.45 - 03:01:45.65]

which is trying to figure out what is it

[03:01:45.65 - 03:01:47.83]

about this particular business that enables it

[03:01:47.83 - 03:01:50.01]

to achieve persistent differential returns

[03:01:50.01 - 03:01:53.27]

and be more profitable than their closest competitor

[03:01:53.27 - 03:01:54.93]

and do so sustainably.

[03:01:55.31 - 03:01:56.71]

It's an interesting one here.

[03:01:56.71 - 03:01:59.15]

This is a lot like the Lockheed Martin episode,

[03:01:59.15 - 03:02:02.55]

where I'm actually not sure we can apply

[03:02:02.55 - 03:02:04.41]

the formal definition where we say,

[03:02:04.55 - 03:02:06.55]

what enables them to be more profitable

[03:02:06.55 - 03:02:08.43]

than MasterCard?

[03:02:08.61 - 03:02:10.57]

Because together, they're like this

[03:02:10.57 - 03:02:12.29]

government-enabled duopoly.

[03:02:12.59 - 03:02:14.47]

And the way that we did this in the Lockheed Martin episode

[03:02:14.47 - 03:02:17.15]

was we said, let's look at the five defense contractors

[03:02:17.15 - 03:02:19.59]

as one entity and say,

[03:02:19.91 - 03:02:23.13]

what enables the five of them collectively

[03:02:23.13 - 03:02:25.17]

to out-compete new entrants?

[03:02:25.17 - 03:02:27.45]

And I think that's the right thing to do here

[03:02:27.45 - 03:02:28.77]

with Visa and MasterCard, too.

[03:02:29.17 - 03:02:30.63]

At the end of the day, Visa and MasterCard

[03:02:30.63 - 03:02:32.83]

have basically no sustainable competitive advantage

[03:02:32.83 - 03:02:33.39]

over each other.

[03:02:33.51 - 03:02:35.25]

It's just operational excellence,

[03:02:35.81 - 03:02:38.85]

who's slightly more clever on the bets

[03:02:38.85 - 03:02:40.65]

they're willing to make for these value-added services

[03:02:40.65 - 03:02:42.13]

or next product lines.

[03:02:42.79 - 03:02:43.47]

So, yeah.

[03:02:43.83 - 03:02:46.59]

I think the one area where there is difference

[03:02:46.59 - 03:02:49.67]

between them, and it's probably less so today,

[03:02:49.81 - 03:02:52.97]

but was quite strong through the 90s and 2000s

[03:02:52.97 - 03:02:53.43]

was brand.

[03:02:53.43 - 03:02:56.95]

I do think Visa made a genius move

[03:02:56.95 - 03:02:59.41]

positioning against American Express,

[03:03:00.17 - 03:03:02.01]

going up-market in perception

[03:03:02.01 - 03:03:03.93]

and partnering with the Olympics.

[03:03:04.13 - 03:03:05.75]

It's funny, even though it's a commodity,

[03:03:06.05 - 03:03:07.39]

like them and MasterCard are a commodity,

[03:03:07.55 - 03:03:09.53]

they somehow position themselves as more premium.

[03:03:09.81 - 03:03:11.33]

Well, sugar water is a commodity, too.

[03:03:11.49 - 03:03:13.27]

That's why brand matters in these markets.

[03:03:13.79 - 03:03:15.01]

But you're literally never making,

[03:03:15.11 - 03:03:16.03]

I guess it's for the banks,

[03:03:16.19 - 03:03:18.29]

because consumers are never making a buying decision

[03:03:18.29 - 03:03:20.61]

on whether it's Visa or MasterCard.

[03:03:20.67 - 03:03:22.41]

That is not how you decide what card to get.

[03:03:22.41 - 03:03:25.45]

Well, the brand is like the Intel inside.

[03:03:25.57 - 03:03:26.49]

It's an ingredient brand.

[03:03:26.59 - 03:03:28.53]

So, yes, the banks make the decision,

[03:03:28.69 - 03:03:30.35]

but really the consumers make the decision

[03:03:30.35 - 03:03:32.51]

because if consumers have a preference

[03:03:32.51 - 03:03:33.59]

for Visa over MasterCard,

[03:03:33.67 - 03:03:34.61]

they'll demand it from the banks.

[03:03:35.07 - 03:03:37.57]

No, they're just not differentiated enough

[03:03:37.57 - 03:03:38.17]

to demand it.

[03:03:38.27 - 03:03:41.01]

I just so don't see that any consumer ever

[03:03:41.01 - 03:03:42.15]

has sway there.

[03:03:42.47 - 03:03:45.63]

I got the Chase Sapphire Reserve card five years ago

[03:03:45.63 - 03:03:48.15]

because it was by far the best rewards card

[03:03:48.15 - 03:03:49.95]

for the type of thing that I spend money on,

[03:03:50.05 - 03:03:51.45]

as probably with half of our audience.

[03:03:51.45 - 03:03:53.73]

And I think it's a Visa Infinite,

[03:03:54.01 - 03:03:56.09]

which I'm sure is one of their high fee things,

[03:03:56.27 - 03:03:57.71]

which is why they can pass on so many rewards.

[03:03:58.19 - 03:03:59.39]

I think today that's true,

[03:03:59.49 - 03:04:02.49]

but I do think based on the research

[03:04:02.49 - 03:04:04.83]

and I was maybe too biased towards Visa,

[03:04:05.01 - 03:04:07.91]

but I think Visa did accelerate past MasterCard.

[03:04:08.03 - 03:04:10.55]

And I think there was a strong brand element of that.

[03:04:11.01 - 03:04:12.01]

I think it's more equal today.

[03:04:12.67 - 03:04:13.45]

Yeah, it's interesting.

[03:04:13.83 - 03:04:15.65]

It's funny how it used to feel more like

[03:04:15.65 - 03:04:16.85]

you were getting a Visa card

[03:04:16.85 - 03:04:18.85]

that was somehow like powered by a bank.

[03:04:19.27 - 03:04:20.55]

And now it feels more like

[03:04:20.55 - 03:04:23.75]

you are getting a custom proprietary product

[03:04:23.75 - 03:04:25.43]

that a bank invented for you

[03:04:25.43 - 03:04:28.07]

that happens to either say Visa or MasterCard on it.

[03:04:28.69 - 03:04:30.21]

Yes, totally agree.

[03:04:30.71 - 03:04:31.21]

Or a merchant.

[03:04:31.39 - 03:04:32.79]

I mean, when you have the Alaska card,

[03:04:33.07 - 03:04:34.61]

you feel like you have the Alaska card.

[03:04:34.75 - 03:04:36.27]

You're like, sorry, there's a bank behind this.

[03:04:36.31 - 03:04:37.57]

And like, oh, is it Visa or MasterCard?

[03:04:37.65 - 03:04:37.93]

I don't know.

[03:04:37.97 - 03:04:38.33]

I don't care.

[03:04:38.37 - 03:04:39.19]

It's the Alaska card.

[03:04:39.61 - 03:04:39.79]

Yep.

[03:04:40.31 - 03:04:42.01]

I think there's totally also a story

[03:04:42.45 - 03:04:44.09]

that's beyond the scope of this episode,

[03:04:44.09 - 03:04:47.79]

but how banks and in particular Chase,

[03:04:47.79 - 03:04:50.79]

ate American Express's customer base

[03:04:50.79 - 03:04:52.71]

over the last set of years.

[03:04:53.83 - 03:04:54.97]

Yeah, I mean, in part,

[03:04:55.09 - 03:04:56.99]

that's just bad strategy on Amex's part

[03:04:56.99 - 03:04:59.81]

that eventually it was going to happen

[03:04:59.81 - 03:05:01.57]

that they would not be the scale player.

[03:05:02.05 - 03:05:03.27]

Being a closed loop network,

[03:05:03.35 - 03:05:05.01]

you're just going to be a more niche player.

[03:05:05.51 - 03:05:08.25]

And so how do you win as a niche player?

[03:05:08.67 - 03:05:11.13]

You need to retain your highest value customers

[03:05:11.13 - 03:05:12.35]

and your highest margin customers.

[03:05:12.57 - 03:05:14.45]

Well, they missed the generational transfer.

[03:05:14.79 - 03:05:16.59]

I think they did retain their highest value,

[03:05:16.67 - 03:05:17.57]

highest margin customers.

[03:05:17.57 - 03:05:19.61]

I think those customers are just 80 years old now.

[03:05:20.37 - 03:05:20.71]

Yeah, it's true.

[03:05:20.87 - 03:05:22.97]

I think there are less affluent people in our generation

[03:05:22.97 - 03:05:25.93]

who have Amex's versus the premium products

[03:05:25.93 - 03:05:27.33]

from banks or merchants.

[03:05:27.69 - 03:05:27.83]

Yep.

[03:05:28.57 - 03:05:29.05]

Okay.

[03:05:29.23 - 03:05:31.05]

So Visa and MasterCard together,

[03:05:31.73 - 03:05:34.37]

which of the seven powers do they have today?

[03:05:34.65 - 03:05:36.21]

And if you want to also do the analysis,

[03:05:36.49 - 03:05:38.37]

which did they have early days?

[03:05:38.75 - 03:05:39.59]

And I will start,

[03:05:39.71 - 03:05:41.89]

I think there's an easy no brainer

[03:05:41.89 - 03:05:44.47]

that you have scale economies.

[03:05:45.11 - 03:05:48.89]

Any investment that Visa or MasterCard make

[03:05:48.89 - 03:05:52.49]

get amortized across 16,000 member banks,

[03:05:52.95 - 03:05:54.45]

across 4 billion cards,

[03:05:54.75 - 03:05:56.53]

across half the humans on the planet

[03:05:56.53 - 03:05:57.49]

or whatever it is.

[03:05:57.81 - 03:05:59.41]

I mean, just good luck competing

[03:05:59.41 - 03:06:01.35]

with any fixed cost investment

[03:06:01.35 - 03:06:02.67]

that Visa is going to make.

[03:06:02.97 - 03:06:05.35]

It'll pay back instantly if it works

[03:06:05.35 - 03:06:06.69]

to the extent that they can roll it out

[03:06:06.69 - 03:06:09.33]

to any tiny fraction of their customer base.

[03:06:09.59 - 03:06:12.67]

It's just so huge that it fits the scale economies thing

[03:06:12.67 - 03:06:15.57]

where if Netflix goes and buys a piece of content,

[03:06:15.67 - 03:06:16.55]

they can pay more for it

[03:06:16.55 - 03:06:17.69]

because they can show it to more people.

[03:06:18.17 - 03:06:19.55]

Visa is the exact same thing

[03:06:19.55 - 03:06:21.79]

with all of their fixed R&D costs.

[03:06:22.57 - 03:06:24.09]

Tell me if you think otherwise on this.

[03:06:24.39 - 03:06:28.43]

I think there's basically like a law of economic nature

[03:06:29.07 - 03:06:33.19]

that if your gross margins exceed,

[03:06:33.49 - 03:06:36.11]

call it 75, 80%,

[03:06:36.75 - 03:06:40.59]

and you are of a certain revenue scale threshold,

[03:06:41.33 - 03:06:44.11]

our gross margins exceed 75, 80%,

[03:06:44.11 - 03:06:45.41]

but we're a two-person company

[03:06:45.41 - 03:06:47.45]

with a de minimis amount of revenue

[03:06:47.45 - 03:06:48.31]

in the global economy.

[03:06:48.73 - 03:06:50.91]

But say you're in the billions of dollars of revenue scale,

[03:06:51.57 - 03:06:53.81]

you must have scale economy power.

[03:06:54.67 - 03:06:56.43]

Right. It's almost stupid to say this one

[03:06:56.43 - 03:06:57.37]

because it's like, okay, yeah,

[03:06:57.43 - 03:06:59.37]

but that's actually not what gives the business,

[03:06:59.57 - 03:07:01.07]

that's not what's so special about it.

[03:07:01.17 - 03:07:03.25]

The network economies are what's so special about it.

[03:07:03.35 - 03:07:04.33]

Yes, of course, of course.

[03:07:04.83 - 03:07:05.11]

Yeah.

[03:07:05.43 - 03:07:07.15]

But yeah, you must, you simply must

[03:07:07.15 - 03:07:09.29]

if you have those margins at that revenue scale

[03:07:09.29 - 03:07:10.47]

have scale economies.

[03:07:11.15 - 03:07:12.15]

Right. That's a great point.

[03:07:12.73 - 03:07:15.13]

Okay. Explain to us the network economies.

[03:07:15.97 - 03:07:17.57]

Well, I mean, this is even better

[03:07:17.57 - 03:07:19.15]

than the classic two-sided network.

[03:07:19.25 - 03:07:21.79]

This is the classic five-sided network effect.

[03:07:21.93 - 03:07:24.31]

Where you have an amplifier on each side

[03:07:24.31 - 03:07:26.39]

because you have the banks going

[03:07:26.39 - 03:07:27.85]

and using all of their scale

[03:07:27.85 - 03:07:29.85]

to amplify your own go-to-market motion.

[03:07:30.07 - 03:07:31.93]

Yep. I think this is also true.

[03:07:32.45 - 03:07:35.49]

With network economies and network power,

[03:07:35.49 - 03:07:38.95]

the more participants in a network,

[03:07:39.17 - 03:07:40.85]

the greater complexity grows

[03:07:40.85 - 03:07:43.39]

and the harder it is to actually pull off the network.

[03:07:43.85 - 03:07:46.09]

There's plenty of single-sided networks,

[03:07:46.19 - 03:07:48.31]

like Facebook is a single-sided network,

[03:07:48.47 - 03:07:49.75]

at least on the user-based side.

[03:07:49.83 - 03:07:52.41]

There's advertisers, you could argue that's a second side,

[03:07:52.53 - 03:07:54.47]

but everybody's the same node in the network.

[03:07:54.93 - 03:07:56.27]

Then there's two-sided networks,

[03:07:56.49 - 03:07:57.89]

like Airbnb is the classic one,

[03:07:57.97 - 03:07:58.79]

you know, something like that.

[03:07:59.11 - 03:08:01.19]

There are three-sided networks out there,

[03:08:01.31 - 03:08:02.29]

probably some four,

[03:08:02.33 - 03:08:04.51]

and clearly this is an example of a five-sided network.

[03:08:04.51 - 03:08:06.69]

But as you add sides to the network,

[03:08:06.75 - 03:08:08.63]

the number of successful examples

[03:08:08.63 - 03:08:10.51]

goes like way, way, way, way, way down

[03:08:10.51 - 03:08:12.13]

because it's just so hard.

[03:08:12.41 - 03:08:13.85]

Right. Because they're way harder to pull off,

[03:08:13.97 - 03:08:15.59]

but they're so locked in once they're in.

[03:08:15.81 - 03:08:18.43]

Yes. And I think this whole story that we told

[03:08:18.43 - 03:08:21.99]

of how incredibly freaking hard and unlikely it was

[03:08:21.99 - 03:08:22.77]

that this happened

[03:08:23.93 - 03:08:26.85]

means that you have a five-sided network effect business

[03:08:26.85 - 03:08:28.99]

and it's basically unbreakable.

[03:08:30.27 - 03:08:32.43]

Yeah. Totally agree on network economies.

[03:08:32.43 - 03:08:34.43]

I don't think there's much process power.

[03:08:34.77 - 03:08:36.57]

I don't think there's really any switching costs.

[03:08:36.75 - 03:08:39.01]

I mean, in fact, that's probably a bare case

[03:08:39.01 - 03:08:40.81]

to any card company today

[03:08:40.81 - 03:08:43.43]

is that especially with digital payments,

[03:08:43.63 - 03:08:45.37]

you don't even have to carry cards with you anymore.

[03:08:45.73 - 03:08:48.05]

I should go get approved for 50 cards

[03:08:48.05 - 03:08:49.45]

and write a script to make it

[03:08:49.45 - 03:08:51.25]

so that whatever the most interesting card

[03:08:51.25 - 03:08:53.45]

for that given transaction is pops to the top of my wallet.

[03:08:53.77 - 03:08:57.19]

I think there's almost no switching costs anywhere really

[03:08:57.19 - 03:09:00.73]

because when any of these banks have their contract up,

[03:09:00.73 - 03:09:02.45]

they just go and talk to Visa and MasterCard

[03:09:02.45 - 03:09:03.57]

and say, who gives me a better deal

[03:09:03.57 - 03:09:04.77]

because you guys are both the same.

[03:09:05.43 - 03:09:07.53]

This is true after the first antitrust lawsuit

[03:09:07.53 - 03:09:10.23]

when duality was introduced and banks could multi-home.

[03:09:10.83 - 03:09:12.81]

Before then, yes. After then, zero.

[03:09:13.73 - 03:09:15.05]

Well, yeah. I mean, before then,

[03:09:15.19 - 03:09:16.91]

there's interesting analysis to do

[03:09:16.91 - 03:09:18.73]

between Visa and MasterCard.

[03:09:19.07 - 03:09:19.87]

Now there is none.

[03:09:20.13 - 03:09:22.65]

Yep. Which is exactly what DHOC predicted.

[03:09:23.21 - 03:09:25.49]

Yep. But yeah, is there switching costs

[03:09:25.49 - 03:09:28.77]

between the Visa MasterCard oligopoly and someone else?

[03:09:28.77 - 03:09:31.67]

I suppose, yes, there isn't another option.

[03:09:32.17 - 03:09:32.25]

Yep.

[03:09:32.75 - 03:09:35.15]

Like if you were a bank that wanted to issue a bunch of cards

[03:09:35.15 - 03:09:36.93]

that weren't Visa or MasterCard.

[03:09:37.23 - 03:09:38.47]

I mean, I guess there's Discover.

[03:09:39.05 - 03:09:40.51]

No, that's a closed loop network too.

[03:09:40.57 - 03:09:41.27]

Oh, yeah, right.

[03:09:41.39 - 03:09:42.07]

They are their own bank.

[03:09:42.31 - 03:09:42.57]

Yep.

[03:09:42.87 - 03:09:43.45]

Pretty interesting.

[03:09:43.61 - 03:09:44.03]

Nobody else.

[03:09:44.89 - 03:09:48.37]

Counter-positioning, the last one, none now, I think.

[03:09:48.81 - 03:09:50.77]

Right. Well, you almost can't have it as an incumbent.

[03:09:51.03 - 03:09:54.83]

Right. But there was incredible counter-positioning

[03:09:54.83 - 03:09:56.09]

back in the day with Bank of America.

[03:09:56.21 - 03:09:58.31]

They were the only institution in America

[03:09:58.31 - 03:09:59.89]

that could pull this off,

[03:10:00.25 - 03:10:01.37]

that could absorb the losses,

[03:10:01.65 - 03:10:04.79]

that had minimum viable customer base on the consumer side

[03:10:04.79 - 03:10:05.95]

and on the merchant side,

[03:10:06.39 - 03:10:10.37]

that had the dynamics that they did within California,

[03:10:10.59 - 03:10:12.73]

that even though New York was still bigger as a state,

[03:10:12.85 - 03:10:14.65]

the market was so fragmented there

[03:10:14.65 - 03:10:17.27]

that none of the banks had enough power to pull this off.

[03:10:17.69 - 03:10:19.53]

They were literally the only one who could do this.

[03:10:19.99 - 03:10:21.39]

Yep. That's absolutely right.

[03:10:22.03 - 03:10:23.33]

All right. I think that's it for power.

[03:10:23.69 - 03:10:24.09]

Yep.

[03:10:24.87 - 03:10:25.27]

Playbook?

[03:10:25.59 - 03:10:26.19]

Let's do it.

[03:10:26.19 - 03:10:29.63]

The first one is, this business is a toll booth

[03:10:29.63 - 03:10:32.17]

and toll booths make for great businesses,

[03:10:32.45 - 03:10:35.37]

especially when everyone has to drive on your road

[03:10:35.37 - 03:10:36.61]

or the road next to yours

[03:10:36.61 - 03:10:38.79]

and both of them charge the same toll.

[03:10:39.47 - 03:10:41.45]

Well put. I'm going to do my best Charlie Munger.

[03:10:41.87 - 03:10:43.13]

I have nothing to add on that one.

[03:10:44.69 - 03:10:45.51]

There you go.

[03:10:46.05 - 03:10:49.09]

The next one that I think is pretty interesting is Visa.

[03:10:49.37 - 03:10:50.87]

I read their whole annual report.

[03:10:51.07 - 03:10:54.41]

They have a narrative around these new things

[03:10:54.41 - 03:10:55.13]

that they're launching,

[03:10:55.13 - 03:10:56.41]

especially the value-added services,

[03:10:56.65 - 03:10:58.13]

being good for consumers.

[03:10:58.75 - 03:11:02.07]

And everything that is good for consumers,

[03:11:02.29 - 03:11:04.05]

often for security and privacy,

[03:11:04.61 - 03:11:05.97]

is also good for Visa.

[03:11:06.51 - 03:11:08.59]

That is sort of the playbook that Visa runs

[03:11:08.59 - 03:11:10.73]

as they figure out what is something

[03:11:10.73 - 03:11:13.15]

that we can sort of advertise as a benefit to you

[03:11:13.15 - 03:11:15.51]

that also helps us either increase

[03:11:15.51 - 03:11:18.93]

number of transactions, margin, or lock-in.

[03:11:19.29 - 03:11:23.23]

And that is the way to analyze their entire product suite.

[03:11:23.35 - 03:11:24.59]

You hear something is launched,

[03:11:24.59 - 03:11:25.63]

you're like, okay, why?

[03:11:25.99 - 03:11:27.91]

Which of those three needles isn't moving for them?

[03:11:28.51 - 03:11:29.37]

That's my main one.

[03:11:29.65 - 03:11:31.19]

I've got more analysis to do in Bear Bull,

[03:11:31.31 - 03:11:32.25]

but what do you have?

[03:11:32.99 - 03:11:35.15]

The two that jump out to me are,

[03:11:35.59 - 03:11:37.99]

one, just like our NFL episode,

[03:11:38.25 - 03:11:39.67]

just like our Benchmark episodes,

[03:11:40.45 - 03:11:41.41]

Communist Capitalism.

[03:11:41.79 - 03:11:43.57]

Yes. The best example?

[03:11:43.97 - 03:11:46.61]

Yes. A, it is the best example of Communist Capitalism,

[03:11:47.09 - 03:11:48.43]

certainly that we've ever studied,

[03:11:48.95 - 03:11:50.13]

probably in the world.

[03:11:50.19 - 03:11:51.23]

Hard to imagine one better.

[03:11:51.23 - 03:11:55.13]

And two, it's like a special breed of Communist Capitalism.

[03:11:55.31 - 03:11:56.41]

You're going to laugh at this,

[03:11:56.63 - 03:12:00.17]

that I force out as Democratic Communist Capitalism.

[03:12:00.55 - 03:12:01.97]

The ultimate irony, right?

[03:12:02.19 - 03:12:04.53]

It's this idea of like, yes, it's capitalism.

[03:12:05.19 - 03:12:06.87]

It's competitors banding together

[03:12:06.87 - 03:12:08.85]

to create more value than they could alone.

[03:12:09.85 - 03:12:12.15]

But this is at a massive scale.

[03:12:12.23 - 03:12:14.03]

Like with Benchmark, it's five partners.

[03:12:14.61 - 03:12:18.63]

With the NFL, it's 30, 32 teams, something like that.

[03:12:18.63 - 03:12:22.51]

Yeah. This is our whole global financial infrastructure

[03:12:22.51 - 03:12:24.47]

that has decided to do this together.

[03:12:24.93 - 03:12:27.15]

Right. This is thousands of banks

[03:12:27.15 - 03:12:29.61]

that have decided to do this together.

[03:12:29.77 - 03:12:33.57]

It is its own separate class of this, I think.

[03:12:33.95 - 03:12:36.31]

Way, way, way harder to pull off than like,

[03:12:36.81 - 03:12:38.71]

yeah, Ben, you know, you and me together,

[03:12:38.83 - 03:12:40.93]

like acquired as Communist Capitalism for sure.

[03:12:41.59 - 03:12:43.35]

If we were starting a venture capital firm

[03:12:43.35 - 03:12:44.39]

with three of our friends,

[03:12:44.55 - 03:12:45.99]

can we pull it off with five people?

[03:12:45.99 - 03:12:46.49]

Sure.

[03:12:46.87 - 03:12:48.97]

Could we pull this off with 200 banks?

[03:12:49.69 - 03:12:50.13]

No.

[03:12:50.63 - 03:12:53.11]

Right. Especially when you're not starting from scratch.

[03:12:53.21 - 03:12:55.41]

I mean, the 200 banks that they pulled it off with,

[03:12:55.57 - 03:12:59.23]

they all had a agreement in place

[03:12:59.23 - 03:13:01.03]

where they owned a franchise

[03:13:01.03 - 03:13:03.11]

and you had to go to them and say,

[03:13:03.25 - 03:13:04.89]

you have to forfeit your franchise

[03:13:05.35 - 03:13:07.17]

and instead sign this other agreement.

[03:13:07.25 - 03:13:08.63]

It's like, you're not starting from zero.

[03:13:08.71 - 03:13:09.63]

You're starting from negative.

[03:13:09.97 - 03:13:12.25]

And Bank of America, the franchisor,

[03:13:12.63 - 03:13:13.99]

D had to go to them and say,

[03:13:13.99 - 03:13:16.27]

hey, you're going to forfeit the whole asset.

[03:13:16.85 - 03:13:17.51]

That's a great point.

[03:13:17.83 - 03:13:18.05]

Totally.

[03:13:18.53 - 03:13:19.01]

So that's one.

[03:13:19.39 - 03:13:20.65]

And then the other two, you know,

[03:13:20.85 - 03:13:23.53]

I think it's the twin stories of innovation here,

[03:13:23.63 - 03:13:26.17]

which, you know, really hat tip to Dave Stearns

[03:13:26.17 - 03:13:27.57]

for tipping us off on here.

[03:13:27.93 - 03:13:30.57]

The socio-technical innovation,

[03:13:30.85 - 03:13:31.85]

the organizational stuff,

[03:13:31.93 - 03:13:33.07]

the Communist Capitalism,

[03:13:33.19 - 03:13:34.17]

the Democratic Capitalism,

[03:13:34.23 - 03:13:35.01]

everything we're talking about.

[03:13:35.45 - 03:13:35.89]

Incredible.

[03:13:36.99 - 03:13:39.25]

Also the technology story here.

[03:13:39.73 - 03:13:40.17]

Incredible.

[03:13:40.93 - 03:13:42.23]

Neither of which,

[03:13:42.81 - 03:13:46.05]

because of this weird nature of who owned it

[03:13:46.05 - 03:13:47.43]

and how it was set up,

[03:13:48.03 - 03:13:49.19]

people really understood.

[03:13:49.45 - 03:13:51.27]

But both of which are just world-class,

[03:13:51.37 - 03:13:52.13]

incredible stories.

[03:13:52.49 - 03:13:53.97]

Yeah, super true.

[03:13:54.25 - 03:13:55.55]

And right here in Silicon Valley.

[03:13:56.75 - 03:13:59.01]

Who would have thought a success story

[03:13:59.01 - 03:13:59.95]

at a Silicon Valley?

[03:14:00.25 - 03:14:02.19]

They've gotten so beat up over the last few years.

[03:14:02.25 - 03:14:03.29]

They really deserve this nice...

[03:14:03.93 - 03:14:05.57]

But that's what I find so funny.

[03:14:05.87 - 03:14:07.09]

Nobody knows that.

[03:14:07.27 - 03:14:08.75]

This is a Silicon Valley company.

[03:14:08.75 - 03:14:10.87]

Do you ever like run into Visa people

[03:14:10.87 - 03:14:12.11]

hanging out around San Francisco?

[03:14:12.53 - 03:14:13.37]

Exceedingly rarely.

[03:14:13.91 - 03:14:15.67]

Well, I take that back.

[03:14:16.47 - 03:14:18.69]

In the tech and venture capital world,

[03:14:18.81 - 03:14:19.69]

exceedingly rarely.

[03:14:20.13 - 03:14:22.45]

In the corner of San Francisco

[03:14:22.45 - 03:14:24.23]

that very much exists,

[03:14:24.23 - 03:14:25.67]

which is the old money,

[03:14:26.59 - 03:14:27.11]

finance,

[03:14:27.41 - 03:14:29.25]

you know, the legacy of Bank of America.

[03:14:30.15 - 03:14:31.55]

Absolutely in that world.

[03:14:32.01 - 03:14:33.37]

And Jenny's in that world

[03:14:33.37 - 03:14:34.65]

because those are the folks

[03:14:34.65 - 03:14:36.39]

who are on the board of the ballet,

[03:14:36.49 - 03:14:37.09]

who are the patrons,

[03:14:37.27 - 03:14:37.79]

who are the donors.

[03:14:38.35 - 03:14:40.75]

The longtime chairman of the board

[03:14:40.75 - 03:14:42.01]

of the ballet

[03:14:42.59 - 03:14:45.95]

was the CEO of Visa USA for many years.

[03:14:46.17 - 03:14:47.39]

Like there are a lot of Visa people

[03:14:47.39 - 03:14:48.25]

in that world here.

[03:14:48.93 - 03:14:49.87]

It's funny though,

[03:14:49.93 - 03:14:50.71]

that like you would think

[03:14:50.71 - 03:14:51.75]

it would have bled more

[03:14:51.75 - 03:14:53.93]

into the Silicon Valley world,

[03:14:53.99 - 03:14:55.47]

but it really hasn't.

[03:14:55.65 - 03:14:57.49]

You would think every tech company

[03:14:57.49 - 03:14:58.45]

would love to be Visa.

[03:14:58.71 - 03:15:01.11]

The financial profile of Visa's business

[03:15:01.11 - 03:15:03.37]

is more tech

[03:15:03.37 - 03:15:04.85]

than any of the tech companies.

[03:15:05.19 - 03:15:07.05]

It is what they all wish they could have.

[03:15:07.05 - 03:15:07.67]

Yes.

[03:15:08.87 - 03:15:09.47]

Fascinating.

[03:15:09.81 - 03:15:11.09]

All right, you want to do value creation,

[03:15:11.19 - 03:15:11.67]

value capture?

[03:15:12.25 - 03:15:12.45]

Yes.

[03:15:12.95 - 03:15:16.41]

So originally Interchange

[03:15:16.41 - 03:15:18.41]

was supposed to cover the costs

[03:15:18.41 - 03:15:19.73]

of operating the network,

[03:15:20.11 - 03:15:21.59]

creating a trusted system,

[03:15:21.77 - 03:15:22.65]

preventing fraud,

[03:15:23.29 - 03:15:24.93]

offering innovation every few years

[03:15:24.93 - 03:15:25.97]

to improve the system.

[03:15:26.75 - 03:15:29.87]

And with the incredible profit margin

[03:15:29.87 - 03:15:31.01]

that Visa makes today,

[03:15:31.09 - 03:15:31.89]

not to mention whatever

[03:15:31.89 - 03:15:33.65]

the card issuing banks make,

[03:15:33.91 - 03:15:35.19]

it is very clear that the market

[03:15:35.19 - 03:15:36.37]

has evolved such that

[03:15:36.37 - 03:15:38.77]

these players can charge more

[03:15:38.77 - 03:15:39.63]

in a transaction

[03:15:39.63 - 03:15:41.05]

than is necessary

[03:15:41.05 - 03:15:42.01]

to cover their costs.

[03:15:42.43 - 03:15:42.73]

And like,

[03:15:43.03 - 03:15:44.47]

I'm not sitting here demonizing

[03:15:44.47 - 03:15:45.65]

anyone who doesn't use

[03:15:45.65 - 03:15:46.73]

cost plus pricing.

[03:15:46.99 - 03:15:47.97]

I am a capitalist.

[03:15:48.31 - 03:15:49.77]

I fully embrace the idea

[03:15:49.77 - 03:15:51.51]

that a business can

[03:15:51.51 - 03:15:53.11]

and should achieve pricing power

[03:15:53.11 - 03:15:54.79]

if it can position itself

[03:15:54.79 - 03:15:55.73]

to do so in a market.

[03:15:56.11 - 03:15:57.01]

We're looking for

[03:15:57.01 - 03:15:58.63]

high gross margins to invest in.

[03:15:58.83 - 03:15:59.75]

Right, exactly.

[03:16:00.45 - 03:16:01.59]

But it's interesting that

[03:16:01.59 - 03:16:03.55]

because of the multi-layered

[03:16:03.55 - 03:16:04.71]

network effect, David,

[03:16:04.75 - 03:16:05.35]

that you brought up

[03:16:05.35 - 03:16:06.23]

in the power section,

[03:16:06.61 - 03:16:07.99]

it is not easy

[03:16:07.99 - 03:16:09.35]

and potentially impossible

[03:16:09.35 - 03:16:11.37]

for the free market to do its thing

[03:16:11.37 - 03:16:13.09]

and have some new player

[03:16:13.09 - 03:16:15.29]

that actually applies

[03:16:15.91 - 03:16:16.93]

margin pressure here.

[03:16:17.07 - 03:16:18.21]

The free market is clearly

[03:16:18.21 - 03:16:19.35]

not playing out.

[03:16:19.59 - 03:16:21.69]

And other than a big technology

[03:16:21.69 - 03:16:23.63]

innovation that shifts the paradigm

[03:16:23.63 - 03:16:24.53]

in a huge way,

[03:16:25.33 - 03:16:28.97]

these entities have massively

[03:16:28.97 - 03:16:30.75]

optimized their costs

[03:16:31.51 - 03:16:32.99]

and continued to scale

[03:16:32.99 - 03:16:34.03]

in a huge way

[03:16:34.03 - 03:16:37.27]

such that they just get to capture

[03:16:37.79 - 03:16:39.11]

way more value

[03:16:39.11 - 03:16:40.89]

than it costs them to create.

[03:16:41.65 - 03:16:41.67]

Yep.

[03:16:41.97 - 03:16:42.91]

Seemingly indefinitely.

[03:16:43.19 - 03:16:44.33]

There's a lot more to talk about

[03:16:44.33 - 03:16:45.15]

in bare bull there.

[03:16:45.95 - 03:16:48.15]

Yes. I mean, the worst place

[03:16:48.15 - 03:16:49.21]

that this kind of shows up

[03:16:49.21 - 03:16:51.81]

is the couple percent plus 30 cents

[03:16:51.81 - 03:16:53.19]

that kind of feels small.

[03:16:53.51 - 03:16:55.83]

Yeah, the 30 cents is really pernicious.

[03:16:56.45 - 03:16:57.07]

It's pernicious,

[03:16:57.25 - 03:17:00.71]

especially for small transaction items.

[03:17:00.83 - 03:17:01.71]

So like coffee shops,

[03:17:01.77 - 03:17:03.53]

there's an example of a piece

[03:17:03.53 - 03:17:04.99]

that we'll link to in the episode sources

[03:17:04.99 - 03:17:08.53]

of a coffee roaster and shop

[03:17:09.05 - 03:17:11.05]

where their line item

[03:17:11.05 - 03:17:12.13]

of what they had to pay

[03:17:12.13 - 03:17:13.35]

in payment processing fees

[03:17:13.35 - 03:17:14.63]

is actually larger

[03:17:14.63 - 03:17:16.65]

than what they paid for beans.

[03:17:17.47 - 03:17:18.31]

Wow, that's crazy.

[03:17:18.51 - 03:17:19.85]

Even large retailers

[03:17:19.85 - 03:17:21.15]

that run at pretty thin margins,

[03:17:21.15 - 03:17:22.31]

it is often the case

[03:17:22.31 - 03:17:23.53]

that their EBITDA

[03:17:23.53 - 03:17:25.11]

is the same size

[03:17:25.11 - 03:17:26.97]

as their card processing fees.

[03:17:27.55 - 03:17:28.39]

I mean, any time

[03:17:28.39 - 03:17:30.83]

where your average transaction value

[03:17:31.53 - 03:17:33.43]

is less than 10 bucks,

[03:17:33.43 - 03:17:35.21]

that 30 cents is a killer.

[03:17:35.99 - 03:17:37.27]

That's where the 30 cents kills you.

[03:17:37.43 - 03:17:38.95]

But any time that you are

[03:17:38.95 - 03:17:40.33]

a low margin business,

[03:17:40.33 - 03:17:41.67]

which many retailers are,

[03:17:41.73 - 03:17:42.39]

if you're a discounter,

[03:17:42.49 - 03:17:43.09]

if you're a Walmart,

[03:17:43.69 - 03:17:45.37]

you're paying two,

[03:17:45.45 - 03:17:47.39]

three percent of the whole transaction.

[03:17:47.69 - 03:17:50.25]

But when you look at the margin profile,

[03:17:50.31 - 03:17:51.41]

the way that that gets amplified

[03:17:51.41 - 03:17:53.19]

is that you're paying 15 percent

[03:17:53.19 - 03:17:56.19]

or more of your available gross margin

[03:17:56.19 - 03:17:57.35]

on that item.

[03:17:57.69 - 03:17:58.69]

So the only place

[03:17:58.69 - 03:17:59.83]

where this doesn't kill you

[03:17:59.83 - 03:18:02.85]

is if you're a high gross margin

[03:18:03.43 - 03:18:05.43]

high ticket item business.

[03:18:05.65 - 03:18:06.69]

That's when you can be like,

[03:18:06.75 - 03:18:08.27]

eh, card fees, whatever.

[03:18:09.29 - 03:18:10.15]

But if you're selling

[03:18:10.15 - 03:18:11.29]

too high priced of goods,

[03:18:11.31 - 03:18:12.57]

then you often get into a scenario

[03:18:12.57 - 03:18:13.39]

where, you know,

[03:18:13.57 - 03:18:15.33]

you are doing

[03:18:15.33 - 03:18:16.77]

less frequent transactions,

[03:18:16.97 - 03:18:17.87]

more considered purchases,

[03:18:17.89 - 03:18:19.37]

and you can go around the system.

[03:18:19.69 - 03:18:21.09]

This is a bear case on Visa is,

[03:18:21.57 - 03:18:22.71]

are they ever going to participate

[03:18:22.71 - 03:18:24.37]

in real estate or cars?

[03:18:24.77 - 03:18:27.45]

Or no, not at these interchange rates.

[03:18:27.45 - 03:18:29.81]

Why would anyone ever buckle

[03:18:29.81 - 03:18:31.29]

to pay these sorts of things

[03:18:31.29 - 03:18:32.09]

for things that cost

[03:18:32.09 - 03:18:32.99]

a thousand dollars or more?

[03:18:32.99 - 03:18:34.39]

Yeah, well,

[03:18:34.51 - 03:18:35.99]

before we go into bear and bull,

[03:18:36.05 - 03:18:37.03]

where I know you

[03:18:37.03 - 03:18:37.99]

and we have a lot to talk about

[03:18:37.99 - 03:18:39.91]

what could potentially disrupt

[03:18:39.91 - 03:18:41.17]

Visa and MasterCard.

[03:18:41.67 - 03:18:43.73]

I think it is worth just one minute

[03:18:43.73 - 03:18:45.63]

on the value creation side of this.

[03:18:45.65 - 03:18:46.57]

And I really think

[03:18:46.57 - 03:18:48.43]

you hit the nail on the head

[03:18:48.43 - 03:18:50.99]

a while back when you said e-commerce.

[03:18:51.87 - 03:18:53.39]

Yes, all that other stuff

[03:18:53.39 - 03:18:54.17]

we were just talking about,

[03:18:54.21 - 03:18:55.83]

the 30 cents, you know, everything.

[03:18:55.93 - 03:18:57.85]

That is a lot of value capture.

[03:18:58.01 - 03:18:59.41]

There's a lot of value capture

[03:18:59.41 - 03:19:01.27]

that Visa is doing in MasterCard too.

[03:19:02.13 - 03:19:03.37]

On the other hand,

[03:19:03.73 - 03:19:06.31]

I don't think e-commerce

[03:19:06.31 - 03:19:08.39]

really would have happened alone.

[03:19:08.55 - 03:19:09.55]

There's plenty of other value

[03:19:09.55 - 03:19:10.41]

creation out there too.

[03:19:10.53 - 03:19:11.33]

Lots and lots and lots.

[03:19:11.43 - 03:19:12.69]

But let's just take e-commerce.

[03:19:13.05 - 03:19:14.35]

I feel like this is Passover.

[03:19:14.69 - 03:19:15.73]

Like, you know, that would have been enough.

[03:19:16.05 - 03:19:17.61]

E-commerce would have been enough.

[03:19:19.27 - 03:19:20.23]

Because I don't think it would have

[03:19:20.23 - 03:19:21.13]

happened without credit cards.

[03:19:21.97 - 03:19:22.97]

Or at least it would have been

[03:19:22.97 - 03:19:24.25]

many years behind

[03:19:24.25 - 03:19:25.89]

because you needed to sort of

[03:19:25.89 - 03:19:27.39]

invent some new mechanism

[03:19:27.39 - 03:19:28.95]

to enable payments over the internet.

[03:19:29.21 - 03:19:30.15]

Yeah. And yeah, you know,

[03:19:30.19 - 03:19:31.07]

PayPal and all that.

[03:19:31.07 - 03:19:33.41]

That would have been a long slog

[03:19:33.41 - 03:19:35.93]

if PayPal had to get an adoption

[03:19:35.93 - 03:19:37.93]

for all payments on the internet to happen.

[03:19:38.71 - 03:19:39.27]

Yeah, that's a good point.

[03:19:39.47 - 03:19:39.87]

Which, by the way,

[03:19:40.15 - 03:19:41.71]

PayPal is on a shockingly

[03:19:41.71 - 03:19:43.41]

large number of websites today.

[03:19:43.75 - 03:19:45.33]

PayPal has a lot of market power

[03:19:45.33 - 03:19:47.61]

because they have penetrated America.

[03:19:48.13 - 03:19:50.33]

They are deep in terms of

[03:19:50.33 - 03:19:51.75]

people's preferred payment method,

[03:19:51.85 - 03:19:52.57]

which is something I've been

[03:19:52.57 - 03:19:53.65]

kind of blind to.

[03:19:53.91 - 03:19:54.21]

Really?

[03:19:54.63 - 03:19:55.93]

Oh, I missed that in the research.

[03:19:56.03 - 03:19:57.45]

That's quite surprising to me.

[03:19:57.77 - 03:19:58.07]

Yeah.

[03:19:58.33 - 03:19:59.15]

Well, that leads us

[03:19:59.15 - 03:19:59.87]

right into Bear and Bull.

[03:19:59.87 - 03:20:01.59]

Yeah. PayPal is an especially

[03:20:01.59 - 03:20:02.53]

interesting company right now

[03:20:02.53 - 03:20:04.05]

because they're strategically

[03:20:04.63 - 03:20:05.93]

pretty well positioned,

[03:20:06.21 - 03:20:06.83]

but they're going through

[03:20:06.83 - 03:20:07.99]

a leadership transition.

[03:20:08.17 - 03:20:09.03]

And so you don't actually know

[03:20:09.03 - 03:20:10.07]

what the new strategy

[03:20:10.07 - 03:20:11.09]

is going to be yet.

[03:20:11.49 - 03:20:13.01]

Yeah. Okay. Bear and Bull.

[03:20:13.33 - 03:20:13.95]

Let's do it.

[03:20:14.23 - 03:20:15.91]

Well, okay. Bear.

[03:20:16.23 - 03:20:17.91]

And before I actually go into it,

[03:20:18.15 - 03:20:19.09]

a tongue-in-cheek joke is

[03:20:19.09 - 03:20:20.19]

if they ever get to stop

[03:20:20.19 - 03:20:21.41]

making the insane margins

[03:20:21.41 - 03:20:23.39]

that they do on FX transactions,

[03:20:23.39 - 03:20:24.89]

that's the ultimate bear case.

[03:20:25.01 - 03:20:25.97]

It's something like

[03:20:25.97 - 03:20:28.19]

a hundred times the margin

[03:20:28.19 - 03:20:29.99]

that they make on domestic ones.

[03:20:30.45 - 03:20:30.51]

Wow.

[03:20:30.75 - 03:20:32.01]

If you look at how Visa

[03:20:32.01 - 03:20:32.83]

breaks out segments,

[03:20:32.91 - 03:20:33.93]

you're like, oh my God,

[03:20:34.03 - 03:20:35.09]

the international transactions

[03:20:35.09 - 03:20:36.59]

are ludicrously profitable

[03:20:36.59 - 03:20:37.37]

whenever they have to do

[03:20:37.37 - 03:20:38.23]

a currency conversion.

[03:20:38.49 - 03:20:40.03]

So that's like worth knowing

[03:20:40.03 - 03:20:40.85]

when you're trying to understand

[03:20:40.85 - 03:20:41.79]

the shape of the businesses.

[03:20:42.05 - 03:20:43.03]

The more international,

[03:20:43.17 - 03:20:43.79]

the better for them.

[03:20:44.71 - 03:20:47.25]

But my real bear case

[03:20:47.25 - 03:20:49.79]

is that their business model

[03:20:49.79 - 03:20:51.75]

has basically always been tied

[03:20:51.75 - 03:20:53.19]

to the digitization

[03:20:53.19 - 03:20:54.27]

of consumer payments.

[03:20:54.27 - 03:20:55.77]

Ever since they rolled out

[03:20:55.77 - 03:20:57.13]

the three key technologies

[03:20:57.13 - 03:20:58.27]

you were talking about, David,

[03:20:58.87 - 03:21:00.15]

I mean, at this point

[03:21:00.15 - 03:21:01.43]

in global history,

[03:21:01.63 - 03:21:02.47]

which is kind of amazing,

[03:21:02.55 - 03:21:03.23]

we're finally here,

[03:21:03.61 - 03:21:05.89]

over 50% of consumer payments

[03:21:05.89 - 03:21:08.03]

to merchants go on cards now.

[03:21:08.55 - 03:21:09.79]

It took forever to get here,

[03:21:09.89 - 03:21:11.33]

40 years or something like that,

[03:21:11.39 - 03:21:11.87]

50 years.

[03:21:12.23 - 03:21:15.11]

But we will start decelerating

[03:21:15.11 - 03:21:17.59]

because we've already shifted

[03:21:17.59 - 03:21:19.35]

more than half the payments

[03:21:19.35 - 03:21:20.85]

to happen on cards.

[03:21:21.59 - 03:21:22.59]

Right. We're on the back half

[03:21:22.59 - 03:21:23.51]

of the adoption curve.

[03:21:23.93 - 03:21:25.71]

Right. So that is this tailwind

[03:21:25.71 - 03:21:27.09]

that has been with Visa forever.

[03:21:27.37 - 03:21:28.29]

Like any time you could come up

[03:21:28.29 - 03:21:29.11]

with any bear case,

[03:21:29.29 - 03:21:30.99]

it was always just trumped

[03:21:30.99 - 03:21:32.25]

by the idea that, well,

[03:21:32.35 - 03:21:33.15]

more people are going to do

[03:21:33.15 - 03:21:33.93]

digital transactions,

[03:21:33.93 - 03:21:35.89]

so they're just going to outrun

[03:21:35.89 - 03:21:37.25]

any headwinds in their way.

[03:21:37.77 - 03:21:39.13]

That will start to slow.

[03:21:39.29 - 03:21:40.29]

It's not like Visa's

[03:21:40.29 - 03:21:41.27]

core business revenue

[03:21:41.27 - 03:21:42.53]

is going to like flatline

[03:21:42.53 - 03:21:43.93]

or decline or anything like that,

[03:21:44.11 - 03:21:45.11]

but they will have less

[03:21:45.11 - 03:21:46.17]

of the growth tailwind

[03:21:46.17 - 03:21:48.77]

from this amazing secular thing

[03:21:48.77 - 03:21:49.43]

that's been happening,

[03:21:49.55 - 03:21:50.83]

which is people shifting payments

[03:21:50.83 - 03:21:52.25]

to cards and digital methods,

[03:21:52.77 - 03:21:54.03]

you know, as the years progress.

[03:21:54.03 - 03:21:54.61]

Yep.

[03:21:55.17 - 03:21:58.25]

My next one is closed loop systems

[03:21:58.25 - 03:22:00.65]

like Alipay and Tencent's ecosystem.

[03:22:01.01 - 03:22:03.21]

To the extent that super apps

[03:22:03.21 - 03:22:05.11]

actually happened in the US

[03:22:05.11 - 03:22:06.27]

the way that they did in China,

[03:22:06.67 - 03:22:07.23]

we would be telling

[03:22:07.23 - 03:22:08.35]

a very different story.

[03:22:08.55 - 03:22:09.37]

I mean, the amount of volume

[03:22:09.37 - 03:22:11.23]

that flows in the mobile ecosystem

[03:22:11.23 - 03:22:13.27]

there that is not a part

[03:22:13.27 - 03:22:14.95]

of the credit card ecosystem.

[03:22:15.41 - 03:22:16.13]

I actually don't know

[03:22:16.13 - 03:22:17.11]

if it could have happened here,

[03:22:17.33 - 03:22:19.07]

but the rise of that

[03:22:19.07 - 03:22:19.85]

is super dangerous.

[03:22:20.17 - 03:22:21.69]

And people often will cite like,

[03:22:21.81 - 03:22:22.87]

well, the Starbucks app

[03:22:22.87 - 03:22:23.91]

is a very good example

[03:22:23.91 - 03:22:25.57]

of people using a digital wallet

[03:22:25.57 - 03:22:26.85]

that's native to a retailer here.

[03:22:27.63 - 03:22:28.67]

How many people do you know

[03:22:28.67 - 03:22:30.73]

that reload their Starbucks app

[03:22:30.73 - 03:22:34.15]

with their direct checking account,

[03:22:34.43 - 03:22:35.55]

routing and account number?

[03:22:36.01 - 03:22:37.37]

Everyone actually loads it

[03:22:37.37 - 03:22:38.15]

using a credit card.

[03:22:38.81 - 03:22:39.93]

That is not bad for them at all.

[03:22:40.01 - 03:22:41.23]

It only becomes bad for them

[03:22:41.23 - 03:22:43.13]

if they actually get disintermediated

[03:22:43.13 - 03:22:44.55]

where a bank and a merchant

[03:22:44.55 - 03:22:47.17]

go direct to the merchant's consumer

[03:22:47.17 - 03:22:48.71]

and manage to initiate

[03:22:48.71 - 03:22:49.93]

a payment flow digitally

[03:22:49.93 - 03:22:51.75]

that doesn't involve a card network.

[03:22:52.07 - 03:22:52.27]

Yep.

[03:22:52.27 - 03:22:54.19]

The two things I would want to investigate

[03:22:54.19 - 03:22:56.23]

on the could what happened

[03:22:56.23 - 03:22:57.29]

in China happen here?

[03:22:57.95 - 03:23:00.15]

One, just the build out of infrastructure

[03:23:00.67 - 03:23:02.43]

happened more concurrently in China,

[03:23:02.65 - 03:23:03.61]

like payments infrastructure

[03:23:03.61 - 03:23:04.89]

is already built out here.

[03:23:05.13 - 03:23:06.13]

Technology infrastructure

[03:23:06.13 - 03:23:07.61]

got built out afterwards,

[03:23:07.73 - 03:23:08.71]

whereas it all happened

[03:23:08.71 - 03:23:09.75]

all together in China.

[03:23:10.97 - 03:23:12.47]

Two, though, maybe more important

[03:23:12.47 - 03:23:13.99]

is just the government influence, right?

[03:23:14.33 - 03:23:16.07]

I doubt the Chinese government

[03:23:16.07 - 03:23:18.35]

wanted visa, you know,

[03:23:18.55 - 03:23:20.05]

ostensibly American corporation

[03:23:20.05 - 03:23:21.55]

powering their payments.

[03:23:21.55 - 03:23:23.29]

There's actually this really interesting

[03:23:23.29 - 03:23:24.83]

weird deal that got cut

[03:23:24.83 - 03:23:26.99]

between China UnionPay and Visa,

[03:23:27.23 - 03:23:29.91]

where if you use a cup card in China,

[03:23:30.01 - 03:23:32.47]

CUP, it uses the CUP rails.

[03:23:32.65 - 03:23:33.71]

But if you go internationally

[03:23:33.71 - 03:23:34.67]

where like there is no

[03:23:34.67 - 03:23:35.75]

China UnionPay terminal

[03:23:35.75 - 03:23:37.65]

at my local coffee shop

[03:23:37.65 - 03:23:38.19]

here in Seattle,

[03:23:38.55 - 03:23:39.37]

if you were to travel here

[03:23:39.37 - 03:23:41.03]

and swipe it, it runs on Visa.

[03:23:41.53 - 03:23:42.37]

But they sort of have

[03:23:42.37 - 03:23:43.63]

the national security benefit

[03:23:43.63 - 03:23:44.89]

and the economic benefit

[03:23:44.89 - 03:23:46.89]

of four people in China,

[03:23:47.01 - 03:23:48.13]

transacting in China

[03:23:48.13 - 03:23:51.05]

that runs on China owned payment rails.

[03:23:51.05 - 03:23:52.89]

Yep. Which, you know, I mean,

[03:23:52.91 - 03:23:54.05]

I guess that is an associated

[03:23:54.05 - 03:23:54.69]

bear case, right?

[03:23:54.85 - 03:23:56.01]

China in and of itself.

[03:23:56.59 - 03:23:58.27]

And could other governments

[03:23:58.27 - 03:23:59.29]

around the world start

[03:23:59.29 - 03:24:00.57]

adopting similar postures?

[03:24:01.29 - 03:24:03.79]

Yep. The next one is similar,

[03:24:03.95 - 03:24:04.69]

but a little bit different.

[03:24:05.21 - 03:24:06.55]

Real time payment networks

[03:24:06.55 - 03:24:08.29]

are starting to become a thing.

[03:24:08.49 - 03:24:10.49]

The instant bank transfers

[03:24:10.49 - 03:24:12.01]

that these provide

[03:24:12.01 - 03:24:14.27]

are not exactly a payment system.

[03:24:14.43 - 03:24:15.69]

It lacks a lot of the features

[03:24:15.69 - 03:24:17.33]

that you would need for payments,

[03:24:17.47 - 03:24:19.17]

like the ability to refund

[03:24:19.69 - 03:24:20.91]

is a prominent one,

[03:24:20.91 - 03:24:22.43]

when you just initiate

[03:24:22.43 - 03:24:23.33]

a bank transfer,

[03:24:23.57 - 03:24:25.19]

there's no sort of insurance

[03:24:25.19 - 03:24:26.65]

around the chargeback

[03:24:26.65 - 03:24:28.23]

or a refund or anything like that.

[03:24:28.35 - 03:24:29.53]

But you could build

[03:24:29.53 - 03:24:31.53]

payment type features on top of it.

[03:24:31.79 - 03:24:32.63]

And real time payments

[03:24:32.63 - 03:24:33.71]

are starting to become a thing

[03:24:33.71 - 03:24:35.03]

in a lot of countries.

[03:24:35.57 - 03:24:36.83]

So in the US, of course,

[03:24:36.91 - 03:24:38.23]

we have FedNow,

[03:24:38.39 - 03:24:40.53]

but the adoption of that is slow

[03:24:40.53 - 03:24:42.33]

because there's not a Fed mandate

[03:24:42.33 - 03:24:43.81]

for it to happen the way

[03:24:43.81 - 03:24:44.57]

that it has happened

[03:24:44.57 - 03:24:45.25]

in other countries.

[03:24:45.65 - 03:24:48.77]

In Brazil, PIX has had

[03:24:48.77 - 03:24:49.89]

very fast uptake.

[03:24:49.89 - 03:24:52.33]

UPI in India is another one.

[03:24:52.49 - 03:24:53.63]

The UK has something

[03:24:53.63 - 03:24:54.79]

called faster payments.

[03:24:55.19 - 03:24:56.99]

And this can get especially scary

[03:24:56.99 - 03:24:58.99]

for Visa when these start

[03:24:58.99 - 03:25:01.05]

working across geographies,

[03:25:01.11 - 03:25:02.81]

like Singapore and India

[03:25:02.81 - 03:25:04.91]

have already linked theirs up.

[03:25:05.39 - 03:25:07.21]

And so that is a method

[03:25:07.21 - 03:25:08.25]

of transferring money

[03:25:08.25 - 03:25:09.37]

between countries

[03:25:09.37 - 03:25:10.97]

that has nothing to do with Visa.

[03:25:11.53 - 03:25:12.81]

And that's, I'm sure,

[03:25:12.91 - 03:25:13.43]

something they're keeping

[03:25:13.43 - 03:25:14.39]

a very close eye on

[03:25:14.39 - 03:25:15.31]

and trying to figure out,

[03:25:15.55 - 03:25:17.67]

is there a way that we can become

[03:25:18.21 - 03:25:19.69]

the real time payment system

[03:25:19.69 - 03:25:20.75]

that governments decide

[03:25:20.75 - 03:25:21.85]

that their country should adopt?

[03:25:22.35 - 03:25:23.03]

And, you know, I mean,

[03:25:23.13 - 03:25:24.45]

technology and infrastructure

[03:25:24.45 - 03:25:26.67]

and ecosystem is getting built on this,

[03:25:26.73 - 03:25:27.49]

obviously, around the world

[03:25:27.49 - 03:25:27.95]

and here too.

[03:25:28.09 - 03:25:29.11]

Great friends of the show,

[03:25:29.17 - 03:25:29.65]

Modern Treasury,

[03:25:29.87 - 03:25:30.85]

like they are enabling

[03:25:30.85 - 03:25:31.53]

a lot of this.

[03:25:32.07 - 03:25:32.29]

Totally.

[03:25:32.89 - 03:25:33.21]

Yeah.

[03:25:33.79 - 03:25:34.13]

Apple.

[03:25:34.71 - 03:25:35.73]

I just think it's like

[03:25:35.73 - 03:25:37.29]

a general bear case here,

[03:25:37.37 - 03:25:38.29]

but here's my sort of

[03:25:38.29 - 03:25:39.29]

specific implementation.

[03:25:39.49 - 03:25:40.73]

Specifically, Apple Pay, right?

[03:25:41.21 - 03:25:44.27]

Yeah. So on a Apple Pay transaction,

[03:25:44.79 - 03:25:46.69]

I'm pretty sure Apple makes

[03:25:46.69 - 03:25:48.25]

about as much as Visa does

[03:25:48.25 - 03:25:49.69]

because they stack

[03:25:49.69 - 03:25:51.73]

an extra 15 basis points

[03:25:51.73 - 03:25:54.43]

on top of the other three fees

[03:25:54.43 - 03:25:55.27]

that we talked about.

[03:25:55.43 - 03:25:57.01]

The one to go to the issuer,

[03:25:57.31 - 03:25:59.69]

the one to go to the merchant's bank,

[03:25:59.75 - 03:26:02.39]

and the one to go to Visa itself.

[03:26:02.81 - 03:26:05.43]

And so if Apple has convinced merchants

[03:26:05.43 - 03:26:07.57]

that it's fine to lose

[03:26:07.57 - 03:26:09.01]

another 15 basis points

[03:26:09.01 - 03:26:09.85]

on every transaction

[03:26:09.85 - 03:26:11.83]

because it's so freaking convenient

[03:26:11.83 - 03:26:12.93]

that users get to tap

[03:26:12.93 - 03:26:13.77]

their phone or their watch,

[03:26:14.33 - 03:26:15.97]

that is just step one

[03:26:15.97 - 03:26:16.59]

in an equation.

[03:26:16.59 - 03:26:18.91]

Here's the like really extreme

[03:26:18.91 - 03:26:20.33]

Apple payment bull case.

[03:26:20.57 - 03:26:23.85]

If Apple were to have payment terminals,

[03:26:24.13 - 03:26:25.83]

then they could totally run

[03:26:25.83 - 03:26:27.39]

all of those Apple Pay payments

[03:26:27.39 - 03:26:28.39]

on their own network.

[03:26:28.63 - 03:26:30.01]

As it happens right now,

[03:26:30.43 - 03:26:32.41]

you need to have a card

[03:26:32.41 - 03:26:33.43]

issued by a bank

[03:26:33.43 - 03:26:35.25]

that likely is issued on Visa

[03:26:35.25 - 03:26:37.11]

or MasterCard or AmEx or Discover.

[03:26:37.51 - 03:26:39.11]

And then it goes over

[03:26:39.11 - 03:26:40.21]

those payment rails.

[03:26:40.37 - 03:26:41.69]

Apple just puts a little charge

[03:26:41.69 - 03:26:42.33]

on top of it,

[03:26:42.53 - 03:26:44.19]

and then it's the same way

[03:26:44.19 - 03:26:45.29]

any other transaction happens.

[03:26:45.29 - 03:26:47.41]

But if I were to Apple Pay

[03:26:47.93 - 03:26:49.21]

with my Apple card

[03:26:49.21 - 03:26:51.13]

at an Apple point of sale,

[03:26:51.41 - 03:26:53.35]

why would that ever need to run

[03:26:53.35 - 03:26:54.55]

on Visa's network?

[03:26:55.07 - 03:26:56.57]

And so Apple doesn't make

[03:26:56.57 - 03:26:57.75]

point of sale hardware today,

[03:26:57.91 - 03:26:59.87]

but if they were to acquire Square

[03:27:00.57 - 03:27:01.95]

or if they were to do something

[03:27:01.95 - 03:27:03.11]

way out of their DNA

[03:27:03.11 - 03:27:05.01]

and go acquire like Verifone

[03:27:05.01 - 03:27:06.43]

or a legacy provider,

[03:27:06.99 - 03:27:08.87]

they could create their own

[03:27:08.87 - 03:27:10.07]

closed loop network

[03:27:10.07 - 03:27:11.47]

where they're actually

[03:27:11.47 - 03:27:12.49]

the payment method

[03:27:12.49 - 03:27:15.45]

and the merchant's

[03:27:15.45 - 03:27:16.59]

technology provider.

[03:27:17.17 - 03:27:18.91]

Yep. I actually don't even think

[03:27:18.91 - 03:27:20.01]

they'd need to do that.

[03:27:20.23 - 03:27:21.63]

I mean, they're Apple, right?

[03:27:21.69 - 03:27:23.23]

They'd just use iPads

[03:27:23.23 - 03:27:24.59]

and they would have

[03:27:24.59 - 03:27:26.51]

as part of Apple Pay,

[03:27:26.63 - 03:27:27.41]

they would have Apple Pay

[03:27:27.41 - 03:27:28.27]

for merchant software

[03:27:28.27 - 03:27:29.31]

that would be on the iPads.

[03:27:29.55 - 03:27:30.79]

No, that's too hard.

[03:27:31.07 - 03:27:32.53]

That adoption curve sucks.

[03:27:32.67 - 03:27:33.67]

I think they would pay the

[03:27:33.67 - 03:27:35.09]

what's Square's market cap

[03:27:35.09 - 03:27:36.55]

or blocks like $30 billion

[03:27:36.55 - 03:27:37.67]

or something right now.

[03:27:38.01 - 03:27:39.33]

Apple could totally just go

[03:27:39.33 - 03:27:40.79]

buy block and do this overnight

[03:27:40.79 - 03:27:41.37]

and light up

[03:27:41.37 - 03:27:42.43]

all the existing merchants.

[03:27:43.77 - 03:27:45.19]

Like what else are you going to do

[03:27:45.19 - 03:27:46.73]

with $250 billion of cash?

[03:27:47.83 - 03:27:48.91]

I mean, maybe they would try,

[03:27:49.01 - 03:27:50.57]

but Apple is not going to be

[03:27:50.57 - 03:27:52.03]

in the business of directly

[03:27:52.69 - 03:27:53.91]

having a sales force

[03:27:53.91 - 03:27:55.59]

to sign up all these merchants.

[03:27:56.07 - 03:27:56.95]

I don't think.

[03:27:57.41 - 03:27:59.33]

Agreed. I have a counterpoint to that,

[03:27:59.39 - 03:28:00.35]

but I'll save it for the bull

[03:28:00.35 - 03:28:01.57]

side of the ledger here.

[03:28:02.11 - 03:28:03.71]

Okay. I mean, the other thing,

[03:28:03.79 - 03:28:05.17]

the lighter weight thing on Apple

[03:28:05.17 - 03:28:06.99]

is even if they don't

[03:28:06.99 - 03:28:08.03]

try to build their own

[03:28:08.03 - 03:28:08.81]

closed loop thing,

[03:28:09.33 - 03:28:10.59]

who really cares

[03:28:10.59 - 03:28:11.59]

what's in your wallet

[03:28:11.59 - 03:28:13.17]

when your wallet is your phone

[03:28:13.17 - 03:28:14.47]

for consumers.

[03:28:14.65 - 03:28:16.41]

Now, if you're using your phone

[03:28:16.41 - 03:28:17.15]

in your head,

[03:28:17.21 - 03:28:18.49]

your payment method is your phone.

[03:28:18.75 - 03:28:20.33]

And it's like the card underneath

[03:28:20.33 - 03:28:22.05]

it is not terribly important,

[03:28:22.05 - 03:28:22.79]

other than the fact

[03:28:22.79 - 03:28:23.73]

that you need to remember

[03:28:23.73 - 03:28:24.73]

to auto pay it.

[03:28:24.89 - 03:28:25.55]

And like, ideally,

[03:28:25.55 - 03:28:27.39]

it has the one with the best rewards.

[03:28:27.71 - 03:28:28.73]

And that's not what

[03:28:28.73 - 03:28:29.41]

most people are thinking,

[03:28:29.45 - 03:28:30.05]

because I think actually

[03:28:30.05 - 03:28:30.89]

the majority of people

[03:28:30.89 - 03:28:32.77]

don't have rewards

[03:28:32.77 - 03:28:33.89]

based credit cards,

[03:28:34.31 - 03:28:35.87]

but they loaded some card in there.

[03:28:35.95 - 03:28:37.07]

They kind of forgot about it

[03:28:37.07 - 03:28:38.27]

and they pay.

[03:28:38.49 - 03:28:40.33]

And Apple is actually

[03:28:40.33 - 03:28:43.05]

the means of payment,

[03:28:43.43 - 03:28:44.43]

not the card.

[03:28:44.79 - 03:28:45.41]

Even though it's flowing

[03:28:45.41 - 03:28:46.09]

over their rails,

[03:28:46.23 - 03:28:47.89]

consumers don't think of it that way.

[03:28:48.91 - 03:28:50.17]

So I don't know exactly

[03:28:50.17 - 03:28:51.53]

how that will manifest

[03:28:51.53 - 03:28:53.39]

in chiseling away at Visa's value,

[03:28:53.39 - 03:28:55.71]

but it certainly is fair to say

[03:28:55.71 - 03:28:57.87]

that the card network

[03:28:57.87 - 03:28:58.93]

and the card issuer

[03:28:58.93 - 03:29:00.91]

have less of a role

[03:29:00.91 - 03:29:01.89]

in the consumer's mind

[03:29:01.89 - 03:29:03.03]

than they used to

[03:29:03.03 - 03:29:04.37]

based on the fact

[03:29:04.37 - 03:29:05.41]

that we now have mobile payments.

[03:29:05.75 - 03:29:06.99]

Yep. And Apple Pay

[03:29:06.99 - 03:29:09.01]

and Google Pay along with it

[03:29:09.65 - 03:29:12.27]

are, I think, by like

[03:29:12.85 - 03:29:14.57]

many, many, many orders of magnitude,

[03:29:14.81 - 03:29:15.89]

the most successful

[03:29:17.45 - 03:29:20.11]

quasi-alternative payment systems

[03:29:20.11 - 03:29:23.25]

that have actually gotten install bases.

[03:29:23.99 - 03:29:25.81]

Right. Google Pay is very popular too.

[03:29:26.05 - 03:29:26.57]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[03:29:26.75 - 03:29:27.49]

But like, what else?

[03:29:27.55 - 03:29:28.25]

I mean, there've been other

[03:29:28.25 - 03:29:29.73]

alternative payment systems

[03:29:29.73 - 03:29:30.63]

over the years

[03:29:30.63 - 03:29:32.13]

and none of them match,

[03:29:32.27 - 03:29:33.69]

at least domestically in the US,

[03:29:33.91 - 03:29:34.67]

Apple and Google Pay.

[03:29:35.11 - 03:29:38.91]

Yep. So my TLDR on the bear case

[03:29:38.91 - 03:29:40.63]

is the core business matures,

[03:29:40.81 - 03:29:42.19]

so that tailwind lessens.

[03:29:42.67 - 03:29:43.89]

The debit networks

[03:29:43.89 - 03:29:45.23]

get sort of chipped away at

[03:29:45.23 - 03:29:47.47]

more rails emerge for each use case

[03:29:47.47 - 03:29:48.61]

that sort of, again,

[03:29:48.69 - 03:29:50.37]

has further chipping away

[03:29:50.37 - 03:29:52.21]

at their available use cases,

[03:29:52.37 - 03:29:53.97]

even if not the actual ones

[03:29:53.97 - 03:29:55.37]

that they're using today,

[03:29:55.47 - 03:29:57.01]

but the ones that they could go tackle

[03:29:57.01 - 03:29:58.09]

in the future might get eaten

[03:29:58.09 - 03:29:58.83]

by other people

[03:29:58.83 - 03:30:00.91]

and they spend a bunch of wasted money

[03:30:00.91 - 03:30:02.05]

trying to figure it out.

[03:30:02.37 - 03:30:03.11]

But I don't know.

[03:30:03.13 - 03:30:04.79]

Those are the best bear cases

[03:30:04.79 - 03:30:05.69]

I can come up with.

[03:30:05.99 - 03:30:06.75]

And the funniest thing is

[03:30:06.75 - 03:30:07.33]

when I asked,

[03:30:07.55 - 03:30:08.39]

we'll thank a bunch of people

[03:30:08.39 - 03:30:09.01]

at the end of the show

[03:30:09.01 - 03:30:10.09]

that we had conversations with,

[03:30:10.39 - 03:30:11.47]

when we would ask people,

[03:30:12.15 - 03:30:14.31]

hey, what's your bear and bull on Visa?

[03:30:14.65 - 03:30:16.59]

Basically, everyone just gave us a bear case

[03:30:16.59 - 03:30:17.11]

because they're like,

[03:30:17.17 - 03:30:18.05]

the bull case is obvious.

[03:30:18.67 - 03:30:19.29]

Yeah, totally.

[03:30:19.81 - 03:30:22.13]

And I think the obvious bull case is,

[03:30:22.53 - 03:30:24.57]

this is just an incredibly powerful

[03:30:24.57 - 03:30:25.61]

network effect

[03:30:25.61 - 03:30:27.03]

that's 50 years in the making

[03:30:27.03 - 03:30:28.63]

and is five sided.

[03:30:29.05 - 03:30:30.45]

And Lord knows,

[03:30:30.51 - 03:30:31.29]

I can't think of any other

[03:30:31.29 - 03:30:32.55]

five sided network effects.

[03:30:33.11 - 03:30:35.67]

Riding a secular increasing market.

[03:30:36.03 - 03:30:37.43]

Yeah. Riding a secular wave

[03:30:37.43 - 03:30:40.17]

and nobody has ever broken it.

[03:30:40.51 - 03:30:41.71]

And past performance

[03:30:41.71 - 03:30:42.87]

is a strong indicator

[03:30:42.87 - 03:30:44.73]

of future performance in this domain.

[03:30:45.75 - 03:30:47.53]

Yep. The corollary of that too

[03:30:47.53 - 03:30:48.73]

is lots of people have had

[03:30:48.73 - 03:30:49.99]

lots of similar bear cases

[03:30:49.99 - 03:30:51.89]

that they've said five years ago,

[03:30:52.01 - 03:30:52.61]

10 years ago,

[03:30:52.61 - 03:30:53.61]

and like none of those things

[03:30:53.61 - 03:30:54.17]

have come true.

[03:30:54.39 - 03:30:55.97]

Visa has just continued to grow

[03:30:55.97 - 03:30:58.85]

at low double digit percent growth

[03:30:58.85 - 03:31:00.11]

every single year,

[03:31:00.25 - 03:31:01.21]

or I guess to your calculation

[03:31:01.21 - 03:31:03.65]

of 17% over 51 years.

[03:31:04.11 - 03:31:05.81]

People in the past have said

[03:31:05.81 - 03:31:07.57]

many of these bear cases,

[03:31:07.79 - 03:31:09.75]

but have never come true.

[03:31:10.89 - 03:31:12.57]

So that's kind of the most obvious.

[03:31:13.05 - 03:31:14.61]

Here are the few that

[03:31:14.61 - 03:31:16.71]

are most evident to me

[03:31:16.71 - 03:31:18.43]

that are sort of potentials

[03:31:18.43 - 03:31:19.75]

on top of their core business.

[03:31:19.75 - 03:31:21.73]

Because it is true that interchange

[03:31:21.73 - 03:31:23.17]

is facing downward pressure.

[03:31:23.77 - 03:31:24.67]

I mean, we talked about all the way

[03:31:24.67 - 03:31:26.23]

from 7% down to two and change.

[03:31:26.79 - 03:31:29.07]

And so they do these

[03:31:29.07 - 03:31:30.91]

interesting other things.

[03:31:31.37 - 03:31:33.27]

One benefit to them

[03:31:33.27 - 03:31:34.07]

of digital payments,

[03:31:34.09 - 03:31:35.79]

we talked about the potential drawback

[03:31:35.79 - 03:31:36.71]

with Apple being able

[03:31:36.71 - 03:31:38.55]

to maybe disintermediate in some way

[03:31:38.55 - 03:31:39.79]

that's not exactly clear yet,

[03:31:40.23 - 03:31:41.89]

is tokenization.

[03:31:42.55 - 03:31:44.61]

So the way that Apple Pay works

[03:31:44.61 - 03:31:45.87]

is that your card

[03:31:45.87 - 03:31:47.55]

doesn't actually get sent

[03:31:47.55 - 03:31:48.01]

to the merchant,

[03:31:48.21 - 03:31:48.93]

your card number.

[03:31:49.07 - 03:31:50.35]

None of the identifying information

[03:31:50.35 - 03:31:51.41]

on there goes.

[03:31:51.69 - 03:31:54.53]

Instead, your card gets tokenized

[03:31:54.53 - 03:31:57.41]

and a token representing your card does,

[03:31:57.49 - 03:31:58.83]

which is, as Visa will tell you,

[03:31:58.85 - 03:32:00.41]

amazing for security and privacy.

[03:32:01.37 - 03:32:02.93]

What it also does is allows them

[03:32:02.93 - 03:32:04.93]

to create more proprietary services.

[03:32:04.93 - 03:32:06.95]

In the old card number system,

[03:32:07.11 - 03:32:08.43]

there was a lot more flexibility

[03:32:08.43 - 03:32:09.61]

in what a merchant

[03:32:09.61 - 03:32:10.89]

and their payment processor

[03:32:10.89 - 03:32:11.75]

could actually do

[03:32:11.75 - 03:32:13.71]

with the literal information on the card.

[03:32:13.91 - 03:32:14.77]

They could choose

[03:32:14.77 - 03:32:16.17]

what network to run it on.

[03:32:16.61 - 03:32:18.53]

There was sort of more optionality with it

[03:32:18.53 - 03:32:19.79]

when you had the raw information.

[03:32:19.97 - 03:32:20.81]

And now Visa's like,

[03:32:20.87 - 03:32:21.53]

hey, we got your token.

[03:32:21.93 - 03:32:22.81]

Do you want us to do

[03:32:22.81 - 03:32:24.67]

any of the cool token-based services

[03:32:24.67 - 03:32:25.61]

that we have with it?

[03:32:25.77 - 03:32:27.65]

And like, those are high margin for us.

[03:32:28.37 - 03:32:30.07]

And so that's sort of the tokenization

[03:32:30.07 - 03:32:30.93]

is good for them.

[03:32:31.43 - 03:32:33.49]

They now have more digital tokens

[03:32:33.49 - 03:32:35.23]

than card credentials.

[03:32:35.63 - 03:32:37.17]

That's been growing really fast.

[03:32:37.29 - 03:32:38.45]

It doubled last year.

[03:32:38.89 - 03:32:40.67]

They're sort of tokens on their network.

[03:32:41.57 - 03:32:42.99]

So, you know, Visa's quote on this is,

[03:32:43.49 - 03:32:44.75]

this marks a huge milestone,

[03:32:45.07 - 03:32:46.21]

both for the transition to digital

[03:32:46.21 - 03:32:47.59]

and in our work to secure

[03:32:47.59 - 03:32:48.91]

the wider payments ecosystem.

[03:32:49.37 - 03:32:50.87]

And you better bet that that's good for,

[03:32:51.15 - 03:32:52.19]

you know, long-term margins

[03:32:52.19 - 03:32:54.19]

and layering products later on.

[03:32:54.91 - 03:32:56.03]

Other bull cases.

[03:32:56.59 - 03:32:58.31]

So this is like my favorite one from there.

[03:32:58.43 - 03:32:59.67]

Remember the NVIDIA slide

[03:32:59.67 - 03:33:01.67]

of the trillion dollar TAM?

[03:33:02.31 - 03:33:03.99]

So here's Visa's version.

[03:33:04.69 - 03:33:06.41]

Payments, all of payments

[03:33:06.41 - 03:33:09.31]

is about $200 trillion of volume.

[03:33:09.91 - 03:33:12.21]

And cards are only $20 trillion.

[03:33:13.15 - 03:33:14.99]

So here we've been playing

[03:33:14.99 - 03:33:16.69]

in this tiny little fraction

[03:33:16.69 - 03:33:18.09]

of the available market.

[03:33:18.31 - 03:33:20.23]

And there's a few things that they call out

[03:33:20.23 - 03:33:21.23]

that they want to move into.

[03:33:21.63 - 03:33:24.67]

That B2B payments is about $120 trillion

[03:33:24.67 - 03:33:25.91]

if they can access it.

[03:33:26.29 - 03:33:28.27]

B2B commerce is actually just much larger

[03:33:28.27 - 03:33:29.51]

than B2C commerce.

[03:33:29.59 - 03:33:30.75]

If you think about the amount of money

[03:33:30.75 - 03:33:32.25]

that flows over invoices

[03:33:32.83 - 03:33:35.47]

that are paid via ACH or wire,

[03:33:36.29 - 03:33:38.41]

Visa, I think, is intensely aware

[03:33:38.41 - 03:33:39.61]

that they're not going to take

[03:33:39.61 - 03:33:40.89]

two and a half percent interchange

[03:33:40.89 - 03:33:43.45]

on a company invoicing another company

[03:33:43.45 - 03:33:44.95]

for a million dollar

[03:33:44.95 - 03:33:46.65]

services provided thing.

[03:33:47.07 - 03:33:49.25]

But, you know, there are elements of B2B

[03:33:49.25 - 03:33:50.19]

that do have interchange.

[03:33:50.43 - 03:33:51.31]

I mean, if you're issued

[03:33:51.31 - 03:33:53.07]

a Ramp or Brex card

[03:33:53.07 - 03:33:54.13]

and you go swipe,

[03:33:54.21 - 03:33:55.29]

that's a B2B transaction.

[03:33:55.57 - 03:33:57.07]

So they're very excited

[03:33:57.07 - 03:33:58.49]

about addressing B2B

[03:33:58.49 - 03:34:00.85]

both in their further push in cards,

[03:34:00.95 - 03:34:03.59]

but also developing B2B specific products

[03:34:03.59 - 03:34:05.23]

that have more appropriate

[03:34:05.23 - 03:34:06.67]

monetization models.

[03:34:07.15 - 03:34:07.95]

And then they also,

[03:34:08.13 - 03:34:09.33]

we've been talking a lot

[03:34:09.33 - 03:34:10.65]

about consumer to business.

[03:34:10.65 - 03:34:12.67]

Like when I decide to pay for something

[03:34:12.67 - 03:34:13.71]

at a business,

[03:34:14.19 - 03:34:15.99]

if you flip that business to consumer,

[03:34:16.65 - 03:34:19.41]

that is a $30 trillion TAM

[03:34:19.41 - 03:34:21.45]

or a $30 trillion volume

[03:34:21.45 - 03:34:23.09]

addressable opportunity.

[03:34:23.35 - 03:34:24.43]

And you can think of that

[03:34:24.43 - 03:34:26.21]

as like insurance company

[03:34:26.21 - 03:34:28.65]

needs to like pay out

[03:34:28.65 - 03:34:30.15]

after a car insurance

[03:34:30.15 - 03:34:31.51]

and they need to make that happen fast.

[03:34:31.97 - 03:34:33.05]

Or refunds.

[03:34:33.35 - 03:34:34.65]

Let's say you never bought anything,

[03:34:34.77 - 03:34:35.55]

but a company still needs

[03:34:35.55 - 03:34:36.37]

to send you some money.

[03:34:36.73 - 03:34:38.77]

Or like Uber needs to pay their drivers.

[03:34:39.03 - 03:34:39.81]

This sort of thing is

[03:34:39.81 - 03:34:40.89]

there's a whole business

[03:34:40.89 - 03:34:42.37]

they've created called Visa Direct,

[03:34:42.69 - 03:34:43.57]

which is the business

[03:34:43.57 - 03:34:45.85]

to consumer push-based payments,

[03:34:46.09 - 03:34:48.27]

which is a kind of a new foray for them.

[03:34:49.19 - 03:34:50.23]

And then the last one is just

[03:34:50.23 - 03:34:51.79]

expansion of cross-border payments.

[03:34:51.95 - 03:34:52.79]

If they can do more

[03:34:52.79 - 03:34:53.71]

international transactions,

[03:34:53.71 - 03:34:55.11]

that is hugely,

[03:34:55.11 - 03:34:56.05]

hugely profitable.

[03:34:56.93 - 03:34:58.45]

So that is me trying

[03:34:58.45 - 03:34:59.51]

to faithfully represent

[03:34:59.51 - 03:35:00.87]

the bull case that Visa paints

[03:35:00.87 - 03:35:01.57]

for their shareholders.

[03:35:02.47 - 03:35:02.73]

Because David,

[03:35:02.75 - 03:35:03.83]

these bull cases are so easy.

[03:35:03.89 - 03:35:04.79]

You should read the annual report.

[03:35:04.89 - 03:35:05.69]

The whole thing's a bull case.

[03:35:05.87 - 03:35:06.07]

Yeah, right.

[03:35:07.57 - 03:35:08.73]

One other additional I said

[03:35:08.73 - 03:35:09.99]

I was going to add on bull case

[03:35:09.99 - 03:35:11.71]

sort of as a response to the Apple

[03:35:11.71 - 03:35:14.03]

and my association, Google bear case.

[03:35:14.85 - 03:35:15.63]

You know, pretty much everybody

[03:35:15.63 - 03:35:17.51]

we talked to pointed out

[03:35:17.51 - 03:35:18.31]

as the number one,

[03:35:18.37 - 03:35:20.27]

most obvious bear case for Visa

[03:35:20.27 - 03:35:21.95]

right now is Apple and Google.

[03:35:21.95 - 03:35:25.29]

And the incredible progress

[03:35:25.29 - 03:35:26.63]

and inroads that they have made

[03:35:26.63 - 03:35:28.97]

into rails and transactions.

[03:35:29.85 - 03:35:30.89]

But as you say,

[03:35:31.03 - 03:35:32.19]

all those transactions

[03:35:32.75 - 03:35:34.05]

are still just tokenized

[03:35:34.05 - 03:35:36.25]

Visa MasterCard cards, right?

[03:35:36.57 - 03:35:37.83]

It's a bull case today.

[03:35:38.21 - 03:35:39.53]

Yeah, it's a bull case today.

[03:35:40.09 - 03:35:41.35]

You know, there may be nuance

[03:35:41.35 - 03:35:42.27]

that I'm missing here,

[03:35:42.35 - 03:35:44.59]

but if you play out how,

[03:35:45.13 - 03:35:46.19]

let's say Apple decides,

[03:35:46.29 - 03:35:47.91]

OK, we want to go after Visa.

[03:35:48.51 - 03:35:50.25]

I'm not sure how Apple

[03:35:50.25 - 03:35:52.21]

could actually do that

[03:35:52.89 - 03:35:54.69]

really without becoming a bank

[03:35:54.69 - 03:35:56.73]

themselves, you know?

[03:35:57.25 - 03:35:58.55]

AmEx is a closed loop system.

[03:35:58.65 - 03:35:59.17]

It's a bank.

[03:35:59.53 - 03:36:01.35]

Discover is closed loop system.

[03:36:01.49 - 03:36:02.05]

It's a bank.

[03:36:02.23 - 03:36:04.27]

Does Apple want to be a bank?

[03:36:04.79 - 03:36:06.35]

Well, they could become like a stripe.

[03:36:06.65 - 03:36:07.71]

Yeah, I guess so.

[03:36:07.87 - 03:36:08.71]

Or like a square.

[03:36:08.93 - 03:36:10.09]

They're the technology providers

[03:36:10.09 - 03:36:11.61]

and they have merchant

[03:36:11.61 - 03:36:13.05]

acquirer banks behind them.

[03:36:14.49 - 03:36:15.61]

Yeah, sure.

[03:36:15.71 - 03:36:17.01]

They could do that.

[03:36:17.01 - 03:36:19.65]

Apple's finance and fintech

[03:36:19.65 - 03:36:21.91]

operations do not exist in a vacuum.

[03:36:22.75 - 03:36:24.19]

Is Apple going to take on the risk

[03:36:24.19 - 03:36:25.57]

to the Apple franchise

[03:36:26.37 - 03:36:27.59]

of all the regulation

[03:36:27.59 - 03:36:29.15]

and scrutiny that comes from that?

[03:36:29.49 - 03:36:30.09]

It depends.

[03:36:30.91 - 03:36:32.27]

Apple will eventually

[03:36:32.27 - 03:36:33.23]

saturate their market

[03:36:33.23 - 03:36:34.81]

and they are looking for

[03:36:34.81 - 03:36:36.47]

what the next frontier is

[03:36:36.47 - 03:36:39.79]

and $200 trillion of volume

[03:36:39.79 - 03:36:41.19]

moving around the global economy.

[03:36:41.67 - 03:36:43.19]

I think, yes, absolutely.

[03:36:43.87 - 03:36:45.31]

And so I'm not saying this won't happen,

[03:36:45.31 - 03:36:47.45]

but Tim Cook board level

[03:36:47.45 - 03:36:48.67]

discussion on this, right?

[03:36:49.45 - 03:36:50.09]

Let's play out

[03:36:50.09 - 03:36:51.55]

the DHOC thought exercise.

[03:36:51.91 - 03:36:52.63]

Apple succeeds.

[03:36:52.85 - 03:36:53.41]

They do it.

[03:36:53.67 - 03:36:54.57]

They eat Visa.

[03:36:55.27 - 03:36:57.05]

Visa's market cap is now added

[03:36:57.05 - 03:36:58.41]

to Apple's market cap.

[03:36:59.09 - 03:36:59.53]

Great.

[03:36:59.63 - 03:37:01.47]

Apple's market cap just grew by 25%.

[03:37:02.57 - 03:37:03.93]

Well, I think they have to think

[03:37:03.93 - 03:37:06.05]

that they can improve something.

[03:37:06.23 - 03:37:07.35]

They won't go into this

[03:37:07.35 - 03:37:08.73]

unless they think they can improve

[03:37:08.73 - 03:37:09.95]

both the user experience

[03:37:09.95 - 03:37:11.97]

and create a better business out of it.

[03:37:12.19 - 03:37:12.55]

Great point.

[03:37:12.65 - 03:37:13.17]

Great point.

[03:37:13.23 - 03:37:13.67]

And they will.

[03:37:13.77 - 03:37:14.71]

I mean, the Vision Pro

[03:37:14.71 - 03:37:16.15]

will come out and we'll have to see

[03:37:16.15 - 03:37:17.59]

if that is the future or not.

[03:37:17.93 - 03:37:18.75]

But post that,

[03:37:18.93 - 03:37:20.45]

like they're going to do a car

[03:37:20.45 - 03:37:22.39]

or they're going to go into payments.

[03:37:22.65 - 03:37:22.69]

Right.

[03:37:22.85 - 03:37:23.77]

They got to keep going

[03:37:23.77 - 03:37:24.99]

after bigger and bigger markets.

[03:37:25.19 - 03:37:25.59]

You're right.

[03:37:25.71 - 03:37:26.13]

You're right.

[03:37:26.17 - 03:37:27.31]

The cute Apple that we know

[03:37:27.31 - 03:37:28.53]

of years past is gone.

[03:37:28.65 - 03:37:29.47]

And we just have to think about,

[03:37:29.57 - 03:37:30.31]

like, what would a good

[03:37:30.31 - 03:37:31.45]

capital allocator do

[03:37:31.45 - 03:37:32.63]

with their strategic position?

[03:37:33.29 - 03:37:33.45]

True.

[03:37:33.85 - 03:37:34.73]

I'm not making the argument

[03:37:34.73 - 03:37:35.97]

that they're still the cute Apple.

[03:37:36.19 - 03:37:36.87]

I'm just saying, like,

[03:37:36.91 - 03:37:38.67]

I think actually entering this arena

[03:37:38.67 - 03:37:40.49]

introduces a significant amount

[03:37:40.49 - 03:37:41.65]

of risk to the whole franchise

[03:37:41.65 - 03:37:42.73]

that they have to weigh

[03:37:42.73 - 03:37:44.17]

in a way that some of these

[03:37:44.17 - 03:37:45.09]

other markets don't.

[03:37:46.01 - 03:37:46.73]

That's super true.

[03:37:47.43 - 03:37:47.75]

Okay.

[03:37:47.89 - 03:37:49.51]

I have one trivia thing for you

[03:37:49.51 - 03:37:50.21]

before carve outs.

[03:37:50.41 - 03:37:51.51]

You may already know this,

[03:37:51.61 - 03:37:53.77]

but did you know that

[03:37:54.49 - 03:37:56.91]

you can get a Bank of America card today?

[03:37:57.57 - 03:37:59.21]

I did not.

[03:37:59.57 - 03:38:01.41]

Is it like a branded visa product

[03:38:01.41 - 03:38:02.51]

from Bank of America?

[03:38:02.83 - 03:38:04.51]

It is a branded product

[03:38:04.51 - 03:38:05.69]

from Bank of America

[03:38:05.69 - 03:38:07.67]

available on bankofamerica.com.

[03:38:07.77 - 03:38:08.63]

There's no annual fee.

[03:38:08.77 - 03:38:10.39]

Click on their website to apply now.

[03:38:10.51 - 03:38:12.47]

And the beautiful irony

[03:38:12.47 - 03:38:13.55]

that will tie a bow

[03:38:13.55 - 03:38:14.65]

on this whole episode

[03:38:15.09 - 03:38:17.25]

is the Bank AmeriCard credit card

[03:38:17.25 - 03:38:18.43]

by Bank of America

[03:38:19.05 - 03:38:20.87]

runs on MasterCard's network.

[03:38:22.11 - 03:38:24.27]

As users started to set that up,

[03:38:24.35 - 03:38:24.57]

I was like,

[03:38:24.61 - 03:38:25.85]

I know where you're going with this.

[03:38:26.01 - 03:38:27.51]

I know where you're going with this.

[03:38:28.37 - 03:38:29.45]

Interbank for the win.

[03:38:29.49 - 03:38:30.61]

We'll link to it in the show notes.

[03:38:31.03 - 03:38:32.33]

Get yourself a Bank AmeriCard

[03:38:32.83 - 03:38:34.17]

and run your transactions

[03:38:34.17 - 03:38:35.11]

over MasterCard's

[03:38:35.11 - 03:38:36.53]

beautiful stellar network.

[03:38:36.71 - 03:38:37.15]

Wow.

[03:38:37.99 - 03:38:39.79]

That is hilarious.

[03:38:40.59 - 03:38:42.09]

What a great place to leave the story.

[03:38:42.09 - 03:38:43.67]

There can't be that many people

[03:38:43.67 - 03:38:44.83]

that are applying for this thing.

[03:38:44.91 - 03:38:45.95]

And you would think that Visa

[03:38:45.95 - 03:38:47.41]

would try to go get this deal done

[03:38:47.41 - 03:38:48.63]

just for nostalgia purposes.

[03:38:48.95 - 03:38:50.19]

That's a crime against

[03:38:50.19 - 03:38:51.63]

internet and business history.

[03:38:51.77 - 03:38:53.05]

What a story, man.

[03:38:53.69 - 03:38:54.21]

Truly.

[03:38:54.55 - 03:38:54.79]

Okay.

[03:38:55.09 - 03:38:55.45]

Carveouts?

[03:38:55.85 - 03:38:56.27]

Carveouts.

[03:38:57.03 - 03:38:59.41]

Mine is available on Netflix.

[03:38:59.71 - 03:39:00.63]

It is a show called

[03:39:00.63 - 03:39:02.17]

I Think You Should Leave.

[03:39:02.55 - 03:39:04.23]

I have not laughed this hard

[03:39:04.23 - 03:39:05.61]

in a long time.

[03:39:05.99 - 03:39:07.11]

Each episode's like 15 minutes.

[03:39:07.21 - 03:39:08.51]

It's like three comedy sketches

[03:39:08.51 - 03:39:10.25]

with a guy named Tim Robinson

[03:39:10.25 - 03:39:11.57]

as sort of the brains behind it

[03:39:11.57 - 03:39:13.09]

in many of the episodes.

[03:39:13.29 - 03:39:14.79]

Oh, we were talking about this

[03:39:14.79 - 03:39:15.83]

at our drinks in New York.

[03:39:16.25 - 03:39:16.57]

Yes.

[03:39:17.41 - 03:39:18.99]

If I were you, listeners,

[03:39:19.15 - 03:39:20.15]

and you haven't watched this yet,

[03:39:20.23 - 03:39:22.77]

I would go to season three, episode one.

[03:39:23.25 - 03:39:24.75]

My favorite skit of them all

[03:39:24.75 - 03:39:26.69]

starts approximately six minutes in.

[03:39:27.01 - 03:39:27.93]

Actually, the whole episode's good,

[03:39:28.05 - 03:39:29.61]

but the skits two and three

[03:39:29.61 - 03:39:32.55]

are the truly unbelievable ones.

[03:39:32.67 - 03:39:35.45]

But it's just, he's so outlandish.

[03:39:35.59 - 03:39:37.67]

And so, I don't know.

[03:39:37.73 - 03:39:38.55]

It's like everything

[03:39:38.55 - 03:39:40.01]

that sketch comedy should be

[03:39:40.01 - 03:39:42.33]

in the absolute highest production value

[03:39:42.33 - 03:39:43.61]

you could possibly imagine

[03:39:44.25 - 03:39:45.79]

shot very convincingly,

[03:39:45.89 - 03:39:47.95]

I think using the same cinematographer,

[03:39:48.11 - 03:39:50.87]

but using a completely different set of lenses,

[03:39:51.17 - 03:39:52.69]

lighting sets, post-production,

[03:39:52.93 - 03:39:53.73]

such that everything

[03:39:53.73 - 03:39:54.67]

that they're trying to emulate,

[03:39:54.85 - 03:39:55.91]

whether it's a game show

[03:39:55.91 - 03:39:57.53]

or a dating show or a commercial,

[03:39:58.07 - 03:40:00.53]

feels like the appropriate thing

[03:40:00.53 - 03:40:01.25]

that they're trying to emulate.

[03:40:01.39 - 03:40:02.29]

It's just really good.

[03:40:02.91 - 03:40:03.47]

That's amazing.

[03:40:03.81 - 03:40:04.47]

I'll have to check it out.

[03:40:05.63 - 03:40:07.55]

My Carveout is a book.

[03:40:07.55 - 03:40:10.33]

I think this is my first fun fiction book

[03:40:10.33 - 03:40:11.07]

in a while.

[03:40:12.05 - 03:40:13.95]

Mistborn by Brandon Sanderson.

[03:40:14.19 - 03:40:16.29]

It is a awesome fantasy novel,

[03:40:16.37 - 03:40:17.03]

the first in the series,

[03:40:17.11 - 03:40:18.85]

but you can read it as a standalone too.

[03:40:19.43 - 03:40:20.85]

It's been out for a long time

[03:40:20.85 - 03:40:22.95]

and has many, many passionate fans out there.

[03:40:23.07 - 03:40:24.67]

It was recommended to me

[03:40:24.67 - 03:40:26.97]

by great friend of the show,

[03:40:27.17 - 03:40:29.19]

Guy Paggiarni, the founder of Snyk,

[03:40:29.47 - 03:40:30.33]

last time we got together,

[03:40:30.43 - 03:40:31.01]

which was super fun.

[03:40:31.11 - 03:40:32.65]

Snyk is an amazing, very large

[03:40:32.65 - 03:40:33.67]

cybersecurity company

[03:40:33.67 - 03:40:34.87]

that I'm sure many of you know about.

[03:40:35.09 - 03:40:36.61]

Focused on developers, right?

[03:40:36.61 - 03:40:37.87]

Yeah, developer security.

[03:40:38.03 - 03:40:39.25]

You see their billboards all up and down.

[03:40:39.39 - 03:40:40.47]

101 here in San Francisco.

[03:40:41.11 - 03:40:42.93]

But yeah, he recommended it to me a while back

[03:40:42.93 - 03:40:45.39]

and it took me a while to get to it.

[03:40:45.47 - 03:40:46.55]

You know, toddler parenting.

[03:40:47.07 - 03:40:47.91]

But I read it.

[03:40:47.97 - 03:40:48.73]

I thought it was awesome.

[03:40:49.23 - 03:40:49.79]

Jenny read it.

[03:40:49.89 - 03:40:50.29]

She loves it.

[03:40:50.29 - 03:40:51.79]

She's of course now done the whole series

[03:40:51.79 - 03:40:53.29]

because she's a voracious reader.

[03:40:54.09 - 03:40:56.59]

The world building, the magical system,

[03:40:57.37 - 03:40:58.87]

all the core fantasy elements

[03:40:58.87 - 03:41:00.03]

are really great.

[03:41:00.07 - 03:41:02.27]

The political intrigue, highly recommend.

[03:41:02.99 - 03:41:03.25]

Awesome.

[03:41:04.17 - 03:41:05.61]

Well, we definitely have a few thank yous

[03:41:05.61 - 03:41:06.19]

on this one.

[03:41:06.19 - 03:41:08.01]

Huge thank you to Dave Stearns

[03:41:08.01 - 03:41:09.09]

for spending the time with us

[03:41:09.09 - 03:41:11.17]

and recanting his academic thesis.

[03:41:11.69 - 03:41:13.05]

And it was just awesome reading the book.

[03:41:13.57 - 03:41:14.91]

I have a personal thank you to

[03:41:14.91 - 03:41:16.99]

a good friend of mine, Jason Pate of Plaid.

[03:41:17.17 - 03:41:19.39]

Very helpful to get just general,

[03:41:19.57 - 03:41:21.55]

high-level thoughts on payments industry.

[03:41:22.25 - 03:41:24.57]

Thank you to Lisa Ellis from Moffitt Nathanson.

[03:41:24.83 - 03:41:26.57]

Lisa did an amazing interview

[03:41:26.57 - 03:41:27.99]

with Ben Thompson a few weeks back.

[03:41:28.07 - 03:41:29.11]

If you are a Stratecri subscriber,

[03:41:29.59 - 03:41:31.27]

that is totally worth reading

[03:41:31.27 - 03:41:32.31]

and I prefer listening.

[03:41:32.65 - 03:41:33.73]

So go listen to that.

[03:41:34.07 - 03:41:35.55]

After I read that, I shot her an email

[03:41:35.55 - 03:41:36.75]

and I was like, we're about to do these.

[03:41:36.87 - 03:41:38.45]

I would love to talk to you about some of this.

[03:41:38.65 - 03:41:39.81]

So a huge thanks to her.

[03:41:40.23 - 03:41:40.87]

Good friend of the show,

[03:41:40.97 - 03:41:42.07]

Dimitri from Modern Treasury

[03:41:42.07 - 03:41:45.33]

for helping us quickly get up to speed on payments.

[03:41:45.93 - 03:41:47.67]

And good friend of mine and David's both,

[03:41:47.77 - 03:41:51.55]

Ben Idelson, who is a former product person from Stripe.

[03:41:51.81 - 03:41:54.77]

Our huge thanks to Blinkist, Statsig and Crusoe.

[03:41:54.95 - 03:41:55.99]

Click the link in the show notes

[03:41:55.99 - 03:41:59.09]

to get access to each of their awesome offers.

[03:41:59.85 - 03:42:01.79]

Sign up for emails to find out

[03:42:01.79 - 03:42:03.19]

about the latest acquired episodes,

[03:42:03.19 - 03:42:05.15]

to get in on our teasers

[03:42:05.15 - 03:42:06.71]

of what the next episode is going to be

[03:42:06.71 - 03:42:09.17]

and hear the follow-ups and corrections

[03:42:09.17 - 03:42:10.45]

after we learn them from you.

[03:42:10.77 - 03:42:13.99]

You should join the Slack, acquired.fm slash Slack.

[03:42:14.41 - 03:42:16.27]

You should check out ACQ2.

[03:42:16.89 - 03:42:18.73]

In particular, our next episode,

[03:42:18.83 - 03:42:19.83]

it is not out yet,

[03:42:19.89 - 03:42:22.63]

is going to be a follow-up to this episode on Visa.

[03:42:23.09 - 03:42:25.25]

Our buddy Gaurav from Thrive Capital

[03:42:25.25 - 03:42:26.99]

is joining us for a follow-up

[03:42:26.99 - 03:42:29.49]

to analyze the payments landscape today.

[03:42:29.91 - 03:42:31.57]

And Gaurav has spent his entire career

[03:42:31.57 - 03:42:34.25]

as a founder and investor in fintech companies.

[03:42:34.65 - 03:42:35.67]

And he actually gave a talk

[03:42:35.67 - 03:42:36.91]

on the history of credit cards

[03:42:36.91 - 03:42:39.37]

that we used for research in this episode.

[03:42:39.61 - 03:42:41.11]

So check out ACQ2,

[03:42:41.29 - 03:42:43.19]

search and subscribe to any podcast player.

[03:42:43.57 - 03:42:45.95]

And then the next week, maybe two weeks,

[03:42:46.33 - 03:42:48.47]

our interview with Gaurav will come out

[03:42:48.47 - 03:42:49.71]

and be sure to check it out.

[03:42:50.21 - 03:42:51.89]

With that, check out the merch store,

[03:42:52.09 - 03:42:53.37]

acquired.fm slash store.

[03:42:53.61 - 03:42:54.83]

Can support some of this sweet,

[03:42:54.93 - 03:42:56.29]

I'm wearing the shirt right now,

[03:42:56.43 - 03:42:57.35]

sweet swag around.

[03:42:57.59 - 03:42:58.67]

You can pay some interchange fees.

[03:42:59.19 - 03:42:59.89]

That's right.

[03:43:00.79 - 03:43:01.39]

That's right.

[03:43:02.11 - 03:43:03.79]

And with that listeners, we'll see you next time.

[03:43:04.09 - 03:43:04.95]

We'll see you next time.

v1.0.0.240919-5_os