2023-11-27 03:43:25
Every company has a story. Learn the playbooks that built the world’s greatest companies — and how you can apply them as a founder, operator, or investor.
It's funny, when we picked this episode, I was like, Oh, this is gonna be pretty down
the middle and easy. And then, of course, as we get into the research, as always, it's
like, Oh, no, big story here. There's always a story. Who got the truth? Is it you? Is
it you? Is it you? Who got the truth now? Is it you? Is it you? Is it you? Sit me down.
Say it straight. Another story on the way. Who got the truth? Welcome to Season 13, Episode
4 of Acquired, the podcast about great technology companies and the stories and playbooks behind
them. I'm Ben Gilbert. I'm David Rosenthal. And we are your hosts. Today, we tell the
story of an absolutely incredible system. You can show up anywhere in the entire world
with a piece of plastic and transact for anything you want in any currency. The merchant doesn't
need to know you or trust you, and you do not need to know or trust the merchant. And
Visa, along with just one other competitor, MasterCard, has tirelessly spent decades stitching
together all the banks, merchants, and the relationships with consumers to make this
possible. Now, this is just the rosy side of the story, and merchants may harbor far
less rosy feelings about Visa, given how much of their profits go to interchange fees. But
the duality of the story is what makes it so interesting to understand. Today, we will
explore how the whole thing came to be, and try to understand the value that the credit
and debit card system creates, compared with how much it captures, and by whom, in what
situations. So here are some astonishing stats on Visa. It is the 11th most valuable company
in the world. It is worth more than any bank in the world, including every bank involved
in creating it. Visa's brand is among the very most trusted in the world, associated
with reliability and security. But that said, if you asked most people what Visa does, they
could not actually articulate it. Visa does not extend credit. They do not issue cards.
They do not work directly with merchants. They do not work directly with consumers.
They are not a bank or a financial institution. They don't ever bear any risk. They are merely
a network, connecting banks to other banks. David, it is insane.
This is such an insane story. I can't believe we're all the way in Season 13, and we haven't
talked about this company yet. But as we will get into, it's always been overlooked and
underrated.
Well, perhaps not underrated the last decade or so. If you listeners want to know every
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Come talk about this episode with us after listening at acquired.fm slash slack. And
if you want more from David and I outside of these big, long, main Acquired episodes,
check out ACQ2, our interviews on a second podcast feed. Now, without further ado, this
show is not investment advice. David and I may have investments in the companies we discuss,
and this show is for informational and entertainment purposes only. David Rosenthal, where are
we starting today?
Well, we are starting actually with a big thank you to Dave Stearns, author of what
is undeniably the very best book on Visa and its history, Electronic Value Exchange. And
we owe a thank you to Dave both for writing the book and for talking to us as we researched
and helping us sift through everything as we're preparing here.
Fellow Seattleite and the book, which is so wonderfully esoterically named Electronic
Value Exchange, was his, I think, PhD thesis that they sort of turned into a book.
Correct.
All right. Take us back in time.
So D. Hawk, the founder of Visa, who we will talk a lot about as we go along here, he told
this great story of how after his time at Visa in his kind of older age, he would start
his speaking engagements with a little thought exercise for the audience. He would get up
on stage, he'd hold up his Visa card, and he would ask, how many of you recognize this?
And of course, every single hand in the room would go up, as I assume all of yours listening
are going up now, too. Then he would say, okay, now how many of you can tell me who
owns this company? And every single hand in the room would always go down. And then he
would say, how did this company start? No hands. Who runs it and who governs it? No
hands. Where is it headquartered? No hands. It's just wild, as we were saying in the intro,
how important this company is. And yet still to this day, I think, you know, maybe a few
more people than in D's time know the answer to these questions, but not many.
Yeah, it's one of these things, too. It's like one of the only essential pieces of financial
infrastructure in the United States that has not run out of New York.
So our task today is to tackle these questions. And we start where some of you I suspect know,
but the vast majority of you I also suspect don't. We start in 1958 in Fresno, California,
with The Drop.
The Drop. This is the name of the title in this fantastic book, A Piece of the Action,
How the Middle Class Joined the Money Class. And it's chapter one, The Drop, 1958. The
Drop has become like, if you say The Drop to someone in the fintech industry, they're
like, oh, September 1958, Fresno.
Yep. And the rest of the world has no idea.
Yep.
All right. So what happened? Well, the then largest bank in America, the San Francisco-based
Bank of America, which formerly was called the Bank of Italy, both of which were total
misnomers because it was actually more accurately the Bank of California. It was illegal to
operate banks across multiple states back then, as we will discuss.
And the reason it was named Bank of Italy was it was started by an Italian immigrant
who wanted to create something for the underbanked Italians in his California community.
Yeah, mostly farmers and merchants in San Francisco. It really started as like the Bank
of the Little Guy. So Bank of America decides that they are going to mail out little rectangular
pieces of plastic to every single one of their 65,000 customers in the city of Fresno, completely
unsolicited.
Now, a couple of things about this. One, it's wild. I think the Fresno population at this
point in time was like maybe 200,000, 250,000 people. So like a huge portion of the city
of Fresno banked with Bank of America. And that was true for all of California at the
time. Two, they just send these things out. Obviously, these are credit cards. People
don't know what they are. They have no idea what to use them. Mass chaos ensues.
Well, and certainly nobody asked for them. There's this great quote, again, from a piece
of the action that describes it and says, there had been no outward yearning among the
residents of Fresno for such a device, nor even the dimmest awareness that such a thing
was in the works. It simply arrived one day with no advance warning as if it had dropped
out of the sky.
All right. So to explain how we got here, we need to spend a few more minutes on Bank
of America's history and the history of banking and payment industries in the U.S. more broadly.
So like we said, B of A was the biggest bank in America in the 1950s, but it was not like
all the other big banks at the time. It was a consumer bank. The other large and influential
banks in America back then were like the J.P. Morgans. They were white shoe corporate banks
based in New York. We talked about this a lot in the Nike episode. It was illegal for
banks to operate across state lines until much, much later in history.
So for banks back then, the only way that you could actually get big for just about
everybody else in the industry was to go the corporate route and to go the investment
banking route, because you could service very large corporations that obviously were large
themselves, would generate lots of deposits, lots of lending activity. The investment banking
activities around that were obviously very lucrative. That's how the J.P. Morgans, the
Morgan Stanleys, et cetera, the world came to be.
For the most part, consumer banks were kind of backwater, small. There was no way to aggregate
enough customers that you could get big enough.
Well, and in most states, they would have restrictions on the number of branches that
banks could actually have. In some states, I think Texas was one of them, you literally
could only have one branch. Other states would limit them as something like three. Other
states would limit them and say none outside the city. So you were sort of a bank of a
city. You could almost think about these more as credit unions than these sort of big banks
that we think about today.
California happened to be unique in that you could actually have branches all over the
state, and California happened to have quite a large population. So it was kind of the
only place you could pull off a large consumer bank.
Yes, exactly. California was already the second biggest state in the nation at that time behind
New York, but the New York banking industry was super fragmented because Bank of America,
starting as Bank of Italy with all these immigrants, had built up a consumer base.
They really were unique. So the business of banking is, well, banking. You take deposits,
you make loans, you make your money on the loans. B of A was doing tons and tons and
tons of small, little, and disparate consumer loans and lending. So obviously, mortgages
and car loans, like those still exist today, but they were doing like washing machine loans.
They were doing like buy now, pay later, but instead of on the website, you would go to
your local bank branch, you would schedule time, you would sit down with the bank manager,
and he would authorize you to go spend $150 at some merchant and make you a loan that you would
come pay back over the next few months in installments. And every single time that you
wanted to buy something now and pay for it later, you would repeat this very physical,
one-off manual process.
Yeah. And for specific items, to like go buy a refrigerator.
Wild.
It was just wild to imagine today. So you can see why for a bank like Bank of America that
is doing this at such large scale, the idea of a consumer credit card, well, it's pretty
awesome because you can take all of these disparate lending programs, consolidate it
into just one card, cut out a ton of overhead fees and make it way more efficient. So this
is what they are launching first in Fresno as the pilot market, and they call it the
Bank AmeriCard.
Beautiful name.
Beautiful name. And it would survive for quite a long time.
Now, this wasn't exactly a new idea on the part of Bank of America. Charge cards and
credit cards have been around for decades. What was new was this was the first time that
a bank had entered this market at scale. So let's talk about the history. Historically
in the US, transferring money was actually not that easy. You had two options. You could
use cash or you could use checks. And checks worked, but they also had a bunch of problems.
One, until the creation of the Federal Reserve in the 1910s, the parties cashing the check,
receiving the check, didn't actually receive the full face value of the check because there
was a bunch of work and like mailing stuff around, traveling around the country that
had to be done. And that was taken as a discount out of the check.
And this is super important. This thing that we have today, interchange rates on credit
cards, that was happening with checks too. There was really a lot of expense and risk
in processing checks when they first got started. And like, of course you would take a discount
out of the fact that you're taking risk and you're spending money to go and make sure
that this check that someone handed you eventually turned into dollars that you could have in
your possession. Totally. So problem number one, you didn't
get all the money. Right.
Problem number two, also a big problem. It took a really long time. Imagine, you know,
we're talking like the 1800s, early 1900s. This stuff was on the Pony Express, you know,
pieces of paper going around a really, really big country. Not ideal.
Yeah. And until ACH, where the banks would sort of all meet once a day and decide, okay,
how much do I owe you? How much do you owe me? In aggregate, okay, let's just settle
one transaction and then we'll figure out all of our internal accounting ourselves.
They were literally like check by check and saying, okay, I have this check. So you owe
me $6.08. Okay, next check. Oh, I owe you $4.20. And it was this crazy system of individual
couriers bringing checks from the person who gave it to the merchant for the merchant to
go and track down the money and bring the money back.
Totally. And spoiler alert, ACH doesn't get developed in the U.S. until the 1970s.
Wow. Humans, though, are quite ingenious creatures at solving their problems, particularly when
motivated by money. So there is sort of an obvious solution to this for merchants and
their sort of usual regular customers. And that is credit accounts, charge accounts.
Rather than giving me money or a check, let me just keep tabs on a ledger of what you bought,
what the value is, I'll tab it all up. And then at the end of the month, you'll come give me a
check or cash for it. I remember even me growing up in the 1980s, we had this at our local gas
station near our house. Really? We had a credit account. And it was just like, whenever any of
our family would go to this gas station, we would get the gas. And then we'd go inside and be like,
oh, we have an account here. And they just write down what it was. And then at the end of the
month, I assume my dad would go give them some money, which saves on operations for everyone.
It's oh, great. Now we only need to move money once we move it at the end of the month. And I
trust you because I've seen you lots. So from charge accounts at individual gas stations or
individual branches of a grocery store chain or something like that, it's not a leap to think
the next stage of evolution would be, oh, a card or account that would work at all the branches
of a given brand. So like the gas stations get into this in a big way. Standard Oil gets into
this in a big way. Lots of standard stations across the country. You can have an account
that works at all standard stations. Yep. In 1939, Standard Oil of Indiana
sent 250,000 unsolicited cards directly to all of their customers.
Yeah. Making the Fresno drop look like a drop in the bucket, shall we say?
Well, and interestingly, this is 20 years before. But again, this is not a bank. This is a single
merchant mailing it out to all of their customers exclusively for use at their facility.
Yep. So there was that phase. Then pretty quickly in a given local area,
some of the retailers would get together and be like, you know, we compete with each other,
but it sucks running these charge account programs on our own. We could collaborate and have a
standardized charge account system that we could share.
And just literally to simplify the back office as the first value proposition here.
Yep. And for consumers, that's also pretty awesome because do you really want to carry
around 57 different charge cards in your wallet or would you rather have one that would be like,
you know, your visa to everywhere you want to be? Yes. And not to mention on top of this,
there is the huge benefit of a shared credit history. Now, all these merchants who were
losing money on people coming and getting a loan from them in the form of, I'm going to buy some
goods, I'll pay you back later. But it turns out they had run up a tab all over town and
weren't paying their bills anywhere. Now with this idea of a shared card, you actually can
have a shared notion of who a consumer is across locations and across different retailers.
Yep. So this comes to be kind of post depression in the 1930s, 1940s in the U.S.
And this really is starting to sound a lot like visa, except as you point out, Ben,
there is a problem here. As the size of any given network of retailers that are
collaborating on this grows, so does the intensity of competition within that network.
So once you get to a certain scale, nobody's really incentivized to keep making this work.
A, because now you're enabling people to shop all your competitors. But also B, once you get past,
I don't know, a couple hundred, a thousand participants here, like our individual merchants
equipped to manage a network like this. No, they don't have the resources to do this.
Right. So you have to spin up some kind of like shared organization that all the merchants are
pulling their capital into in order to run the network on behalf of all of the merchants. It
gets messy. Or there could be an independent third party for profit network that does this.
And this is when Diners Club and American Express arrive on the scene. So Diners Club was first,
and people might know and have heard of Diners Club. It still exists today. It's like a sub-brand
of Discover. Totally. There's a very famous legendary origin story behind Diners Club,
and it goes like this. In 1949, you know, post-World War II, economic prosperity,
beginning of the Mad Men years in New York and Manhattan, a New York businessman named
Frank McNamara is hosting a lavish business dinner in downtown. Halfway through the dinner,
he realizes that he forgot his wallet at home. He does not have cash to pay for the dinner.
So he excuses himself. He goes to the payphone. He calls his wife at home on Long Island.
She speeds into the city with enough cash in time to pay the bill for the dinner. And,
you know, face is saved. His reputation as an erudite businessman is preserved.
And then afterwards, he's talking to his wife. He's like, oh, there's got to be a better way
to do this. There really should be a business person focused charge card network that would
work at all the restaurants in Manhattan where business people host dinners. So nobody ever
needs to bring their cash. And, you know, you could just imagine that, like, we're all in this
club of diners where anywhere we dine, we can stand up. We can authorize the bill. We can leave.
We can pay no dollars out of our pocket that moment. And we get one nice statement at the
end of the month that, importantly, we do need to pay in full. We cannot roll it over into a loan.
We must pay it. But that's nice because all of my business transactions are on one single
statement. It's easy for my expense reports. It's easy for me to not have to carry a wallet around.
And, of course, I get to look super awesome in front of all of my colleagues.
I think there are two really important points here. One, you said I pay it. I don't pay it.
My company pays it. You know, I don't care. Two, the most important point, I get to look super
awesome in front of all my colleagues and customers and people that I'm trying to impress.
I don't need to bring cash. They know me here. I'm good for it.
And just to start tracking a certain number here, when we were talking about
checks earlier that were getting a discount, and even in this era of early Diner's Club,
early American Express, we're talking about a five to seven percent discount of what actually
got remitted ultimately to the restaurant or the retailer versus what the bill was
originally that the consumer authorized. So all that's a very nice story,
except it's completely fabricated. None of that actually happened, although stories like that
did play out, I'm sure, on a nightly basis in Manhattan. The reality is Frank just thought
this would be a good business idea, and he was right. You know, you see this all the time with
networks, network effect businesses. This was the right little node of the network to start with.
This was like Harvard and Facebook because restaurants in Manhattan, they're competitive
with one another, but it's not exclusive competition. This isn't JC Penney's versus
Macy's. No restauranteur in Manhattan, no matter how good they are, really honestly believes that
a majority of their customers are only going to dine at their restaurant. Great point. So there's
some incentivized sharing. It's almost like the reason to enter into a bundle for your most
extreme fans, which are only going to be like the top five percent of your customers. Sure,
you want some kind of exclusive relationship and you want to maximize the dollar value you can get
out of them, but for your casual fans who like your business but aren't necessarily exclusively
going to use your business, you should figure out some kind of bundling system that makes you work
with complements of yours so that people can shop you and everything like you with the easiest way
possible, and you can still make some money on everybody. You're enabling people to spend money
in your restaurant easier and more frequently, and you don't really care that they also go to
restaurants because they're going to do that anyway. It's crazy. Like you said, Diner's Club
is able to charge restaurants and other merchants. They expand to hotels, airlines, anything that a
business person traveler would need. Seven percent of the gross bill. Merchants complain about three
percent today. Seven percent. And these are restaurants. That's crazy. Eventually, they have
so much power in what they're doing. This product is so good. They also add a fee for the card
holders, and it's companies. It's not individual people paying this fee. It's the companies paying
this fee. Of course, they're happy to pay it. It enables business. Amazing. Brilliant idea back in
the day. And we should say this is pricing power in action to have those very high fees. It's also
a necessity. The cost of running these networks in a previous technology generation was super high,
and it was not at full scale yet. So it's just operating with a bunch of restaurants and
retailers in New York City. So you actually need a lot of people, both because there's not a lot of
technology, but you need a lot of people even though there aren't actually a lot of merchants.
And so it turns out there's just a lot of cost in the system to run it. And Diner's Club would
ultimately fade, although it grows to over a million members. It goes national. It gets acquired
by Citibank, then sold to Discover in 2008. As we said, it's still a brand today. But it's basically
impossible to create an independent from the ground up network of this at the time because
you were just talking about the operational costs of running this thing. Think about the merchant
and customer acquisition costs. Nobody knew what Diner's Club was. They have to now go canvas the
entire island of Manhattan and ultimately the whole country and world and sign up all of these
merchants and go sign up all of these companies to get their employees to use it. That is a very
expensive sales proposition. Whereas from this point on, basically everybody else that comes
into the industry already has established relationship sales channels into one or both
sides of the market, which of course brings us to the brand you're all probably thinking about here,
American Express. Which is the Diner's Club of today. It's the favored card by businesses.
It is the card that is most used for travel and entertainment and meals.
Yep. And so as you might remember from our Berkshire Hathaway series a couple years ago,
Amex at this point in time was primarily a traveler's checks business.
That's how they started, right?
Well, actually, no. They started in 1850. This is amazing. Do you know who started
American Express? This is a version of D-Hawk holding up the visa card.
Ooh, no, I don't.
I did not either until doing research for this episode. It was started by a group of people,
two of the most prominent among whom were...
Wells and Fargo.
Henry Wells and William Fargo.
Amazing.
Totally amazing. Man, 1850, the Wild West, different time.
It was something like they started American Express, but then had a conflict. And so they
left and they started Wells Fargo after that.
Yeah, something like that. The infrastructure of America was getting built out. So American
Express, it's called American Express, it was an express mail company. It was like the
Pony Express. That was how they moved stuff around. And I think Wells and Fargo were doing
banking. And so obviously banks, as we're talking about, you need to move stuff around
the country. It was like a related business.
It's amazing. I think it's fascinating that Wells Fargo came after Amex. You think Wells
Fargo as this old-timey foundation of America, American Express is even older than that.
So Amex, by this point in time, had become a traveler's checks, primarily. That was their
primary business. As we talked about on the Berkshire episode, that was a freaking awesome
business. Partially because traveler's checks, they made good money. You would buy a $100
traveler's check and pay Amex a little fee or whatever. But the float and the breakage,
there's traveler's checks out there today that are 50, 100 years old that have never
been cashed. And Amex has just been sitting on that cash for decades, investing it. What
an amazing business.
Okay. So Amex observes Diners Club and says, Hey, we need to get into this. And we actually
have an ability to get into this fast.
And they actually try to buy Diners Club, but they can't get their own price. And so
they're like, Well, we don't need to pay you a lot of money because we can just do
this too. And like I was just saying, not only can we do it too, we can do it better
than you because we're American Express. We have relationships with companies. We
have relationships with restaurants. We have relationships with hotels. We don't need
you Diners Club. So just within like a year or maybe even two from when Amex launches
their charge card, you know, business traveler program, they sign up 700,000 members, which
is almost as much as Diners Club had signed up, you know, many years of working on it.
And importantly, here, the thing you're seeing is this is the first time a real financial
company is coming into the industry. All of the we know you're good for itness was
happening directly from retailers before or by organizations that represented retailers
and restaurants. And so now you sort of have not a bank, but a bank like entity that is
starting to say, Oh, this could be an interesting business.
So this brings us right back to Fresno in 1958, because the timelines match up exactly.
This is crazy. Amex launched their charge card program in 1958. B of A sees what's
happening. They, of course, had seen everything else going on in the industry before they
understand the transformative power that this can have for their scaled consumer banking
business in California. And they're like, OK, the time is right. Let's do credit cards.
Let's go to Fresno. But hopefully, as we painted the picture, their motivation and
Diners Club and Amex and even the merchants and retailers motivations are very different.
B of A wants two things out of this. One, like we were saying earlier, they want to
streamline and simplify all their wildly diverse lending programs. This is going to be huge
operational savings for the bank if they can pull this off. Two, though, the bigger opportunity
for B of A is what can this do for our banking business itself? Because remember, how do
banks make money? They make money on loans. And this is going to enable so much more effective
loan volume to flow through our system that we can make money on.
So this is where B of A, informed by their previous business model of lending to consumers,
really paves the path of what credit cards would become today. Often in the past, before the Bank
AmeriCard, what would happen is you'd have this charge card, not a credit card, and the bill would
arrive at the end of the month and then you would pay it. The innovation baked into the Bank AmeriCard
is they say, well, after the 30 days, you can get your statement, you can pay it in full, or
you can roll it into a loan. And we love loans. We would be happy to extend loans to our customers.
We can learn a lot about them. We can make good amount of money on that interest. And so the
modern credit card is born. And it was already happening at B of A. They were doing these loans.
This wasn't actually like new behavior. It was just a way easier, way more streamlined on-ramp
into this consumer lending that turbocharged it. This product is the combination of three things,
the charge card that had been happening over in Diners Club, Amex, the gas stations, the
retailer land. Then the second pillar is this consumer lending. And the third thing is it is
now from a real and proper bank that you already have your primary financial relationship with,
not from some industry association or hodgepodge of retailers, but now this is issued by your bank.
The big takeaway for Bank AmeriCard is it really bundled two different things together.
One was convenience and the other is credit. And there's one more really, really important
sub point here to what this loan is. And it relates to the banks and why this is so powerful
for B of A and for all banks. Think back to the old way that B of A was doing this.
A California homeowner wants to go buy a new refrigerator. They walk into a B of A,
talk about it with the lending officer, blah, blah, blah, a bunch of operational costs. Who
cares about that? At the end of the process, B of A gives them the money. The money is now out of B
of A's hands. It's out the door. The consumer then goes to the merchant and gives the merchant the
money and buys the refrigerator. What's happening now with credit cards is actually a little
different. The consumer goes to the store, the consumer buys the refrigerator with the credit
card. No money has left B of A's hands yet. They get to keep the money. Right. A transaction has
been authorized, but yes, they get to keep the money. And because we're talking about California
here, there is a very high likelihood chance. And I think at the beginning, I suspect a 100% chance
that the merchant also banks with B of A. So that money is never leaving Bank of America's hands,
which frees up more capital, which frees up flow, which is just like
the B of A management must have been besides themselves with glee about this.
Well, in theory, if they managed to put any sort of financial controls or proper risk underwriting
on this whole thing, but it turns out, David, as I'm sure you are about to tell us.
It's exactly where we're going.
When you mail 65,000 cards indiscriminately with the same credit limit to every single customer
and say, have at it guys. And this is a brand new consumer behavior that they've heard about,
or they might've witnessed in one form or another, but now they have a bona fide charge plus credit
card sitting in their hands. You're going to lose a lot of money at first.
Yeah. Because there's another more pernicious way that this type of lending is different than the
previous type of lending that B of A was doing. It's unsecured. If you give a customer a loan to
go buy the refrigerator, you don't want to go repossess the refrigerator, but push comes to
shove, you can go repossess the refrigerator. This whole consumer credit card land is unsecured
lending. So you probably shouldn't apply the assumptions about your loss ratios from secured
lending to unsecured lending, but that is exactly what happened. And this all comes back to why
it really had to be bank of America to start this program because they do this, they do the drop in
Fresno, 65,000 unsolicited cards go out to unsuspecting consumers. Fraud is out of control.
$20 million of fraud within the first pilot program, 22% of the credit that they issued
to that initial Fresno cohort ends up being default or delinquent, which I think is like
five or six times what their delinquency rate was before on traditional lending.
Yeah, it is pretty crazy. So it's worth pointing out, we're talking a lot about credit and debt
at this point in time. And now in 2023, some of these kind of sound like bad words. And frankly,
it's because of the situation that the society has sort of like push Americans to, but it was
very different time back when credit cards were first getting started and when this sort of
practice of installment loans was extremely common in the pre-card era. So I want to read, there's a
great passage from a piece of the action that I mentioned earlier that I just want to read here.
Despite the denunciations, despite the free floating anxiety, Americans have always borrowed
money to buy things. If not from a bank, then from somebody, from a finance company or a credit union
or a department store or a loan shark for that matter. There isn't another Western country that
has relied so heavily on consumer credit. Between 1958 and 1990, there was never a year where the
amount of outstanding consumer debt wasn't higher than the year before. Years later, a Bank of
America executive could look back on his lifetime in the credit card industry and say proudly,
consumer credit built this country. Whatever one's feelings about personal debt is difficult
to disagree with this assertion. So interestingly, what's basically happening here is people are
using debt not because of this bleak, horrible time that they're in. It's actually because of
their optimism. They believe that the future is brighter than the present and so they're fine
taking on debt. And that is sort of what has sort of led us to today, where because the growth of
the American economy and the global economy has been so strong, people have always generally been
fine, or at least we exist in a system that teaches you you should kind of be fine betting
that the future is going to be better than today. Such a good point. As long as growth is happening
in an economy, a society, industry, whatever, you should absolutely use capital to fuel into that
growth. Yep. And that may not be true on an individual basis, but it is absolutely true on a
societal basis. Yep. So back to what I was saying about why B of A is so important. B of A can
absorb this loss. No other consumer bank at the time, if they had seen $20 million of losses in
like a set of months, they would have pulled the ripcord immediately. B of A, though, they can
absorb this loss, no problem. And they know if we can make this work, this is going to transform
our business. So rather than pulling the ripcord, they expand. They roll it out quickly across
the whole rest of California. Over the next year, all within the first year, they sign up 20,000
merchants in California and get this. Do you know how many cardholders they sign up in that first
year? No. 2 million California cardholders signed up using the card in the first year. It took Diners
Club years to get to a million. Amex was so proud in the first year or two, they get to 700,000.
B of A instantly, at scale, is the largest charge card, credit card program, certainly in America,
I suspect in the world. And that's one year and one state. This is like meta launching threads
or Microsoft launching teams. You can sort of sit back for a while and watch the innovation and
figure out what the very best product is that people want. And then you can go ram it through
your distribution channels when you invent one of your own. And it's even more than that. As we
said, this really was a big innovation. It wasn't just that they copied Amex and Diners Club or
anything else. They were adding credit to this. This was a huge innovation. So by 1961, year three
of the program, they're able to get fraud under control enough that the whole program is profitable.
But they keep that under their hats. Yes. They don't want anybody else to know about this.
So there's been all these newspaper articles about all this money that B of A is losing.
So many banks that had been thinking about launching a similar program abandoned it because
they were like, oh, man, we thought this was going to work, but clearly it's not working for B of A.
So people were shutting down their efforts. There was rumors that another bank was going to launch
in L.A., in San Francisco. And B of A had actually rushed theirs to market to go be sooner than these
other banks that actually never ended up launching because the market perception was that it was
such a gigantic failure. Here's a crazy stat. From 1960 to 1966. So this whole era is actually
a profitable era for B of A, but no one else knows it. There were only 10 new credit cards
introduced in the entire United States because they did such a good job keeping what became
a cash gusher for them quiet. But secret comes out in 1966. And from 1966 to 1968, just two years,
approximately 440 credit cards were introduced by banks large and small throughout the country.
Yes. And it is specifically 1966 when the secret gets out because phase two of Bank of America's
grandmaster plan here gets unveiled, which is maybe worth a quick setup. As we said,
this was transformative for their business in California, but they're the biggest bank in
and they have been itching for any kind of way to expand to truly be the Bank of America. Like,
why the hell did they change the name to Bank of America? It's not because they wanted to be
the Bank of California. So they're like, maybe this is our path. And California is only like
10% of the U.S. population. In 1966, they create the Bank Americard Service Organization
with the express purpose of licensing out the Bank Americard program and network to banks across
the country, across all 50 states. And this is the seed of Visa. But listeners, before we talk
about how the Bank Americard Licensing Association morphs into Visa, now is the perfect time to tell
you about one of our favorite companies, Blinkist and their new parent company, Go One, where David
and I are proud angel investors. Yes, Blinkist, as you know, takes books and condenses them into
the most important points so you can read or listen to the summaries. It's great if your job,
unlike ours, isn't just to sit around and read books all day, but you still want the amazing
insights. So as Blinkist has been doing throughout the season, they are creating blinks of our
research books for each episode and making them available to you all for free. You can find our
material for this episode, including Dave's awesome book and D. Hawk's memoir, one for many
at Blinkist.com slash Visa. Yep. And they have also created something very cool that I never
thought anyone would ask for from us. They created a page that represents David and my bookshelves.
So if you want to read our favorite books broadly, having nothing to do with this episode,
but like literally what's behind me on that bookshelf that I feel are kind of our trophies
from all the episodes that we have researched, you can go to Blinkist.com slash acquired and look
at Ben and David's bookshelf and you can get those for free. So beyond that, Blinkist is always giving
acquired listeners an exclusive 50% discount on all their premium content, which is really great
stuff. All these summaries and especially the audio summaries of really important books.
Yeah. So many of you may be wondering why is Blinkist giving such an awesome deal to the
acquired community? I don't say that tongue in cheek. It really is. The reason is that GoOne,
where we're investors in which acquired them this year, is an amazing corporate learning and
development content platform that if you're a L&D manager, a team lead, or a founder, which obviously
many of you are, you should absolutely go check out. GoOne is the one subscription, one billing,
one stop shop to get literally all of the content that you need for your workforce at companies.
So this is HR trainings, specific skillset development classes, everything you need
across your whole company. They're the leader in the space. They're just an awesome company
that you should definitely work with if you are not already. Yep. Our huge thanks to Blinkist
and GoOne. Go take advantage of all this free content by clicking the link in the show notes.
Okay, David. So how do we get to Visa? You have been telling me about the BankAmericard from Bank
of America, and I opened this show saying Visa's not a bank, and Visa doesn't have direct
relationships. It's this big indirect thing where they work with other banks. This is a big mismatch.
This story is so wild because this first chapter that we just told, there's only one entity in
the world that could have done this, Bank of America. In this second chapter, there is also
only one person in the world that could have taken BankAmericard and turned it into Visa,
and that is DHOC. So here we are in 1966. B of A now starts going around to all the other
consumer banks in other states and selling them on joining the network as BankAmericard
licensees. And the deal is that you pay B of A a $25,000 franchise fee to get your franchise of
the BankAmericard. This is like a Wendy's or something. Plus then you pay them a percentage
of the gross transaction revenues. It literally is like a McDonald's. This is wild. I mean,
I get the executives must have just been throwing party after party because A, this whole thing
turbocharged their own business. B, now they're like, oh, we're going to make all the other
consumer banks in the country essentially into like serfs on our kingdom here.
Right. And one of the assumptions they made was correct, and the other one was too hubris.
The first assumption is a good business model decision, which is, okay, we've now created this
distributed asset, which is all these customers with our card that want to use our card at lots
of merchants. People still weren't using credit cards the way we do today, just treating it like
cash and using it for coffees and little things here and there. It was still sort of treated as
this is the card for big purchases, some of which I may want to finance and decide later.
It was also an intensely private thing, kind of taboo thing, right? Because when you were using
a credit card in these days, you were implicitly saying, I'm using debt to buy this transaction.
And so you didn't want other people to necessarily know that.
Right. It's a bit odd, but consumers clearly did want to use this thing for some subset of
the purposes that they did today. And so Bank of America is kind of leaning into it and saying,
we've got this asset, surely we can leverage that for great gain. But the specific implementation
of it was a bad assumption where they said the way that we can take advantage of the fact that
now all these consumers have the card and all these merchants out there and accept the card
is this weird franchising thing. Well, the bad assumption was that
other banks would consent to basically being serfs in their kingdom.
Yes. But at the outset,
these other banks see the power and now that B of A is telling them of what this has done for B of A
and they're like, wow, this is already the biggest charge card credit network in America, if not the
world, we can now bring this to our state. And I think B of A offers exclusivity to banks in geographic
areas too to start. That eventually, of course, gets dropped, but it does tempt a lot of people.
So within two years, by 1968, a couple hundred banks have signed up. There are 6 million card
holders across the country and beyond the country. Actually, Barclays Bank in the UK
had signed up to be a franchisee of Bank of America back in the day.
Whoa, what year is this? This is like in the mid 60s.
Whoa, that's way earlier than I realized for international expansion.
Yeah, it was already out of the US because the system is a great system. But as this expands
beyond B of A, it becomes clear that a bunch of stuff that were either just assumptions or ways
of business within B of A or things they didn't have to worry about ain't going to scale to
hundreds of banks, all 50 states, multiple countries around the world. One of the examples
I alluded to this earlier, in California, in the Bank of America owned and operated Bank
AmeriCard system, usually all parties in the transaction were Bank of America customers.
So there wasn't really any difference between the bank of the consumer, the cardholder,
and the bank of the merchant. And B of A controlled both sides. Once they expand the
network and let other banks in, all of a sudden, that's almost never the case.
Right. B of A realized the cardinal sin of many entrepreneurs, which is my particular situation
is actually not a pattern of several other customers. It's actually an end of one.
I'm idiosyncratic. So when I'm just making the same assumptions about all the future customers
about serving my own needs, that's actually a false assumption.
Yep. So B of A has no distinction between what ultimately now in the Visa network and MasterCard
and others is called issuing banks. These are the banks that give the cards to the customers
and merchant banks that are the banks of the merchants. It's all just one for B of A.
Yes. And these merchant banks, we'll come back to some of this terminology later,
has gone on to become the acquiring bank because this is the
bank that acquires the merchant relationship as a customer.
So now in this new world where there's different banks on each side of the transaction,
this creates the need for a network and operational services to settle those transactions.
This comes to be known as interchange and interchange fees are obviously what Visa does today.
Yeah. And this is the first moment that we start to see a departure
from what American Express was doing. The original BankAmericard was very similar to
American Express and Diners Club, where they were closed loop systems. It was a bank that issued a
card to be used at a payment terminal that all stayed within the bank's closed loop network.
And now with this new BankAmericard licensee system that they're starting to develop here
that would become Visa, it's an open loop system. It's, hey, there's one bank on one side who owns
the customer, who owns the cardholder, and one bank on another side. And we're going to enable
those systems to talk to each other, but they're not the same party. This is open loop now.
So this interchange thing, all of the other banks that are now signing up to become
B of A franchisees for the BankAmericard system, they come to B of A and they're like,
hey, this whole thing is a problem. Bank of America isn't providing any service to do this.
There are also all these costs that these other banks are incurring because they need to figure
out this interchange thing. Oh, so the problem they're experiencing is like, hey, Bank of America,
how did you build all the technology to do this? And Bank of America's response is like,
we didn't have that problem because in our corner of the world, we're the bank on both sides.
Right. We're closed loop. So I don't know. You guys figure it out. This sounds like a you problem,
not a me problem. I see. So when these banks are coming to Bank of America,
they're not actually complaining about price in any way. They're literally just saying,
how do you solve this problem? No, I don't think price was an issue. I think it was this and like
a set of other things along these lines where the franchisees were like, hey, we signed up for a
franchise. You operate the whole system, right? And Bank of America was like, no, no, no,
we sold you a marketing system. I see. So it's like, you know, you buy McDonald's franchise
and they ship you some golden arches and they're like, good luck figuring out how to make cheese
burgers. That is exactly right. Okay. Now, to be somewhat fair to Bank of America here,
the golden arches are worth a lot. The Bank of America card, three colored bands, the blue,
white, and gold are also worth an incredible amount here. And of course, the ability to
actually be on the network that sends those payments, right? Yes, of course. The network
has incredible value, but back to the brand and the marketing. So as all these other banks are
considering whether to become franchisees of Bank of America card, and some of them are like, no,
I'm not going to do that. Some of the ones who do become franchisees, well, really all the ones who
become franchisees become very frustrated. Of course, people are going to start competing
systems. And right in this time, over this kind of year or two period, a bunch of local geographical
competing credit card systems by various bank consortiums come together. Those pretty quickly
all merge into a national association called Interbank, which, spoiler alert, Interbank is
MasterCard. But at this point in time, Interbank is a Franken network. There's no common brand,
mark, visual identity for all of these cards. So now you're trying to make this payments network
operate. How do you as a consumer know that my card that I got from XYZ, you know, I don't know,
Bank of Illinois, that's part of the Interbank network, supposedly. Now I go somewhere, I've
that card, it looks like one thing. I'm looking at this store, at this restaurant or whatever,
they've got a thing on the door that says they take something that looks totally different.
I don't know that this is going to work, even though it actually might work because it's part
of the MasterCard Interbank network. I see. It's like when I'm trying to figure out, like,
I have to keep pulling up Alaska Airlines partner network to figure out what international airline
I should fly since I pay no attention to anything other than, well, it's Alaska, you know,
is it one world? I don't, I still don't even know what the one world. Yeah. Yeah. And, you know,
that's today with the internet, you can do that. Back in the 1960s, there's literally no way for a
prospective customer of a merchant to know by looking at their card and looking at the sign
on the door, if that card is going to be accepted, unless they all have the same brand and mark.
It's so funny. This is the original problem of Diners Club, too, because Diners Club, they,
I think it was Diners Club that originally shipped a little folded thing that fit in your wallet with
the card. That was a little booklet that was a list of all the merchants. So you could literally
know if the card would be accepted at the restaurant you're at. That's right. But now,
like the scale that these networks are starting to be at, like, obviously, that's not tenable.
So back to the mark, what these franchisees are buying from Bank of America and what Bank of
America is like, hey, this is what we're selling you. It has value. It's access to the network,
but the network is homogenous. It all is the Bank of America name, brand, and importantly,
mark. So what are the colors of Visa? I'm sure everybody listening probably around the world
knows this. It's blue, white, and gold. Which is the hills of California, right?
There's this amazing origin story to this. It's super reminiscent to the Windows XP Bliss wallpaper,
you know, that is the most viewed photo in the world. You know, the hills. It's actually in
Sonoma, California. Huh. So the story is the B of A team, when they were first rolling out the
program, the guy tasked with card design, he lived in Pleasanton, California, in the East Bay,
the San Francisco Bay Area, where, you know, it's pleasant. And one fine spring morning,
he looks out his back door at the local hillside. The sky is this beautiful blue with white puffy
clouds, very much like the Windows XP Bliss background. And the hill is covered with
beautiful golden colored California poppies in bloom. He rushes back inside. He paints an
abstracted version of his beautiful hillside. Voila, the three bands, blue, white, gold,
Bank AmeriCard, Visa. And this would go on to be incredibly valuable to plaster on your storefront
and say, we accept Bank AmeriCard here. And that just means your sales are going to go up. Friction
to purchase goods goes down. Customers are excited to spend with you because their shiny, cool thing
that they like spending money on works there. And it's good for your business to be able to accept
it. It's so wild that today, you know, we would think, oh, what's a moat? What's a competitive
advantage? What's durable? You know, you need technology advantage. You know, even how we
think of brand, all the companies we've covered on the show, it's so much more than this, but it was
so simple back in the day. It was just, could you create a two-sided network where there was a common
signal of acceptance? Yep. So from B of A's perspective, they're like, yeah, we did all
the work. We created this. This is what you are franchising from us. Take it or leave it.
From the franchisee's perspective, as we were talking about, they're like, you gave us a
marketing program. How do we run this damn thing? Okay. So they got this marketing program. How did
it literally work? Because this is pre-magnetic stripe. Yeah. There's no technology here. I mean,
this is literally like, cool. I've become a Bank of America licensee. What transactions does that
let me do? And how does that happen? So the banks, they have to resort all the way back to how
checks worked back in like the, you know, 1800s, early 1900s in the U.S. where it was all
decentralized. The bank would go sign up a merchant in their local town. Yep. And the banks would take
the sales drafts from their merchants that the merchants had brought to them. And then they would
kind of individually decentralized mail around the country to the issuing banks, the cardholder banks
to get the money. And they just, the way they've financed all this was a discount fee, just like
checks back in the day. Like, oh, hey, this sales draft is for $100. This is all really hard to
figure out. So like, okay, you give me $97 instead, or you give me $90 instead. And there was no
standardization. It wasn't like a set discount fee. It was just whatever they negotiated with
one another. So the sales drafts get handed to the licensee. So you've got, let's say you're
running a department store and keep going with the Illinois example that you said. So you're
running a Chicago department store. After a whole day of sales, you've got a bunch of sales drafts
where you say, all these customers came in with BankAmericard. They said they're good for the
money. So I gave them the goods. And now I'm holding the sales drafts. I actually have no
idea if they were good for the money. But the fact that I have a sales draft and the fact that
I, the merchant, have a contract with a bank and that bank has a contract with Bank of America
means that I feel very good that I'm going to get my, you know, 93 cents on the dollar or whatever.
So then the bank is responsible, probably. Yeah. So the merchant bank, that acquiring bank,
mails all those effectively invoices to all the other banks that the people who bought the goods
there to their banks with their cards. And there was no standardized discount.
Ah, this is ludicrously expensive. Totally. I mean, it's chaos. People are so pissed. And again,
B of A is like, yeah, whatever. Yeah, whatever. For us, we just moved a few numbers internally.
We actually didn't have to do any of this. And you all are paying us now money. So like
our empire dreams are coming true. Wow. This is maybe painting Bank of America into
poor light. You know, like I said, nobody knew this is the first time that a banking
charge card credit card system is operating at scale in the country. And even though Bank of
America had been operating for a couple of years internally to B of A in California,
now it's going across state lines. This had never been a problem before, you know,
the merchant banks versus the consumer banks, the issuing banks, et cetera.
Right. So all of these tensions come to a head in October 1968, when the licensees,
all the franchisees of Bank of America, all these other banks across the country,
they demand a summit. They need to air their grievances with, you know, the parent with Bank
of America. This is untenable. We can't operate like this. We got to fix this. B of A says, OK,
fine. We'll all get together in Columbus, Ohio. Really? You didn't know this? No. I thought you
knew this. Yeah. Columbus, Ohio. Ohio State. Oh, wow. Amazing. This is where the birth of Visa
happens. So the summit gets organized. And for the franchisee banks, this is sort of becoming
existential for their businesses. They're racking up such huge losses. This is such chaos. They're
sending senior representatives from the banks, everybody running their card programs. Everybody's
converging in Columbus. B of A sends to like mid-level marketing managers to go face the
angry mob. None of the senior executives from B of A could be bothered enough to go deal with this.
Wow. Which just says everything. And these poor guys who show up, I mean, they are literally
facing pitchforks. The franchisees are incensed. And they're incensed both because the situation
sucks and they're like, God damn it, B of A, take us seriously. You have meddled in our entire
businesses. This is in chaos. We got to fix this. So what do these two poor B of A guys do?
Right before lunch on the second day, they're like, yo, we got to save our skins. We got to
get out of here. Let's do the smart thing to make sure that everybody gets placated,
but nothing actually happens because they don't have any authorization from Bank of America to
do anything. They're just the people sent to face the mob. Let's appoint a committee
of licensees to quote, unquote, investigate all of the operating problems and report back to us.
You know, they can come out to San Francisco. They can meet us at B of A headquarters and we'll
listen to their problems. Wow. But unfortunately for their goals, their very narrow goals that
particular morning, but very, very fortunately for all involved, the franchisees, the world,
consumers. In the long term, at least. In the long term and also Bank of America in the long term.
One of the people that gets put on that committee is the Bank of America franchisee program manager
from a small bank in Seattle, the Seattle National Bank of Commerce, which would go on to become
Rainier Bank. And then ironically, do you know what happened to Rainier Bank? You can't make
this stuff up. No, I don't, but I can guess where this is going. Yep. Once interstate banking
regulations get loosened up, they get acquired by Bank of America, of course, in the 1990s.
But for the moment, the person running their Bank of America card franchisee program is one D.
Hawk. And I think you could really say on this day, the founder of Visa.
And one of the most interesting characters in anything we've ever studied, because he's not
a tycoon the way that most of these people are. No. And we're gonna talk much more about D in a
minute, but just to keep the story going so we don't leave you all in suspense on this day.
During the lunch break, D has gotten put on this committee. He goes up to the two B of A guys and
he's like, hey, rather than us just putting together a list of grievances and reporting
back to you at B of A, what if instead we do examine all the problems in this system?
But what if we ourselves, this committee, we design and propose a new way of operating the
whole thing? And after some convincing, the B of A guys are like, eh, sure. I mean, they're not
agreeing to anything. Their goal is just to escape the mob anyway. They're like, whatever. If this
makes you happy, if this lets us escape back to California, sure. And probably, almost assuredly,
I mean, this is a committee we're talking about. Nothing is gonna come of this. Yep. So the whole
summit reconvenes after lunch and D gets up on stage, not the Bank of America guys, and he
proposes this idea to the group. Say, hey, we've got this committee. Rather than us taking a list
of grievances back to B of A, what if we try and design a new way that the system could operate
and operate better for everyone? They take a vote on it. Everybody agrees. Mostly, I think, just
because they wanted to get out of there, go back home and away from this disaster of a meeting.
They all get on planes. They all leave, most of them probably thinking that nothing is ever going
to come of this. Certainly the B of A guys thinking nothing is ever going to come of this.
But D kind of thinks he just got authorization to go create Visa. Whole new system. And he has
no power at this point, but he kind of thinks he does. And listeners, now is a great time to tell
you about our next favorite company, Crusoe. Yes. Crusoe, as you know by now, is a cloud provider
specifically built for AI workloads powered by clean energy. Today, right in theme with Visa,
we are talking about reliability and some of those details of Crusoe's infrastructure.
So by this point, you know that their cloud is run on wasted, stranded, or clean energy,
and they can provide significantly better performance for your dollar than traditional
cloud providers. So how do they do it? It is a little bit more than just saying they put data
centers next to natural gas flares or stranded energy from wind turbines. I mean, that insight
alone has value, but this is insanely difficult to pull off, to build this multi-tenant architecture
at scale and implement things like InfiniBand with rail optimization. So here are some of the
things that Crusoe's team has had to do and why it required people with backgrounds in data centers,
oil fields, utilities, networking software, and manufacturing all working together to do it.
So one, they have to trench high bandwidth fiber themselves. And as you might imagine,
putting a data center in a remote location, that is not just magically next to an ISP that you get
plug it into and have redundancy. Two, rugged infrastructure. Not only do they need to custom
design the data center architecture to let customers eke out every ounce of performance,
it also needs to work in these locations. They initially worked with external vendors,
but they've now started something called Crusoe Industries, which manufactures a majority of their
mobile and modular data centers and electrical equipment themselves. And three is operations.
Things go wrong out in the field, especially in remote locations. And Crusoe has a fault tolerant
organization that is able to plan for the maintenance and repairs and manage the failures
when they do inevitably happen. So the team has deep data center operations expertise to ensure
that customer AI workloads operate seamlessly when minimal disruption, and they really do
plan for these things to happen and have great redundancy in place. It's so cool. I mean,
ultimately, this results in a huge win-win. They take what is otherwise a huge amount of
energy waste and environmental harm, and they use it to power massive AI workloads.
How could you do any better? If you, your company, or your portfolio companies could use
lower cost, more performant infrastructure for your AI workloads, go to crusoecloud.com
slash acquired, C-R-U-S-O-E cloud.com slash acquired, or click the link in the show notes.
Okay, so David DeHawk thinks he's got a mandate to go change things up in a big way and create
some big, crazy new proposal. Yeah, and he's not wrong. Fortune favors the bold, you know,
might you say? Yes.
So to say a few more words about why this is so hard to organize this group of now competing banks
to collaborate with one another, you've got multiple banks in the same state that are part
of this system. Let's take Illinois again to stick with this. You've got a bunch of banks in Illinois
that are now all part of the BankAmericard payment network, which is intimately linked
with their banking operations. If I'm any one of those banks, I would want to say like, hey,
no, I want to be the only bank in Illinois doing this. And okay, maybe there are a few others here
with me, but I sure as hell want to shut the door to anybody else coming in and being part of this
network. Whereas when you think about growing the value and power of the network, you want as many
merchants and cardholders in the system as possible. And the merchants obviously want as
many cardholders as possible. And the cardholders obviously want as many merchants as possible.
That means that you need all the banks because you need all the merchants, you need all the
customers, you need all the banks. And you basically want it to happen as fast as possible.
So maybe if you only allow, you know, 20% of the banks in America or 20% of the banks in a state
to be members of this thing, eventually they could sort of bootstrap the whole network. But
it takes a lot of time to go door to door to door to door. And maybe that particular merchant doesn't
want to take on a second banking relationship. They already have one. They're good.
Totally. This is a classic two-sided network. You want to race to get ubiquity as fast as possible
on both sides of the network. Yep. So as D goes off and reflects on all this, he realizes that
the fundamental problem is you've got this huge and diverse set of banks that both directly
compete with one another. But also, if they're gonna make this thing actually work, they need
to collaborate and work together. And that sounds like a really, really, really difficult problem to
solve. Even if you could do that, how are you going to get the DOJ to let you do that? Antitrust is
going to be an issue here for sure. But, and this is D, he's like, okay, if though, if we could do
this, what is the opportunity? Well, we've seen what the opportunity is for Bank of America. That
is the shining case study. So at a minimum, this could do for all the other banks in the world,
what it has done for Bank of America. But even more than that though, Bank of America was trying
to stretch here. They got greedy to a certain extent in franchising this out to other banks.
But other banks signed up for this and they were willing to pay both a franchise fee and a
percentage of transaction volume to Bank of America because the siren song, the reward of
doing this was so great to them. And frankly, all powered by the fact that this is what consumers
want. Yes, absolutely. So in a certain way, this is sort of, I don't want to say inevitable,
because this is definitely not inevitable. But again, in the thought exercise of could you do
this? The actual organization itself, like the network, would have so much value. You know,
if you could get every bank in America, and then every bank in the world, and D is thinking big
from the beginning, to be part of this, and you could power this global payments and credit network
and you were allowed to take a fee on the transaction volume for doing that, the value
that you would unlock and generate, it beggars the imagination to think about what this could be.
And if we could grow the pie enough, would B of A be comfortable not owning the whole thing?
That's the bottom line here. So there's this great passage from him in his book, One for Many. He
says, any organization that could guarantee transport and settle transactions in the form
of arranged electronic particles, that's what he calls digital information, amazing, 24 hours a day,
seven days a week around the globe, would have a market. Every exchange of value in the world
that beggared the imagination. The necessary technology had been discovered and would be
available in geometrically increasing abundance at geometrically diminishing costs. But there
was a problem. No bank could do it. No hierarchical stock corporation could do it. No nation state
could do it. In fact, no existing form of organization we could think of could do it.
On a hunch, I made an estimate of the financial resources of all the banks in the world.
It dwarfed the resources of most nations. Jointly, they could do it. But how? It would require a
transcendental organization linking together in wholly new ways an unimaginable complex of diverse
institutions and individuals. This is the opportunity. And this is what he essentially
takes to Bank of America. And now we got to say a few words about D because this situation is nuts.
D is a banker. He is running the Bank of America franchise program at what would become Rainier
Bank in Seattle. But he's an outsider. He's kind of a nobody. He's not senior in a small bank
in Seattle. He was raised in rural Utah, basically in poverty during the depression.
He didn't go to a four-year college. He only has an associate's degree. He bounced around in a
bunch of random consumer finance jobs on the West Coast, all of which he got fired from because he's
too insubordinate. He now walking into the boardroom in Bank of America, which is what he's
going to do, and standing toe-to-toe with the vice chairman of Bank of America and saying,
I think you should give me the Bank of America card program because it is in your self-interest
to do so, which almost literally are the words that come out of his mouth in that boardroom,
is just absolutely wild. Fortune favors the bold.
Fortune favors the bold. Importantly, though, fortune favors the bold
who have done the work to figure out how to align incentives such that a logical person will think
through and come to the same conclusion he has. This is the thing. Dee is an odd duck for sure,
but he is amazingly smart. He's basically all self-taught. He's incredibly well-read.
He started reading every book on his little farm in Utah that he could get his hands on when he
was seven years old. Super importantly, this is a Steve Jobs, you can only connect the dots looking
backward moment. He was not very good at sports in high school, so he got into debate instead.
And then he also did debate in college when he did his associate's degree. And so he uses all
of the techniques that he learned from competitive debate and persuasion. He has this amazing quote.
He says, during my years of college debate, I held fast to the notion that until someone
has repeatedly said no and adamantly refuses another word on the subject, they are in the
process of saying yes and don't know it. I mean, Dee basically is the prototypical
Silicon Valley founder. He's just a generation too early and in the wrong industry.
I once had a Silicon Valley founder give a talk at a startup weekend I ran 10, 12 years ago,
who said, until your company shuts down, you are just in the act of succeeding.
Totally. Cut from the same cloth, right down to every single stitch.
There's one other important aspect to Dee that I think we should highlight here that enables him
and all of Visa to succeed. And that's that he's about as far from the man and image of JP Morgan
as you could imagine. That is what enables this. Because if he were the CEO of another bank or a
senior executive or some well-respected person marching into the Bank of America boardroom,
and standing toe to toe with their board and saying, I want you to give me your very precious
crown jewel. There's no way it would work. Of course, Bank of America would say, what's in it
for you? I don't trust you. I don't believe you. Even if they did trust and believe this person,
they would lose all of their face and reputation if they were subordinating themselves to somebody
who could conceivably be their equal. So Dee's just gone into B of A with this grand vision of
you should give me this incredible asset because the value that it will create outside of your
hands and your fractional ownership thereof will be so much greater than what it could be on its
own. And miraculously, that works. Would you rather own a few percent of something that is
the default global way that commerce is produced, or would you rather own
a hundred percent of Bank of America cards? Yep. Totally incredible that Dee actually
convinces Bank of America to do this. Nobody in the world would have thought that this could happen.
But now the work is sort of just beginning because there's two things now that he needs to do. One,
he hasn't actually figured out how to architect this thing such that it works. So he's got to
do that. Two, though, then now he has to go back to all of the soon-to-be former franchisee banks
and convince them why they should do this. And this is a different argument from what he made
to B of A. B of A, he's trying to get them to give him the asset. With the other banks, he actually
needs to get them to change their behavior. He needs to be able to go to, say, the couple banks
in Illinois that are existing franchisees of the Bank of America card system and say,
hey, the new regulations, the new operating laws for this organization are going to be all the
banks in Illinois can join. And we actively want to go convince all of your competitors to come
join this system. I see. So he's basically coming to them with a waiver and saying, I want you to
waive your exclusivity to some territory because in our new construct here where we're all working
together, you and everyone else is agreeing that it's good for the value of us all if we waive
our exclusivity. You know what this is like? This is like back in our NFL episode. Yes,
that's exactly right. When the NFL started negotiating national television rights
collectively as an organization. Yep. A bunch of the individual teams hated that because they were
like, if I'm the Jets, I'm making more money in my New York metro area doing my own TV deals
than I'm going to get as a share from you, the NFL of a national deal. But in the long run,
it was absolutely the right decision and value accretive to everybody, including the Jets,
that the NFL centralized this. You'd rather be the Jets with their proportional share of the
$14 billion a year TV deal that the NFL has today than whatever their very fat contract was alone
in what the 60s, 70s. Totally. It is exactly the same thing here. Okay. So how's this whole thing
going to work? D and a few of his other fellow committee members, they go to Sausalito,
California, just north of San Francisco, just across the Golden Gate Bridge. And they do an
offsite for a couple of days at a hotel in Sausalito. And there they come up with a number
of operating regulations guidelines for this hypothetical new entity, four of which we're
going to talk about here that are super critical. One ownership of this new organization, that's
going to be called National Bank of AmeriCard Inc. The new owner of the Bank of AmeriCard program
is going to be in the form of irrevocable, non-transferable rights of participation.
So you're not going to own stock in this thing. There's no equity. The way that you have ownership
and the percentage ownership that you have in the network is by participating in it,
and the amount of volume that you are contributing to the network. Oh, interesting. So this means a
couple of things. One, it's sort of like a representation and ownership according to
value contributed. Two, it's non-transferable. So you can't sell it. Any individual bank,
if they were to say like, oh, this is valuable now, I'm going to go sell it. And then I no longer
have any incentive to participate in the network. If that starts happening, then it'll lead to a
cascade for the exits and the network will lose value. So there's no way to do that.
So it's basically designed for you to kind of break even on it. If you're putting in 17% of
the transactions on the whole network and you're paying in fees on 17% of the transaction, well,
good news for all of the leftover profits from running the network, 17% of them go back to you.
You're making the assumption that this is a cost only organization, forgetting the fact that it is
one of the greatest business models and revenue generators of all time. You are contributing 17%
of the volume to this. You are entitled to 17% of the profits. I see. That we are extracting
from the merchants and the cardholders. Yep. Because this is the natural business model
of interchange to do the exact same things that was being done with the sales drafts,
where you sort of give a discount to the retailer. And when I say discount,
I don't mean a beneficial one. I mean, I'm discounting the amount of money that I am giving
you off of the 100% that you would have received by the customer. Basically taking that old check
courier business model and carrying it into sort of a network form. Yep, exactly. So the actual
legal structure that D and his fellow committee members land on for this is a for-profit,
non-stock membership corporation. That is a mouthful. It is. There's a myth out there that
Visa was originally a non-profit and then was converted to a for-profit before the IPO in 2008.
That's not true. It was always for-profit. It was just a non-stock membership corporation.
And that was to get around banks selling their interest. So you don't participate in it,
you don't own it. So say it one more time. It is a for-profit. A for-profit, non-stock
membership corporation. Your ownership is your membership. Fascinating. It's like a co-op. It's
like REI or something like that. Yeah, yeah. The way that D describes it to all the other banks is
it is a reverse holding company. The parent entity is owned by the subordinate members,
as opposed to the top level holding company owning all the subordinates.
There's actually another NFL analogy here. The NFL doesn't own the teams. The team owners own
the NFL. Yes, but the NFL sets all the regulations for how the game is played and all the teams
submit to it. That's actually probably the best analogy for Visa as the NFL league organization.
I think it totally is. Okay, so that's point number one. Maybe the most important one.
Point number two. It is a self-organizing body with irrevocable governance rights for each
member. And this is, well, I guess also how it's like the NFL. Basically, this means this is a
democracy. Every member has a vote in determining how this organization runs. Anything that you
could conceivably have a vote on, changing our regulations, setting them in the first place,
budgets, fees, all this stuff, every single member bank will have a vote. And importantly,
every single member bank can call a vote at any time. I mean, it's literally like a pure democracy.
Wow. You can imagine nothing happening if everybody has the right to do that.
Well, they set the threshold at 80% for anything to happen.
I see. So there's a strong incentive not to call a vote and waste everybody's time unless
you really think you can round up 80% of the votes. Fascinating. Which in practice just gives
D all of the control and power of the company because everybody's going to listen to him as
the CEO. Point three, we've basically already discussed, and that is that the mission of
this organization is to facilitate cooperation and trust among competing institutions to grow
the Bank of America hard payment network larger than any one institution could on its own,
which is the pitch he gave to Bank of America leadership. Also, though, this is a implicit
kind of forbidding of banks in the network from going off and also forming or participating in
competing networks. So to borrow like a crypto phrase here, like no side chains allowed.
Everything happens on the main network. I see. So none of these banks are members
of Interbank at this point. These banks are exclusively members of whatever the heck
Visa's predecessor name is. National Bank of America, I think.
National Bank of America, I think. Yes. At this point in time,
a antitrust lawsuit would change that very shortly. I see. But at this point in time,
it's like, nope, you are part of MBI exclusively. You don't go join Interbank MasterCard,
and you also don't go start your own networks or peel off parts of the network. Everything that
you are doing in payment card operations needs to route into this network.
That's a big contract to sign. Totally. Again, this is why D needed to paint
the picture both to Bank of America and all the other banks. The prize is worth it.
Yep. And then finally, point four, there will be a singular universal set of operating and
governing procedures that, much like the U.S. Constitution, is infinitely modifiable by a
threshold vote of all members. This is the 80% I talked about. And two, also like the U.S.
Constitution to its citizens, all members agree to be bound by its law both now and as it is so
then modified in the future. So if you're signing up for this, you are signing up for the regulations
and operating procedures as they exist today and for any future changes that come,
of which you will have a vote in. This is a democracy, but you can't go leave the democracy.
Right. You're signing up for something that might change in the future and you don't get
to know today if it's going to change in the future, but at least you have some say in it.
That is exactly the pitch. And amazingly, even describing this now, having done all the research,
read all the books, written the script that we're talking about here, I still can't believe
this actually happens. Dee goes on like a tour across the country. He goes and meets with all
the banks. Bank of America helps him out. They bring senior executives to help convene, you know,
meetings with all the banks to persuade them. Every single member bank of the previous Bank
Franchisee Organization, every single one of them signs up for the new organization led by Dee.
Not a single person jumped ship. How many banks were at this point? Over 200. Wow. Isn't that
wild? I mean, once you get to like 70 or something, then it kind of seems likely that everyone's going
to tip. But in those first 20, the fact that nobody was out is crazy. Totally. And Dee writes
about this too. Bank of America helped him out. They identified the 13 most influential banks
and they convened the first summits with them of like, hey, what do we got to do to horse trade
to get you guys involved? And then you kind of spiral out from there. But yeah, every single
one, nobody jumped ship. And when is this? Like 1970-ish? The process starts in 1968. It all wraps
up in either 1970 or 1971. Importantly, we've talked about antitrust and DOJ a bunch here.
You would think that this would be setting off massive alarm bells in Washington and with the
Department of Justice. They get ahead of this. So Dee goes to see them and he gives the same pitch
to the government. He says like, look, obviously this is the whole industry, all the competitors
in the industry colluding to work together. That's the whole premise of the organization.
But what we can create by doing this would not be possible otherwise. And it will be so profoundly
useful and important to the American consumer and American businesses that it is worth you
letting us do this. So they actually get a letter from the DOJ saying like, Hall Pass, you're good
on this one. Wow. Yeah. It's just like the presidential exceptions for the NFL, like an
antitrust exemption where, yeah, we're amenable to the fact that you're collaborating, potentially
colluding, but it is actually one of the things that we believe will make the country better. So
go for it. America wants both its football and its credit cards. Amazing. And that was a key point
in then going and convincing all the other banks to sign up for this because that was one of the
first questions they asked. Hey, if we do this, aren't we inviting the DOJ on our backs? And Dee
is able to say like, nope, got the letter right here. We're good. Wow. Amazing. So very shortly
after this, after the creation of NBI, National Bank of AmeriCard, Inc. Dee in 1972, he's thinking
globally from the get-go. He goes and creates a parallel, similar organization of international
banks using the Bank of AmeriCard system. Visa was global from basically day one. And it wasn't
just Barclays in the UK. It was Sumitomo Bank in Japan. It was other banks throughout Europe. It
was Canada. It was Latin America. We won't go into all the detail here except one amazing story
we're going to tell. This was actually harder to pull off, if you can imagine that, than forming
NBI because it really is not clear for some of these international banks that it is better for
them to be part of the global network than if they could run the table on their entire country.
Say you're, I don't know, I'll pick Sumitomo Bank in Japan. You have to decide, do I want
to buy Dee's pitch of it's worth it to me to be a proportional owner of Visa? Or I could be the
singular dominant credit card network in my own country, which is more valuable. And for many of
them, they'd be right in saying it actually would be better to be singular and dominant. Like you
look at China Union Pay. I mean, that is the dominant way of payments flowing in China.
That was, for them, the right move. Totally. So once again, in Sausalito,
this all comes to a head. Dee knows that probably not all of the international banks
are going to agree to this and some of them are going to go their own way. So he calls a final
summit in Sausalito. They're going to vote the next morning, final vote on who's going to join
the soon to be Visa network and who's going to go it on their own. And Dee gives this nostalgic
speech at the end of dinner saying like here in Sausalito, looking out at the bay, this is where
me and my colleagues, we dreamed up the original vision for what this could be.
And it's sad that this won't be extended to the whole world and a true global payment
monetary system. But we're all gathered here. We should celebrate having accomplished so much
and had a chance at this dream. Just having the chance is worth it. He's really good with his
debate skills. And then he's like, so before we meet one more time tomorrow to obviously disband
this whole venture and have the dream just be a memory, we have one more thing for you. One more
thing. He's like Steve Jobs, a small gift of appreciation for you giving your valuable time
and effort as part of this global undertaking. Please take this little box out from under your
seats. Everybody takes a little box out from under their seat. They unwrap it. And inside
are a pair of pure gold cufflinks that on each of the two cufflinks, there is one half of the globe.
And under one side, it says in Latin, studium ad prosperitum, which translates as the will to
succeed. And the other side says voluntas in convienendum. My apologies to Latin speakers
out there that I'm butchering that translates as the grace to compromise. And he explains this all
and somebody from the crowd yells out, Do you miserable bastard? Because he just pulled on
everybody's heartstrings. Oh, and like he gets the votes. And the next morning, all the holdouts
reverse course, they all join. And what you can't make this stuff up. It literally happens. The
cufflinks are out there. You can Google him. He did this. So he's basically saying, Hey, whether
you voted for this or not, you're getting to leave with something saying, I'm so great. I had the will
to compromise even if you didn't. And you are the reason that you killed it. D is just such a
character. So the other thing along these lines that he does, which is just hilarious. Once this
is all set up this the international part of visa becomes first I Banco IBA and CEO. Shortly after
this, they rebrand the whole thing into visa, which we'll talk about in a minute for the board.
The board is huge because it's like all the representatives from every region from every
country. There's like 25 people on the board. D holds board meetings all around the world,
you know, different city all the time. It's a global organization, whatnot. He invites the
spouses of all the board members to come to each location because it's a family trip, you know,
and then he gets the idea. He invites the spouses into the board meeting itself.
Oh, what a nightmare. So 25 board members plus their spouses in his board meeting.
This means two things. One, nothing is going to get done. There are 50 people in the room.
Two, though, he needs all these people to behave well together and, you know, be generous and
gallant. What better way to make sure they're on their best behavior than to have their spouse
sitting behind them? Wow. So like, are you really going to act like an asshole
in front of not only your spouse, but the spouses of all these other global bank heads?
That's so funny. I'm gonna start doing that.
We should have our wives in the room while we record.
Definitely not.
Oh, amazing. Amazing.
I think neither would join for that.
Totally. No, they'd be like, no.
Okay, so how does the name visa come about? How does the sort of joining of the international
and the domestic?
Okay. Visa is so important. It's not just a rebrand. It has to happen once this international
organization is set up.
Yeah. America can't be in the name.
Yeah. Bank of America ain't gonna work. And importantly, as we'll get into in a little bit,
this is a huge problem for American Express too. The soon to be visa knows if we're really gonna
realize this global vision, we need a truly global brand and mark. Remember back to the
blue, white, and gold, three stripes. That's iconic. It works internationally. Obviously,
the name does not. So D holds a contest internally within NBI slash IBANCO to generate a new name.
And he offers a $50 prize for the winning entry that is chosen. And as legend goes,
there are so many submissions of the name visa that when they finally unveil it, D makes a big
deal and writes out a $50 check. Check. Why are they using a check? Made out to everyone in the
company, which is funny. But then they changed the name to Visa. Visa, it's the most incredible
name ever created. I mean, Nike was so great. This is like even better. You cannot have a better
name for what this is.
It's interesting it's in English. I mean, I guess it makes sense. It's the most spoken language,
but no, it's not just in English. The name visa in every, if not almost every language on earth.
And when you're traveling and you need a visa for a country, they call it a visa
in other languages too.
That's what it is. But when you are traveling internationally, when you're going through
customs in any country, it is identified as a visa. That is the name.
Yeah. The universality, it's sort of a presumptive close because at this point,
you know, they've got what, three, four, 500 banks, you know, and they have 16,000 today.
It's quite the presumptive close that it will be universally accepted everywhere.
The way that a visa would imply.
Just every dimension, the presumptive close, the implication that this is a global network,
that you can bring your visa with you when you're traveling to other countries and it'll work.
The actual definition of the word visa, that is your entry pass.
This card is now your entry pass to commerce, to experiences,
that it works everywhere. As you said, that it's universal. It's amazing.
Yeah. So the visa name, brand, everything,
there's two more levels at which it becomes really important.
They do something really, really, really smart. So we talked about the need for the universality
of a mark and why early interbank, that was a problem until they standardized on MasterCard.
They've got the three bands, the blue, white, and gold, and now they have a global name.
But all the individual banks, the hundreds soon to be thousands of banks,
they all want their own branding on the card too. So visa says, okay, here's the operating
regulations. Every card has to have the blue, white, and gold. In the middle white band,
visa logo goes there. Nothing but the visa logo. On the top blue band, you can put whatever you
want. You can put your own bank logo. You banks get creative. You can do literally whatever you
want. Banks start going around. They do affinity card programs with NFL teams, with merchants.
This is how you get the Southwest card. This is how you get the San Francisco 49ers card.
This is how you get the XYZ everything that they're a bazillion of now.
So in the blue stripe on the top of the top third of the card,
the banks start co-branding with the name of their bank and some affinity.
And this is kind of the brilliance of the visa model. They were like, it's open.
You can do whatever you want up there. Right. That seems good for us. We're happy with that.
Of course, it's great. The whole goal is just get more consumers and more merchants on the network.
So anything that's going to do that great while maintaining the universality of visa.
Great. We got the middle, you got the top, go wild, do whatever you want.
Wow. And that's how I end up with BB8 on my card today.
Amazing. Maybe the most important thing though, for visa really pulling away and becoming,
at least for many decades, the dominant global payment card network.
The name change ends up becoming this incredible growth hack because what happens is they're the
new operating regulations now that mandate that all cards out there, all the previous Bank of
Merit cards need to be migrated to visa cards. I think within like two years of this being
declared or something like that, some banks start to see this as an opportunity to go poach card
holders from other banks. So the competition within the network, obviously this still exists
because consumers now they know, and Visa runs a national advertising campaign. Hey,
your Bank of Merit card is going to switch to visa. So some banks in a version of the Fresno
drop, they start sending unsolicited letters to consumers who are already Visa Bank of Merit card
customers with another bank. They're like, Oh, Hey, it's time to switch over to your visa card.
Here's the application signed up with this. Nice of them to, at this point in history,
offer applications. I think a hundred million cards got dropped in the United States before
the government made it illegal to just start randomly issuing credit to people without their
awareness or asking for it. Totally wild. But because of this, a whole bunch of consumers start
sort of unconsciously switching the bank that issues their visa card. And then once this starts
happening, this kicks off a total arms race where all the banks in the network are now like, shoot,
we got to blanket the whole country and like preserve our domain and see what we can capture
from others in the one year between when the visa name change first comes online and takes effect,
which is in 1977. And the next year in 1978, the number of banks participating in the visa system
grows by 20% because everybody who's not in the system now is like, I got to get in the visa
system. By the way, this is the thing that pushes visa ahead of what was I believe then called
master charge. Yes. The inner bank had changed to master charge. They hadn't yet turned it to
master card. But in 1976, master charge was actually bigger. They had 7,400 banks. And at
this point in history, visa had about 7,000 banks. Master charge also had more cardholders,
37 million versus Bank of America cards, 31 million before they changed to visa. So this,
despite all the deck chair rearranging between the member banks, it was great for visa to leap
ahead of master card. Totally. So that was number of member banks goes by 20%. The number of active
cardholders in the visa network in this one year grows by 45%. Wow. Isn't that wild? So as you say,
they blow way past master card. Thanks to this, they're already way bigger than Amex because
Amex is a different customer segment, which we'll talk about in a sec. And this really puts them
on the path to becoming the dominant global network that they are today. Yeah. And it's worth
a moment on Amex here because I would have thought just like Facebook or WhatsApp or Google,
when you have this sort of winner take all massive network effect business, that the single
centralized player network effect would win. Why wouldn't Amex win with their closed loop system
where they own the whole thing end to end and can provide the most incredibly custom experience for
everyone on their platform, on the merchant side and on the consumer side? And one of the answers
of why this open loop system beat the closed loop system is visa adopts this strategy of the network
of networks. They go sign up one bank, that bank can go sign up 100 million customers or
2 million merchants. They get so much scale leverage on signing up just one bank that
this strategy makes it so that they have far more scalability than something like Amex.
Amex also is a bank themselves, so is highly regulated. And they're a bank by this point
in history, I believe on both sides of the transaction. So they're both a card issuing bank
and they are a merchant acquiring bank. And so in terms of scaling internationally,
you mentioned their name holds them back. Also, they have to become a bank in another country
in order to expand to that country, whereas Visa just needs to go tap a few banks and say,
why don't you go figure out how to grow for us there? So this network of networks thing,
the open loop system, well, it creates a little bit more of a kludgy user experience because
they're sort of the lowest common denominator of data getting passed through the network.
It's sort of open source versus something that's wholly owned and operated by a company or
a protocol versus fully owned application. Anytime that you have something that's more distributed,
you're going to be compromising a little bit on the user experience because you can't sort of rule
by fiat when you want to make a change. But it does potentially come with much better scalability,
which is the reason why Visa and MasterCard have become the dominant way versus the closed
loop systems. It's also worth closing the loop on MasterCard here, too. I mentioned that the DOJ
eventually came after both Visa and MasterCard and prevented them from being exclusive systems.
That does happen in 1975. And so this concept of duality takes hold for the bank's duality,
meaning they can multi-home on both Visa and MasterCard. In all the testimony and case with
the DOJ, Dee is obviously 100% against this happening. He doesn't want his banks to be able
to join MasterCard, too. But he also makes the surprisingly correct argument. He's like, look,
this would be a huge mistake because U.S. government, if you do this, you are going to
freeze the payment networks in the U.S. Nobody is ever going to develop a new competing open loop
payment network because now there's no more competitive vector between Visa and MasterCard.
We'll all have the same features. Banks will be members of both. They're kind of going to
operate in lockstep. The prices should be identical for both. All this stuff. And the
DOJ is like, no, no, no, we're going to do it anyway. Irony of ironies. Later in 1988,
the DOJ again sues Visa and MasterCard for being a duopoly and not competitive enough.
So Dee was right. Dee was right. And to this day, Dee has been right. There have been many
attempts that we'll talk about toward the end of this episode of displacing Visa and MasterCard or
inventing new payment systems. And like they never work or they haven't worked yet. Great point.
They're in the process of working. So great. It's probably actually worth sharing the Amex
thing. So Amex tried this crazy strategy in the 80s and I'm flashing forward 10 years here,
but they would basically cut their interchange, the discount rate that they were charging merchants
massively if those merchants would go exclusive to Amex. And this actually continued until 1991
for many of their merchants. And for Costco went all the way to 2016 where they had the
exclusive agreement with Amex. And if you were going to use a credit card at Costco,
it had to be Amex. But interestingly, Visa and MasterCard cried foul when all of their banks
were multi-homing and Amex, with their virtue of a slightly different business model, was allowed
to go and try to lock up merchants to be exclusive to them. So eventually the whole thing kind of
stopped. And you know, flash forward to today, all cards are accepted at basically all locations.
Yep. So this basically concludes the full Visa story. Like how did this incredible thing happen?
You know, we've answered these questions. Who owns this? Who runs it? How did it start?
We could end the episode here, but we've actually really only told you half the story.
What we've told you is all the incredible business, organizational, social, human behavior
innovations that Visa and D created. Yeah. As Dave puts it in Electronic Value Exchange,
there is a socio-technical aspect to this company. And we've talked about the
socio, but not the technical. Something that is also true and also I think really
underappreciated about Visa is it's also a technology company. And there is a whole
technology story in parallel with this too that enabled the Visa we know today. To D's question
of where is Visa headquartered and nobody knowing that, it's headquartered in the Bay Area. It's a
Silicon Valley company. It was started in the same place and time as Intel, Atari, Apple. The only
thing that is different about it versus those other companies is it wasn't funded by venture
capital and it thus didn't make anybody rich except the banks who owned it and thus were already
rich. But there's an incredible technology story. Yeah. Great point. All right. So what is it?
Well, that's a great question, Ben. And before we get into it, this is actually the perfect time
to talk about another great technology company and leader. One of our favorite ones, in fact,
Statsig, who has also built a tremendously powerful piece of infrastructure focused just
like Visa on reliability. As we will talk about later this episode, Visa never goes down or
basically never goes down. And that was a super important part of their strategy. But it is
extremely hard for most companies to achieve this level of reliability in their technical
infrastructure. Yeah. Building reliable infrastructure is a very broad topic, obviously,
but one easy way to improve reliability is staged rollouts. So a lot of times what leads to downtime
is unexpected interactions from new releases, which crash a component of your app or service.
By rolling out a new feature in stages, first to employees, then to an increasingly broad set of
users, you can test for bugs in a production environment before you actually launch the
feature. Most companies don't do this, however, largely because unlike, say, Facebook, they don't
have the right tools. Yep. Thanks to Statsig, though, it is now super easy to do this the right
way. If you're building software products, Statsig is the one-stop platform you need for feature
flagging, product experimentation, and analytics. The product just works. It makes it super easy to
roll out features in stages and provides data on the impact at every stage of the rollout. Statsig
is a critical part of how companies, including financial ones like Brex and also like Notion,
launch their features to hundreds of millions of users without causing outages or hurting core
metrics. Yep. It's super impressive. So if you're a startup, they have a generous free tier and a
special program for venture-backed companies. And if you're a large enterprise like those
companies Ben just mentioned, they have transparent and non-seat-based pricing.
Acquired community members can take advantage of a special offer, including 5 million free events a
Just go visit statsig.com. That's statsig.com. To get started on your data-driven journey.
Okay. So David, what is Visa's technical infrastructure look like and how did this
come to be? So everything we just described up until now, amazing, incredible, unlikely,
one in a million, but all it really bought D and Visa was the opportunity. Yes. To actually
realize what he sold to Bank of America and the other banks of a instant global payment network
that a large percentage of global commerce runs on, you had to build a lot of technology to make
that happen. And if you asked the question of D back in 1968, okay, let's assume we do this and
we put one of these soon to be Visa cards in the hand of every consumer on the planet. Do they
actually want to use them instead of cash and checks? And the answer to that was probably not.
Fascinating. Now they wanted to use them in specific use cases. Like Ben, you pointed out
when you want to make a credit purchase, when you want to essentially do what installment financing
was before, when you have any number of X, Y, Z other set of factors in the case of diners club
at Amex, when you want to impress your colleagues and your business partners, there were use cases,
but it wasn't like it is today where obviously you're going to use your credit card, which is
probably a Visa and maybe a MasterCard to pay for everything that you do everywhere instantly.
Yes. And to illustrate, we will link this in the show notes,
but there is an old TV segment from 1993, not that old, pretty recent.
Ben, I have really sad news. 1993 was 30 years ago. We remember it, but it's old now.
1993 to today is like the 1950s were to us when we were kids.
Not good. Not good, David.
Not good. This 1993 TV segment,
the news is that Burger King has just rolled out credit cards. That should tell you a lot.
Burger King prior to 1993 did not accept credit cards, or at least this commercial makes it seem
that way. And they interviewed this woman and she says, I think it's pretty sad when you have
to use a credit card when you go to a fast food restaurant. That was a view of someone
just sitting in a Burger King in 1993. And a second guy is interviewed and says something to
the effect of, I just hope it doesn't slow things down because, you know, they'll have to call New
York and then they'll have to do the thing. And I just hope it doesn't slow things down.
And it's like the prevailing idea is that cash is fast. Cash is easy. Cash is respectable.
Credit cards are debt. What this woman is saying is really sad if you need to use debt to buy a
burger. Yes. But even at this point in history, it was viewed as this cumbersome thing rather
than a convenient thing to bust out the card rather than, you know, like, I actually think
Burger King corporate crunched the numbers and they were like, geez, for the amount of time we
spend handling change, we just want to encourage everyone to be swiping the card all the time,
even if they're, you know, losing some money on the interchange.
It's crazy. That was 1993. I mean, yeah, compare that to today. And I mean, I don't know about you,
but I get pissed when somebody ahead of me in line starts breaking out cash and coins. I'm like,
oh, my God. Oh, what are you doing? So start us back. I think the last time we checked in on how
the settlement worked was around literally collecting paper sales drafts and then starting
to mail it around. Yes. So to get from there to today, three major pieces of technology
needed to be built by Visa. One was transaction authorizations. So when we were talking about
transactions happening earlier and the person in Burger King was referencing like, oh,
they got a call to New York and they got to authorize the transaction and all that.
We glossed over one sort of stopgap slash bandaid that Visa and other credit card networks
implemented around authorization. They didn't actually authorize every transaction. So when
you paid for something with a credit card in a store, all merchants had what was called a floor
limit. And the floor limit was any transaction over that limit could not be authorized directly
on the floor and say it was, I don't know, 50 bucks or something like that. Anything paid with
credit card under $50, it was basically within the judgment of the cashier to say yes or no.
And so everybody just said yes. I mean, the reality was this was the threshold below which
the banks and Visa were willing to say, okay, we'll accept a certain amount of fraud. Interesting.
And then above that limit, the cashier had to go call up the merchant bank, say, hey,
we got a card here. It's this number. Somebody's buying a refrigerator. Then that merchant bank
would have to look up that card number, figure out based on the card number, what bank issued
the card to the cardholder, call up the cardholder bank. Oh my God. Get somebody on the horn there.
Say, hey, I've got your cardholder, Benjamin Gilbert. His card number is XYZ, you know,
one, two, three. Can you look up his credit and, you know, he wants to buy a $500 refrigerator.
Can you tell me if he's good for it? Right. And this effectively would be like, have they
hit their limit yet? Yes. Have they hit their limit? The issuing bank would go look that up.
The person there, literally the person, talk on the phone to the person at the merchant bank,
give them the answer. The merchant bank then switches the line back to the cashier
at the store and says like, yeah, Ben is good for it or no, Ben is not good for it.
So you had banks talking to banks, people at merchants, talking to people at their bank,
talking to people at the cardholders bank, and then reversing the whole chain.
But importantly, you had a person at the merchant's bank calling a person at the cardholders bank.
Yes. Today, that is known as VisaNet. There's this piece of technology that sits in the middle
that eliminates that bank to bank phone call. And so this is a big part of one of the first things
that Visa builds. And that process that we just described, that could take like 20 minutes.
And it just didn't work outside of business hours for those banks. So say, you know,
now that Bank of AmeriCard is nationwide, soon to be international. Imagine you're trying to
buy something in Japan and the Japanese merchant bank calls your cardholder bank back in America,
closed for business, just no way for that transaction to happen. Wow. That's crazy.
Not good. Definitely not good. So D and Visa know that this is like the first thing that they have
to address. In 1971, right after NBI is formed, D starts a project called the Bank of AmeriCard
Authorization System Experimental, or BASE, to build technology to address this problem.
The whole thing actually started rather inauspiciously, because right after all the
approvals came through for D to form NBI, I think it was literally the evening before the first board
meeting, Bank of America comes up to D and they're like, can we take you aside? There's something you
need to know. Oh God, that's always fun before our first board meeting. And they're like, well,
it's kind of hard to tell you. We've been in secret negotiations with American Express for months to
create a joint venture together, Bank of America and American Express, that will create an automated
system for transaction authorization for multiple credit card systems across the whole country.
And we're going to do this. So, you know, D, if you want us to remain part of NBI, remember this
is Bank of America, the most important part of NBI. Oh my God. I know, you know, that part of
the operating agreement is like, you know, we can't really operate outside of the bounds of NBI, but
this isn't really outside the bounds of the NBI. This is a separate thing. This is authorization
systems. We're going to do this. And if you say we can't do this, we're out. Whoa. So not good.
And it's true. It's not really like they're issuing new cards or acquiring new merchants.
They're being a technology provider. Because they and American Express both see that, hey,
this is a really, really, really valuable piece of technology. D is of course pissed,
but what's he going to do? B of A says, take it or leave it. D takes it. As D then tells the story,
Bank of America and Amex go out and they try and pitch the other banks in NBI and
Interbank and MasterCard on joining the system. But there's all these problems with it,
and they don't know how to build technology. And the whole thing dies on the vine. Maybe,
maybe that might be part of the story. The other thing that happens is Interbank and MasterCard
actually get involved in the project. The whole thing then morphs into a tripartite consortium of
Interbank, American Express and Bank of America and thus by association NBI. Our old friends,
the Department of Justice start sniffing around and they're like, all right, now this is actually
collusion and anti-competitive behavior. So if you go forward with this, we're going to sue you.
And then they all abandoned the project. And this is huge for Visa because this means they can
build it on their own. Fascinating. So they do the natural thing at the time. I mean,
these are bankers, even though they're based in San Francisco and Silicon Valley, these aren't
tech folks. They put out an RFP to folks like IBM, systems integrators, you know, the Accentures of
the day to go build this technology for them. Go build a computerized authorization system for the
Bank of America Visa network. All the bids come back. And of course they are all way over budget
and way over time. So Dee says, well, screw it. We're going to do it ourselves. How hard can it be?
Wow. So in his very Dee way, he goes and he recruits the guy from the firm that impressed
them the most throughout the bidding process was a firm named TRW and a guy named Aram Tatoulian.
Dee goes back to him and he's like, I like you. You come work for me. Leave TRW. I'm going to
hire you. You build this here in-house. Wow. And I'll give you the resources. You come join us and
you'll build out your own tech team here within NBI slash Visa. Aram comes and joins and starts
the core of the Visa tech team. Dee gives him nine months to build this entire thing from scratch.
And to do this involves building a first nationwide and then ultimately worldwide telecom network
so that the electronic communication can happen. Two, installing computer systems in each of the
member banks around the country so that instead of the banks calling the other banks, you know,
this can happen over computers. Three, training the people at the banks on how to use these new
computer systems. And then four, maybe most importantly for the long run, building a new
centralized data center for Visa in the Bay Area. And this becomes the San Mateo campus.
You can see it right off of 101 as you're driving between San Francisco and Silicon Valley. It is,
I believe, still the headquarters of Visa today now. Huge campus in San Mateo where they build
the data center. Until I think next year, it's going to go back up to San Francisco when they
finish a new building. That's right. I think it's going to Mission Bay. So miraculously,
Aram and his new Tiger Visa tech team, they do it. They do it in nine months and it works.
So Dave Stearns writes in his book about this whole situation and about D.
D maintained that if you give computer people more time, they will just consume it. So he always
insisted. So it's so true. So he always insisted on shorter projects with uncompromising deadlines.
They will just consume it. They'll just consume it. Fascinating. Okay. So they build
what becomes VisaNet in-house. At this point, there's no internet, so it's all just working
over telephone communication. Yep. Direct networking.
Amazing. And so they're just operating the whole network out of this data center in California.
Yep. Now, importantly, this is only for transaction authorizations. So the cards
and the point of sale have not been digitized yet. That's going to be the final third piece
of the stool of technology that Visa builds. This is just when a merchant makes a call to
their bank saying, hey, is this card good for this amount? This is then the interbank communication.
I see. So how does the settlement happen at this point in history?
So that's what's next. That's the next big operational technical problem that Visa
needs to solve. It's like literally moving the money when it needs to be moved.
Reconciling the transactions, moving the money, getting everything wrapped up at the end of the
day, week, month, sending out statements, all this stuff. You can sort of think of the first piece
that we just described as the authorization as sort of the front end of a payment card system.
The settlement is the back end. The front end piece consumed a lot of phone time and people.
The back end piece consumed a lot of paper and time too. Maybe more time, but like a lot of paper.
Because you're effectively mailing checks.
And even more perniciously, as the network grew, and at this point in time, soon-to-be Visa is
growing explosively, the complexity of this settlement piece also grows sort of exponentially.
Every new bank node that you add into the system now has to interact with all the other bank nodes,
and so like this is a hard computer science problem.
It's an N-squared problem.
Well, it's a problem that is easily solved by computers,
but when you're doing all this manually with paper, this is a big, big problem.
N-squared is much worse when you're doing it with paper than with computers.
Yes. So what you really need to do this efficiently,
to bring it all the way back to the beginning of the episode, is a clearinghouse.
You need an automated clearinghouse.
And this is unbelievable.
A few people had referenced this to us as we were doing the research,
but I kind of forgot about it till the end when I got to this point.
And I was like, holy crap.
Visa builds an automated clearinghouse for themselves to do settlement electronically
over the network.
They end up calling this project Base 2 after Base 1, which was the first thing doing authorizations.
This happens at the exact same time and place as when the Federal Reserve
is building their own ACH system for checks,
automated clearinghouse, ACH, everything in the banking system.
That was built by the San Francisco branch of the Federal Reserve in the exact same years,
in the 70s, when Visa was building their own essentially automated clearinghouse system.
That is wild.
Now, I've never read anything.
I couldn't find anything.
I've never heard anybody say that they talked to each other,
that they knew anything about what was going on, that they were sharing practices.
I assume they probably didn't.
But it's wild.
The same place, the same time.
Solving the same problem.
Solving the same problem.
Which, again, the problem is this gigantic list of a whole bunch of transactions just happened.
People just agreed to make them happen.
And now we need to settle up at the end of the day.
And if you paid me $100, 500 times, and I paid you $100, 400 times,
what is the net that actually needs to get transferred?
And that is a far more efficient way.
Batching them up is a far more efficient way than transferring the money back and forth
every single time, but still can be a complicated problem,
especially when you have thousands of banks on each side of that equation.
It really is like the exact same problem that both of these teams are solving.
And with the same users, the same banks.
It's totally wild.
Once base two is done, and again, it also happens in less than a year,
that it's live and up and running,
average settlement time for transactions on the Visa network
go from taking a week on average to happening in batch overnight every single night.
Every transaction on the network settled every single night.
So the speed is super important.
This has lots of implications for float amongst the banks,
you know, like some good, some bad between the banks,
between the merchants, the issuing banks.
If you're the one that owes the money, you kind of want the payment to take more time.
Yes, exactly.
Exactly.
Also importantly, this is from Dave's book.
It ends up saving about $15 million in labor and postage costs
to the banks by automating this just in year one.
Wow.
And imagine if this were done manually today.
It wouldn't be possible to do this manually today.
No, you needed the technology solutions that they've put in place
to enable the commerce scale that flows on this network today.
Yep.
It is also during this project that one of the most famous
Visa tech team stories in history happens.
This is a good one.
This is in Dave's book.
So one of the guys, I think he was working on base one
and then maybe got transferred into base two.
He is thinking about the system and reliability is so important.
You know, this network can't go down.
He's like, huh, we actually have a pretty serious vulnerability in this system.
So he goes to see Dee.
The whole Visa organization, I think, is like less than 50 people at this point in time.
Wow.
Just wild.
He's like, Dee, you know, all this technology we're building, you know,
we've got authorizations running.
We're in the middle of getting settlement running.
Like the whole Visa network now depends on this technology.
We're providing the service off of one computer in one data center,
which is made out of wood and sits on a hillside that has dry grass
right by a freeway below a parking lot that is perched on a cliff.
And we're also about a mile from the San Andreas fault.
So, you know, we really might want to think about having
some sort of redundant parallel site, a data center out there.
And Dee, in his very Dee way, he thinks about it.
He's like, all right, let me think about this over the weekend.
He comes back on Monday and he's like, all right, you're right.
Thought about it.
You now have a new job.
Your job is to solve this problem.
You're marching orders.
You are to go move somewhere on the East Coast.
I don't care where.
Find a site where you can build a redundant data center,
get it all built and have it done within six months.
And invent the technology to keep these things synchronized.
So they are actually redundant.
Yes.
So now Dee is not technical enough to talk about that, but this is super important.
Up until this point in time, state of the art in the sort of fledgling data center world
was, yes, to have redundant other location backups.
But the way that it was typically done was you had your primary data center
that operated at full capacity all the time.
The backups were just like cold storage.
They were like dormant backups that only were there to come online
if you had to fail over from the primary system.
Visa though, and the Visa tech team, they're like, you know,
if we're going to go through all this trouble and expense of building another data center.
Let's use it.
Let's use it.
So they re-architected base one and completed architecting base two
to run concurrently across multiple data centers as like
shared operations running across multiple data centers,
which I think may have been either the first or one of the first examples of that ever happening.
Totally wild, right?
I don't know that it was the first, but it was definitely not state of the art before.
This whole data center world was still pretty new
and Visa definitely like through ingenuity invented a way to do this.
It's fascinating.
And of course, this is now how every data center in the world runs today.
Pretty amazing.
So that was data center innovation, which sort of happens in concert with settlement digitization.
The third big leg of the technology stool that Visa builds is finally digitizing
the point of the transaction itself.
And that requires both figuring out some way to make the cards
digital or capable of being read in a digital manner
and digitizing the point of sale terminal in the merchants.
Those Verifone, you know, traditionally they had a huge market share.
Well, this is when Verifone gets built.
There was no Verifone before this.
Yep.
This is huge.
This is the holy grail.
The base one authorization system, that was still only for transactions above
the floor limits at the merchants.
So, you know, above 50 bucks or a hundred bucks or whatever,
it replaced the need for phone calls, but it didn't digitize the transactions themselves.
So this is actually every transaction now is running digitally for authorization over the network.
Exactly.
Not only authorization, but just think about all the things that happen
digitally around transactions, the data, you know, everything.
This is the beginning of it all.
So the first step to doing this, as we mentioned, is digitizing the cards.
And that really meant making them machine readable.
So before this, the cards were just pieces of plastic with embossed
numbers on them.
Like you had to say or type the numbers into something.
And the nice thing about the embossing is that if you run a shunk shunk on it.
A zip zap.
With the zip zap or the card imprint reader, you actually can get the numbers off of it
without writing it down yourself.
That was a huge productivity gain when they launched the sort of imprint reader machines.
Yep.
So Visa makes the decision, they end up going with the mag stripe technology.
This is the magnetic strip on the back of still to this day,
almost everybody's cards out there.
There's a whole bunch of drama around this.
Citibank had financed a proprietary magnetic solution
that they were trying to push on the industry.
I think they're a bunch of lawsuits.
And didn't they try to like hack the magnetic stripe?
And then they did just to prove that like the proprietary thing would have been more secure.
Yes, but it was proprietary.
So Visa's like, hey, we're not going to pay you Citibank a skiff on everything that we do here.
We take the skiff.
You pay us a skiff on everything.
You pay us a skiff.
Exactly.
So they standardize on the mag stripe for the cards.
The next step then is they have to create a digital point of sale terminal.
Now, this is pretty far outside the scope of what Visa itself could do,
like mass produce a small, inexpensive piece of hardware
that needs to get distributed to millions of merchants around the globe.
That is outside their circle of competence.
Yes, we mentioned earlier and you alluded to this is when Verifone takes off.
So what Visa does is they create a spec.
They're like, this is the spec of what we kind of need to be created.
And they invite different technology vendors to bid on it.
Verifone ends up becoming the large dominant.
I actually don't know what their market share was or is.
I think they had like two thirds of the market at peak.
Yeah.
And it's pretty crazy.
They come up with this sub $500 device that can sit pretty easily on a merchant countertop
that already has a bunch of other stuff on it and not a lot of space
and get it distributed and installed at all these merchants.
Now, the merchants didn't exactly want this thing necessarily,
but the way Visa incentivized them to get it is they gave
merchants who used it a discount on transaction fees,
I think for a period of time for transactions that happen digitally over the digital network.
I see.
If you use this instead of the Zip Zap, you'll get cheaper fees.
Yeah, exactly.
Which that business model carries through to today.
I mean, the way that you charge a card massively affects the interchange that gets charged,
whether it's keyed in with numbers or whether it's swiped or whether it's an e-commerce transaction.
Totally.
One really fun piece of implementation detail around this,
just like with base one and authorization,
where Visa had to build out a telecommunications network amongst all the banks.
Now Visa needs a telecommunications network amongst all the merchants around the whole
world, the country and the world.
That's another whole step change.
That's like single digit millions of nodes.
Yes.
So what are they going to do?
For the pilot program, they work with one of the big telecom vendors
and essentially build it out themselves.
We're now in the 1980s here.
But they realized during this that there's this new
fledgling kind of consumer networking service out there called CompuServe.
And for folks who either weren't alive in the U.S. at this time or
not Americans, CompuServe was like an AOL competitor in the early days of the internet.
I think they invented the GIF.
Oh, I think that might be right.
Yeah.
So as a consumer, you would pay a monthly fee to CompuServe or AOL or whatever,
and it would be your internet service provider, but also like your email and,
you know, your portal to the web.
It was a proprietary internet.
So they somehow get in touch with CompuServe.
And they realized that CompuServe has this dynamic where they've architected out their
network for peak capacity demand, which is probably when consumers are home at night.
The rest of the day, they've got all this capacity that's unused sitting on their network.
Visa ends up renting CompuServe network capacity to send their digital transactions from merchant
point of sale terminals.
And I think this goes on for like years.
That's crazy.
I had no idea.
That's fascinating.
Totally wild.
Normally, you run into the problem where with spare capacity, where like the time where
people want your extra capacity is when you have none.
So it's kind of amazing to find two complementary use cases for the same infrastructure that
when one is waxing, the other is waning.
Yeah, pretty cool.
So now, finally, with this third step, all the pieces of the transaction are digitized,
computerized, fully implemented as part of the network.
This has a huge impact on cutting down fraud.
So like tons of fraud was happening below the floor limits.
If you're charging a $5 transaction to a card, it's just not worth it to the banks and Visa
to figure out whether that's fraudulent or not.
Now, because it's all digital and instant, they can figure out whether that's fraudulent
or not.
So during the pilot, banks and merchants that were participating in this program reduced
chargebacks to the system by 82% relative to what was happening before.
So it's just like a massive amount of fraud gets eliminated.
Which actually should totally justify a lower interchange.
If you're not paying for all the fraud in the system, then the system should cost less
to run.
Absolutely.
In many ways that, hey, we're going to reward you with lower interchange to install these
terminals.
Like at the end of the day, Visa probably could have maintained a margin and all the
banks could have maintained a profit margin and not lost any margin percentage because
implementing this technology lowered the cost of running the whole thing.
Yep.
Two other results from now having all parts of the system aggregated digitally.
One, this is what enables the modern payments world we know today.
You walk up to a terminal, you double click your Apple Watch or you insert a card or you
tap your reader, whatever, and it just works and it gets authorized and you get your thing
immediately.
This is the backbone to all of that being possible.
Two, though, for Visa as a company and Visa as a business, they are now fully digital.
They can scale infinitely with essentially zero marginal cost.
We will later talk about what an astonishing financial profile this business has, but for
now, just know that at this point, they got to stop spending money and they got to only
make every dollar after this basically fell to the bottom line.
This unlocks just like an unfathomably good business model.
Before this, some element of adding scale into the system required manual labor.
Now, it's all just ones and zeros.
Now, the toll booth is fully built.
It is a high-functioning toll booth.
It's an immovable toll booth.
It's digitized.
It no longer has a human sitting there.
Oh, they've got the fast pass system or whatever.
Yep.
Well, David, catch us up to today.
I will give us a bunch of information about the business today, some changes to the business
model, and then we can go into analysis.
But before that, I know there's obviously the IPO event that we want to talk about in
2008 and sort of how the structure of the whole thing changed.
But I think you've got a marketing thing that you want to talk about, too.
Yeah.
There's one more really fun marketing piece that I want to come back to before we move
on to today, and that's the Olympics.
A lot of people, probably everybody listening now, knows Visa is associated with the Olympics.
They're probably the most associated brand other than NBC.
But that's only in America.
NBC doesn't mean anything around the globe.
Visa is the Olympics everywhere.
So this happens right around the same time as the digitization of Point of Sale and the
Cards.
It's 1986.
The Olympics, for the first time, they are going around to companies and offering a global
Olympic sponsorship.
This is just like the NFL episode.
Before this, you could sponsor the Olympics in specific countries.
You could sponsor whatever broadcast, whatever television radio was covering the Olympics
in certain countries.
You could have billboards and whatnot, but you couldn't do a global sponsorship.
And there's no event like the Olympics that could really do this.
I mean, certainly not the Super Bowl, not even the World Cup.
You're missing a large part of America.
Like, this is the only thing where you're going to reach everybody in the world.
And up until this point, one of the mainstay, largest Olympic sponsors in America was American
Express, because this fits perfectly with American Express.
It's for American business people who are traveling abroad.
Olympics.
Great.
Amazing.
The Olympics, the IOC, goes to Amex to try and sign them up to take this marquee global
sponsorship slot.
They think it's a no-brainer.
They give Amex a sweetheart introductory offer deal.
You're the first people we're going to $14 million.
Amex declines.
Whoa.
So they had their bite at the apple and they missed it.
A couple of years before this, right as the Visa empire was being completed with the full
digitization of the network, D ends up getting ousted from the company.
I think, you know, if he were still alive today, he would probably agree with the characterization
that D was one of the most amazing zero to one entrepreneurs in history.
Not so much a one to end kind of guy, especially when the industry in which you are going from
one to N and your shareholders and board is all some of the most conservative financial
institutions in the world.
A lot of conflict starts to erupt, ends up with D leaving the company in 1984.
After this happens, Visa brings on a new global chief marketing officer, a guy named John
Bennett, who came from 20 years at American express.
So he and his team see that Amex has passed on this new, amazing global opportunity with
the Olympics.
They're also formulating the new Visa marketing strategy.
Up until that point, the marketing strategy had been mostly generate category awareness
for consumers around the world.
To the extent we competed with anybody, we competed with MasterCard.
So we positioned against them.
John comes in and he's like, no, no, no, no.
The path to victory here is not positioning against MasterCard.
The path to victory is positioning against American express.
Not because we want to kill American express.
We don't actually care.
We're way, way, way bigger than American express, but we need global ubiquity and adoption.
And people to get comfortable with using Visa and using credit cards.
Remember, there's still this social stigma.
That woman in 1993 in Burger King who's like, oh, it's sad if you're using debt to buy a
hamburger.
Which is so interesting because a signature piece of the Bank of America card since it
launched was that it is actually a charge card where at the end of the first month,
you have the option to turn it into a loan.
But I have never elected that option.
I hold these things called credit cards, but that's a misnomer.
I've never once used any credit.
And if this were certainly 1986 and still 1993, you would not feel that way.
You might feel that way about your American express card, but you wouldn't feel that way
about your Visa card.
Right.
Although I should say it's probably false to say I've never used any credit.
The bank does float you the money for a month, but they have a one month grace period where
you have no interest.
Yes, you are using debt.
You're just not paying interest.
Yes.
Which, you know, hey, that's a great thing to do.
That's an amazing gift that these banks give the world.
It's the American way.
So John had just started.
The strategy is use American express to eliminate the stigma around Visa and by association,
paint MasterCard as having that stigma because we're not even bothering to talk about them.
So how do we go after American express?
Well, the network is much smaller.
The American express merchant network at the time was about 25% the size of visas.
So they design a whole marketing campaign around going after American express and the
tagline of the campaign, you know, they show these exotic locales that the type of customers
who would be using American express, that they would be dining at these restaurants
or going to these events or going on these vacations.
And the end folks who are of our similar age, probably remember exactly the words here.
If you go there, remember to take your Visa card because they don't take American express.
So great.
And then the second tagline to it was Visa.
It's everywhere you want to be.
So the Olympics come up after Amex declines, John and the team get in touch with the IOC.
The price tag has gone up to $17 million just for the rights.
That's before any media buys, no advertising.
It's just for the right to be a global sponsor of the Olympics.
They pull the trigger.
They become the founding like global Olympic sponsor.
They spend another $23 million in media for the 1988 Olympics.
So $40 million in total on one global event.
Well, the two, there's the summer and the winter Olympics, but like one year of global
events.
That's about $110 million in today's dollars.
Yeah.
Wild way more than they spent on any of the technology projects that we were just talking
about.
I mean, yeah.
R and D costs money, but go to market costs more.
Yeah.
What's the line?
First time founders focus on technology.
Second time founders focus on distribution.
Yep.
And then the real kicker, they of course become the exclusive payment provider at the Olympics.
So everybody now coming to the Olympics, which is like a lot of people from around the world
that are going to the Olympics, the only payment card provider accepted there is Visa.
So they're training all these people that are going to the Olympics year after year
after year.
It has now been 37 years that Visa is the exclusive payments, global sponsor of the
Olympics.
They're contracted through 2032, so it will be at least 46 years where Visa is the only
card accepted at the Olympics.
Which that's not that big a deal because there's not that many people that go relative
to the people that see the media and understand the brand association.
Of course, of course.
But the reason we're talking about this, hey, it's an awesome story, but to the last
outstanding piece of enabling the global Visa empire, this last thing is the stigma.
How do they get rid of the stigma of I can use my credit card and not feel like it's
a taboo?
This was it.
Position against Amex, go to the Olympics.
It's the perfect event.
You're around the world, the type of people who go to the Olympics, the type of people
who use Amex.
They use their Visa cards and they're proud of it.
Love it.
So David, take us to the IPO.
This thing was an organization that was owned but not with stock.
A for-profit non-stock membership organization.
And now they're an enormously profitable public company.
So how did we get from there to here?
Yep.
Just about a half a trillion dollar market cap.
So the precipitating event wasn't actually the banks trying to get greedy and monetize
their asset, although they did monetize the asset.
They were monetizing it just fine the way that they currently owned it.
Yes.
The profits being spit out of the system were just fine.
In 2005, there finally was another huge antitrust lawsuit.
I think against both Visa and MasterCard.
It actually is a class action lawsuit that the merchants brought.
And they basically got fully fed up with interchange.
And every 10 years or so, there's some meaningful merchant push to try to change interchange.
And they either do it in Congress or they do it in a class action case.
You know, there's a variety of different ways.
And this particular class action suit in 2005 is still running today.
And the numbers have mostly been figured out of how much Visa will owe from a 2012 ruling
that then got appealed.
So it's sort of still going on.
But basically, there was a lot of uncertainty in the 2005 and 2006 time frame of,
geez, what's the liability here going to be?
And MasterCard had gone public and did not sort through this issue at all.
They just said, oh, we're going public.
And shareholders, yep, there's lots of uncertainty in our future.
And like, we'll see, but buy our stock.
And that, as you can imagine, did not go well at all.
And so as they're getting ready to go public for lots of reasons, basically, it was time.
They wanted to have some liquid currency that floated for acquisitions.
They had to be competitive with MasterCard, who was going public.
Amex was already public.
You can reward and retain talent easier.
There's just lots of reasons why you would want this thing to be sort of a standalone entity,
especially at this point in history.
And what they had to do was they created these B shares,
and they isolated all the liability from this class action suit to the B shares.
So while MasterCard had a pretty flubbed IPO, Visa had a great IPO because they said,
whatever the court's rule, the banks who own the B shares,
the pre-existing shareholders will own all that liability and all the A shares,
the new people who are coming in as owners of the company will be protected.
Oh, that's awesome.
I didn't realize that in the research.
It finally happens in 2008.
Visa goes public right as the financial crisis is starting, which obviously wasn't planned,
but ends up being great for the banks and probably for Visa too.
It becomes the largest U.S. IPO in history.
Up to that point, they raised $18 billion at a $90 billion initial market cap,
but that $18 billion wasn't primary capital to the company's balance sheet because
obviously Visa was incredibly profitable, did not need capital.
It prints money.
Why would you want to raise capital in dilute?
That $18 billion was secondary selling to the banks that owned the company,
which I think for many of them proved to be a total lifeline through
the financial crisis that helped them survive.
Yep.
I mean, now Visa is owned mostly by big institutional shareholders,
the vanguards and fidelities of the world, and the banks are much smaller shareholders.
Well, at this point, Visa's market cap is significantly larger than any of its former
member banks.
It's wild.
I mean, DHOC basically was right.
That's the TLDR on this is this thing, this information network that doesn't have to take
on any of the risk of any of these transactions.
It's purely about connecting buyers to sellers and moving information back and forth has
proven to be maybe the best business model ever.
And let's go through the shape of the business today and listeners, you can decide.
So David and I have made passing references to the idea that this is this ludicrously
cash generative business.
And I think it's time to actually examine interchange fees today, how they've changed
over time, how they flow, who benefits, what's Visa's cut, all of that.
So you can kind of understand it.
So Visa's business model.
The first thing to know is almost nothing has changed since the 80s to today on how
the transactions work.
So the authorization flow is exactly the same as it was where all the auth flows upstream.
The merchant runs the card, checks with their bank, who checks with VisaNet, who checks
with the issuer's bank.
Is this account in good standing to make this transaction or not?
And once they get the yes, then the response flows all the way back down the chain in the
order that ultimately the flow of funds will happen later on.
And, you know, within milliseconds, unbelievably short period of time, no matter where you
are in the world, no matter what currency you are transacting in, your transaction can
happen.
Pretty unbelievable.
Amazing that within seconds you can know for certain that someone is vouching for the customer's
money and paying in full.
Well, nearly in full.
Minus a merchant discount rate.
So what is this merchant discount rate?
There are a few things at play here.
There are interchange fees, and those interchange fees go to the issuing bank.
There are assessment fees or network fees, and that network fee goes to Visa, MasterCard,
et cetera.
And then there are payment processing fees, and those go to the acquiring bank, the bank
that acquired the merchant.
This is the merchant's bank and the technology provider of whatever they're using to process
their payments.
So three fees, interchange, network fees, payment processing fees.
Here's what those could look like.
And again, I say could because they are different in every scenario.
There's a very long PDF on Visa's website that is available with every different concoction
you could imagine.
So here's an example of a large merchant in the United States, so no foreign transaction,
accepting a credit card.
It is obviously different whether we're talking debit, smaller merchants, but large merchant,
U.S. credit card.
The merchant is charged a 2% discount off the sale price.
So it was $100 a pair of shoes.
You're now making $98, and what happens to that 2%?
So that 2%, the lion's share of it is the interchange, the 1.6%.
That goes to the bank that issued the card.
To the cardholder, to the consumer.
Right.
So when everybody on the planet is marketing credit card offers to you, they get the lion's
share of the interchange.
So they actually have a lot to play with in customer acquisition for their cards because
they make the lion's share of the transaction, the interchange.
There's a lot of costs in there too because they bear all the fraud risk.
There's a lot of things they got to do, but you know, they get most of the money.
A small amount on the order of like 0.2% or 20 bips for you finance people out there
goes to the bank that acquired the merchant.
This could be Chase, Fiserv, Wells Fargo.
This is, you know, the merchant's bank.
It is important to know this may also get split with a technology provider.
So sometimes the financial institution directly has technology that you can use.
But other times the checkout terminal or software that you're using is not actually
the financial institution behind it.
So that 0.2% can kind of get split between the financial institution and the technology
provider.
And those are folks like First Data and stuff like that, right?
Yes.
0.15 to 0.2% goes to the network.
This number is actually quite hard to find.
You read Visa's entire annual report and you're like, wait, but what part of the split do
you actually get?
And it's because they get it in a variety of different ways.
I would say I don't know if the Visa people would tell you this is intentionally obfuscated
or if it just ends up being kind of obfuscated, but it's not super easy to figure this out.
So Visa, let's round it to 0.2%, gets 20 cents of that $100 shoe sale.
But the cool thing about their 20 cents is there's basically no variable costs.
It's not dealing with fraud.
It's not moving heavy data around.
I mean, merchants are allowed to have a 20-character name in Visa's network.
Like, this is tiny amounts of data.
Stack as much metadata as you want on top of that.
We are not shipping around huge payloads here.
There is not like NVIDIA chips that need to run in these data centers to do any crazy
LLM processing.
Like, this is just shipping very small pieces of information around.
The payload size of the data has remained infinitesimally small relative to the amount
that technology has progressed.
This 0.2%, the 20 cents on the $100 transaction, very low variable costs associated with that.
So a few caveats on this.
Debit is significantly less in most cases and often thanks to regulatory reasons.
And the logic here is nobody's actually taking any risk to extend credit.
So banks should not get to make a bunch of money on debit.
It's literally just moving money out of your account and into the merchant's account.
So debit cards are going to be less.
Smaller merchants often pay closer to 3% than 2% because they're just doing lower volume.
And for these small businesses, the acquiring bank actually has to do a lot more work.
Think about how difficult it is to market a credit card to an individual.
Well, small businesses kind of behave like individuals.
So because the acquiring bank actually has to do a lot more work and incur costs,
they get to make more money.
So there's sort of this very interesting thing that has happened where interchange
is intentionally quite flexible.
This is a playbook theme that I want to pull forward.
This business is probably the greatest master class in the entire world on incentive alignment.
And I was talking with Lisa Ellis at Moffitt Nathanson, who sort of woke me up to this idea.
The interchange pool has an elegance to it.
Since the money never actually gets sent to the merchant,
the network and its partner banks or constituent banks can kind of figure out
exactly how it should flow in each of these particular types of transactions.
It's an envelope of value that the whole ecosystem can sort of play with.
And I think that's an important thing to realize about interchange
is that it's intentionally flexible.
Yep.
Which brings up an obvious point that we perhaps didn't highlight as specifically
as we should have earlier.
This network is actually a five-sided system.
There's the consumer that is buying something.
There's the merchant that is selling that something to them.
There's the Visa network in the middle.
That's the third party.
But then there also are the fourth and the fifth parties,
which are the banks for each of the consumer, the issuing bank, and the merchant, the merchant bank.
So this sort of envelope of value concept makes sense
because those three parties in the middle, Visa and the two banks,
they need to split up the value.
And depending on who is doing what work, it should be split different ways.
And Visa has created these products where, you know, it's not just a Visa card.
You might get a Visa signature, a Visa signature business, or a Visa...
I don't even know what they are.
But they basically have said,
why don't we come up with other types of Visa cards that just have higher interchange?
And merchants are like, what do you mean just have higher interchange?
Your new product is you charge me more?
And Visa says, well, the cool thing about higher interchange is that there's more money
in the envelope to play with to reward other constituents in the transaction.
And so let's say we want to tell the issuing bank,
hey, for this tier, this Visa signature, you actually get more money.
Well, then they turn around and say,
cool, I'm going to go and I'm going to give better rewards
to higher spending, you know, more credit worthy customers.
And then Visa's argument back to the merchant is, well, hey,
because we're actually taking more money on this fancier card,
you're getting access to customers that we've now brought onto our network
who are much better customers that you really want to have at your establishment.
And so it's this very interesting, again, envelope of value,
I think is the way to describe it, where, you know,
I'm sure the merchants wish they could be more a part of the decision process.
But it does theoretically enable incentives to be spread around
that benefit everyone in the ecosystem.
Yep. And for merchants of scale today, they're cut in on this too, right?
There's the Alaska Airlines mileage card.
There's the Costco card.
Like merchants are able to, by working with banks,
be part of this discussion too, if you're of a certain size.
Right. In the olden days, you know, if you're the Affinity logo
that got printed in the top stripe, the way that works today is
you have a special deal with the issuing bank where you're going to say,
hey, we're going to help you get more card members
by putting our logo on the card.
And so even though oftentimes we're the merchant,
well, actually what we're doing is we're helping you
distribute cards on the issuing side.
And maybe there's cool things we can do when those cards are spent
at our establishment where we give extra awards,
but it's effectively marketing channel for the issuing bank.
So they get to split some of those economics.
And I guess at the absolute very highest levels of scale,
you have something like the Amazon and JPMorgan Chase relationship
where JPMorgan Chase is the merchant bank
and JPMorgan Chase is one of the largest issuing banks for cards in the world.
And so the Amazon Chase credit card that I have
and I do all my shopping on Amazon with
and all my shopping at Whole Foods with
is able to give me 5% cash back rewards.
So Amazon or JPMorgan, and in this case, the two of them working together
represent three of the five parties in this transaction.
The only people not party to this are the consumer
and Visa, the network itself.
And so thus that's how they're able to do so much special stuff.
They can control so much of that envelope of value.
Yes, it is worth pointing out the system today
is pretty tough to change absent government intervention.
Consumers who spend the most love the system the way that it is.
A huge amount of the fees that merchants pay
come back to these consumers in the form of rewards.
So the issuers and the networks end up with the consumer
as their advocate for the system as it exists today.
And meanwhile, no retailer owns enough of the total transactions
to actually go invent their own better system.
So when merchants have tried to go and get consumers
to go direct and give them their bank account information,
typically consumers won't do it
unless they get some very high number of percent back.
And that's actually more expensive than the interchange.
The way that you end up having to pay your consumers
in order to change their behavior away from credit cards
that they love the rewards so much on
is to do something non-economic.
Like you have to believe that there's some long-term benefit to doing it.
Yeah. And famously, Walmart and Target too, I think,
have been trying to do this for years and years and years,
and they never can make it work.
Nope. And the reason is basically like
no one can ever figure out how to incentivize
all the parties that need to change behavior
enough to change the behavior.
And the merchant in most cases
is really the only party that is not thrilled with this arrangement.
Totally. I mean, the most negative way
someone could paint the ecosystem as it exists today
is that the whole credit card system
is a wide-scale bribe of the American consumer
to like extort the world's retailers
using the retailer's own money.
But that is like a very cynical way to view it.
Yeah. I mean, I guess you could take that one step further
and say consumers actually do bear the brunt of it
because merchants will just raise their prices
to compensate for it.
So that's a strong argument.
There's been independent research firms
that have looked into this
and basically determined that
this is a reverse Robin Hood scenario,
that the wealthiest consumers
are the ones who have rewards cards.
And because all the goods are marked up
to accommodate interchange...
Right. No matter who's buying, the goods are marked up.
Right. If you aren't someone
that has a rewards-based credit card,
then your stuff just got more expensive.
And so the research firm that looked into this,
actually, I think it was the Fed,
the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston,
determined that on average each year,
a household that uses cash to pay for things
pays $149 inflated prices
because all prices, no matter how you pay,
have to go up in order to make it
so that paying in cash and cards is equivalent
because in most states, it's actually illegal
to charge a meaningful premium
to people who are using credit cards.
So on average, a cash-using household pays $149.
Effectively in subsidy.
Yes. But a card-using household
receives $1,100 in value.
$1,100? I mean, I guess that makes sense.
I think about the value of the rewards
I get every year.
It's on average, what is it?
2% of everything you put on your card.
Yeah. Which, I mean, especially us running a business,
like, yeah, we put a lot of stuff on cards.
Right. That is the other argument
that this is, like, kind of net bad for the world
is that it's regressive in who it rewards
and who it penalizes.
The other reason why it's really hard
to change the system is
this whole thing is a chicken or the egg problem.
I mean, every two-sided marketplace
is a chicken or the egg problem.
Bank of America solved this
when there were no regulations
by dropping 65,000 credit lines
on unwitting Americans,
and you can't do that now.
So how do you bootstrap one side of the marketplace
when you can't do something like a drop?
And they were in a unique position
at that moment in time in California,
where they had such large market share
of both consumers and merchants
that they could kind of effectively
create this network themselves.
Right. So what you're basically relying on now
is some sort of extrinsic paradigm shift,
probably a technology paradigm shift,
that enables a new entrant
to bootstrap one side of the marketplace
in one way or the other
to create a new system.
And without a new paradigm emerging,
this is the system.
I'd say a new paradigm
or the government intervention,
this kind of is the system
that we've made our bed
and we're stuck with,
for good and for bad.
Yep. I mean, I love my rewards cards.
Right. And look at all of the economic value
that it created by enabling e-commerce.
It is truly astonishing
that without UPS to ship packages
and without credit cards
to let us pay for things on the internet,
like it just wouldn't have happened.
It's trillions of dollars
of transactions in the economy
that would not exist.
So the arguments to merchants are,
look, people spend more
when they use a card.
There's a broader range of buyers
that use a card.
Very cool feature of these credit card
and debit cards
is there's guaranteed payment with no risk.
There's instant authorization
for this consumer wants this thing.
Now they could return it,
but you know for sure
that they're good for the money
and you're going to get the money very soon
when they walk out the door,
which that wouldn't happen in checks.
There's a cost to checks.
Right. If you're going to accept a check
from somebody,
there's a strong element of trust
that you have to have
with that individual or entity.
Yep. And if you're saying
you better come in here bearing cash
or a cashier's check,
you're gonna have way fewer customers.
Not to mention, like,
there's totally a cost of facilitating cash.
You know, it's one thing for a coffee shop,
but let's say you run a running shoe store
and everything you sell is $150 to $250.
There's a pretty meaningful amount of cash
that piles up in your establishment.
And so you need to make sure
that you have security
or like, you know,
let's pick an even higher ticket item thing,
like a jewelry store.
You need security.
You need to move that cash somewhere.
You need to, like, make time
to go to the bank to deposit it.
Totally. The operational overhead
associated with that.
There is a value to providing payment
and there is a cost
to whatever the payment method is.
And so am I saying that the cost is 3%
or in the old days, 5% or 7%?
No, absolutely not.
But there certainly is some cost
no matter what form of payment is used.
Absolutely.
So the business today,
what does Visa look like?
Well, last year,
Visa processed $14 trillion of volume
through their network,
which is an almost meaninglessly large number.
How do you even think about that?
One fun way to think about that
that I calculated
is if you start from 1971,
the first full year
that the Bank of America hard network
was liberated from Bank of America,
the growth in payment volume
on the network since then
has been 17.3% compounded annually
for 51 years.
Oh my God.
Wild.
It turns out the world
eventually did want to pay
with frictionless, fast,
and often credit extending methods.
Wow. 17% compounded for 51 years.
Yeah. I mean, this is like Berkshire levels
of compounding that is happening here.
Yep.
And it's not like, you know,
people may think, oh, 17%,
like, oh, I have seen IRRs greater than that.
Have you seen them greater than that
over 51 years?
Right.
Not many of those.
It's amazing.
The number of transactions
they processed last year
was over 190 billion.
So that is 27 transactions
per person on earth,
including young children,
every single year.
Hey, man, young children
require a lot of commerce.
Let me tell you.
So I hear.
There are 4.1 billion visa cards
in circulation.
Their net revenue is $29 billion.
$29.
That's up from 22 billion
two years ago.
So there's an interesting thing
that I didn't really realize with Visa,
which is it's had a hell of a decade.
Yeah.
In my head, Visa has been
this steady state thing in the world,
as has MasterCard.
But the last decade has been
the story of Visa's incredible dominance
in revenue and transactions and volume.
It's just actually true
that a lot of their growth
has been recent in the last decade.
Their value added services,
this is an interesting thing
that I want to come back to,
was six billion.
So look at their overall revenue number
of 29 billion.
Their value added services
is six billion.
We'll talk about what that means.
The most shocking thing
about the business is
they have 50% net income margins.
So of the 30-ish billion
that they made in revenue,
their net income was 15.
Yeah.
This is absurd.
All the picture we painted
in the whole story,
it was all building toward that climax
of they have created something
with essentially zero marginal costs
in perhaps the largest market out there,
certainly one of them,
global commerce,
both e- and non-e-commerce.
And as Visa would argue,
both consumer but also B2B commerce.
Yeah.
50% net income margins
on 30 billion in revenue.
There it is.
And you might say,
so wait,
if they have 50% net income margins,
what is their gross margin?
Because is it SAS level good
at 75, 85%?
Nope.
Their gross margins are 98%.
Unreal.
There are no variable costs
in this business.
There are no costs of goods sold.
Unreal.
It's crazy.
So I think
with 50% net income margins,
this is literally the most profitable
large-scale company in the world.
I don't know of any other businesses
of this size
or even like five or 10 times smaller
that have over a 50% net income margin,
including MasterCard,
which is 43%.
And just to throw some numbers out
for people that are like not,
you know, looking at financial statements
all the time,
Microsoft, 34% net income margins.
Microsoft sells software.
They ship bits.
Apple, 25%.
They have an incredibly marked up product
that is differentiated wildly by brand.
25% net income margins.
Google.
Google has a monopoly
in a market of information.
What are the costs involved in that business?
21% net income margins.
I would have thought Google would be higher.
As we were talking in my mind,
I was like,
well, Google is probably the only one
that can come close,
but wow,
Microsoft is higher.
I didn't realize that.
Yeah, it's nuts.
It's nuts.
They do have 27,000 employees.
In some ways,
it feels like an oddly large number
and in other ways,
it feels small.
But I think we should talk about that
in the context of the value-added services.
Interestingly,
there is another company
that we have talked about recently on Acquired
that does $30 billion in revenue
and has 27,000 employees.
Do you know what it is, David?
That would be NVIDIA.
Yeah.
It's a weirdly mirror image.
Even NVIDIA doesn't have gross margins like Visa.
It is the ultimate solution.
I think that is the takeaway.
Yes.
Visa does 707 million transactions per day.
That is 8,600 transactions per second
every second throughout the year.
So a big takeaway should be like,
my God,
they have built high-throughput infrastructure globally.
That's an unbelievably impressive thing.
With almost no downtime,
it is 99.999% uptime,
which I am not a site reliability engineer,
but I think that is five nines.
Which is wild.
I mean, you hear about AWS going down more frequently
than you hear about Visa going down.
Totally.
That's 16,000 banks in 200 countries.
They have six data centers distributed across the world.
It's kind of amazing it's only six,
to be honest,
with that kind of reliability and uptime.
You know, related to that, though,
you raised a good point earlier.
The data envelope,
as opposed to the value envelope,
although I guess it is sort of the same,
is also not that large
relative to the importance and the value.
Right.
This is not YouTube.
Yeah.
The transactions themselves,
in part because this was all architected in the 70s.
Right.
That is definitely why.
Yeah.
Lots of people in this ecosystem would love it
if you could send entire receipts
in machine-readable form across this network.
You can't.
We're stuck with a lowest common denominator protocol
that we're shipping
very crude pieces of information across.
I will say there are other people
that are participants in this ecosystem
that are perfectly fine with it
having almost no information
or minimal information going across it.
An example of which is the banks.
The banks don't want to be sharing
any of this information
that could put them at a strategic disadvantage.
Your bank knows your name,
knows your social security number,
knows your address.
Visa, I'm running transactions
across their network all the time.
All it knows is my card number.
It has no notion of identity.
Isn't that crazy?
I didn't realize that.
Yeah, that is crazy.
And the banks like that
because then the banks get to say,
no, no, no, this is my customer.
Visa, we will use your network
because it is the way
that I need to accomplish something for my customer.
But I'm not just going to like
turn my customer into your customer.
Why would I do that?
And one of the things
we didn't talk about in the story,
because it was long enough as is,
is the whole debit card struggle.
Obviously, debit cards are a big part
and debit transactions,
a big part of the Visa network today.
But when Visa first tried to introduce them,
this was one of the things
that led to D-Hawk's ouster.
The banks were like,
no, no, no, no, no.
Debit cards, that sounds like banking relationships.
Banking relationships are my domain.
That's where I make my money.
Those are my deposits.
You look like you're trying to reach your hand
across from being in service of us
into competing with us.
And obviously debit cards
did eventually become part of the system,
but not in the way that,
you know, it was looking like
D initially wanted them to.
It's pretty fascinating that debit came later.
Functionally to me as a consumer,
even though I get floated for a month,
my credit card is essentially a debit card
where if I want to,
I can turn it into a loan at the end of 30 days.
It's a debit card with a lot of benefits.
Right.
And obviously, like,
I get to keep the money for 30 more days.
So it's not quite the same thing,
but debit is a simpler product.
So it's so interesting
that debit came decades
after credit cards on the Visa network.
You would think they would have started with debit,
but of course they couldn't have started with debit.
The banks would never have gone for that.
Right. That was the domain of the banks.
And actually there was a big fight
between Visa and all the ATM networks.
And D wanted your Visa card
to also be your ATM card.
It makes sense, right?
Like, why would you have different cards?
Mine is today.
They basically are now.
But for many, many years, they weren't.
And they certainly weren't back in D's day.
Right. And I think part of the reason
why debit cards were sort of like
forced into existence
was that consumers basically demanded it,
where they were like,
look, if I can pay with a card
for this high value purchase,
and I don't want to use credit,
you're telling me that
if I don't want credit,
then I have to walk down the street,
withdraw cash from my bank,
and bring the cash?
Is there not something like a credit card
but doesn't extend me alone?
So in closing on the numbers today,
this is the important number to know,
and one that may make you uncomfortable.
But I'm curious how this lands for you, David.
U.S. merchants paid an estimated $93 billion
in Visa and MasterCard credit card fees last year,
according to the Nielsen Report
and industry publication.
That $93 billion was up from $33 billion in 2012.
Wow, that's a lot more billions.
That's a lot more billions.
So we've talked a lot here about the interchange
and how Visa makes money in the transaction.
I will say half of Americans
carry a credit card balance,
which is absolutely brutal
since those interest rates right now
are around 22%.
David, you and I learned in doing some research
that the reason why we all get these credit cards
from North Dakota
is because every state used to have anti-usury laws,
like no one was allowed to make you serious loans,
and North Dakota was the first to drop them.
And that's why all the banks
issued all their card programs out of North Dakota
because you could do things
like have 22% loans made to consumers
and have that be entirely fine.
So that's the sad history
of why your credit cards always get mailed from there.
And there's no denying that is really sad
and unfortunate on the consumer debt side of all this.
You know, on the fee side,
on the one hand, I'm tempted to say like,
oh, obviously tripling the amount of fees
that merchants are paying
for credit card processing over 10 years,
like that's ridiculous.
But transaction value has meaningfully gone up too,
like gross volume is way up.
Yes, transaction value.
But also I have to imagine a big part of that
is share of commerce that's happening
as e-commerce versus traditional commerce.
The credit card networks really are providing
a huge amount of value to e-commerce,
as you were saying earlier,
they are to physical commerce too.
Nobody wants to pay with cash or check anymore these days.
But like e-commerce,
there's no other way that that can happen.
So does it make sense that the credit card networks
and their associated parties
take more value in that world?
I think so.
Yeah, there's been downward pressure
on interchange for a long time.
I think industry average right now is down around 2.24,
which is compelling considering we started at 7%.
Right.
That downward pressure has been easy to give on by Visa
for things like in-person transactions with card present.
But for a lot of their super high margin
online transactions where the growth is,
that's where they decide,
oh, actually we have a really high interchange for that area.
So Visa is sort of a master of packaging,
figuring out how can we take some things
and sort of make them more affordable to our merchants
or give them away for free,
while also figuring out how can we sort of move things around
or invent new products that are super high margin
that give us a lot of room to run in the future.
Yep. And it makes sense.
Just do the thought exercise, right?
Let's say you're a physical merchant
and you decide to walk away from Visa
and all the credit card networks,
say your only cash or check.
I mean, you probably are committing suicide as a business,
but you could operate.
If you're providing enough value,
like ATMs exist, you can operate.
There's plenty of cash only bars.
Yeah, exactly.
Bars, great example.
If you're on the internet and you say,
I'm walking away from the credit card companies,
you are literally committing suicide.
Right.
I mean, you could use PayPal, I guess.
But you're paying just as much for that.
Yeah, totally.
Unless you are literally getting people
to type in their account and routing numbers,
you are paying credit card-like fees
to accept payments on the internet.
It's worth sharing.
So while we're in the revenue streams here,
the money that card issuers make,
only a minority of it is actually from the interchange.
And keep in mind, the card issuers are the ones
that make that 1.6%, the bulk of the transaction.
Most of the money that card issuers make
is from interest payments.
Right.
I mean, they're banks.
That's the thing, all the way back
to the beginning of the episode.
What was the motivation for Bank of America
in the early days?
It was turbocharge my banking operations.
What is your banking operation?
It's taking deposits, make loans with them,
make money on the interest rates on those loans.
Nothing has changed in the banking industry.
Totally.
Visas incentives are more transactions
because we want more 0.2%.
And the issuers incentives are carry a balance
because that's where we make most of our money.
Yes.
Because even though they're getting the lion's share
of the transaction fee, that's going all right
back to the consumer in the form of rewards.
And anti-fraud measures and other value-added services
that they have to buy from Visa.
Probably a good time to introduce that $6 billion
that Visa is doing in value-added services.
That is all brand new, high margin products
that they've sort of invented in the last 10 years or so
that they're trying to sell to merchants.
High margin product.
There's no higher margin product than the core product.
Right.
Brand new, also high margin products.
Merchants, banks, they're basically trying to sell
products to people in the ecosystem, anti-fraud, analytics.
And it's working very well.
They're making a lot of money on that.
And they view that as a high growth area in the future too.
But again, it's a little bit of like shifting things around
in the same picture.
Like, look, there's downward pressure on interchange.
And we can demonstrate to you that interchange is going down.
Oh, but we have this great product that is helpful
and basically necessary that you also should buy.
And there's a lot of that going on.
All right.
So that basically covers the high level stats
on the business today so that we can go into analysis.
And you can have a general shape of the business
we're talking about.
But you know, 11th largest company in the world,
valued at half a trillion dollars,
around $30 billion in revenue.
And they get to keep half of that at the end of the day.
And they take no financial risk.
And they are just moving information around.
Mind blowing.
They get to keep half of that after taxes
at the end of the day.
That's wild.
There's actual cash in the bank.
This is not EBITDA.
This is net income.
Crazy.
All right, David.
Power.
Does that sound good to you?
Oh, let's talk power.
All right.
So listeners, this is where we talk through
Hamilton Helmer's Seven Powers Framework,
which is trying to figure out what is it
about this particular business that enables it
to achieve persistent differential returns
and be more profitable than their closest competitor
and do so sustainably.
It's an interesting one here.
This is a lot like the Lockheed Martin episode,
where I'm actually not sure we can apply
the formal definition where we say,
what enables them to be more profitable
than MasterCard?
Because together, they're like this
government-enabled duopoly.
And the way that we did this in the Lockheed Martin episode
was we said, let's look at the five defense contractors
as one entity and say,
what enables the five of them collectively
to out-compete new entrants?
And I think that's the right thing to do here
with Visa and MasterCard, too.
At the end of the day, Visa and MasterCard
have basically no sustainable competitive advantage
over each other.
It's just operational excellence,
who's slightly more clever on the bets
they're willing to make for these value-added services
or next product lines.
So, yeah.
I think the one area where there is difference
between them, and it's probably less so today,
but was quite strong through the 90s and 2000s
was brand.
I do think Visa made a genius move
positioning against American Express,
going up-market in perception
and partnering with the Olympics.
It's funny, even though it's a commodity,
like them and MasterCard are a commodity,
they somehow position themselves as more premium.
Well, sugar water is a commodity, too.
That's why brand matters in these markets.
But you're literally never making,
I guess it's for the banks,
because consumers are never making a buying decision
on whether it's Visa or MasterCard.
That is not how you decide what card to get.
Well, the brand is like the Intel inside.
It's an ingredient brand.
So, yes, the banks make the decision,
but really the consumers make the decision
because if consumers have a preference
for Visa over MasterCard,
they'll demand it from the banks.
No, they're just not differentiated enough
to demand it.
I just so don't see that any consumer ever
has sway there.
I got the Chase Sapphire Reserve card five years ago
because it was by far the best rewards card
for the type of thing that I spend money on,
as probably with half of our audience.
And I think it's a Visa Infinite,
which I'm sure is one of their high fee things,
which is why they can pass on so many rewards.
I think today that's true,
but I do think based on the research
and I was maybe too biased towards Visa,
but I think Visa did accelerate past MasterCard.
And I think there was a strong brand element of that.
I think it's more equal today.
Yeah, it's interesting.
It's funny how it used to feel more like
you were getting a Visa card
that was somehow like powered by a bank.
And now it feels more like
you are getting a custom proprietary product
that a bank invented for you
that happens to either say Visa or MasterCard on it.
Yes, totally agree.
Or a merchant.
I mean, when you have the Alaska card,
you feel like you have the Alaska card.
You're like, sorry, there's a bank behind this.
And like, oh, is it Visa or MasterCard?
I don't know.
I don't care.
It's the Alaska card.
Yep.
I think there's totally also a story
that's beyond the scope of this episode,
but how banks and in particular Chase,
ate American Express's customer base
over the last set of years.
Yeah, I mean, in part,
that's just bad strategy on Amex's part
that eventually it was going to happen
that they would not be the scale player.
Being a closed loop network,
you're just going to be a more niche player.
And so how do you win as a niche player?
You need to retain your highest value customers
and your highest margin customers.
Well, they missed the generational transfer.
I think they did retain their highest value,
highest margin customers.
I think those customers are just 80 years old now.
Yeah, it's true.
I think there are less affluent people in our generation
who have Amex's versus the premium products
from banks or merchants.
Yep.
Okay.
So Visa and MasterCard together,
which of the seven powers do they have today?
And if you want to also do the analysis,
which did they have early days?
And I will start,
I think there's an easy no brainer
that you have scale economies.
Any investment that Visa or MasterCard make
get amortized across 16,000 member banks,
across 4 billion cards,
across half the humans on the planet
or whatever it is.
I mean, just good luck competing
with any fixed cost investment
that Visa is going to make.
It'll pay back instantly if it works
to the extent that they can roll it out
to any tiny fraction of their customer base.
It's just so huge that it fits the scale economies thing
where if Netflix goes and buys a piece of content,
they can pay more for it
because they can show it to more people.
Visa is the exact same thing
with all of their fixed R&D costs.
Tell me if you think otherwise on this.
I think there's basically like a law of economic nature
that if your gross margins exceed,
call it 75, 80%,
and you are of a certain revenue scale threshold,
our gross margins exceed 75, 80%,
but we're a two-person company
with a de minimis amount of revenue
in the global economy.
But say you're in the billions of dollars of revenue scale,
you must have scale economy power.
Right. It's almost stupid to say this one
because it's like, okay, yeah,
but that's actually not what gives the business,
that's not what's so special about it.
The network economies are what's so special about it.
Yes, of course, of course.
Yeah.
But yeah, you must, you simply must
if you have those margins at that revenue scale
have scale economies.
Right. That's a great point.
Okay. Explain to us the network economies.
Well, I mean, this is even better
than the classic two-sided network.
This is the classic five-sided network effect.
Where you have an amplifier on each side
because you have the banks going
and using all of their scale
to amplify your own go-to-market motion.
Yep. I think this is also true.
With network economies and network power,
the more participants in a network,
the greater complexity grows
and the harder it is to actually pull off the network.
There's plenty of single-sided networks,
like Facebook is a single-sided network,
at least on the user-based side.
There's advertisers, you could argue that's a second side,
but everybody's the same node in the network.
Then there's two-sided networks,
like Airbnb is the classic one,
you know, something like that.
There are three-sided networks out there,
probably some four,
and clearly this is an example of a five-sided network.
But as you add sides to the network,
the number of successful examples
goes like way, way, way, way, way down
because it's just so hard.
Right. Because they're way harder to pull off,
but they're so locked in once they're in.
Yes. And I think this whole story that we told
of how incredibly freaking hard and unlikely it was
that this happened
means that you have a five-sided network effect business
and it's basically unbreakable.
Yeah. Totally agree on network economies.
I don't think there's much process power.
I don't think there's really any switching costs.
I mean, in fact, that's probably a bare case
to any card company today
is that especially with digital payments,
you don't even have to carry cards with you anymore.
I should go get approved for 50 cards
and write a script to make it
so that whatever the most interesting card
for that given transaction is pops to the top of my wallet.
I think there's almost no switching costs anywhere really
because when any of these banks have their contract up,
they just go and talk to Visa and MasterCard
and say, who gives me a better deal
because you guys are both the same.
This is true after the first antitrust lawsuit
when duality was introduced and banks could multi-home.
Before then, yes. After then, zero.
Well, yeah. I mean, before then,
there's interesting analysis to do
between Visa and MasterCard.
Now there is none.
Yep. Which is exactly what DHOC predicted.
Yep. But yeah, is there switching costs
between the Visa MasterCard oligopoly and someone else?
I suppose, yes, there isn't another option.
Yep.
Like if you were a bank that wanted to issue a bunch of cards
that weren't Visa or MasterCard.
I mean, I guess there's Discover.
No, that's a closed loop network too.
Oh, yeah, right.
They are their own bank.
Yep.
Pretty interesting.
Nobody else.
Counter-positioning, the last one, none now, I think.
Right. Well, you almost can't have it as an incumbent.
Right. But there was incredible counter-positioning
back in the day with Bank of America.
They were the only institution in America
that could pull this off,
that could absorb the losses,
that had minimum viable customer base on the consumer side
and on the merchant side,
that had the dynamics that they did within California,
that even though New York was still bigger as a state,
the market was so fragmented there
that none of the banks had enough power to pull this off.
They were literally the only one who could do this.
Yep. That's absolutely right.
All right. I think that's it for power.
Yep.
Playbook?
Let's do it.
The first one is, this business is a toll booth
and toll booths make for great businesses,
especially when everyone has to drive on your road
or the road next to yours
and both of them charge the same toll.
Well put. I'm going to do my best Charlie Munger.
I have nothing to add on that one.
There you go.
The next one that I think is pretty interesting is Visa.
I read their whole annual report.
They have a narrative around these new things
that they're launching,
especially the value-added services,
being good for consumers.
And everything that is good for consumers,
often for security and privacy,
is also good for Visa.
That is sort of the playbook that Visa runs
as they figure out what is something
that we can sort of advertise as a benefit to you
that also helps us either increase
number of transactions, margin, or lock-in.
And that is the way to analyze their entire product suite.
You hear something is launched,
you're like, okay, why?
Which of those three needles isn't moving for them?
That's my main one.
I've got more analysis to do in Bear Bull,
but what do you have?
The two that jump out to me are,
one, just like our NFL episode,
just like our Benchmark episodes,
Communist Capitalism.
Yes. The best example?
Yes. A, it is the best example of Communist Capitalism,
certainly that we've ever studied,
probably in the world.
Hard to imagine one better.
And two, it's like a special breed of Communist Capitalism.
You're going to laugh at this,
that I force out as Democratic Communist Capitalism.
The ultimate irony, right?
It's this idea of like, yes, it's capitalism.
It's competitors banding together
to create more value than they could alone.
But this is at a massive scale.
Like with Benchmark, it's five partners.
With the NFL, it's 30, 32 teams, something like that.
Yeah. This is our whole global financial infrastructure
that has decided to do this together.
Right. This is thousands of banks
that have decided to do this together.
It is its own separate class of this, I think.
Way, way, way harder to pull off than like,
yeah, Ben, you know, you and me together,
like acquired as Communist Capitalism for sure.
If we were starting a venture capital firm
with three of our friends,
can we pull it off with five people?
Sure.
Could we pull this off with 200 banks?
No.
Right. Especially when you're not starting from scratch.
I mean, the 200 banks that they pulled it off with,
they all had a agreement in place
where they owned a franchise
and you had to go to them and say,
you have to forfeit your franchise
and instead sign this other agreement.
It's like, you're not starting from zero.
You're starting from negative.
And Bank of America, the franchisor,
D had to go to them and say,
hey, you're going to forfeit the whole asset.
That's a great point.
Totally.
So that's one.
And then the other two, you know,
I think it's the twin stories of innovation here,
which, you know, really hat tip to Dave Stearns
for tipping us off on here.
The socio-technical innovation,
the organizational stuff,
the Communist Capitalism,
the Democratic Capitalism,
everything we're talking about.
Incredible.
Also the technology story here.
Incredible.
Neither of which,
because of this weird nature of who owned it
and how it was set up,
people really understood.
But both of which are just world-class,
incredible stories.
Yeah, super true.
And right here in Silicon Valley.
Who would have thought a success story
at a Silicon Valley?
They've gotten so beat up over the last few years.
They really deserve this nice...
But that's what I find so funny.
Nobody knows that.
This is a Silicon Valley company.
Do you ever like run into Visa people
hanging out around San Francisco?
Exceedingly rarely.
Well, I take that back.
In the tech and venture capital world,
exceedingly rarely.
In the corner of San Francisco
that very much exists,
which is the old money,
finance,
you know, the legacy of Bank of America.
Absolutely in that world.
And Jenny's in that world
because those are the folks
who are on the board of the ballet,
who are the patrons,
who are the donors.
The longtime chairman of the board
of the ballet
was the CEO of Visa USA for many years.
Like there are a lot of Visa people
in that world here.
It's funny though,
that like you would think
it would have bled more
into the Silicon Valley world,
but it really hasn't.
You would think every tech company
would love to be Visa.
The financial profile of Visa's business
is more tech
than any of the tech companies.
It is what they all wish they could have.
Yes.
Fascinating.
All right, you want to do value creation,
value capture?
Yes.
So originally Interchange
was supposed to cover the costs
of operating the network,
creating a trusted system,
preventing fraud,
offering innovation every few years
to improve the system.
And with the incredible profit margin
that Visa makes today,
not to mention whatever
the card issuing banks make,
it is very clear that the market
has evolved such that
these players can charge more
in a transaction
than is necessary
to cover their costs.
And like,
I'm not sitting here demonizing
anyone who doesn't use
cost plus pricing.
I am a capitalist.
I fully embrace the idea
that a business can
and should achieve pricing power
if it can position itself
to do so in a market.
We're looking for
high gross margins to invest in.
Right, exactly.
But it's interesting that
because of the multi-layered
network effect, David,
that you brought up
in the power section,
it is not easy
and potentially impossible
for the free market to do its thing
and have some new player
that actually applies
margin pressure here.
The free market is clearly
not playing out.
And other than a big technology
innovation that shifts the paradigm
in a huge way,
these entities have massively
optimized their costs
and continued to scale
in a huge way
such that they just get to capture
way more value
than it costs them to create.
Yep.
Seemingly indefinitely.
There's a lot more to talk about
in bare bull there.
Yes. I mean, the worst place
that this kind of shows up
is the couple percent plus 30 cents
that kind of feels small.
Yeah, the 30 cents is really pernicious.
It's pernicious,
especially for small transaction items.
So like coffee shops,
there's an example of a piece
that we'll link to in the episode sources
of a coffee roaster and shop
where their line item
of what they had to pay
in payment processing fees
is actually larger
than what they paid for beans.
Wow, that's crazy.
Even large retailers
that run at pretty thin margins,
it is often the case
that their EBITDA
is the same size
as their card processing fees.
I mean, any time
where your average transaction value
is less than 10 bucks,
that 30 cents is a killer.
That's where the 30 cents kills you.
But any time that you are
a low margin business,
which many retailers are,
if you're a discounter,
if you're a Walmart,
you're paying two,
three percent of the whole transaction.
But when you look at the margin profile,
the way that that gets amplified
is that you're paying 15 percent
or more of your available gross margin
on that item.
So the only place
where this doesn't kill you
is if you're a high gross margin
high ticket item business.
That's when you can be like,
eh, card fees, whatever.
But if you're selling
too high priced of goods,
then you often get into a scenario
where, you know,
you are doing
less frequent transactions,
more considered purchases,
and you can go around the system.
This is a bear case on Visa is,
are they ever going to participate
in real estate or cars?
Or no, not at these interchange rates.
Why would anyone ever buckle
to pay these sorts of things
for things that cost
a thousand dollars or more?
Yeah, well,
before we go into bear and bull,
where I know you
and we have a lot to talk about
what could potentially disrupt
Visa and MasterCard.
I think it is worth just one minute
on the value creation side of this.
And I really think
you hit the nail on the head
a while back when you said e-commerce.
Yes, all that other stuff
we were just talking about,
the 30 cents, you know, everything.
That is a lot of value capture.
There's a lot of value capture
that Visa is doing in MasterCard too.
On the other hand,
I don't think e-commerce
really would have happened alone.
There's plenty of other value
creation out there too.
Lots and lots and lots.
But let's just take e-commerce.
I feel like this is Passover.
Like, you know, that would have been enough.
E-commerce would have been enough.
Because I don't think it would have
happened without credit cards.
Or at least it would have been
many years behind
because you needed to sort of
invent some new mechanism
to enable payments over the internet.
Yeah. And yeah, you know,
PayPal and all that.
That would have been a long slog
if PayPal had to get an adoption
for all payments on the internet to happen.
Yeah, that's a good point.
Which, by the way,
PayPal is on a shockingly
large number of websites today.
PayPal has a lot of market power
because they have penetrated America.
They are deep in terms of
people's preferred payment method,
which is something I've been
kind of blind to.
Really?
Oh, I missed that in the research.
That's quite surprising to me.
Yeah.
Well, that leads us
right into Bear and Bull.
Yeah. PayPal is an especially
interesting company right now
because they're strategically
pretty well positioned,
but they're going through
a leadership transition.
And so you don't actually know
what the new strategy
is going to be yet.
Yeah. Okay. Bear and Bull.
Let's do it.
Well, okay. Bear.
And before I actually go into it,
a tongue-in-cheek joke is
if they ever get to stop
making the insane margins
that they do on FX transactions,
that's the ultimate bear case.
It's something like
a hundred times the margin
that they make on domestic ones.
Wow.
If you look at how Visa
breaks out segments,
you're like, oh my God,
the international transactions
are ludicrously profitable
whenever they have to do
a currency conversion.
So that's like worth knowing
when you're trying to understand
the shape of the businesses.
The more international,
the better for them.
But my real bear case
is that their business model
has basically always been tied
to the digitization
of consumer payments.
Ever since they rolled out
the three key technologies
you were talking about, David,
I mean, at this point
in global history,
which is kind of amazing,
we're finally here,
over 50% of consumer payments
to merchants go on cards now.
It took forever to get here,
40 years or something like that,
50 years.
But we will start decelerating
because we've already shifted
more than half the payments
to happen on cards.
Right. We're on the back half
of the adoption curve.
Right. So that is this tailwind
that has been with Visa forever.
Like any time you could come up
with any bear case,
it was always just trumped
by the idea that, well,
more people are going to do
digital transactions,
so they're just going to outrun
any headwinds in their way.
That will start to slow.
It's not like Visa's
core business revenue
is going to like flatline
or decline or anything like that,
but they will have less
of the growth tailwind
from this amazing secular thing
that's been happening,
which is people shifting payments
to cards and digital methods,
you know, as the years progress.
Yep.
My next one is closed loop systems
like Alipay and Tencent's ecosystem.
To the extent that super apps
actually happened in the US
the way that they did in China,
we would be telling
a very different story.
I mean, the amount of volume
that flows in the mobile ecosystem
there that is not a part
of the credit card ecosystem.
I actually don't know
if it could have happened here,
but the rise of that
is super dangerous.
And people often will cite like,
well, the Starbucks app
is a very good example
of people using a digital wallet
that's native to a retailer here.
How many people do you know
that reload their Starbucks app
with their direct checking account,
routing and account number?
Everyone actually loads it
using a credit card.
That is not bad for them at all.
It only becomes bad for them
if they actually get disintermediated
where a bank and a merchant
go direct to the merchant's consumer
and manage to initiate
a payment flow digitally
that doesn't involve a card network.
Yep.
The two things I would want to investigate
on the could what happened
in China happen here?
One, just the build out of infrastructure
happened more concurrently in China,
like payments infrastructure
is already built out here.
Technology infrastructure
got built out afterwards,
whereas it all happened
all together in China.
Two, though, maybe more important
is just the government influence, right?
I doubt the Chinese government
wanted visa, you know,
ostensibly American corporation
powering their payments.
There's actually this really interesting
weird deal that got cut
between China UnionPay and Visa,
where if you use a cup card in China,
CUP, it uses the CUP rails.
But if you go internationally
where like there is no
China UnionPay terminal
at my local coffee shop
here in Seattle,
if you were to travel here
and swipe it, it runs on Visa.
But they sort of have
the national security benefit
and the economic benefit
of four people in China,
transacting in China
that runs on China owned payment rails.
Yep. Which, you know, I mean,
I guess that is an associated
bear case, right?
China in and of itself.
And could other governments
around the world start
adopting similar postures?
Yep. The next one is similar,
but a little bit different.
Real time payment networks
are starting to become a thing.
The instant bank transfers
that these provide
are not exactly a payment system.
It lacks a lot of the features
that you would need for payments,
like the ability to refund
is a prominent one,
when you just initiate
a bank transfer,
there's no sort of insurance
around the chargeback
or a refund or anything like that.
But you could build
payment type features on top of it.
And real time payments
are starting to become a thing
in a lot of countries.
So in the US, of course,
we have FedNow,
but the adoption of that is slow
because there's not a Fed mandate
for it to happen the way
that it has happened
in other countries.
In Brazil, PIX has had
very fast uptake.
UPI in India is another one.
The UK has something
called faster payments.
And this can get especially scary
for Visa when these start
working across geographies,
like Singapore and India
have already linked theirs up.
And so that is a method
of transferring money
between countries
that has nothing to do with Visa.
And that's, I'm sure,
something they're keeping
a very close eye on
and trying to figure out,
is there a way that we can become
the real time payment system
that governments decide
that their country should adopt?
And, you know, I mean,
technology and infrastructure
and ecosystem is getting built on this,
obviously, around the world
and here too.
Great friends of the show,
Modern Treasury,
like they are enabling
a lot of this.
Totally.
Yeah.
Apple.
I just think it's like
a general bear case here,
but here's my sort of
specific implementation.
Specifically, Apple Pay, right?
Yeah. So on a Apple Pay transaction,
I'm pretty sure Apple makes
about as much as Visa does
because they stack
an extra 15 basis points
on top of the other three fees
that we talked about.
The one to go to the issuer,
the one to go to the merchant's bank,
and the one to go to Visa itself.
And so if Apple has convinced merchants
that it's fine to lose
another 15 basis points
on every transaction
because it's so freaking convenient
that users get to tap
their phone or their watch,
that is just step one
in an equation.
Here's the like really extreme
Apple payment bull case.
If Apple were to have payment terminals,
then they could totally run
all of those Apple Pay payments
on their own network.
As it happens right now,
you need to have a card
issued by a bank
that likely is issued on Visa
or MasterCard or AmEx or Discover.
And then it goes over
those payment rails.
Apple just puts a little charge
on top of it,
and then it's the same way
any other transaction happens.
But if I were to Apple Pay
with my Apple card
at an Apple point of sale,
why would that ever need to run
on Visa's network?
And so Apple doesn't make
point of sale hardware today,
but if they were to acquire Square
or if they were to do something
way out of their DNA
and go acquire like Verifone
or a legacy provider,
they could create their own
closed loop network
where they're actually
the payment method
and the merchant's
technology provider.
Yep. I actually don't even think
they'd need to do that.
I mean, they're Apple, right?
They'd just use iPads
and they would have
as part of Apple Pay,
they would have Apple Pay
for merchant software
that would be on the iPads.
No, that's too hard.
That adoption curve sucks.
I think they would pay the
what's Square's market cap
or blocks like $30 billion
or something right now.
Apple could totally just go
buy block and do this overnight
and light up
all the existing merchants.
Like what else are you going to do
with $250 billion of cash?
I mean, maybe they would try,
but Apple is not going to be
in the business of directly
having a sales force
to sign up all these merchants.
I don't think.
Agreed. I have a counterpoint to that,
but I'll save it for the bull
side of the ledger here.
Okay. I mean, the other thing,
the lighter weight thing on Apple
is even if they don't
try to build their own
closed loop thing,
who really cares
what's in your wallet
when your wallet is your phone
for consumers.
Now, if you're using your phone
in your head,
your payment method is your phone.
And it's like the card underneath
it is not terribly important,
other than the fact
that you need to remember
to auto pay it.
And like, ideally,
it has the one with the best rewards.
And that's not what
most people are thinking,
because I think actually
the majority of people
don't have rewards
based credit cards,
but they loaded some card in there.
They kind of forgot about it
and they pay.
And Apple is actually
the means of payment,
not the card.
Even though it's flowing
over their rails,
consumers don't think of it that way.
So I don't know exactly
how that will manifest
in chiseling away at Visa's value,
but it certainly is fair to say
that the card network
and the card issuer
have less of a role
in the consumer's mind
than they used to
based on the fact
that we now have mobile payments.
Yep. And Apple Pay
and Google Pay along with it
are, I think, by like
many, many, many orders of magnitude,
the most successful
quasi-alternative payment systems
that have actually gotten install bases.
Right. Google Pay is very popular too.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
But like, what else?
I mean, there've been other
alternative payment systems
over the years
and none of them match,
at least domestically in the US,
Apple and Google Pay.
Yep. So my TLDR on the bear case
is the core business matures,
so that tailwind lessens.
The debit networks
get sort of chipped away at
more rails emerge for each use case
that sort of, again,
has further chipping away
at their available use cases,
even if not the actual ones
that they're using today,
but the ones that they could go tackle
in the future might get eaten
by other people
and they spend a bunch of wasted money
trying to figure it out.
But I don't know.
Those are the best bear cases
I can come up with.
And the funniest thing is
when I asked,
we'll thank a bunch of people
at the end of the show
that we had conversations with,
when we would ask people,
hey, what's your bear and bull on Visa?
Basically, everyone just gave us a bear case
because they're like,
the bull case is obvious.
Yeah, totally.
And I think the obvious bull case is,
this is just an incredibly powerful
network effect
that's 50 years in the making
and is five sided.
And Lord knows,
I can't think of any other
five sided network effects.
Riding a secular increasing market.
Yeah. Riding a secular wave
and nobody has ever broken it.
And past performance
is a strong indicator
of future performance in this domain.
Yep. The corollary of that too
is lots of people have had
lots of similar bear cases
that they've said five years ago,
10 years ago,
and like none of those things
have come true.
Visa has just continued to grow
at low double digit percent growth
every single year,
or I guess to your calculation
of 17% over 51 years.
People in the past have said
many of these bear cases,
but have never come true.
So that's kind of the most obvious.
Here are the few that
are most evident to me
that are sort of potentials
on top of their core business.
Because it is true that interchange
is facing downward pressure.
I mean, we talked about all the way
from 7% down to two and change.
And so they do these
interesting other things.
One benefit to them
of digital payments,
we talked about the potential drawback
with Apple being able
to maybe disintermediate in some way
that's not exactly clear yet,
is tokenization.
So the way that Apple Pay works
is that your card
doesn't actually get sent
to the merchant,
your card number.
None of the identifying information
on there goes.
Instead, your card gets tokenized
and a token representing your card does,
which is, as Visa will tell you,
amazing for security and privacy.
What it also does is allows them
to create more proprietary services.
In the old card number system,
there was a lot more flexibility
in what a merchant
and their payment processor
could actually do
with the literal information on the card.
They could choose
what network to run it on.
There was sort of more optionality with it
when you had the raw information.
And now Visa's like,
hey, we got your token.
Do you want us to do
any of the cool token-based services
that we have with it?
And like, those are high margin for us.
And so that's sort of the tokenization
is good for them.
They now have more digital tokens
than card credentials.
That's been growing really fast.
It doubled last year.
They're sort of tokens on their network.
So, you know, Visa's quote on this is,
this marks a huge milestone,
both for the transition to digital
and in our work to secure
the wider payments ecosystem.
And you better bet that that's good for,
you know, long-term margins
and layering products later on.
Other bull cases.
So this is like my favorite one from there.
Remember the NVIDIA slide
of the trillion dollar TAM?
So here's Visa's version.
Payments, all of payments
is about $200 trillion of volume.
And cards are only $20 trillion.
So here we've been playing
in this tiny little fraction
of the available market.
And there's a few things that they call out
that they want to move into.
That B2B payments is about $120 trillion
if they can access it.
B2B commerce is actually just much larger
than B2C commerce.
If you think about the amount of money
that flows over invoices
that are paid via ACH or wire,
Visa, I think, is intensely aware
that they're not going to take
two and a half percent interchange
on a company invoicing another company
for a million dollar
services provided thing.
But, you know, there are elements of B2B
that do have interchange.
I mean, if you're issued
a Ramp or Brex card
and you go swipe,
that's a B2B transaction.
So they're very excited
about addressing B2B
both in their further push in cards,
but also developing B2B specific products
that have more appropriate
monetization models.
And then they also,
we've been talking a lot
about consumer to business.
Like when I decide to pay for something
at a business,
if you flip that business to consumer,
that is a $30 trillion TAM
or a $30 trillion volume
addressable opportunity.
And you can think of that
as like insurance company
needs to like pay out
after a car insurance
and they need to make that happen fast.
Or refunds.
Let's say you never bought anything,
but a company still needs
to send you some money.
Or like Uber needs to pay their drivers.
This sort of thing is
there's a whole business
they've created called Visa Direct,
which is the business
to consumer push-based payments,
which is a kind of a new foray for them.
And then the last one is just
expansion of cross-border payments.
If they can do more
international transactions,
that is hugely,
hugely profitable.
So that is me trying
to faithfully represent
the bull case that Visa paints
for their shareholders.
Because David,
these bull cases are so easy.
You should read the annual report.
The whole thing's a bull case.
Yeah, right.
One other additional I said
I was going to add on bull case
sort of as a response to the Apple
and my association, Google bear case.
You know, pretty much everybody
we talked to pointed out
as the number one,
most obvious bear case for Visa
right now is Apple and Google.
And the incredible progress
and inroads that they have made
into rails and transactions.
But as you say,
all those transactions
are still just tokenized
Visa MasterCard cards, right?
It's a bull case today.
Yeah, it's a bull case today.
You know, there may be nuance
that I'm missing here,
but if you play out how,
let's say Apple decides,
OK, we want to go after Visa.
I'm not sure how Apple
could actually do that
really without becoming a bank
themselves, you know?
AmEx is a closed loop system.
It's a bank.
Discover is closed loop system.
It's a bank.
Does Apple want to be a bank?
Well, they could become like a stripe.
Yeah, I guess so.
Or like a square.
They're the technology providers
and they have merchant
acquirer banks behind them.
Yeah, sure.
They could do that.
Apple's finance and fintech
operations do not exist in a vacuum.
Is Apple going to take on the risk
to the Apple franchise
of all the regulation
and scrutiny that comes from that?
It depends.
Apple will eventually
saturate their market
and they are looking for
what the next frontier is
and $200 trillion of volume
moving around the global economy.
I think, yes, absolutely.
And so I'm not saying this won't happen,
but Tim Cook board level
discussion on this, right?
Let's play out
the DHOC thought exercise.
Apple succeeds.
They do it.
They eat Visa.
Visa's market cap is now added
to Apple's market cap.
Great.
Apple's market cap just grew by 25%.
Well, I think they have to think
that they can improve something.
They won't go into this
unless they think they can improve
both the user experience
and create a better business out of it.
Great point.
Great point.
And they will.
I mean, the Vision Pro
will come out and we'll have to see
if that is the future or not.
But post that,
like they're going to do a car
or they're going to go into payments.
Right.
They got to keep going
after bigger and bigger markets.
You're right.
You're right.
The cute Apple that we know
of years past is gone.
And we just have to think about,
like, what would a good
capital allocator do
with their strategic position?
True.
I'm not making the argument
that they're still the cute Apple.
I'm just saying, like,
I think actually entering this arena
introduces a significant amount
of risk to the whole franchise
that they have to weigh
in a way that some of these
other markets don't.
That's super true.
Okay.
I have one trivia thing for you
before carve outs.
You may already know this,
but did you know that
you can get a Bank of America card today?
I did not.
Is it like a branded visa product
from Bank of America?
It is a branded product
from Bank of America
available on bankofamerica.com.
There's no annual fee.
Click on their website to apply now.
And the beautiful irony
that will tie a bow
on this whole episode
is the Bank AmeriCard credit card
by Bank of America
runs on MasterCard's network.
As users started to set that up,
I was like,
I know where you're going with this.
I know where you're going with this.
Interbank for the win.
We'll link to it in the show notes.
Get yourself a Bank AmeriCard
and run your transactions
over MasterCard's
beautiful stellar network.
Wow.
That is hilarious.
What a great place to leave the story.
There can't be that many people
that are applying for this thing.
And you would think that Visa
would try to go get this deal done
just for nostalgia purposes.
That's a crime against
internet and business history.
What a story, man.
Truly.
Okay.
Carveouts?
Carveouts.
Mine is available on Netflix.
It is a show called
I Think You Should Leave.
I have not laughed this hard
in a long time.
Each episode's like 15 minutes.
It's like three comedy sketches
with a guy named Tim Robinson
as sort of the brains behind it
in many of the episodes.
Oh, we were talking about this
at our drinks in New York.
Yes.
If I were you, listeners,
and you haven't watched this yet,
I would go to season three, episode one.
My favorite skit of them all
starts approximately six minutes in.
Actually, the whole episode's good,
but the skits two and three
are the truly unbelievable ones.
But it's just, he's so outlandish.
And so, I don't know.
It's like everything
that sketch comedy should be
in the absolute highest production value
you could possibly imagine
shot very convincingly,
I think using the same cinematographer,
but using a completely different set of lenses,
lighting sets, post-production,
such that everything
that they're trying to emulate,
whether it's a game show
or a dating show or a commercial,
feels like the appropriate thing
that they're trying to emulate.
It's just really good.
That's amazing.
I'll have to check it out.
My Carveout is a book.
I think this is my first fun fiction book
in a while.
Mistborn by Brandon Sanderson.
It is a awesome fantasy novel,
the first in the series,
but you can read it as a standalone too.
It's been out for a long time
and has many, many passionate fans out there.
It was recommended to me
by great friend of the show,
Guy Paggiarni, the founder of Snyk,
last time we got together,
which was super fun.
Snyk is an amazing, very large
cybersecurity company
that I'm sure many of you know about.
Focused on developers, right?
Yeah, developer security.
You see their billboards all up and down.
101 here in San Francisco.
But yeah, he recommended it to me a while back
and it took me a while to get to it.
You know, toddler parenting.
But I read it.
I thought it was awesome.
Jenny read it.
She loves it.
She's of course now done the whole series
because she's a voracious reader.
The world building, the magical system,
all the core fantasy elements
are really great.
The political intrigue, highly recommend.
Awesome.
Well, we definitely have a few thank yous
on this one.
Huge thank you to Dave Stearns
for spending the time with us
and recanting his academic thesis.
And it was just awesome reading the book.
I have a personal thank you to
a good friend of mine, Jason Pate of Plaid.
Very helpful to get just general,
high-level thoughts on payments industry.
Thank you to Lisa Ellis from Moffitt Nathanson.
Lisa did an amazing interview
with Ben Thompson a few weeks back.
If you are a Stratecri subscriber,
that is totally worth reading
and I prefer listening.
So go listen to that.
After I read that, I shot her an email
and I was like, we're about to do these.
I would love to talk to you about some of this.
So a huge thanks to her.
Good friend of the show,
Dimitri from Modern Treasury
for helping us quickly get up to speed on payments.
And good friend of mine and David's both,
Ben Idelson, who is a former product person from Stripe.
Our huge thanks to Blinkist, Statsig and Crusoe.
Click the link in the show notes
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In particular, our next episode,
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is going to be a follow-up to this episode on Visa.
Our buddy Gaurav from Thrive Capital
is joining us for a follow-up
to analyze the payments landscape today.
And Gaurav has spent his entire career
as a founder and investor in fintech companies.
And he actually gave a talk
on the history of credit cards
that we used for research in this episode.
So check out ACQ2,
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