519: Explaining Venezuela's 2024 presidential elections

. I am Richard McColl, your host, here in Bogota, Colombia, 2,600 meters closer to the stars. And this week's very special guest is on the line from Venezuela. And I think this is incredibly important. We have presidential elections coming up in Venezuela on the 28th of July 2024..

And the dirty tricks campaigns of the regime of Nicolas Maduro are well underway. Did you know that on the ballot list, he has his photo on it 13 times. But actually, this is quite an exciting, not hopeful, but exciting election, because it's the first time that the opposition have genuinely been permitted in having a candidate. Now, this candidate's name is Edmundo González. And he was largely put in there by María Corina Machado, who was prohibited from running under some sort of spurious claims in 2023..

And then the Venezuelan court upheld those claims in 2024.

. So our guest this week is Ana Milagros Parra. She is a political scientist of quite some note in Venezuela. She is also a teacher. And indeed, she's a podcaster.

Their podcast is A Medias. So if you are a Spanish speaker, I recommend it because, obviously, in the run up, in the lead into these elections, they are covering every angle. And you will notice the difference in language, because they have to self-censor themselves. Ana Milagros gives us a very, very unnerving anecdote that took place to her, something that took place in Venezuela when Diosdado Cabello, the second in command, decided that she was a person of interest. So you'll hear that in the podcast.

But anyhow, this is a really, really fascinating episode of what is going on in Venezuela. And I'm sure we will revisit this topic, because Venezuela, alongside Colombia, sister country, so very similar to Colombia in so many ways. And, of course, with Colombians being, Venezuelans being in Colombia, so many migrants coming through. I was saying that there were, I mean, the figures are shocking. as to the migrants going up through the Darien Gap.

I think at this point, it's more than 70,000 Venezuelans already this year. It's going to be a record year of migrants through the Darien Gap and up through Panama and so on. And if the elections go the way that we can pretty much surmise, and Ana Milagros-Parra will be more in focus on this and more profound on this fact, there will be another upturn in migration through Colombia, up into Panama, Central America, and likely the United States. So it's all connected, folks. And we talk about the chessboard, the chessboard of geopolitical intrigue.

Think of Venezuela where it is. Think of the regime and think of their allies in the face of U.S. sanctions, Russia and China. So, of course, Venezuela does matter, despite the fact it may have fallen off the front pages of late. Anyway, do tune in.

It is a fascinating episode, one not to be missed. You definitely enjoyed last week's with Mario Pinson. Uri Vismo killed humor because our listener download haul for the first day upon release went over 1,000.. Normally, we're in between 500 and 600 downloads. on the first day.

This went over 1,000.

. So thank you, everyone. You clearly liked the studio. Obviously, so many of these interviews are virtual because people are in different parts of the country and the world. But we will try, if we can do in person in Bogota, we will try to continue to use a recording studio.

So thank you, everyone, for listening. And don't go away. The news will come up, the Colombia briefing with Emily Hart, and then we'll be over with Ana Milagros Parra. Follow her on Twitter. Listen to the Amedios podcast and inform yourselves on what's going on in Venezuela.

So thank you again. Don't go away. The Colombia Calling podcast is sponsored by Latin News, a leading source of political and economic analysis on Latin America and the Caribbean since 1967. Their flagship publication, the Latin American Weekly Report, provides a behind-the-scenes briefing on all the week's key developments throughout the region. Sign up for a 14-day free trial at latinnews.com.

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Uribe is the first Colombian president to face criminal trial in over a century. Numerous prosecutors tried to have his case shelved, but formal charges were finally brought last month. His defense team is, however, yet again trying to have the process annulled on the grounds of violation of due process and the right to justice. An alleged accomplice to in these crimes, a magistrate, has also been accused of bribing witnesses and will now face trial in the Supreme Court. Alvaro Hernan Prada had also allegedly tried to convince paramilitary members to retract accusations against Uribe.

Prada was one of two magistrates who last week called for an investigation into now-president Gustavo Petro regarding irregularities in campaign finance. Petro has now ordered a permanent security council in the department of Cauca, where violence against the local population has spiked in recent weeks, perpetrated by FARC dissident group, the Estado Mayor Central, the EMC, particularly the Jaime Martinez and Dagoberto Ramos fronts. While Petro had been tweeting in response to the death of Iran's president this week, he faced criticism from the Cauca region and from hard-right senator Paloma Valencia, who responded that perhaps, instead of his recent focus on Middle Eastern issues, he should respond to the situation in, as Valencia called it, Caucagistan. Similarly, Oscar Djamit Arrubla, mayor of Morales, which suffered a major terrorist attack on Monday, called on the government to move forward with the peace talks, but in a forceful, serious way. The governor of Cauca, meanwhile, Octavio Guzman, also requested that a bilateral ceasefire be sought.

Petro has now asked the Minister of Defence and Military Leadership to move immediately to that region of the country. Also, this week, Petro announced that he wants to go to the UN General Assembly to denounce failures to implement the 2016 peace deal with the FARC. He notes, in particular, the lack of agrarian reform and land restitution, along with accusations that the peace tribunal, the HEP, has not fulfilled its duty. The HEP responded with some confusion, calling it a self-accusation, given that Petro is in fact the head of the state he plans to denounce. Inequality in Colombia is deepening, according to a new report by the United Nations Development Programme, measuring factors including income, education and life expectancy.

The report claims that human development has risen in the country as a whole, and that Colombia now qualifies as having high human development. However, regions like Valpés and Guainía have scores which put them in the lowest category. The regional disparity has widened over the last decade, reportedly due to factors including state absence and illicit economies. Colombia is also now considered to be facing acute food insecurity, this according to a different UN report also out this week, which considers key drivers to be climate change and civil conflict. The law on electronic cigarettes and vapes has finally been passed in Colombia.

Though they are officially legal, the bill contains provisions for campaigns to discourage usage, including packaging with health warnings, restrictions on advertising, and prohibited use for under 18s. Studies, however, suggest that as many as 25% of users are currently minors. The law also adds electronic cigarettes and vapes to existing legal provisions for cigarettes, meaning that smoke-free spaces will also become vape-free spaces, including workplaces, shopping centres and cafes. Before the bill finally passed, 15 versions of it had been sunk in Congress. Colombia has officially requested that Spain return 122 pieces of Quimbaya treasure currently held in Madrid's Museo de América.

The Foreign Minister and Minister for Culture sent a letter to their Spanish counterparts, saying that the return of those objects would be in line with international standards for the decolonisation of museums and would have invaluable implications for cultural sovereignty and the recognition of rights. The artefacts date back to the pre-Colombian Quimbaya civilisation of around 600 BC in the region now known as Quindío. The Spanish ministers have not yet responded. The Spanish government did last year announce a review of museums with a view to decolonise them, though in February they referred specifically to the Quimbaya treasure, saying there was no doubt about the legality of Spain's acquisition or ownership of the artefacts. In 1893, the Colombian government gave the objects to the Queen of Spain as a gift, though Colombia's Foreign Minister, Juan David Correa, backed by the Constitutional Court, argues that then-President Carlos Holguín had no right to give them away.

Since his mandate began in 2022, Petro has overseen the return of hundreds of artefacts to Colombia from countries including Spain, Belgium, Germany, the US, the UK and Mexico. In other diplomacy news, Colombia has congratulated the US on its decision to remove Cuba from its list of countries which supposedly failed to cooperate in the fight against terrorism. This is a list Cuba has been on since 2020 due to its refusal to collaborate with Colombia on extradition requests for members of guerrilla group, the Ejército de Liberación Nacional, the ELN, following their bomb attack on a police academy. Left. on that list of countries known as NFCCs are North Korea, Iran, Syria and Venezuela.

Countries on this list may face restrictions on certain types of aid and exports of defence-related goods and services. Colombia's Foreign Ministry released a statement celebrating the US's decision, but asking the government to go further and additionally remove Cuba from another list, the list of state sponsors of terrorism, currently formed of Cuba, Iran, Syria and North Korea. This latter list carries more severe implications, including broader economic sanctions and restrictions on foreign aid. And Colombia's Pan de Bono has been named the world's best bread roll by gastronomic guide, the Taste Atlas. Pan de Bono is originally from the city of Cali in Valle de Cauca, named after the hacienda El Bono, where it was first made.

This year's top 10 also included three other Colombian bread rolls. Pan de Yuca was ranked number five, Almojabana at number six and Pan de Queso came in at number eight. Those were your headlines for this week. Thanks for listening. And if you value these updates or want them direct to your email or WhatsApp as audio and text every Monday, you can subscribe to the Colombia Briefing.

Just sign up to my Substack at substack.

com forward slash at e-h-a-r-t, or you can sign up on the Colombia Calling Patreon site. That's all from me. Have a great week.

And, of course, everything that goes on there is directly influencing Colombia and vice versa. I mean, really, the two populations are very close indeed. And I can't remember how many Venezuelans there are now in Colombia. I think it's around three million. No, it's almost five million.

Oh, my God. I've been corrected already by my guest. I better introduce her. She's a political scientist, an absolute expert in all things to do with politics from Venezuela. I had the great honor of interviewing her for the Latin News podcast over a year ago.

Her name is Ana Milagros Parra. Follow her on Twitter. Look up all sorts of social media. She's got a great podcast as well called Amedias. And honestly, you've kept me informed about Venezuela.

So no, thank you for your time. You are incredibly busy. I don't want you to get in trouble as well, because we're going to talk politics and things are just a little bit challenging in Venezuela at the moment. So, as you corrected me, there's more than five million. Yeah, there are like 8,800,000 or.

Yeah, it's almost five million because I read it today because of the voters, potential voters there, because they did not allow Venezuelan citizens outside Venezuela to register to vote. But I didn't say hi to your listeners. So hi. Thank you, Richard, for having me. I really like talking about Venezuelan English because, first of all, it's not that dangerous for me.

I mean, the government usually do not listen to these things. And I like that other audiences are keeping me informed about Venezuela and avoid propaganda, because there's a lot of propaganda around the world with the company and the resources of the Maduro's government.

I mean, look at Iranian boats, Russian money, Chinese investment. When we look at the chessboard of what's going on around the world, Venezuela is a major piece on that chessboard. I mean, that's why we mustn't forget it. We kind of get the stories that make it sound like a cartoon.

You know, it's stories about Maduro and some lunatic thing he might have said, or tripping over or something like that. The things that don't go into reasons why we should care. And so that's why I've got you here. And I just think, I read this morning, I mean, that thing, that point you just raised about the government, or let's say, the regime of Nicolás Maduro, not allowing Venezuelans overseas to register to vote is a very underhand and very effective way of minimizing opposition votes. Now, let's just go over the basics.

We have presidential elections on July the 28th. Yeah, that's correct. I mean, presidential.

No? I mean, sometimes they have this, the LOPRE, it's this law that regulates the electoral things in Venezuela, it's Ley Organica para la Protección, something like that. It's the LOPRE, that's how we call it. And we have this article that says that you cannot register to vote or vote overseas if you're not legal in the country you're residing in. But they just used the very first thing in that law to only, and to send to Venezuelans outside their home country, outside Venezuela, they can only have visas.

If you don't have a visa and you don't have a legal thing to say that you live legally in that country, you cannot register to vote. But a lot of people outside of Venezuela, most of them, are refugees, there are people that they left Venezuela running from the political and humanitarian context. So a lot of them are not related, and a lot of them are with this permission that these countries, like Ecuador, Argentina, Colombia, they give to Venezuelans to then be able to work and live in the country, but it's not a visa. No, but you're legally in the country. Colombia has, like this TPP, it's permission to something like that, and they gave that to four million Venezuelans and they couldn't register to vote.

I mean, they weren't able to do it. I mean, there's a lot of institutional things, that the CENEC, which is the power, the electoral power that has to regulate all the elections, they're doing things with the purpose of not letting another Venezuelans to vote in either. I mean, even here inside the country, they are doing these things to do not promote the elections. They are like putting these centers for register to vote in places that are too far away, they're dangerous, people are not going to go. And they say, well, we don't have this system.

The system is down, so you cannot come here. Only, I don't know, let me give you a number to know how absurd Venezuelan government is putting these obstacles to do not have a free and fair election. I mean, there's almost 8 million, 7 million Venezuelans outside Venezuela. That's maybe 30% of the population, maybe 20.. I don't know.

I mean, I'm not a good at numbers, I'm a political scientist, but I read it today, 25% of the people that are eligible to vote, they cannot do it right now because the electoral council and their political, the government, it was noted, didn't allow it. I mean, they have only, I don't know, millions of people, only 508 they could register. I mean, they have the registration and they can vote outside the country. Only 500.. And we have millions of people outside.

And only like 6,000 of people, they were able to change their residencies so they can vote outside because they were registered inside Venezuela and they have this center inside Venezuela. Only 6,000 of millions of Venezuelans outside the country. And I mean, it's 25% of the people that can vote and they just kept that away from there. I mean, that's violating their political rights. because, I mean, there's no way and there's no law that says you have to close this mechanism to you for register to vote.

So there's a thing of millions of people outside Venezuela, they cannot vote. So only people here in Venezuela are going to participate in that election. And that makes it not fair and not free.

I mean, I think we knew it wasn't going to be free and fair, even from the local elections. And then, of course, if we go over it a bit, we had the opposition candidate, Maria Corina Machado. It was in 2023 that she was disqualified and in 2024, the Supreme Court, I guess it's all the constitutional court in Venezuela, whichever one, they approved it.

And then there was Corina Lloris, who was widely agreed, she's a philosopher and a professor as well. And then what did they do to get rid of her?

We're just, OK, that's the government thing, but that doesn't mean it's good and that doesn't mean we have to get used to it. So the first thing, the Venezuelan opposition, they made this primary selection to choose their candidate, the opposition candidate for the presidentials. I mean, that was in October of 2023.. You have all these opposition candidates. The government didn't want them to happen.

I mean, they didn't want that the primaries happen, but they let it because they thought they weren't, I mean, they weren't not going to be really powerful and that wasn't going to make something good for the opposition. It's like, OK, let them do it. But you're not going to do it with the help of the CNN, the electoral council, that by law they have to help it. They have to help every electoral event with the opposition. They have to give them information.

They have to give them the machines to vote. And they said, no, you cannot do it. They put a lot of obstacles and laws and things. I mean, you know, they weren't going to do it. And then the opposition, with moving and with agreement with.

the pressure for the people and the, I mean, the will to vote and to choose someone. I mean, more than 2 million. in Venezuela, they went to vote for Maria Corina Machado in the primaries that only the civil society did. I mean, it wasn't with the help of the government. It wasn't with the resources from the government.

It was an election that the people went to vote for a presidential candidate when the government didn't want to allow it. And then Maria Corina Machado won by, I don't know, 98 percent of the vote. I mean, we chose it. I mean, I say we because I vote there. It was my second vote in Venezuela.

So, you know, it was something to be happy about, because it's not every day that you get to really have a right to vote in Venezuela. No, I mean, I know I'm laughing, but this is not that funny, but I'm used to it. And then Maria Corina, she was, I don't know how to say that in English, inhabilitada. I mean, she was blocked from running for office. I mean, it was illegal for her to run for office, but it's not legal.

I mean, it's just something that the Supreme Court and the CNN said. I mean, it wasn't the CNN, it was the Supreme Court that said she cannot run for president. I don't know, she was corrupt or she said something 10 years ago that it wasn't good for us. The thing is that this tragedy changed there, but that doesn't mean we didn't vote for an opposition leader. I mean, it's not a candidate.

We vote for a leader that she can create. this tragedy because people voted for her and just guide us for, I don't know, a transition, maybe, or something to really gain our political rights back. And then she, because I think it was a good tragedy. to the moment where you have to register the candidate in the webpage and, you know, for the CNN, for them to be an official candidate for the presidential elections, they did not allow Corina Lloris. Corina Lloris was this old lady, it was amazing that Maria Corina chose to be like her representative for the election and they didn't allow her.

And that day happened, a lot of negotiations in the government, in the position, the government wanted to put an opposition candidate for us. They wanted to choose it for us. And they, like, kind of in negotiations and pressures with the opposition, they wanted one candidate from the opposition because they wanted, they knew they could control them and control the candidates. It's not, you know, you have, we have these figures inside the opposition that are kind of lame. They're not that firm in what they believe in, but that doesn't mean they're not opposition.

They're just a kind of a position. We are not that happy about it. But Maria Corina and their team and the Democratic opposition, they made some moves. And for some reason, because I know there are a lot of things that happens inside Venezuela, I'm a politician, they are not public, but they managed to get Mundo Gonzalez as a candidato tapa. Like, this candidate just being there for the name, but we have to fight for putting Nayoris or Maria Corina.

But we couldn't do it. But at the end of the day, we have a candidate, no? And we have, I mean, the opposition has this unitary candidate that all of them agreed on, and he's backed by Maria Corina Machado. Maria Corina is the one who's doing these tours around the country with massive attendance. I mean, that's something really weird and really odd here in Venezuela, because it had been years since people came out to the streets to go to a politician.

I mean, there was people crying, old people crying, kids crying. Why are kids, like, that happy to see a politician? Because they have been living under a dictatorship and a maritime crisis for so long that they're really excited about it. And this is something really hard to do in Venezuela, because, remember, we had this protest in, I don't know if you say protest in English, they have, like, yeah, in 2014,, in 2017, they were, like, really bad. I mean, you can look for it.

That's why Venezuelan government is in the International Criminal Court for Crimes Against Humanity. You should look for it, because they're not just a bad government. They're a criminal state. And I really feel free, I'm feeling free to say it, because that's not something I can do in my podcast. I cannot say it.

I cannot write it anywhere. I mean, censorship here and repression has been, I don't know, they've been increasing for a couple months because we are in an electoral year. So, yeah, I'm saying it because you have to, like, think about the gravity of the situation. It's really, I mean, it's really dangerous for the continent. It's dangerous for us.

It's dangerous for all the continent, because you have this country that has all these illegal and dangerous things inside happening, and that is spreading to all the continent. Now that's spreading the criminality. You have. a lot of things happen in Latin America because of the crisis in Venezuela. So, back to the elections.

Back to the elections. We have Edmundo Gonzalez, that's like the opposition candidate. Maria Corina Machado is backing him up. He's doing these tours and doing press. It's always been Maria Corina.

That's something I feel like. it's a really good tragedy, because that happened in other countries. When you put another candidate, because you know the rules in your country are not how they should be. I mean, you're not living in a democracy. So, you have to play with the institutional tools.

you have to make a change, and that doesn't mean you're not democratic, because you're not doing undemocratic things. You're not creating violence. You're not violating human rights. You're opposition, right? And I know there's these people that I really like to read about Venezuela, and one of them said, this is not just an election.

This is a movement for freedom in the country, and that's it. It's a whole movement. We are not just thinking about elections, because elections in a dictatorship, I mean, do not work how they work in a democracy. An election is just like this event that you have to manipulate. You have to put pressure on it, and for people to really go to the streets and participate, and make pressure against the government.

But it's not just an election, because they're not going to allow a candidate and winning candidate, and then the next day we have a new president. I mean, that's not how it works. The transitional process is really long, and I think things started to get really real after the elections. I think now they are complicated, now, are dangerous, but after elections, we don't know what the government's going to do. We don't even know what they're going to do tomorrow.

So maybe I'm telling this, and tomorrow Edmundo González, I don't know, has this, how can I say, orden de captura? I don't know. An arrest warrant. Yeah, an arrest warrant, and then we don't see him again, and he has to leave the country. That's some things that happen here.

But the government, they're not that strong as they show off. I mean, they're not, I mean, when I say we are living in this criminal state, I'm not saying it just because there are thieves or because there are bad people. That's a description of a type of regime that lives under politicians and people, that has these political positions inside the government, and that you have this mafia and these groups of, illegal groups, to say it, that do business with drugs, with gold, with, I mean, really dark stuff, really dark stuff, and they are all under the government. And you don't know how is the state acting, because none of their actions and public policy are for the people, but instead they're for this special group. they have to keep in line for them to govern.

I mean, there's not just a regular government. They have a lot of groups inside, so they have to keep them in line, and that's not easy when you are planning this tragedy and you have to keep governing, but at the same time you have to control your government and control everything inside your country to not stop being in these places, higher places in power, no? So they're not regular people, they're not regular politicians. We have to think about that, and they don't think with that logic. They don't think with democracy, with a democracy logic.

I mean, something that is a really new thing, because, I don't know, it's this narrative that has been going on like in the last five years, five days here, is about the Esequibo thing, you know, this, the Guayana thing. Venezuela had this, military bases in the frontera, at the border of Guayana and Venezuela, and they're doing these military things. They have like movements of troops, they approve laws, they made this election about the Esequibo thing. It's really manipulating the narrative of an external enemy, and I don't think Maduro will go to like an armed conflict or something, but I don't think it's something we have to dismiss that soon, because they are making movements, they are making institutional movements, they are making laws, they are making electoral events. I mean, the fact that we have like 4,000 men at the border of Guayana,

There's so much you just said.

I think I'll start with Edmundo González. He is the opposition candidate, and a little bit of background, he is a career diplomat. I know he was the ambassador to Argentina and to.

Algeria, and that he's, I think this is a phenomenal point you make, that he's traveling around the country with Maria Corina. Yeah, but that started today, that started today.

But I have to really be careful with the words I said when I'm in Spanish. And even in my ex account, in my Instagram, even when I'm in the radio, the producer always tells me, please don't say these words. And please remember the country we live in. Right? I mean, we are used to it.

But the censorship is,

I mean, I'm feeling it more now because we are in an electoral year. That's what I mentioned. And there's a lot of words I cannot say. And I have to cut a lot of my podcasts, because sometimes I say things that I shouldn't, but not because they're bad, just because they can't use that against me. I mean, something that happened.

that's really personal, but I would like to say it here for people, right, for our listeners and your listeners to have context. I mean, I'm someone that that I can write for international newspapers. I can, I have my podcast. I mean, I move of all the universities in the country. I mean, most of the states who talk about politics with the young people.

So I know that the people are monitoring the opposition. They know about me. And I don't know, months ago, I was in Merida. That's in the states that are close to Colombia. I mean, they're not close to Colombia.

They're like down in El Zulia, in Tachira, but in Jandino. It's a place where it's cold, should be cold. And we went there. And I remember Diogliao Cabello, which is the vice president of the PSUV. I mean, he's a really high ranking officer in the government.

He has this program that's a, it's called Mazolando. He's just talking about people and talking with propaganda and things. But he's an old ranking guy. He worked with Chavez. He's the leader of the ruling party.

And he has this paper and he was, OK, this person that is informing me that these people, and he started reading names and he said, Ana Milagros Parra, they're more dangerous than a shooting inside an elevator. We have to keep an eye on them. And I was like, OK, I was really scared. And I spent like two months without saying anything. And I was even scared to record a video for my Instagram.

And it was really hard. And we know we cannot say a lot of things. So we have to be more creative in how we say it and how we said, OK, this is a political right that was being violated because of that. And we have to really know how to say it for them not to use it against us. Because at the end, we have a lot of political prisoners.

And this is a lot of thing I wanted to say.

A lot of the work group, I mean, the group, the close group, Marina Machado, I mean, the people she worked really closely, the international officer of the communications officer, they all are now in the Argentinian embassy hiding from the government because they were with this political, how can I say? Arresto. It was an arrest. No, they did not arrest them. They have the...

Order de captura. A warrant. Yeah, a warrant for them, because they had to flee to the embassy. And they weren't one of them. We have a video of her screaming because the intelligence services, they were kidnapping her.

So it was a lot of violence against the Marina Corrina team and against people that attend their.

. With people that attend her protests and her meetings. And we are facing a lot of repression for the government, a lot of censorship. But even that, we are here and a lot of people want to vote and everyone's talking about Marina Corrina. I mean, that's something that I haven't felt in years, because people weren't excited about a change, because they didn't think it's going to be possible.

And they are knowing they have to participate in the elections and they know they are not free and fair, but we had a lot of work to do. A lot of work to do, but...

It's the first time you feel.

I'm feeling something different, but I think I'm always going to have hope because it's my country and I want to work for it and I want to live in it. And at the end of the day, I work in this. So I'm always going to have hope and I'm always not trying to get too excited about it because at the same time, I'm a Venezuelan citizen. I mean, I'm Venezuelan, but at the same time, I'm a political scientist. So I have this thing that I have to separate both and think, okay, I know, this is the best case scenario, but sometimes there is no best case scenario, but we have a scenario where we have these positive things.

I mean, when you speak about transitional events or a transition, so it's a long period of time. It's not just an election. It's not just, I don't know, a opposition leader. It's a lot of things that has to happen over the time. And you don't know where the transition starts until it happens.

And you see it on a perspective. I mean, you see it and you say, okay, I remember when this happened and this is the time where the transition started, but you're not going to notice it when this is happening. No? So I'm trying to think that and I'm trying to just point out the good things that the position it's achieving, because it's not easy to be opposition in authoritarian government. I mean, it's not easy and we don't have free and fair media either.

So think about doing a presidential campaign without going to the radio and not have access to TV and you don't even can go to a national airport. I mean, Maria Corina Martel cannot use a plane inside Venezuela. She has to go to every state in a car that you can see, that the car has gone through a lot. So I want to think that and say, okay, we have these good things happening. These good variables that I can count in my analysis and say, okay, I see like a possibility here.

And I see that the government is not that coordinated as they used to. And we know that inside the government, they're not unified. We know that they're not in peace inside. I mean, I don't know, two months ago, a month ago, we knew where Tarek Al Aissami was our.

former economy and petroleum minister. I mean, he was a ranking guy official inside Chavismo, a ranking high official in Maduro's government. And then he went missing for a corruption thing. And then he appeared to the eye or to the public a year later. And you see it now, he's a prisoner for the government.

And we're doing, I mean, we're seeing things that they're moving, they're like trying to answer to this political context. And they know how to do it. They know how to do it because it's another crisis. And this is just their day to day. They're not, I mean, they never are quiet and they're never really like feeling controlled over the whole country.

We have these parts of the territory that are not even controlled by the state. I mean, it's not easy to control a country like that. And now they have to face an institutional event that is in the constitution. and they have to face it because dictatorships, I mean, modern dictatorships, they're not going to behave like 20th century dictators. I mean, people have this, like this image and this narrative about dictatorships in the 20th century.

It's not like that right now. Modern dictatorships, they dress with this suit of democracy and they tried to use this narrative that they actually are good people and they are following the law, but it's not like that. So this is what's happening in the country. We live a lot of things inside that are not democratic. I mean, they're violating human and political rights every day, but this is an election.

And one of the most political capital, I mean, the most important political capital that a position has is the people that want a change. I mean, no one wants to live in a dictatorship and people really want to participate and people are excited and they are not really excited about the government. I mean, that's something we have to remember. Chavista government with Chavez, they had this, I mean, they tried to legitimize themselves by elections, because everyone loves Chavez. That doesn't mean he wasn't an authoritarian government.

He wasn't an authoritarian president. Please remember that Maduro is there because of Chavez. I mean, I want to point that out. And it's the same regime, maybe different with Chavez. They are not the same actors, but it's the same regime.

And with Chavez, we had a lot of elections and people thought that that is a democracy, that was a democracy. But elections, it's not the same a democracy. And a lot of people love Chavez and this is not happening today. You see that their bases are not supporting them and they are not relying on election. They're not relying on.

popular belief and they're not relying on the population for them to have legitimacy because they don't need it. But this is really important because you see Jorge Rodríguez, I mean, the vice president, you see the president of the National Assembly going to this campaign, things just after Maria Corina left. So it's really, I mean, they know she's dangerous for them and they know this process is dangerous for them. And they are creating these tragedies for not let all people participate and maybe don't do the elections. I mean, we don't know that.

The presidential term is six years in Venezuela, right? Yeah. Chavez,

They just pretend they are completing the objectives. You have the International Criminal Court investigation. You have even Petro and Lula supporting the opposition, because, Maduro, please, you're doing it really bad. I mean, even your allies are telling you to please let someone run. And that's why Edmundo is there.

They did not allow Maria, Corina and Corina Lloris, but at least Edmundo is there and he's a tool we can use. No? But Maduro, I don't think he's going to extend that or do a referendum, because he knows that electoral events are not that strong for him. I mean, they're not so positive for him. But we have to think something.

If Maduro does this mega fraud, I mean, it's starting, like I said,

in the July 28th happens, he has six months more of presidency. I mean, we will have to wait until January until this change of presidency or whatever is had to happen following the constitution. So there are six months that the government can do a lot of things. A lot of things. Well, Maduro is basically the president.

So there's something I don't like to do with Venezuela is think three months ahead, because this is a country where everything can happen. And that's why the country risk is really high, because we you don't, even you cannot predict that far away. I mean, more than three months. It's a lot in Venezuela, because a lot of things that happen in, I don't know, two weeks, maybe tomorrow. So I wouldn't think after elections, I want to think what the government is going to do right now, because I don't know, we have like maybe 80 days, eight days left to the elections.

And we don't know, 80 days, maybe we don't know what's going to happen. But I know, and we see it, that they're not that strong and coordinated as they used to. I mean, that doesn't mean they're going to fall. I just mean that we are seeing some weaknesses and that's OK. And that's OK.

he knows that he's got so much leeway.

You have these international allies that are helping you, like Iran, like Russia, like Cuba. But that's not that stable. I mean, that is something that can persist on time. It's always fragile. You have to really be.

it's like a house of cards. You know, it's really like that. That's how maintaining a criminal state and a terrorism right now is. It's like so. He, he, he has the tools, he has the power, but that doesn't mean you can.

you can give a hint or give something that can make changes. That doesn't mean we're going to have a democratic state or a country in the next year. But that means something can change. That's why maybe it's hope. But I know right now, when you do a like, a serious analysis for a client or something, something positive for us is that now you can write about the best case scenario.

and the best case scenario is we want we win the elections, or maybe that's when the elections happens, that's going to start some transition. You know, that's the best case scenario. The worst case scenario, we have a lot of them. And I like to play with the one that's in the middle. Like, I know that a lot of bad things can happen, but I don't want to be like a zero or a thing.

I maybe can stay in the middle and say we can have like changes inside the government, but that doesn't mean we're going to free the country. That doesn't work like that. And it's positive that a lot of people are thinking like that, because before that, all these opposition movements like Guaido, like the process, the process in 2017, we were the thought and the narrative of that moment is we are going to save Venezuela and we're going to have a democratic republic or a democratic system when this happens. And that's not how transition works. You have to wait.

It's really slow. Sometimes you have backlash. Sometimes you have this progress and then something happens and you have to wait. I mean, it's really long, but people are excited and people are organizing themselves and they are not caring about the censorship. They're not caring about the lack of campaign in public media.

They are moving themselves. And that's something that I want to point out, because it's really important and it's positive for the movement in Venezuela.

And I'm so grateful for sharing, you know, these personal opinions and personal anecdotes about what happened. But, you know, I was looking at, I was looking at something today. I think it was out of the Washington office on Latin America, and they said in the first three months of twenty twenty four, seventy thousand Venezuelans crossed the Darien from Colombia into into Panama. And I was up there four times last year. I'll be up there twice this year.

The total number of people crossing in that time period was one hundred nine thousand. Seventy thousand of those were Venezuelans. If, but if, and unfortunately, when the Maduro government extends their period in government, this number will increase again. I mean, and my my comment really at the end is, how come you're still there? How come you haven't.

I have to move from Maracaibo, Zulia. It's just the border of Colombia. Yeah. And I'm living here and I'm doing my job and leaving of my job. But that's not the usual thing for a Venezuelan.

We live under. I don't know how to say it. Complex, complex humanitarian emergency. Yeah. Complex humanitarian emergency, where most of the I mean, more than 70 percent of Venezuelan, are in poverty.

I mean, we don't have public services. I know I'm in the 10 percent. Maybe they can live like a normal person, but maybe I cannot have like running water for two days. And I'm a privileged person in my house in Maracaibo. They can spend days without water, without electricity.

So I understand, when they leave, they don't have money to pay a passport. The Venezuelan passport is one of the most expensive in the world. You have to pay more than two hundred dollars to get it. And most of them, I mean, you don't even have a decent salary. You know, the university professors, they earn like five dollars, I think.

I mean, it's a really bad country to live in because the state is not taking care of you and the state is not giving you the opportunities and the tools of the basic things for you to live a decent life. So, yeah, that number probably will increase. We already have more, maybe more, or we are just competing with this massive migrant wave of Syria. And we don't even are in an armed conflict. I mean, Venezuela is the only country that has so many Venezuelans around the world.

I mean, so many citizens around the world that it's not because of an armed conflict or some disaster. It's just because of political problems. So that number will increase because a lot of people are saying, if these things don't change after the presidential elections, I will leave. Most of them are young people. Most of them are people that are studying in the universities.

They are brains, Venezuelan brains. They can do something for their country and they're going to leave. Maybe they're not even studying. They just go walking through Colombia or they go to Peru. They're going to go to Argentina.

We don't know that. But there are things that we have to consider with Venezuelan immigration. is that a lot of bands, I mean, you know, the Trenderagua is a criminal band from here. They're expanding through Latin America and they are looking for Venezuelans and people that are really vulnerable, like specifically women and children, to do their illegal things and to join them, because they are really vulnerable. There's no state taking care of them.

Most of them, they're, not even have the legal documents. They don't have identification. They have to cross borders. And that's the only responsibility is Maduro's government, because they are not making Venezuela a safe country for people to live in. And we have to say they're not the sanctions.

I mean, it's not the sanctions. They're not. I mean, I don't know, the U.S. government, it's Venezuelan government, Maduro's fault. that almost 8 million.

I mean, today, I think the number changed and we have an estimated of almost 9 million Venezuelans out of the country. And the number keeps going up. I mean, they're crossing the Darien, they're crossing the border, they're going to Brazil. I want to say something. I don't know, I'm talking a lot.

I know I'm talking a lot, but I love talking about my country in English because that's not something I have to, I mean, it's something I do every day. A lot of children, they live in Bolivar, in Amazonas. I mean, they are the border with Brazil.

They identify themselves, as, I mean, if you talk to those children and you say, what do you want to be when you grow up? They say a cop, but not a Venezuelan cop. They have a name for the Brazilian cops there and they identify with Brazilian people because they're fleeing their territory and they feel safer in the border. And if you go to read about borders, you know that our territory, that really, I mean, they're not safe territories and they're not so regulated because of the nature of, because they're the union of two states. I mean, so just imagine that most of us that are still here, we have like one foot outside.

We're thinking what I'm going to do if this happens. Maybe I will have to be one of those Venezuelans that are in exile and they're talking about Venezuela from the outside. I don't want to do that, but I think it's going to come sooner or later. I know that, but I know I'm going to come back. I mean, I can study outside.

I can do a lot of things for my country outside, but I'm not this Venezuelan, that is, I mean, I'm not a typical Venezuelan. My possibilities right now are not the best, but I have public services. I have a job and I can eat and I can do things and I can talk to you and I speak English, but most of Venezuelans, they're trying to look for the money for everyday lunch, look for the money to pay education or basic clothes for their children. I mean, they have this gap. We have a gap of really poor people and really rich people and there's this middle class that doesn't exist.

I mean, you don't have these variables that you can check to be middle class. So basically, we're all poor by international standards, but the social and well, I don't know if a lot of your listeners speak in Spanish, you can go to my podcast because I have a lot of episodes talking about this. I mean, with numbers and specialists that have this humanitarian work and they have a lot of information about what's happening here, but basically that I'm here because I still believe we can do something, because I really like my country. I don't want to leave my family, but we always think about.

Thank you. Speak to me in English, but don't say this sort of stuff.

in charge of the military, pretty much saying that you are more dangerous than a shooting in.

I wasn't laughing, but now I laugh about it.

It's kept me up to speed. on Venezuela. It's accessible, sometimes very Venezuelan accent, it's okay. It's okay. Good for your practicing.

If you want to go to the Caribbean as well, Venezuelan accent really does mix up there, the Colombian Caribbean, the Venezuelan and everything else in Cuban, it all comes together, uh, Panamanian and all of that. So you could practice these things. But, as I said, again, Anna Milagros, thank you so much for your time and for sharing this really quite extreme, uh, account of events taking place in Venezuela. Thank you. Thank you.

No. So I've been Richard McCall here on the Columbia, calling podcast, episode 519, been talking to Anna Milagros Parra, political scientists, uh, the host of the Medias podcast, check out her Twitter as well. Follow her on social media, see what's happening really in, uh, Venezuela through her work. Again, of course, we are asking her to look after herself. And, if anything happens, get out of the country, please.

Uh, we'll take a break now. We'll be back next week with more, uh, information, uh, things about Columbia, Columbia, the region and so on. now. So, thank you for listening and listen to some advertising from our sponsors. Thank you again.

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